October 2011 the globe's 8th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on November 16, 2011

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October 2011 was the globe's 8th warmest October on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated October the 8th warmest on record. The top ten warmest Octobers since record keeping began in 1871 have all occurred since 1997. October 2011 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 19th or 12th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH).

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the October 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

A warm October with few extremes for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., where extreme weather has been the norm this year, October was remarkably normal. October 2011 ranked as the 33rd warmest October in the 117-year record. Extremes in temperature were hard to find, with no states recording a top-ten coldest or warmest October. Three states had a top-ten driest October--Louisiana, Missouri, and Iowa. Two states had a top-ten wettest October--New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Precipitation over Texas was near normal in October, making it the first month since February that was not a top-ten driest month for the state. Nevertheless, 90% of Texas remained under extreme to exceptional drought as of November 8, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The most significant weather event of the month in the U.S. was the October 29 - 30 Nor'easter that dumped up to 32" of snow on the Northeast, causing at least $3 billion in damage.

A weak La Niña continues
A weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures have ranged between 0.8 - 1.1°C below average during the first half of November. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.

Arctic sea ice extent second lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its second lowest on record in October, behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. October 2011 sea ice extent was 23.5% below the 1979 - 2000 average. Sea ice extent retreated to its lowest value on record during the second week of November, thanks in part to a powerful 943 mb blizzard that brought hurricane-force winds to the Chukchi Sea between Siberia and Russia, compacting and breaking up the sea ice there. Sea ice records date back to 1979.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season not over yet?
Both the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans are quiet this week, and we are well past the date for the climatological formation of the season's last storm in both basins, particularly in the Eastern Pacific. A major reason for the lack of late-season activity in the Eastern Pacific is due to the cessation of African waves spawned by the African monsoon, which serve as low pressure "seeds" to get the atmosphere spinning and trigger formation of a tropical cyclone. However, the four top models for predicting formation of tropical storms unanimously agree that a tropical storm will form in the Eastern Pacific early next week, thanks to some unusual wave-like motions in the atmosphere that are generating low pressure systems over the Eastern Pacific, similar to African waves. The GFS model is forecasting that we will get not one, but two tropical storms forming in the Eastern Pacific over the next two weeks. Tropical storms are very rare in the Eastern Pacific this late in the year. Since 1949, here have been just three named storms that have formed after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983. None of these storms hit land, though the 1951 storm grazed the Baja. Next week's storm, if it forms, is expected to move west-northwest, parallel to the Mexican coast, but it is uncertain if it might pose a landfall threat or not.

Jeff Masters

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377. cyclonekid
8:39 PM GMT on November 19, 2011
.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
376. cyclonekid
8:38 PM GMT on November 19, 2011
.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
375. cyclonekid
8:37 PM GMT on November 19, 2011
.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
374. Neapolitan
3:54 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
373. winter123
3:49 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Whoa, what happened? Our giant central Atlantic blob looks horrible today. The northern part which looked like it was becoming subtropical yesterday is now a naked surface low. And yet now it has ten percent? A little slow on the uptake, nhc... Seems like that front now passing Bermuda will destroy it tomorrow.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1786
372. flsky
3:49 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:
how about we not worry about it and let the Lord handle it? that is sure to come out positive :)



Or maybe we could just put our heads in the sand....
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1944
371. RitaEvac
3:47 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
December 4th showing Arctic Blast Blue Norther coming into TX. Way way out, but winter is a knocking at some point down the road
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
370. Patrap
3:26 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Liar's Dance

Far four winds blow
There's trouble and it won't go
I'd really like to help you but you know
Truth twist - liars dance
Money, money - greed, chance
Let's take a little more before we go
Cause we won't be back again
No we won't be back again

Trees cry - men bow
Kneel before the fatted cow
Let's take a little moo before we go
We won't be back again
No we won't be back again
Oh we won't be back again

Tell me Jesus what to do
A little time for me, and none for you
Just leave it to the lady who's sure
She won't be back again
I know she won't be back again
I'm sure she won't be back again
Oh she won't be back again
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
369. RitaEvac
3:16 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting greentortuloni:


Dodging...


