Extreme weather and climate change: a new IPCC report

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:48 PM GMT on November 18, 2011

Share this Blog
35
+

Extreme weather events are already being affected by human-caused climate change, and will increase in destructive power during the coming decades as huge cost, reported the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) today. The IPCC issues reports on the state of the scientific knowledge of climate change every six years, with the next full report due out in 2013. However, concern over the possible impact climate change may already be having on extreme weather events like heat waves, floods, and droughts prompted the IPCC to release their first-ever Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). The SREX report was divided into two sections: how human-caused climate change has already affected extreme weather events, and predictions on how these events will change during the rest of the century. Here are some highlights on how the climate has already changed, according to the SREX report:

- Globally, cold days and nights have decreased, and warm days and nights have increased (90 - 100% chance).

- In many but not all regions of the globe, the length or number of heat waves has increased.

- Some areas have seen more intense and longer droughts, in particular, southern Europe and West Africa. However, droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter in some areas, such as central North America and northwestern Australia.

- Heavy precipitation events have changed in some regions. There is at least a 2-in-3 probability that more regions have seen increases than decreases in heavy precipitation events.

- The historical data base on hurricanes and tropical cyclones is not good enough to tell if they have changed.

- The jet stream has shifted towards the poles, meaning that the tracks of rain-bearing low pressure systems have also shifted towards the poles.

- Rising sea levels have led to an increase in extreme coastal flooding events (66 - 100% chance).

- Damage from extreme weather events has increased. Increases in population and wealth, and the fact more people are living in vulnerable areas, is a major cause of this increase in damage. It is uncertain if climate change is partially responsible for the increase in damage.


Figure 1. Predicted return periods for 1-day extreme precipitation events that occurred, on average, only once every 20 years between 1981-2000. A decrease in return period implies more frequent extreme precipitation events (i.e., less time between events on average). For Eastern North America, a 1-in-20 year heavy rain event is predicted to become a 1-in-7 to 1-in-9 year event by the end of the century, according to these climate model predictions. The box plots show results for regionally averaged projections for two time horizons, 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2100, as compared to the late-20th-century, and for three different emissions scenarios--a scenario where humans emit relatively little CO2 and other heat-trapping gasses (B1, blue bars), and two higher-emission scenarios (A1B and A2, green and red bars). Humanity is currently on a pace to emit more CO2 than the highest emission scenario shown here. Results are based on 14 climate models that contributed to the 2007 IPCC report. The level of agreement among the models is indicated by the size of the colored boxes (in which 50% of the model projections are contained), and the length of the whiskers (indicating the maximum and minimum projections from all models). Values are computed for land points only. The “Globe” inset box displays the values computed using all land grid points. Averaged over all areas of the globe, a 1-in-20 year heavy rain event is predicted to become a 1-in-8 to 1-in-12 year event by the end of the century. Image credit: The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (SREX), 2011.

Here are some highlights of the forecasts for the future from the 2011 SREX report:

- A 1-in-20 year hottest day is at least 66% likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions, except in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where it is likely to become a 1-in-5 year event.

- For Eastern North America, a 1-in-20 year heavy rain event is predicted to become a 1-in-7 to 1-in-9 year event by the end of the century.

- For Eastern North America, a maximum high temperature that occurred only once every 20 years during 1980 - 2000 is predicted to occur between once every three years and once per year by 2100.

- Extreme high temperature readings that occur once every 20 years will increase by 1°C to 3°C (1.8°F - 5.4°F) by mid-21st century and by about 2°C to 5°C (3.6°F - 9°F) by late-21st century.

- It is at least 66% likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe. This is particularly the case in the high latitudes and tropical regions, and in winter in the northern mid-latitudes. There is medium confidence that, in some regions, increases in heavy precipitation will occur despite projected decreases of total precipitation in those regions.

- Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are at least 66% likely to increase with continued warming, and the maximum winds will increase. The total number of these storms is likely to remain about the same or decrease.

- There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas. Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, Central North America, Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil, and southern Africa are at particular risk.

- In some regions, the main driver for increased damages from extreme weather events will not be climate change, but increases in population and wealth and vulnerability.

