Extreme weather and climate change: a new IPCC report

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:48 PM GMT on November 18, 2011

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Extreme weather events are already being affected by human-caused climate change, and will increase in destructive power during the coming decades as huge cost, reported the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) today. The IPCC issues reports on the state of the scientific knowledge of climate change every six years, with the next full report due out in 2013. However, concern over the possible impact climate change may already be having on extreme weather events like heat waves, floods, and droughts prompted the IPCC to release their first-ever Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). The SREX report was divided into two sections: how human-caused climate change has already affected extreme weather events, and predictions on how these events will change during the rest of the century. Here are some highlights on how the climate has already changed, according to the SREX report:

- Globally, cold days and nights have decreased, and warm days and nights have increased (90 - 100% chance).

- In many but not all regions of the globe, the length or number of heat waves has increased.

- Some areas have seen more intense and longer droughts, in particular, southern Europe and West Africa. However, droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter in some areas, such as central North America and northwestern Australia.

- Heavy precipitation events have changed in some regions. There is at least a 2-in-3 probability that more regions have seen increases than decreases in heavy precipitation events.

- The historical data base on hurricanes and tropical cyclones is not good enough to tell if they have changed.

- The jet stream has shifted towards the poles, meaning that the tracks of rain-bearing low pressure systems have also shifted towards the poles.

- Rising sea levels have led to an increase in extreme coastal flooding events (66 - 100% chance).

- Damage from extreme weather events has increased. Increases in population and wealth, and the fact more people are living in vulnerable areas, is a major cause of this increase in damage. It is uncertain if climate change is partially responsible for the increase in damage.


Figure 1. Predicted return periods for 1-day extreme precipitation events that occurred, on average, only once every 20 years between 1981-2000. A decrease in return period implies more frequent extreme precipitation events (i.e., less time between events on average). For Eastern North America, a 1-in-20 year heavy rain event is predicted to become a 1-in-7 to 1-in-9 year event by the end of the century, according to these climate model predictions. The box plots show results for regionally averaged projections for two time horizons, 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2100, as compared to the late-20th-century, and for three different emissions scenarios--a scenario where humans emit relatively little CO2 and other heat-trapping gasses (B1, blue bars), and two higher-emission scenarios (A1B and A2, green and red bars). Humanity is currently on a pace to emit more CO2 than the highest emission scenario shown here. Results are based on 14 climate models that contributed to the 2007 IPCC report. The level of agreement among the models is indicated by the size of the colored boxes (in which 50% of the model projections are contained), and the length of the whiskers (indicating the maximum and minimum projections from all models). Values are computed for land points only. The “Globe” inset box displays the values computed using all land grid points. Averaged over all areas of the globe, a 1-in-20 year heavy rain event is predicted to become a 1-in-8 to 1-in-12 year event by the end of the century. Image credit: The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (SREX), 2011.

Here are some highlights of the forecasts for the future from the 2011 SREX report:

- A 1-in-20 year hottest day is at least 66% likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions, except in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where it is likely to become a 1-in-5 year event.

- For Eastern North America, a 1-in-20 year heavy rain event is predicted to become a 1-in-7 to 1-in-9 year event by the end of the century.

- For Eastern North America, a maximum high temperature that occurred only once every 20 years during 1980 - 2000 is predicted to occur between once every three years and once per year by 2100.

- Extreme high temperature readings that occur once every 20 years will increase by 1°C to 3°C (1.8°F - 5.4°F) by mid-21st century and by about 2°C to 5°C (3.6°F - 9°F) by late-21st century.

- It is at least 66% likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe. This is particularly the case in the high latitudes and tropical regions, and in winter in the northern mid-latitudes. There is medium confidence that, in some regions, increases in heavy precipitation will occur despite projected decreases of total precipitation in those regions.

- Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are at least 66% likely to increase with continued warming, and the maximum winds will increase. The total number of these storms is likely to remain about the same or decrease.

