Rare late-season Eastern Pacific hurricane forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on November 21, 2011

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Tropical Storm Kenneth formed over the weekend in the Eastern Pacific, and intensified into a hurricane late this morning. We are well past the date for the usual formation of the season's last storm, since the African waves spawned by the African monsoon, which serve as low pressure "seeds" to get the atmosphere spinning and trigger formation of more than half of the Eastern Pacific's storms, are rare this time of year. Kenneth formed from some unusual wave-like motions in the atmosphere over the Eastern Pacific that were not associated with African tropical waves. Since 1949, here have been just three Eastern Pacific named storms that formed after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983. None of these storms hit land, though the 1951 storm grazed the Baja. If Kenneth grows stronger than a 90 mph hurricane, it will surpass Hurricane Winnie of 1983 as the strongest Eastern Pacific storm so late in the season. Kenneth is moving westwards out to sea, and should not be a threat to land.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Kenneth taken at 7 am EST November 21, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Atlantic's Invest 99L could become Subtropical Storm Tammy
In the Atlantic, Invest 99L, an extratropical storm in the middle Atlantic that is generating tropical storm-force winds, has the potential to transition into a subtropical storm over the next day or two. The storm currently lacks a well-defined surface circulation. If it develops one, 99L would be called Subtropical Storm Tammy. The storm is over waters of 26°C, and these waters will cool to 24°C by Tuesday, as 99L moves northeastwards out to sea. These water temperatures are near the limit of where a subtropical or tropical storm can form. The storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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129. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:57 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:


are you POSITIVE, lol. i want to add it to my tracking map...if you have the coordinates of where it was classified, please share =P

This is from Best Track:

Link

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
128. cyclonekid
2:57 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:


are you POSITIVE, lol. i want to add it to my tracking map...if you have the coordinates of where it was classified, please share =P


The NHC has not written a report on it as of yet, but when they do the coordinates will be there.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1721
127. SPLbeater
2:56 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I got it mixed up...The image I posted is of 94L, which was what was upgraded, not any of the 96L's.


are you POSITIVE, lol. i want to add it to my tracking map...if you have the coordinates of where it was classified, please share =P
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
126. Tazmanian
2:50 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Refresh my memory...?



i think it was in may
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114777
125. Civicane49
2:47 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

...KENNETH STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 111.8W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
124. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:45 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
TropicalAnalystwx13 do you think the 1st 90L will be upgrade

Refresh my memory...?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
123. Tazmanian
2:43 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
TropicalAnalystwx13 do you think the 1st 90L will be upgrade
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114777
122. SPLbeater
2:43 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
just read PDF file for 'Hurricane' Nate. very good analysis by NHC, nice decision to upgrade. Ships and oil rigs can make a difference!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
121. Tazmanian
2:37 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I got it mixed up...The image I posted is of 94L, which was what was upgraded, not any of the 96L's.



oh ok i new that was a TS all a long
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114777
120. HurrikanEB
2:37 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting Ameister12:

Oh yeah! I can remember that one.


So, we're really at 19 storms for the season? And the unnamed would have been Lee?Maria? ...I personally dislike unnamed storms, cause they mess with the order--2005 for instance- imagine if Wilma was Alpha like it should have been?
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1303
119. Tazmanian
2:36 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114777
118. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:36 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:



wil they upgrade 94L like they did 96L?

I got it mixed up...The image I posted is of 94L, which was what was upgraded, not any of the 96L's.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
117. Neapolitan
2:35 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
So 19-7-3. And if 99L can make, 20-7-3. And if the Florida storm is designated, 21-7-3? Cool...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13471
116. Tazmanian
2:34 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Another image of 94L(*).




wil they upgrade 94L like they did 96L?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114777
115. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:32 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Another image of 94L(*).

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
114. Tazmanian
2:30 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
i think we could see a lot more name storm added this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114777
113. yqt1001
2:29 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
After looking at this, Sean may have been a hurricane for 6-12 hours. A lot of changes this post-season seems likely. I guess it shows the nature of the storms this year, always borderline something (whether it's borderline hurricane/major hurricane or borderline even existing).
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
112. traumaboyy
2:29 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Humor OK. Foot Fetish NOT.


LMFAO Shen!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
111. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:21 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting Ameister12:

Very interesting. Thanks for the info.

Have you happen to hear if they're going to add the Florida Tropical Storm?

Not sure yet.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
110. Ameister12
2:15 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"Thanks to a reanalysis of storms that already have formed this year, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Storm Nate to a hurricane. The system emerged in Bay of Campeche and hit Mexico on Sept. 11.

The center also has upgraded a short-lived disturbance, which formed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in early September, to a tropical storm. That system will remain unnamed, Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday.

Forecasters at the hurricane center routinely restudy storm data to ensure their initial estimates of a system's strength and status are correct."

Link

Very interesting. Thanks for the info.

Have you happen to hear if they're going to add the Florida Tropical Storm?
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4905
109. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:13 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting Ameister12:

Oh yeah! I can remember that one.

There ya go.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
108. weatherh98
2:13 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
interesting enough that is great to know but umm jose was a chiuaua
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
107. WeatherNerdPR
2:13 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"Thanks to a reanalysis of storms that already have formed this year, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Storm Nate to a hurricane. The system emerged in Bay of Campeche and hit Mexico on Sept. 11.

The center also has upgraded a short-lived disturbance, which formed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in early September, to a tropical storm. That system will remain unnamed, Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday.

Forecasters at the hurricane center routinely restudy storm data to ensure their initial estimates of a system's strength and status are correct."