Intoducing climatecommunication.org
For those of you seeking detailed information on the research linking extreme weather events to climate change, I recommend a new website dedicated to improving communication of climate change information to the public, media, and policy makers, climatecommunication.org. The group is led by Susan Joy Hassol, a veteran climate change communicator, analyst, and author known for her ability to translate science into English, making complex issues accessible to policymakers and the public. Climatecommunication.org has put together an overview of extreme weather and climate change that I find a helpful resource when I am looking for the latest research results on the subject. I serve on their advisory board, along with a number of leading climate scientists.


Figure 2. Still image of the Bangkok, Thailand floods of October - November, 2011, as seen on the inaugural episode our new bi-monthly Extreme Weather video series.

Wunderground launches new Extreme Weather video series
Wunderground now features a new, twice-monthly Extreme Weather video series from GREEN.TV, with the latest reports and analysis on extreme weather around the world. From droughts to hurricanes to blizzards to flooding, Extreme Weather will cover the story and the science behind the events to try to understand their causes and consequences. The Extreme Weather series is sponsored by Vestas, the world's leading wind turbine manufacturer. The inaugural episode, launched yesterday, features video of the great Thailand flood, destructive floods in Italy, the $3 billion Northeast U.S. snowstorm of October 29 - 30, the massive Bering Sea, Alaska blizzard of November 9, the Texas drought, and the launch of a new polar-orbiting weather satellite. Look for a new video every two weeks on our Climate Change Videos page.

Resources
For those of you who haven't seen it, my top "must-read" post of 2011 is called, 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?. Back in June, I went through the ridiculous barrage of extreme weather events the planet saw in 2010 and early 2011, and concluded: But it is highly improbable that the remarkable extreme weather events of 2010 and 2011 could have all happened in such a short period of time without some powerful climate-altering force at work. The best science we have right now maintains that human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like CO2 are the most likely cause of such a climate-altering force.

Wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, has some thoughtful observations on the communication of the extreme weather/climate change link published in earthzine magazine titled, Changing the Media Discussion on Climate Change and Extreme Weather.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 462 - 412

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


sup kori, haha


Not much, writing a blog on TD13-E actually. You?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yo.


Good evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


sup


sup kori, haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


sup
Yo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Congratulations! Excellent job. You have even created the opening scene for the next horror movie. ;-)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Congratulations! Excellent job. You have even created the opening scene for the next horror movie. ;-)



well, I don't like horror movies but I'm glad you enjoyed the video :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
WAHOO WAH!


sup
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WAHOO WAH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
My new creation. I hope you like it.


Congratulations! Excellent job. You have even created the opening scene for the next horror movie. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Oh hoooo hoo.So people wait till I get off the blog and then come back on?!!.Well I'm back on!!.Thus you all can get off now!!.






(sarcasm flag):HIGH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, don't even pretend like it isn't possible, Kori. :P
It is, but it's something I've deciphered for myself. No computer is going to think for me, especially when it comes to intensity forecasts. They fail more often than not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Also, Ophelia and Lee retired? Seriously? Most of Lee's damage didn't come from its existence as a tropical cyclone. I thought that was a large determining factor in consideration of retirement?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

*unleashes model intensity forecast hatred*

Oh, don't even pretend like it isn't possible, Kori. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's an outside chance the system could become a hurricane, as depicted by the GFS and CMC for several runs now.
*unleashes model intensity forecast hatred*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My new creation. I hope you like it.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mmmmm.Mmmhmm.I bet if a major hurricane hit a big metropolitan city be it Miami or NYC next year Doc will find a way to relate it to climate change.Lol.Eh hem..."Due to the recent melting in ice it has caused a slight increse in ocean levels there for causing the storm surge to be higher than that if the hurricane were to hit 30 years ago".(I'm sorry i needed a laugh.)But it's hilarious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wondered the same thing...Maybe the Canadians requested retirement of something since it hit Newfoundland?


Then why not Katia? That's very odd. But, it's preliminary, not official.

Edit: Nevermind. XD
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nevermind...My stupid friends pulled a prank on me and I believed it. XD


I was about to say, I'd have heard about that one.

Though, an announcement came out for Igor that it was going to be retired a week after it hit Newfoundland.

Irene is a no-brainer in being retired though.