- There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas. Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, Central North America, Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil, and southern Africa are at particular risk.

- In some regions, the main driver for increased damages from extreme weather events will not be climate change, but increases in population and wealth and vulnerability.

Intoducing climatecommunication.org
For those of you seeking detailed information on the research linking extreme weather events to climate change, I recommend a new website dedicated to improving communication of climate change information to the public, media, and policy makers, climatecommunication.org. The group is led by Susan Joy Hassol, a veteran climate change communicator, analyst, and author known for her ability to translate science into English, making complex issues accessible to policymakers and the public. Climatecommunication.org has put together an overview of extreme weather and climate change that I find a helpful resource when I am looking for the latest research results on the subject. I serve on their advisory board, along with a number of leading climate scientists.


Figure 2. Still image of the Bangkok, Thailand floods of October - November, 2011, as seen on the inaugural episode our new bi-monthly Extreme Weather video series.

Wunderground launches new Extreme Weather video series
Wunderground now features a new, twice-monthly Extreme Weather video series from GREEN.TV, with the latest reports and analysis on extreme weather around the world. From droughts to hurricanes to blizzards to flooding, Extreme Weather will cover the story and the science behind the events to try to understand their causes and consequences. The Extreme Weather series is sponsored by Vestas, the world's leading wind turbine manufacturer. The inaugural episode, launched yesterday, features video of the great Thailand flood, destructive floods in Italy, the $3 billion Northeast U.S. snowstorm of October 29 - 30, the massive Bering Sea, Alaska blizzard of November 9, the Texas drought, and the launch of a new polar-orbiting weather satellite. Look for a new video every two weeks on our Climate Change Videos page.

Resources
For those of you who haven't seen it, my top "must-read" post of 2011 is called, 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?. Back in June, I went through the ridiculous barrage of extreme weather events the planet saw in 2010 and early 2011, and concluded: But it is highly improbable that the remarkable extreme weather events of 2010 and 2011 could have all happened in such a short period of time without some powerful climate-altering force at work. The best science we have right now maintains that human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like CO2 are the most likely cause of such a climate-altering force.

Wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, has some thoughtful observations on the communication of the extreme weather/climate change link published in earthzine magazine titled, Changing the Media Discussion on Climate Change and Extreme Weather.

Jeff Masters

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812. Neapolitan
2:50 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
811. GeoffreyWPB
2:40 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:
Hmmm...Is that a Batmobile by Reed?
Could he be?!!...


That's funny. I was thinking the same thing!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11166
810. Chicklit
2:37 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Hmmm...Is that a Batmobile by Reed?
Could he be?!!...
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
809. CybrTeddy
2:28 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


Me and my comrads? I think you may be referring to someone else, I don't chase after storms, I track them at home, unless they are in my city.


This Reed.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24044
808. Patrap
2:24 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Seems someone may have thought,,well..,


"nevermind"

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
807. hydrus
2:22 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


Me and my comrads? I think you may be referring to someone else, I don't chase after storms, I track them at home, unless they are in my city.
Lol...Probably Reed Timmer.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21264
806. SPLbeater
2:21 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


Me and my comrads? I think you may be referring to someone else, I don't chase after storms, I track them at home, unless they are in my city.


purty sure he means Reed Timmer, Joel, and Chris lol. have you read his book?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
805. SPLbeater
2:20 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Well, I believe that I found the LLC for 99L...



53W, 26N



hmmm, i was thinking more around 51.2, 27.8 for an LLC and the center you pointed out is a small vorticy spinning around it. but, of course, everything is possible lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
804. reedzone
2:18 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I'm sure Reed and his comrads are watching this set up. As they maybe making a trip back to Miss & Ala.