If you are a green person meaning you live green, and I eat you, that means I'm doing the right thing, by going green






Sarcasm Flag:ON
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
368. SPLbeater
3:16 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:


Are these going to happen in the next 6yrs or the next 60yrs or the next 100yrs.

Jean Palutikof, director of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility at Griffith University, in Queensland, said the findings of the UN report would "not surprise anyone involved in climate science".

Professor Palutikof said it would take a while for the effects of climate change to become visible. But without action, she said, "gradually, over time, that signal will emerge with resounding clarity".

"If we don't do something now to prevent it, by the time we get to 2070, we will see the impact clearly," she said.


I am sure we humans are having an effect on our planet, but to what extent, I am uncertain.
how about we not worry about it and let the Lord handle it? that is sure to come out positive :)

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
367. greentortuloni
3:09 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


That's human nature silly not mother nature


Dodging...
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
366. RitaEvac
3:03 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting greentortuloni:


Sure, I really believe that's your attitude. If someone stole $500 from you, you'd be screaming mad. Kill billions, well, that's nature.


That's human nature silly not mother nature
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
365. greentortuloni
3:01 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


Nature's way of taking care of itself, if man is the problem, nature will fix it, by billions dead


Sure, I really believe that's your attitude. If someone stole $500 from you, you'd be screaming mad. Kill billions, well, that's nature.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
364. AussieStorm
2:58 PM GMT on November 18, 2011






Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
363. Patrap
2:55 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
co2now.org


388.92ppm



Atmospheric CO2 for October 2011

Preliminary data released November 4, 2011
(Mauna Loa Observatory: Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
362. Patrap
2:53 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
searching.. " Terra-forming a Class M Planet 101."

Ahh, here we are...,See "Earth" SOL System.


3rd rock out.


ADVISE Caution as to Bipedal Inhabitant's.

Class YV1A, Humanoids,

Violent, territorial, Industrial Phase.

Early Space Faring within System.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
361. Neapolitan
2:50 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


Nea, forget it, it's too late, starting now will have no affect. 5 years to reverse course? who comes up with this stuff

Just those silly alarmist earth scientists, I guess...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
360. RitaEvac
2:46 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting greentortuloni:


If you can't see it, it doesn't exist. Isn't that what the people who lived around the concentration camps told themselves?

5-10 years to the tipping point. Trillions in costs. Billions dead. If you want socialism or fascism, keep polluting.


Nature's way of taking care of itself, if man is the problem, nature will fix it, by billions dead
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
359. RitaEvac
2:45 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
active past 9 hrs in the quake reports across the globe as of now
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
358. greentortuloni
2:45 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


As I drove in this morning heading to the refineries you can see cumulus clouds being formed from the steam and whatever else is coming outta the stacks, actually see it all the time on clear mornings, where there are no clouds anywhere on the horizon except these odd cumulus clouds that are drifting away from the plant. Thing is though, this is a local isolated event, not something large large scale

In other words real clouds are forming miles away from the refinery due to whatever is emitting, but as far as global I can't see refineries affecting large scale weather changes


If you can't see it, it doesn't exist. Isn't that what the people who lived around the concentration camps told themselves?

5-10 years to the tipping point. Trillions in costs. Billions dead. If you want socialism or fascism, keep polluting.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
357. RitaEvac
2:40 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
We have less than 5 years of economic calamity, and rioting and chaos on the way
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
356. RitaEvac
2:38 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

The IPCC report--drafted by dozens and dozens of people--states that there is a 2-in-3 to 3-in-3 chance that we're to blame for the changing climate. Give me those odds in poker, and I'll sit at the table all day. ;-)

Seriously, though, the IEA report released just a week ago says that we have just five years to reverse course. But even if it is 59 years as Paltuikof says, shouldn't we get started now? If astronomers warned us of an impending collision with a 5-mile-wide comet several decades from now, we wouldn't sit back and say, "Well, that's a long time from now; let's wait until it's much closer before dealing with it." The time for action is now. (Well, okay, it was actually several decades ago, but, well, you know...)


Nea, forget it, it's too late, starting now will have no affect. 5 years to reverse course? who comes up with this stuff
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
355. Neapolitan
2:36 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:


Are these going to happen in the next 6yrs or the next 60yrs or the next 100yrs.