Lee, more than likely, but maybe not.

Ophelia? Maybe, I never heard of any serious damages like Igor that it caused to the boys up in Newfoundland.

Those are some pretty well knowledgeable friends you got there to know about WMO and Irene, Lee and Ophelia. I was lucky when I was younger if my friends could tell you what Hurricane Andrew was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wondered the same thing...Maybe the Canadians requested retirement of something since it hit Newfoundland?


Ophelia never really affected Canada much, she did however cause torrential floods in Dominca, part of the dominion of France (or the francosphere), the most liberal country for retirements. I gave her a 40% chance of retirement because of the floods.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Nevermind...My stupid friends pulled a prank on me and I believed it. XD

(I feel like an idiot now for posting it on WU)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting cyclonekid:


Why Ophelia I wonder?

I wondered the same thing...Maybe the Canadians requested retirement of something since it hit Newfoundland?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Big news:

"In the months preceding the meeting of WMO associates to decide on the retirement of North Atlantic hurricane names this coming spring, early notes from deeply involved members indicate three names might be removed: Irene, Lee, and Ophelia"


Why Ophelia I wonder?
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Lunar effect on Global warming.

analysis of a Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) data record spanning 38.7 yr revealed an anomalous increase of the eccentricity e of the lunar orbit amounting to ? yr-1. The present-day models of the dissipative phenomena occurring in the interiors of both the Earth and the Moon are not able to explain it. In this paper, we examine several dynamical effects, not modelled in the data analysis, in the framework of long-range modified models of gravity and of the standard Newtonian/Einsteinian paradigm. It turns out that none of them can accommodate ?. Many of them do not even induce long-term changes in e; other models do, instead, yield such an effect, but the resulting magnitudes are in disagreement with ?. In particular, the general relativistic gravitomagnetic acceleration of the Moon due to the Earth’s angular momentum has the right order of magnitude, but the resulting Lense-Thirring secular effect for the eccentricity vanishes. A potentially viable Newtonian candidate would be a trans-Plutonian massive object (Planet X/Nemesis/Tyche) since it, actually, would affect e with a non-vanishing long-term variation. On the other hand, the values for the physical and orbital parameters of such a hypothetical body required to obtain at least the right order of magnitude for ? are completely unrealistic: suffices it to say that an Earth-sized planet would be at 30 au, while a jovian mass would be at 200 au. Thus, the issue of finding a satisfactorily explanation for the anomalo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting Seastep:
Man, system wants to develop bad, but shear is ruining that.

The tenacity is quite amazing and shear does appear to be lessening a bit.

That's a lot of energy hanging around. Interesting to watch.

Anyone heard from Levi with his record-breaking temps in Fairbanks?

Subtropical systems aren't affected by wind shear or dry air. It takes time for subtropical cyclones to form, and this disturbance is currently in its formative stages. I believe we'll be tracking a strengthening Tammy by Thanksgiving though.

There's an outside chance the system could become a hurricane, as depicted by the GFS and CMC for several runs now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Man, system wants to develop bad, but shear is ruining that.

The tenacity is quite amazing and shear does appear to be lessening a bit.

That's a lot of energy hanging around. Interesting to watch.

Anyone heard from Levi with his record-breaking temps in Fairbanks?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

This is one huge mistake that Spencer makes in a nutshell: there is no such thing as "cloud forcing"


What the heck? Of course there is a Cloud Forcing. The Cloud Forcing is how much energy Clouds would add to Earth's Energy Budget if all Clouds were subtracted from Earth's Global Energy Flows. Many papers and basic observations have concluded that the current Cloud Forcing is around 21 w/m^2. A change in this Cloud Forcing due to an external factor such as the Solar AA Index or GCRs would add a significantly more amount of energy to Earth's Energy Budget than CO2 or GHGs have since 1790.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting TomTaylor:
What's a GCR? and why does radiative flux allow us to rule out temperature? Temperatures have been found to be increasing throughout the troposphere, which lowers dew points, making condensation harder. How does radiative flux make this not true/not a factor?


A GCR is a Galactic Cosmic Ray that can be influenced by the Solar Magnetic Field, and by the Solar Wind.