Me and my comrads? I think you may be referring to someone else, I don't chase after storms, I track them at home, unless they are in my city.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
803. GeoffreyWPB
2:18 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11166
802. hydrus
2:17 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I'm sure Reed and his comrads are watching this set up. As they maybe making a trip back to Miss & Ala.
That is one sharp trough...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21264
801. Neapolitan
2:17 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
UN: Concentrations Of Greenhouse Gases Hit Record (NPR)

"GENEVA (AP) — Global warming gases have hit record levels in the world's atmosphere, with concentrations of carbon dioxide up 39 percent since the start of the industrial era in 1750, the U.N. weather agency said Monday.

The new figures for 2010 from the World Meteorological Organization show that CO2 levels are now at 389 parts per million, up from about 280 parts per million a quarter-millenium ago. The levels are significant because the gases trap heat in the atmosphere.

- - - - - - - - - -

The WMO said the increase of 2.3 parts per million in CO2 in the atmosphere between 2009 and 2010 shows an acceleration from the average 1.5 parts per million increase during the 1990s.

- - - - - - - - - -

Since 1750, WMO says, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have risen 39 percent, those of nitrous oxide have gone up 20 percent and concentrations of methane jumped 158 percent.

Its report Monday cites fossil fuel-burning, loss of forests that absorb CO2 and use of fertilizer as the main culprits."


Full article
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
800. Minnemike
2:16 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
interesting read over the last couple hundred comments.. well, sort of..

peak oil is one thing, plentiful alternative natural resources abound... but NOT PEAK COFFEEE!!!
i'm planting my own tree today!
i hear i should have a couple pounds by the end of the year :P
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
799. Patrap
2:07 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
There are now 395 Giorni Days till the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Monday.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
798. StormTracker2K
1:57 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
I'm sure Reed and his comrads are watching this set up. As they maybe making a trip back to Miss & Ala.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
797. CybrTeddy
1:54 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol, well, Kenneth's rapid intensification was not expected at all, even though all the other storms have done it.

Sarcasm Flag: ON



Tropical cyclone rule number 1 - Expect the unexpected.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24044
796. RitaEvac
1:54 PM GMT on November 21, 2011




As Drought Continues, Depleted Texas Lakes Expose Ghost Towns, Graves


Published November 20, 2011

Oct. 5, 2011: A child's grave site, normally at least 20 to 30 feet underwater, has joined other remnants of old Bluffton, Texas, resurfacing on the now dry, sandy lake near Bluffton, as the Texas drought shrinks the state's largest inland lake.

BLUFFTON, Texas – Johnny C. Parks died two days before his first birthday more than a century ago. His grave slipped from sight along with the rest of the tiny town of Bluffton when Lake Buchanan was filled 55 years later.

Now, the cracked marble tombstone engraved with the date Oct. 15, 1882, which is normally covered by 20 to 30 feet of water, has been eerily exposed as a yearlong drought shrinks one of Texas' largest lakes.

Across the state, receding lakes have revealed a prehistoric skull, ancient tools, fossils and a small cemetery that appears to contain the graves of freed slaves. Some of the discoveries have attracted interest from local historians, and looters also have scavenged for pieces of history. More than two dozen looters have been arrested at one site.

"In an odd way, this drought has provided an opportunity to view and document, where appropriate, some of these finds and understand what they consist of," said Pat Mercado-Allinger, the Texas Historical Commission's archeological division director. "Most people in Texas probably didn't realize what was under these lakes."

Texas finished its driest 12 months ever with an average of 8.5 inches of rain through September, nearly 13 inches below normal. Water levels in the region's lakes, most of which were manmade, have dropped by more than a dozen feet in many cases.

The vanishing water has revealed the long-submerged building foundations of Woodville, Okla., which was flooded in 1944 when the Red River was dammed to form Lake Texoma. A century-old church has emerged at Falcon Lake, which straddles the Texas-Mexico border on the Rio Grande.

Steven Standke and his wife, Carol, drove to the old Bluffton site on a sandy rutted path that GPS devices designate not as a road but the middle of the 22,335-acre lake, normally almost 31 miles long and five miles wide.

"If you don't see it now, you might never see it again," said Carol Standke, of Center Point, as she and her husband inspected the ruins a mile from where concrete seawalls ordinarily would keep the lake from waterfront homes.