Link

Well, I didn't expect that.
Good Night everyone.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5638
106. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:12 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting SLU:


right, right

I thought it was earlier in the season. It look very similar it not better than the other storms that formed in its exact location.

Can you post the official word?

I also see that NATE was upgraded to a hurricane in the post season analysis.

See my previous comment before this one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
105. Ameister12
2:11 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.

Do you remember Invest 96L? It formed north of Bermuda and looked exactly like Franklin and Cindy, but its center became exposed shortly after formation? That one.

Oh yeah! I can remember that one.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4905
104. SLU
2:10 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.

Do you remember Invest 96L? It formed north of Bermuda and looked exactly like Franklin and Cindy, but its center became exposed shortly after formation? That one.


right, right

I thought it was earlier in the season. It look very similar it not better than the other storms that formed in its exact location.

Can you post the official word?

I also see that NATE was upgraded to a hurricane in the post season analysis.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4919
103. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:09 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Where did you find this information?

"Thanks to a reanalysis of storms that already have formed this year, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Storm Nate to a hurricane. The system emerged in Bay of Campeche and hit Mexico on Sept. 11.

The center also has upgraded a short-lived disturbance, which formed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in early September, to a tropical storm. That system will remain unnamed, Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday.

Forecasters at the hurricane center routinely restudy storm data to ensure their initial estimates of a system's strength and status are correct."

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
102. weatherh98
2:08 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
yea linkitup
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
101. WeatherNerdPR
2:07 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has just gained another system, making it the third most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, tied with the seasons of 2010, 1995, and 1887.

No, I'm not talking about 99L ("Tammy") or the system that affected Florida last month. It is a new storm that was identified between Bermuda and Nova Scotia.

Where did you find this information?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5638
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting SLU:


?? ..
u talking about the well developed invest they didnt name in july or august?

No.

Do you remember Invest 96L? It formed north of Bermuda and looked exactly like Franklin and Cindy, but its center became exposed shortly after formation? That one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Kenneth is obviously a very beautiful 105-110mph hurricane. Could become a major hurricane by tomorrow.


Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4905
woaah when/where

@tropical
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
96. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has just gained another system, making it the third most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, tied with the seasons of 2010, 1995, and 1887.

No, I'm not talking about 99L ("Tammy") or the system that affected Florida last month. It is a new storm that was identified between Bermuda and Nova Scotia.


?? ..
u talking about the well developed invest they didnt name in july or august?
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4919
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has just gained another system, making it the third most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, tied with the seasons of 2010, 1995, and 1887.

No, I'm not talking about 99L ("Tammy") or the system that affected Florida last month. It is a new storm that was identified between Bermuda and Nova Scotia.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554


notice location of kenneth also notice a very cold equatoratorial water temp.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
It's Bushes fault Hurricane Kenneth is so strong this late in the season.

Incredible, Global Warming, recession, Tarp, Stimulus,
Katrina, Poor ole President Bush it's all his fault.

Ya know who never is blamed for anything these day?

ONE GUESS?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WSI (Weather Services International)forecast a warmer than average winter for the south central and southeastern states but colder than average for most of the northern and western US.


read the full story on the link below


Link
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im BORED
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
I'm so glad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The sun is setting on Category 2 hurricane Kenneth, an exceptionally beautiful cyclone and the strongest tropical system to form so late in the season within the Eastern Pacific.











Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting Neapolitan:
Cat 2 Kenneth, now the strongest storm ever recorded so late in the season in the EPAC:

EP, 13, 2011112200, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1113W, 90, 973, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 30, 1010, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,

Incredible...

105 mph...Wow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Cat 2 Kenneth, now the strongest storm ever recorded so late in the season in the EPAC:

EP, 13, 2011112200, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1113W, 90, 973, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 30, 1010, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,

Incredible...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13471
Quoting washingtonian115:
Damn.I have to come up with better jokes.I think the one about Florida and Navada were the best one I've said.


Knock, knock.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Has anyone looked at Kenneth lately? Looks like his eye has popped out and is here to stay...



Very pretty storm if I might say.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
21/1745 UTC 28.5N 51.1W EXTRATROPICAL 99L
21/1145 UTC 26.8N 51.2W ST1.5 99L
21/0545 UTC 25.9N 52.0W TOO WEAK 99L
20/2345 UTC 23.6N 52.5W EXTRATROPICAL 99L
20/1745 UTC 23.4N 53.1W TOO WEAK 99L
20/1145 UTC 23.0N 53.8W ST1.5 99L

Anyone see a pattern here???? LOL
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Holding at 60%; probably cause they are not sure whether or not it will intensify into a frontal low pressure area oe a Subtropical storm.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND STILL
HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS...IT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS EITHER A FRONTAL LOW OR A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
NNNN

Its probably STS right now, like you pointed out they are just makeing sure it doesnt go compleatly frontal, if it doesnt and gets upgraded they will probably point out it was an STS earlyer than when originally updated during the post season. Ummm, did I confuse anyone else cause, I just got pretty confused by myself...
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Holding at 60%; probably cause they are not sure whether or not it will intensify into a frontal low pressure area oe a Subtropical storm.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND STILL
HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS...IT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS EITHER A FRONTAL LOW OR A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
NNNN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Kenneth is looking very well organized. I think it may be near 115 mph major hurricane threshold...


I just thought of this....
Kenneth might become a the strongest hurricane in the Epac this year....

No.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting yqt1001:
Kenneth is looking well.



Amazingly, there has not been a major hurricane in the world since Jova back in early October (Rina technically never officially made it to 115mph so she doesn't count).


Kenneth is looking very well organized. I think it may be near 115 mph major hurricane threshold...


I just thought of this....
Kenneth might become a the strongest hurricane in the Epac this year....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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