It's not the radiative flux itself that allows us to rule out temperature as decreasing Cloud Cover, it is how it LOOKS compared to the radiative forcing and the radiative feedback.

Since the radiative feedback due to temperature changes is very small, as measured by the CERES satellite, and the observed radiative flux is much higher, then we can assume that the majority of changes in the radiative flux that CERES has been measuring has been due to changes in the Cloud Forcing- ie an external factor is influencing the total Global Cloud Cover.

I have never heard anyone claim that warming temperatures would LOWER the Dew Point. Could you explain the mechanism in order for this to occur?
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Times that be 23, and you will get to my number. :)


lol. i be there someday, im relatively new and not VERY active. but, idc about comments lol. i was posting that because i dont have any more chocolate stashed in my room....so im bored lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its not craziness, many of the models show it, including the highly reliable ECMWF and the poor performing CMC.


Wow. They all actually do have similar solutions. Wouldn't that be something if the scenario does play out and something like that does happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Look at the craziness of the 18Z GFS with it's triple Fujiwhara with a Nor'easter and two subtropical/tropical systems at 192 hrs...

Link

Its not craziness, many of the models show it, including the highly reliable ECMWF and the poor performing CMC.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
431. Skyepony (Mod)
Not sure if it will get a decent pass tonight or not but nice to see Windsat working again..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39398
Look at the craziness of the 18Z GFS with it's triple Fujiwhara with a Nor'easter and two subtropical/tropical systems at 192 hrs...

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
429. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT of the C Atl blob.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39398
New York and New Orleans are vulnerable in ways other large cities in North America are not because of their location / geography, which, ironically, is what made them viable as large population and trade centres to begin with. The same land features which make both cities excellent ports also make it extremely difficult to effect necessary evacuations in a timely fashion.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
427. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Skye,
Barefoot~ This part of your comment shouldn't have been in italics as your adding your own thoughts here...

Yes, I fixed it as soon as I saw the code was messed up.


I didn't think you'd meant to. I'd wandered off & back while posting all that.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39398
426. Skyepony (Mod)
Malaysia has raised the highest landslide alert. Leaning trees, cracks in buildings are a sign to flee. There's been problems with people cutting down leaning trees so the govt wouldn't evacuate them. Reports indicated such acts nearly always ended in deadly mudslides.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39398
Skye,
Barefoot~ This part of your comment shouldn't have been in italics as your adding your own thoughts here...

Yes, I fixed it as soon as I saw the code was messed up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
424. j2008
I'm out, my games on. :) I'll cheak in during the morning.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting SPLbeater:


ik what u mean by exciting basins. last year i was tracking everything in the Indian Ocean, SW pacific. i recorded Yasi, Wilma and more. was fun and i am going to do it agian this year. altho, the maps i used last year i cant find online to print out lol:/
SW Indian can be exciting sometimes, and they regularly get beautiful - and destructive - cat 4s there. I started tracking that basin in '06... before then I didn't realize how active a basin the Indian Ocean was.

Not sure where to direct you for online maps, though. I use a program I got a few years ago to track with.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
422. Skyepony (Mod)
Barefoot~ This part of your comment shouldn't have been in italics as your adding your own thoughts here...

The reality of it is, there's no way they'll get everyone out of harm's way. The city's location is the major problem, not the "if" this article mentions about future sea level rise.

I agree it's all a little close to sea level but they are talking about the affects of an Irene strength storm in the future...that it would be much worse than Irene because of sea level rise. Warnings would be put out..people are evacuated out of harms way all the time. The only if/could in there is if the ice sheets keep melting like they are & if expected further warming of temps happened blackout may happen.. Which is also dependent on our grid & energy sources in the future.



The report, commisioned by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, said the effects of sea level rise and changing weather patterns would be felt as early as the next decade.

By the mid-2020s, sea level rise around Manhattan and Long Island could be up to 10in, assuming the rapid melting of polar ice sheets continues. By 2050, sea-rise could reach 2.5ft and more than 4.5ft by 2080 under the same conditions.

In such a scenario, many of the tunnels - subway, highway, and rail - crossing into the Bronx beneath the Harlem River, and under the East River would be flooded within the hour (with an Irene type storm), the report said. Some transport systems could be out of operation for up to a month.