Old Bluffton has been exposed occasionally during times of drought. The receding waters have revealed concrete foundations of a two-story hotel, scales of an old cotton gin, a rusting tank and concrete slabs from a Texaco station that also served as a general store. The tallest structure is what's left of the town well, an open-topped concrete cube about 4 feet high. Johnny Parks' tombstone is among a few burial sites.

Local historian Alfred Hallmark, whose great-great-great grandfather helped establish Bluffton, said his research showed 389 graves were moved starting in 1931 when dam construction began. That's the same year Bluffton's 40 or 50 residents started moving several miles west to the current Bluffton, which today amounts to a convenience store and post office at a lonely highway intersection serving 200 residents.

Residents had to leave their ranches and abandon precious pecan trees, some of which produced more than 1,000 pounds of nuts each year. "It was devastating," said Hallmark, 70, a retired teacher, of the move. "They had no choice."

Other depleted lakes across Texas are revealing much older artifacts. More than two dozen looters have been arrested at Lake Whitney, about 50 miles south of Fort Worth, for removing Native American tools and fossils that experts believe could be thousands of years old.

The Army Corps of Engineers, which oversees Lake Whitney, is patrolling a number of areas that contain artifacts, including some rock shelters once filled with water, said Abraham Phillips, natural resources specialist with the agency.

At Lake Georgetown near Austin, fishermen discovered what experts determined was the skull of an American Indian buried for hundreds or thousands of years. It's not clear what will become of the skull, said Kate Spradley, a Texas State University assistant anthropology professor who is keeping it temporarily in a lab. Strict federal laws governing American Indian burial sites bar excavations to search for other remains.

No such restrictions exist for the nearly two dozen unmarked graves discovered this summer in a dried-up section of a Navarro County reservoir. Some coffin lids are visible just under the dirt. Crews plan to excavate the site about 50 miles south of Dallas and move the remains to a cemetery, said Bruce McManus, chairman of the county's historical commission. He said the area of Richland-Chambers Lake is on property formerly owned by a slave owner.

"This is a once-in-a-lifetime find ... and maybe the only silver lining in the ongoing drought," McManus said
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
795. StormTracker2K
1:53 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
These tornadoes could be very large and devastasting. I know it's a holiday weekend but this is something that bares watching. I've been saying this since early last week about this weekend's potential and the models seem insistant on this however the Euro on the 0Z doesn't show this set up as all the models show.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
794. StormTracker2K
1:50 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Could be one heck of a severe wx outbreak this weekend. GFS and CMC have been consistant with this. Perfect setup for tornadoes!





Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
793. AussieStorm
1:48 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Somebody say 'peak coffee'? Oh god, it's real...

LET'S get straight to the point. It's time to start preparing for the day you either can't afford, or worse, can't find ... good coffee.
An alarming piece that popped up on the internets in the past week has office workers wondering how they're ever going to make it through a day in a world without coffee.
Here's the theory: the price is being driven up, the author of the article, Zac Stone, writes and will continue to be driven up until the world's most prized bean will become a luxury item.
Driven up by "weather events, pest and fungus outbreaks, speculation on commodities exchanges, an unstable labor market in the developing world, and an unprecedented thirst for good coffee among a growing global middle class".
"The problem," Stone says, "is that supply has gone down and demand has gone up."


Supply has gone down? If you think that sounds like something to do with global warming, you'd be right.
The plant that produces the prized arabica bean in particular is notoriously fussy, relying on a range of corresponding conditions such as altitude, microclimate and consistent rain/dry spells to produce high quality beans.
Stone reports that those few areas which are suited to growing such beans (read "Colombia") are experiencing record rainfall, heatwaves and pest plagues.
As the climate warms, the devastating "coffee rust" disease is invading the Colombian altitudes best suited to growing arabica, whilst increased heavy rains destroy the blossoms before they can give birth to the beans.
And the mountains are only so high, Stone writes.
The result over the past three years would make any coffee fashionista cry into their cold-pressed - a drop in yields from 12 million bags to 7.8 million.
It's been 33 years since Colombia's produced such a poor result.
Other coffee-producing regions around the world also have their problems, says Stone.
"Global stockpiles are close to record lows," he writes, before casually lobbing in the words nobody ever hoped to hear.
Yes folks, we are approaching "peak coffee".
It could happen as soon as the next drought hits Brazil, agricultural scientists Peter Baker told Stone, as a tolerant, drinkable breed of bean would take at least 10-15 years to produce.
"In the long run, people will have to get used to drinking a bit less coffee,” Baker says.
Stone's fears are borne out in part by a report back in February from a UN commodities catch-up in which the executive director of the International Coffee Organisation was issued with a "please explain" over the rising cost of Arabica.
“The coffee market is being driven much more by fundamental supply factors than by investors," Jose Sette said.
"The shortage is in arabica, and arabica is going up.”
It doesn't bear thinking about, but if you think you can stand it, read more here.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
792. krilysa
1:44 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Morning everyone!

First time poster, very long time lurker. It is unbelievably muggy here in Houston this morning. I had to remind myself that this was November not May! :) I am very much looking forward to the cooler weather that will be headed our way in the next day or so.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
791. Articuno
1:23 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The season's (1..2..3..4..5..6..7..8..9)..9th hurricane. Will it become the season's 6th major hurricane???

I think it will come close.


PINHOLE EYE???
lol jk
Quoting Walshy:
December 3rd..south-east snow?

Why not like a week or two later?
(dec 12th is my b-day)
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2417
790. PensacolaDoug
12:54 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Go Kenny!


Who'd a thunk it?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
789. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:50 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
The season's (1..2..3..4..5..6..7..8..9)..9th hurricane. Will it become the season's 6th major hurricane???

I think it will come close.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
788. StormTracker2K
12:47 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
787. StormTracker2K
12:46 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
786. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:46 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
HURRICANE KENNETH:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
785. Neapolitan
12:46 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
ATCF says Kenneth is a hurricane:

EP, 13, 2011112112, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1091W, 65, 992, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 15, 1010, 175, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,

---and 99L is picking up wind speed while shedding pressure:

AL, 99, 2011112112, , BEST, 0, 273N, 517W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
784. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:45 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting WxGeekVA:


It seems that Kenneth took advantage of a small dry air slot and has been building an eyewall around it. True/False?

True.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
783. StormTracker2K
12:45 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
782. WxGeekVA
12:40 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol, well, Kenneth's rapid intensification was not expected at all, even though all the other storms have done it.

Sarcasm Flag: ON



It seems that Kenneth took advantage of a small dry air slot and has been building an eyewall around it. True/False?
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
781. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:37 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
SAB/TAFB came back at hurricane strength with Kenneth at 1145 UTC.

21/1145 UTC 12.7N 109.2W T4.0/4.0 KENNETH -- East Pacific

ADT is holding at Kenneth's current strength (65 mph):

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.0mb/ 55.0kt
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
780. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:24 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Lol, well, Kenneth's rapid intensification was not expected at all, even though all the other storms have done it.

Sarcasm Flag: ON

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
779. WxGeekVA
12:20 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Well, I believe that I found the LLC for 99L...



53W, 26N
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
778. GeoffreyWPB
12:16 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11166
777. Ameister12
12:14 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Kenneth did a nice bit of rapid intensification. Looks to be approaching hurricane strength atm.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
776. Cotillion
12:11 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:

See Occam's Razor.


Thought he was more going for a Pascal's Wager angle overall.

Anyway I'm surprised. Americans talking about Christmas and not one mention of Festivus?

Disappointed.

"As long as one is happy and not annoying me or others, I will respect their religion. If they try and force their viewpoints on others or deny science through religion, I will be quite annoyed."

Agreed. Fundamentalism though is the problem in that, not religion. Atheism suffers from the same problem (fundamental atheists are just as annoying).
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
775. Ameister12
12:07 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
I'm getting hammered by a pretty nasty storm this morning.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
774. GeoffreyWPB
12:06 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11166
773. trunkmonkey
12:01 PM GMT on November 21, 2011
The record cold temperatures continue in Fairbanks today, with a low of 36 below at 3 a.m., three degrees colder than it was on this date in 1969.

The coldest high temperature on this date is 19 below, a figure that the National Weather Service says is jeopardized by the chilly conditions. The low Thursday was 41 below, also a record.

This is the third day of record cold for Fairbanks for this time of year, though the temperatures are not close to the all-time records which occur in December and January, the coldest months of the winter.

The weekend forecast is for more cold weather, but the low temperatures could zoom up to 25 below to 30 below by next week.


Well this should influence the ice pack that has disappeared for the last several years.
That monkey will be in danger if this keeps up!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
772. GeoffreyWPB
11:58 AM GMT on November 21, 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT WINDS TO NEAR GALE-FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS NOT WELL-
DEFINED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11166
771. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:56 AM GMT on November 21, 2011
99L to 60%.
Why the special TWO for Epac???
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
770. CrazyDuke
10:23 AM GMT on November 21, 2011
My religious beliefs and opinions aside, I have noticed over the years that trying to argue reason with someone that is basing their decision on something other than reason to be a frustrating and ultimately counterproductive endeavor: The arguing just results in a stronger irrational belief. The more foolish the belief, the stronger the urge to justify it. The first chapter of just about any social psychology text usually covers this. And, while this is frequently notable in religious and political contexts, it is present in even such mundane, everyday contexts as the weather. *cough*
Member Since: February 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
768. VAbeachhurricanes
8:49 AM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah its nice here in San Diego, when did you leave here? I probably won't be serving until summertime since right now I can only work weekends with school going on.


2001, just in time for my dad to be in the pentagon when it was hit...

BTW he's okay, didn't mean to send out the wrong message.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6507
767. VAbeachhurricanes
8:48 AM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:

This is another problem I have with religion: many of its claims are inherently unfalsifiable. I mean, my family says demons can heal others in religions outside Christianity in order to deter people from god. What am I supposed to say to that? Then when I can't refute it, they claim victory. A bit irritating, but more amusing now that I'm used to it.


Everything in the realm is unfalsifiable, its just as unfalsifiable to prove there is no god. it works both ways.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6507
766. KoritheMan
8:30 AM GMT on November 21, 2011

Quoting SWFLgazer:

At some point, no one can avoid saying "I don't know."
Okay, what's your point?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 577 Comments: 20626
765. KoritheMan
8:28 AM GMT on November 21, 2011

Quoting TomTaylor:
there's no real counter to that except that it makes no sense lol.
This is another problem I have with religion: many of its claims are inherently unfalsifiable. I mean, my family says demons can heal others in religions outside Christianity in order to deter people from god. What am I supposed to say to that? Then when I can't refute it, they claim victory. A bit irritating, but more amusing now that I'm used to it.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 577 Comments: 20626
764. KoritheMan
8:26 AM GMT on November 21, 2011

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Wouldn't the logical thing be to believe in it?
See Occam's Razor.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 577 Comments: 20626
763. TomTaylor
8:24 AM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


dads military i loved san diego... was the best place on the tour. when will you get to serve?
yeah its nice here in San Diego, when did you leave here? I probably won't be serving until summertime since right now I can only work weekends with school going on.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
762. VAbeachhurricanes
8:20 AM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
Thanks for the tips, lookn forward to my daily tip tomorrow :p lol

And I work at Claire's on Cedros, my aunt's (Claire's) restaurant, its a breakfast and lunch place in Solana Beach, California, which is a pretty nice part of San Diego county so food is a little more pricy.


dads military i loved san diego... was the best place on the tour. when will you get to serve?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6507

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.