Jean Palutikof, director of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility at Griffith University, in Queensland, said the findings of the UN report would "not surprise anyone involved in climate science".

Professor Palutikof said it would take a while for the effects of climate change to become visible. But without action, she said, "gradually, over time, that signal will emerge with resounding clarity".

"If we don't do something now to prevent it, by the time we get to 2070, we will see the impact clearly," she said.


I am sure we humans are having an effect on our planet, but to what extent, I am uncertain.

The IPCC report--drafted by dozens and dozens of people--states that there is a 2-in-3 to 3-in-3 chance that we're to blame for the changing climate. Give me those odds in poker, and I'll sit at the table all day. ;-)

Seriously, though, the IEA report released just a week ago says that we have just five years to reverse course. But even if it is 59 years as Paltuikof says, shouldn't we get started now? If astronomers warned us of an impending collision with a 5-mile-wide comet several decades from now, we wouldn't sit back and say, "Well, that's a long time from now; let's wait until it's much closer before dealing with it." The time for action is now. (Well, okay, it was actually several decades ago, but, well, you know...)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
354. RitaEvac
2:33 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:


Are these going to happen in the next 6yrs or the next 60yrs or the next 100yrs.

Jean Palutikof, director of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility at Griffith University, in Queensland, said the findings of the UN report would "not surprise anyone involved in climate science".

Professor Palutikof said it would take a while for the effects of climate change to become visible. But without action, she said, "gradually, over time, that signal will emerge with resounding clarity".

"If we don't do something now to prevent it, by the time we get to 2070, we will see the impact clearly," she said.


I am sure we humans are having an effect on our planet, but to what extent, I am uncertain.


As I drove in this morning heading to the refineries you can see cumulus clouds being formed from the steam and whatever else is coming outta the stacks, actually see it all the time on clear mornings, where there are no clouds anywhere on the horizon except these odd cumulus clouds that are drifting away from the plant. Thing is though, this is a local isolated event, not something large large scale

In other words real clouds are forming miles away from the refinery due to whatever is emitting, but as far as global I can't see refineries affecting large scale weather changes
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
353. Neapolitan
2:31 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
FWIW, the link to Nate's TCR has been replaced, and he's still a hurricane. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152011_Nate.pd f
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
352. AussieStorm
2:29 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

I was surprised by the article you posted, as it seems to contradict what the IPCC report actually says. But then I saw that it was written by Graham Lloyd of The Australian, and my surprise faded. He appears to simply have done that for which he's become known in science circles: cherry-pick to twist the official conclusion to something more palatable to himself and, one supposes, his readers.

To show you what I mean, first look at this left of definitions as provided by the report:

Virtually certain: 99-100% probability
Very likely: 90-100% probability
Likely: 66-100% probability
About as likely as not: 33 to 66% probability
Unlikely: 0-33% probability
Very unlikely: 0-10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely: 0-1% probability

With that in mind, here are a few highlights from the preliminary report. There is a :

--66-100% chance that coastal high water is related to an increase in mean sea level.

--90-100% chance that sea level rises will mean more coastal flooding.

--66-100% chance that average TC wind speeds will increase.

--90-100% chance that heat waves will increase in frequency, duration, and intensity.

--99-100% chance that the entire planet will experience on average warmer days and nights.

--66-100% chance that man's activities have been behind these changes
.

In other words, the report isn't the noncommittal bag of uncertainty that Lloyd (and Watts, and Bastardi, et al) were hoping for, and are claiming it to be. To be fair, there is more uncertainty in a few areas than there are in others, such as the extent to which abnormal precipitations events in some locations can be blamed on climate change. But overall, the report paints a pretty dire picture.


Are these going to happen in the next 6yrs or the next 60yrs or the next 100yrs.

Jean Palutikof, director of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility at Griffith University, in Queensland, said the findings of the UN report would "not surprise anyone involved in climate science".

Professor Palutikof said it would take a while for the effects of climate change to become visible. But without action, she said, "gradually, over time, that signal will emerge with resounding clarity".

"If we don't do something now to prevent it, by the time we get to 2070, we will see the impact clearly," she said.


I am sure we humans are having an effect on our planet, but to what extent, I am uncertain.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
351. Neapolitan
2:04 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:
Review fails to support climate change link.

WIDELY-HELD assumptions that climate change is responsible for an upsurge in extreme drought, flood and storm events are not supported by a landmark review of the science.

And a clear climate change signal would not be evident for decades because of natural weather variability.

Despite the uncertainties, politicians - including US President Barack Obama in his address to federal parliament yesterday - continue to link major weather events directly to climate change.

Greens leader Bob Brown yesterday highlighted Mr Obama's climate change comments and said the extreme weather impacts were "not just coming, they are happening".

But rather than bolster claims of a climate change link, the scientific review prepared by the world's leading climate scientists for the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights the level of uncertainty. After a week of debate, the IPCC will tonight release a summary of the report in Kampala, Uganda, as a prelude to the year's biggest climate change conference, being held in Durban, South Africa.

The full report will not be released for several months but a leaked copy of the draft summary, details of which have been published by the BBC and a French news agency, have provided a good indication of what it found.

While the human and financial toll of extreme weather events has certainly risen, the cause has been mostly due to increased human settlement rather than worse weather.

There is only "low confidence" that tropical cyclones have become more frequent, "limited to medium evidence available" to assess whether climatic factors have changed the frequency of floods, and "low confidence" on a global scale even on whether the frequency has risen or fallen.

According to the BBC, the draft report said while it was "likely" that anthropogenic influences were behind the changes in cold days and warm days, there was only "medium confidence" that they were behind changes in extreme rainfall events, and "low confidence" in attributing any changes in tropical cyclone activity to greenhouse gas emissions or anything else humanity had done.

The draft report says "uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability".

Jean Palutikof, director of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility at Griffith University, in Queensland, said the findings of the UN report would "not surprise anyone involved in climate science".

Professor Palutikof said it would take a while for the effects of climate change to become visible. But without action, she said, "gradually, over time, that signal will emerge with resounding clarity".

"If we don't do something now to prevent it, by the time we get to 2070, we will see the impact clearly," she said.

The federal government's climate science adviser, Will Steffen, has acknowledged there is no statistically significant evidence that there has been a change in the behaviour of tropical cyclones.

However, Professor Steffen told the Ten Nework's The Bolt Report at the weekend that most experts agreed we would see an increase in intensity in cyclones as the warming continued.

The draft IPPC summary said if the century progressed without restraints on greenhouse gas emissions, their impacts would come to dominate. It said it was "very likely" that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells, including heatwaves, would continue to increase over most land areas.

It was "likely" that the frequency of high-rainfall events would increase and mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed was likely to increase.

There was medium confidence that droughts would intensify.

By Graham Lloyd is The Australian's environment editor.

I was surprised by the article you posted, as it seems to contradict what the IPCC report actually says. But then I saw that it was written by Graham Lloyd of The Australian, and my surprise faded. He appears to simply have done that for which he's become known in science circles: cherry-pick to twist the official conclusion to something more palatable to himself and, one supposes, his readers.

To show you what I mean, first look at this left of definitions as provided by the report:

Virtually certain: 99-100% probability
Very likely: 90-100% probability
Likely: 66-100% probability
About as likely as not: 33 to 66% probability
Unlikely: 0-33% probability
Very unlikely: 0-10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely: 0-1% probability

With that in mind, here are a few highlights from the preliminary report. There is a :

--66-100% chance that coastal high water is related to an increase in mean sea level.

--90-100% chance that sea level rises will mean more coastal flooding.

--66-100% chance that average TC wind speeds will increase.

--90-100% chance that heat waves will increase in frequency, duration, and intensity.

--99-100% chance that the entire planet will experience on average warmer days and nights.

--66-100% chance that man's activities have been behind these changes.

In other words, the report isn't the noncommittal bag of uncertainty that Lloyd (and Watts, and Bastardi, et al) were hoping for, and are claiming it to be. To be fair, there is more uncertainty in a few areas than there are in others, such as the extent to which abnormal precipitations events in some locations can be blamed on climate change. But overall, the report paints a pretty dire picture.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
350. RitaEvac
1:58 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
349. islander101010
1:40 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
watching the sw carib next wk
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4524
348. Tropicsweatherpr
1:10 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
First visible shows how 90E continues to organize in a steady pace.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224
347. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:49 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST FRI NOV 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Tropical Depression tomorrow night or Sunday.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
346. GeoffreyWPB
12:47 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST FRI NOV 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
345. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:45 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Another Severe Weather outbreak is poised to begin in northeast-central Texas during the day on Monday, spreading into the Southeast by Tuesday, Wednesday, and maybe even Thursday. There will probably be a fair bit of tornadoes associated with this outbreak, just like the last.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
344. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:34 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is that the one they removed? Cause it still not back up on The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Cyclone Reports 2011 page.

Yes.

It still here...and here, just not here.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
343. GeoffreyWPB
12:29 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
342. trunkmonkey
12:03 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
climate change is coming, so is the reverse polarity, this is just another coincidence of global warming!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
341. Tropicsweatherpr
11:51 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN ROUGHLY 900 MILES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH...A
TROPICAL WAVE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224
340. AussieStorm
11:33 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Link

Is that the one they removed? Cause it still not back up on The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Cyclone Reports 2011 page.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
339. CybrTeddy
11:16 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yesterday, the NHC released the Tropical Cyclone Report for Nate (and upgraded the storm to a hurricane in the process). However, sometime last night that TCR was taken down. Not sure what that means; I've seen changes made after release, but I've never seen the entire report simply disappear altogether. Stand by; he may not have been a hurricane after all.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2011atlan.shtml


Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
338. AussieStorm
11:07 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yesterday, the NHC released the Tropical Cyclone Report for Nate (and upgraded the storm to a hurricane in the process). However, sometime last night that TCR was taken down. Not sure what that means; I've seen changes made after release, but I've never seen the entire report simply disappear altogether. Stand by; he may not have been a hurricane after all.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2011atlan.shtml


Maybe doing a review of the report.
Will be interesting to find out.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
337. AussieStorm
11:06 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Review fails to support climate change link.

WIDELY-HELD assumptions that climate change is responsible for an upsurge in extreme drought, flood and storm events are not supported by a landmark review of the science.

And a clear climate change signal would not be evident for decades because of natural weather variability.

Despite the uncertainties, politicians - including US President Barack Obama in his address to federal parliament yesterday - continue to link major weather events directly to climate change.

Greens leader Bob Brown yesterday highlighted Mr Obama's climate change comments and said the extreme weather impacts were "not just coming, they are happening".

But rather than bolster claims of a climate change link, the scientific review prepared by the world's leading climate scientists for the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights the level of uncertainty. After a week of debate, the IPCC will tonight release a summary of the report in Kampala, Uganda, as a prelude to the year's biggest climate change conference, being held in Durban, South Africa.

The full report will not be released for several months but a leaked copy of the draft summary, details of which have been published by the BBC and a French news agency, have provided a good indication of what it found.

While the human and financial toll of extreme weather events has certainly risen, the cause has been mostly due to increased human settlement rather than worse weather.

There is only "low confidence" that tropical cyclones have become more frequent, "limited to medium evidence available" to assess whether climatic factors have changed the frequency of floods, and "low confidence" on a global scale even on whether the frequency has risen or fallen.

According to the BBC, the draft report said while it was "likely" that anthropogenic influences were behind the changes in cold days and warm days, there was only "medium confidence" that they were behind changes in extreme rainfall events, and "low confidence" in attributing any changes in tropical cyclone activity to greenhouse gas emissions or anything else humanity had done.

The draft report says "uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability".

Jean Palutikof, director of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility at Griffith University, in Queensland, said the findings of the UN report would "not surprise anyone involved in climate science".

Professor Palutikof said it would take a while for the effects of climate change to become visible. But without action, she said, "gradually, over time, that signal will emerge with resounding clarity".

"If we don't do something now to prevent it, by the time we get to 2070, we will see the impact clearly," she said.

The federal government's climate science adviser, Will Steffen, has acknowledged there is no statistically significant evidence that there has been a change in the behaviour of tropical cyclones.

However, Professor Steffen told the Ten Nework's The Bolt Report at the weekend that most experts agreed we would see an increase in intensity in cyclones as the warming continued.

The draft IPPC summary said if the century progressed without restraints on greenhouse gas emissions, their impacts would come to dominate. It said it was "very likely" that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells, including heatwaves, would continue to increase over most land areas.

It was "likely" that the frequency of high-rainfall events would increase and mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed was likely to increase.

There was medium confidence that droughts would intensify.

By Graham Lloyd is The Australian's environment editor.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
336. Neapolitan
11:02 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Yesterday, the NHC released the Tropical Cyclone Report for Nate (and upgraded the storm to a hurricane in the process). However, sometime last night that TCR was taken down. Not sure what that means; I've seen changes made after release, but I've never seen the entire report simply disappear altogether. Stand by; he may not have been a hurricane after all.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2011atlan.shtml
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
335. Tropicsweatherpr
10:55 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Good morning.

Here is this mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather:


Rob Lightbown on November 18, 2011, 5:08 am

We are keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather that is located about 900 miles or so east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. This disturbed weather is in association with a surface trough of low pressure which looks to be developing a surface low pressure system early this morning. Development into a sub-tropical or tropical storm is quite possible this weekend or early next week as it tracks well northeast of the Leeward Islands and well southeast of Bermuda.

The GFS model guidance continues to be the most aggressive with developing a tropical storm out in the central Atlantic this weekend while the European model remains much more muted on this development. Given the fact that we already have the combination of a large area of disturbed weather, a fairly favorable upper level pattern and run to run consistency in the models, I think there is a slightly better than 50 percent chance that we will see this disturbed weather organize into first a sub-tropical storm later this weekend and then possibly transition into a tropical storm early next week. Should this system transform into a named sub-tropical or tropical storm, its name will be Tammy.
Whatever that does develop from this disturbed weather will eventually be pulled northeastward into the eastern and northeastern Atlantic by about Wednesday of next week. It should be pointed out that anything that does develop out in the central Atlantic will not be a threat to any land masses.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224
334. Skyepony (Mod)
6:15 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
333. Skyepony (Mod)
4:49 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
ASCAT~ A little over 3 hrs old.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
332. SPLbeater
4:46 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
ok well my boredness is taking me out of TW so goodbye everybody. and remember, always use the intercom at walmart to say something stupid! :D LOL
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
331. Skyepony (Mod)
4:31 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Not trying to sound offensive or anything but didn't you also predict an El nino to form for 2011 and that never came to pass if memory serves me correctly?.


I had high confidence we'd see neutral & cross the 0 threshold to warm neutral conditions in the 3,4 region. That barely happened, but did.

Early on when La Nina was just starting to crash I gave an outside chance (low odds) for a peak of brief El Nino conditions..but not like your claiming an El Nino to form. That would take many averages of months of +.5ºF & above to declare. This was pretty much expected to go back to La Nina. They tend to come in multi-year events. It was a thin layer of heat/summer over a cold pool coming on. The gamble was always where the peak would be before winter brought back La Nina conditions. I think everyone that generally understands & discusses ENSO here agreed on that.

Even in the post you quote, I don't have any confidence in an El Nino forecast now..there's climo & Obs info..it may lean that way but cool east & hot west looks nearly evenly matched at the moment. ESPI today is -0.69, which shows a slow drift toward a little cooler if anything.. no switch has been thrown yet & with winter at the door, all I can say with confidence is La nina should continue for the next few months at least..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
330. SherwoodSpirit
4:15 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Did anyone notice this in the Weather Events window on the front page of Weather Underground?

"McGrath, AK set a record low temperature of -1000 for Nov 17"

Brrrrrrrrrrr! It's mighty cold up there in Levi-land! hahaha
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
329. TomTaylor
3:51 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr:
They look good.... Thanks Levi, thanks Tom for info.... saved into my anim. Gifs...

yep, for the natl, catl, watl, t1, and t2, there is rgb, avn, and wv available. For the eatl its wv, vis, and ir.


RGB of West Atlantic

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
328. KoritheMan
3:49 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater:
I want to go to walmart and yell "chicken is free today"into the intercom lol


That was the only good thing about my job today.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20429
327. SPLbeater
3:45 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
or ride the scooters around.


it is quiet tonight


be better if it was busy lol


i want some action


tell future Tammy to hurry up


same with future Kenneth lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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