The report, which was two years in the making, was intended to help the New York state government take steps now to get people out of harm's way - and factor climate change into long-term planning to protect transport, water and sewage systems.

New York mayor Michael Bloomberg was so concerned that he went on to commission an even more detailed study of the city after receiving early briefings on the report.

That makes him an outlier among his fellow Republicans, who blocked funds for creating a new climate service in budget negotiations in Congress this week.

DeGaetano said climate change would force governments to begin rethinking infrastructure. Most of New York City's power plants, water treatment plants, and sewage systems are right at sea level.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39398
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 PM PST SAT NOV 19 2011

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 102.1W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Quoting SPLbeater:
this is #500 comment. FTW!!

Times that be 23, and you will get to my number. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
this is #500 comment. FTW!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
ATCF says tropical depression.

EP, 13, 2011112000, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1015W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 210, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
417. j2008
Quoting SPLbeater:


well, i aint gon feed you anything ROFL, but i give Tammy a 60% chance of developing out of the convection cluster, and a 40% chance of coming out of that low spinning SW towards Puerto Rico. and maybe i would say Tuesday morning at latest so i reckon that aint far from your prediction lol

LOL sounds fair enough....I'd say this season isnt neaarly done yet might get a couple more storms and then at season review we might get another one. JMO though.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting Skyepony:
Major storms could submerge New York City in next decade

Sea-level rise due to climate change could cripple the city in Irene-like storm scenarios, new climate report claims.


I hope people read the article, not just the sensationalistic headline. Lots of "coulds" and "ifs" in there.

Heck, a major hurricane hit on New York, New York a hundred years ago woulda crippled the city.

The report, which was two years in the making, was intended to help the New York state government take steps now to get people out of harm's way - and factor climate change into long-term planning to protect transport, water and sewage systems.

More than half a million people live in the New York flood plain, and, as the report noted, a significant portion of them are African American and Latinos.


The reality of it is, there's no way they'll get everyone out of harm's way. The city's location is the major problem, not the "if" this article mentions about future sea level rise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting j2008:

In a couple days I might start doing blogs on weather happening right now, as in TC's and other weather, those of us that wanna talk about that can mosey on over there when I get around to it..... SO... Kenneth should be here tonight or tomorrow morning at latest, and a 40% also in the Atlantic this evening. I expect STS Tammy by ohh say maybe Monday night at earlyest. Feedback anyone??


well, i aint gon feed you anything ROFL, but i give Tammy a 60% chance of developing out of the convection cluster, and a 40% chance of coming out of that low spinning SW towards Puerto Rico. and maybe i would say Tuesday morning at latest so i reckon that aint far from your prediction lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting BahaHurican:
No need to change the blog name. It says what it means right now. Plus we do get some fun discussing TCs that are not in our basin. [Remember SPac and SInd are currently gearing up for their season.]

This season has in some ways shaped up to predictions: early, often, and late being the key predictors. Aside from the relatively small ratios of hurricanes to named storms, the May/June predictions were not that far off, IMO, IIRC.


ik what u mean by exciting basins. last year i was tracking everything in the Indian Ocean, SW pacific. i recorded Yasi, Wilma and more. was fun and i am going to do it agian this year. altho, the maps i used last year i cant find online to print out lol:/
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
No need to change the blog name. It says what it means right now. Plus we do get some fun discussing TCs that are not in our basin. [Remember SPac and SInd are currently gearing up for their season.]

This season has in some ways shaped up to predictions: early, often, and late being the key predictors. Aside from the relatively small ratios of hurricanes to named storms, the May/June predictions were not that far off, IMO, IIRC.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Looks like I will be in Jamaica for a brief trip (mainly to the Kingston area) soon. My first visit there and I am looking forward to it. I'll have my iPad with me so will check in from the Big Island... Years back, Turks and Caicos was ruled under the Govenor in Jamaica.
That is some years back.... lol. I've never been to JA, though I did spend a couple weeks in PR some years back.

The rain seems to have given up for now.... but it's now warmed up a bit... not quite sure what wx factor would cause that... the back end of a front????

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728

Viewing: 462 - 412

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
39 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron