October 2011 the globe's 8th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on November 16, 2011

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October 2011 was the globe's 8th warmest October on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated October the 8th warmest on record. The top ten warmest Octobers since record keeping began in 1871 have all occurred since 1997. October 2011 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 19th or 12th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH).

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the October 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

A warm October with few extremes for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., where extreme weather has been the norm this year, October was remarkably normal. October 2011 ranked as the 33rd warmest October in the 117-year record. Extremes in temperature were hard to find, with no states recording a top-ten coldest or warmest October. Three states had a top-ten driest October--Louisiana, Missouri, and Iowa. Two states had a top-ten wettest October--New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Precipitation over Texas was near normal in October, making it the first month since February that was not a top-ten driest month for the state. Nevertheless, 90% of Texas remained under extreme to exceptional drought as of November 8, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The most significant weather event of the month in the U.S. was the October 29 - 30 Nor'easter that dumped up to 32" of snow on the Northeast, causing at least $3 billion in damage.

A weak La Niña continues
A weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures have ranged between 0.8 - 1.1°C below average during the first half of November. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.

Arctic sea ice extent second lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its second lowest on record in October, behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. October 2011 sea ice extent was 23.5% below the 1979 - 2000 average. Sea ice extent retreated to its lowest value on record during the second week of November, thanks in part to a powerful 943 mb blizzard that brought hurricane-force winds to the Chukchi Sea between Siberia and Russia, compacting and breaking up the sea ice there. Sea ice records date back to 1979.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season not over yet?
Both the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans are quiet this week, and we are well past the date for the climatological formation of the season's last storm in both basins, particularly in the Eastern Pacific. A major reason for the lack of late-season activity in the Eastern Pacific is due to the cessation of African waves spawned by the African monsoon, which serve as low pressure "seeds" to get the atmosphere spinning and trigger formation of a tropical cyclone. However, the four top models for predicting formation of tropical storms unanimously agree that a tropical storm will form in the Eastern Pacific early next week, thanks to some unusual wave-like motions in the atmosphere that are generating low pressure systems over the Eastern Pacific, similar to African waves. The GFS model is forecasting that we will get not one, but two tropical storms forming in the Eastern Pacific over the next two weeks. Tropical storms are very rare in the Eastern Pacific this late in the year. Since 1949, here have been just three named storms that have formed after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983. None of these storms hit land, though the 1951 storm grazed the Baja. Next week's storm, if it forms, is expected to move west-northwest, parallel to the Mexican coast, but it is uncertain if it might pose a landfall threat or not.

Jeff Masters

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The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southeastern Cherokee County in north central Georgia
northern Cobb County in north central Georgia
northeastern Fulton County in north central Georgia

* until 145 PM EST

* at 104 PM EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Kennesaw...
moving northeast at 45 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Woodstock... Mountain Park... Alpharetta and Milton.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means
that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may
already be on the ground... or is expected to develop shortly. If you
are in the path of this dangerous storm... move indoors and to a
basement or interior room on the ground floor. Stay away from
windows. If driving... do not seek shelter under a Highway overpass.

If you see wind damage... large hail or significant flooding... wait
until after the storm has passed... and then call the National Weather
Service toll free at 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST Wednesday evening
for northern Georgia.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
/16/2011 1102 am

1 miles WSW of Montgomery, Montgomery County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Trees down in the Cloverdale section of Montgomery.
Possible tornado
. Time estimated from radar.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CST WED NOV 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL GA...FL PANHANDLE...SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 161817Z - 162015Z

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM ERN TN ACROSS NRN GA AND INTO
SERN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AT 18Z...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE
STORMS CLUSTERED OVER E CNTRL AL WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES.

WSWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS NEAR 50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ONGOING SEVERE CONVECTION AS IT TRAVELS EWD ACROSS GA AND INTO SC.
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHER CELLS WERE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER FAR SERN AL...SWRN GA
AND OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH
PROGGED NOSE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS.
DEEP MOIST ADVECTION...AS WELL AS POCKETS OF HEATING...WILL CONTINUE
TO PRIME THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS MIGHT BOTH ALLOW
FOR NEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...AS WELL AS HELP
IN INTENSIFYING THE ONGOING STORMS.

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Quoting PlazaRed:
Reply to:-43. Cotillion.
I have no linkable evidence on the UK's warm November. I saw several mentions to it on the BBC weather forecasts here.
Also the general surroundings in this area of West Yorkshire where I am this winter are showing signs of a delayed onset of winter appearances, leaves still on some trees and not one frost has been observed here, although there have been some chilly mornings. I have over 30 years experience in this area and to me things seem generally warmer than I remember. Other people in the area are saying the same things.
Are you in the UK?

In Sweden, usually half the country is covered with snow this time of year but last week all SMHI’s stations reported free from snow and it has never ever happened before since the records began in 1904, according to SMHI - Sweden's Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. It's unique.

Normal first day with snow cover, mean

Hover over a date to show the observed snow depth in cm.
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Tornadoes and people on here talking about GW go figure.

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The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southeastern Chambers County in east central Alabama...
northeastern Lee County in east central Alabama...

* until 1245 PM CST

* at 1217 PM CST... trained weather spotters reported a tornado near
Opelika. Doppler radar showed this tornado moving northeast at 45
mph.

* Locations impacted include...
valley... Lanett... Beans Mill... Cusseta... Huguley... Fairfax...
Bartletts Ferry dam and I 85 welcome center at Lanett.

This includes...
Interstate 85 exit numbers 64 through 79...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

To repeat... confirmed damage has been reported in the city of Auburn
from this storm. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Take
cover now!

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Possible Tornado moving thru or Near Auburn University....OMG.


Via Twitter:
CNNweather CNN Weather Center
by cnnbrk
Confirmed #tornado damage is now being reported in Auburn, AL.
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Possible Tornado moving thru or Near Auburn University....OMG.
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Quoting FFtrombi:


Well. Warmer than normal temperatures in the arctic = still under the freezing point of sea water at that time of year.

Winds factor into sea ice as well, could be the steep increase of sea ice was caused by divergence of the ice pack, which in combination with freezing temps can increase the area of sea ice quickly.


True, I just figure if the temps are 3-4C above average that the amount of time it would take the water to freeze would take much longer.
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Quoting Cotillion:


It's lower than the average according to that graph.


yes the ice area is, however the increase in area is greater than average.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:

Can someone tell me how a much larger increase in ice than normal can occur during a time of much warmer temperatures than normal?


Well. Warmer than normal temperatures in the arctic = still under the freezing point of sea water at that time of year.

Winds factor into sea ice as well, could be the steep increase of sea ice was caused by divergence of the ice pack, which in combination with freezing temps can increase the area of sea ice quickly.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Can someone tell me how a much larger increase in ice than normal can occur during a time of much warmer temperatures than normal?


It's lower than the average according to that graph.
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Can someone tell me how a much larger increase in ice than normal can occur during a time of much warmer temperatures than normal?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Both?


They can't both be right. The entire land of Greenland is 5C below average in the second one, where in the first one its a mix between above and below average. Plus look at Northeastern Canada, and Central Europe.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
So which image is right?





Both?
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So which image is right?



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EPAC may have a development as Dr Masters said.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST WED NOV 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14012
Quoting PlazaRed:
Reply to:-43. Cotillion.
I have no linkable evidence on the UK's warm November. I saw several mentions to it on the BBC weather forecasts here.
Also the general surroundings in this area of West Yorkshire where I am this winter are showing signs of a delayed onset of winter appearances, leaves still on some trees and not one frost has been observed here, although there have been some chilly mornings. I have over 30 years experience in this area and to me things seem generally warmer than I remember. Other people in the area are saying the same things.
Are you in the UK?


Yes. Not far from you, actually.

It is probably warmer than 20-30 years ago (things have got milder in autumns, though the summer hasn't been warmer. Almost like a move to equalisation of the seasons). It is probably a little above average, but this November is quite similar to last year's.

Not seen a frost either.
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Reply to:-43. Cotillion.
I have no linkable evidence on the UK's warm November. I saw several mentions to it on the BBC weather forecasts here.
Also the general surroundings in this area of West Yorkshire where I am this winter are showing signs of a delayed onset of winter appearances, leaves still on some trees and not one frost has been observed here, although there have been some chilly mornings. I have over 30 years experience in this area and to me things seem generally warmer than I remember. Other people in the area are saying the same things.
Are you in the UK?
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You know ya been away too long when you check back in and Rufus is the one making sense. ;)  Lol.   Thumbs up Rufus! Important stuff.

Still hot and humid here in SETX. Although I must say the mosquitoes are doing just fine. They have apparently mutated into  a drought resistant strain. Sigh.

Rough weather out there. Stay safe everyone.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
SPC just extended the slight risk area more to the North and West...now stretches further into VA and goes westward to NC/TN border.

Link To SPC


yep see that, looking forward to some nice thunderstorms.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Maybe we need another super-eruption to cool the planet down and lower the worlds population, If not, I wouldn't be surprised if we see lower and lower sea ice levels in the Arctic in the years to come.

Btw, I know a global cooling could take a few years to take effect after any such eruption.

Goodnight All. Enjoy your Wednesday. I did mine.


Lol.

Now I've heard some comments in my time, but that really made me laugh.

Best way to combat global warming: Let's set off a supervolcano! Brilliant.
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SPC just extended the slight risk area more to the North and West...now stretches further into VA and goes westward to NC/TN border.

Link To SPC
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting Cotillion:


I'm aware of the Toba supereruption and the bottleneck theory.

I'm just wondering what that has to do with anything.

Maybe we need another super-eruption to cool the planet down and lower the worlds population, If not, I wouldn't be surprised if we see lower and lower sea ice levels in the Arctic in the years to come.

Btw, I know a global cooling could take a few years to take effect after any such eruption.

Goodnight All. Enjoy your Wednesday. I did mine.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting FatPenguin:


Heat-island effect does exist, but has already been researched, factored in, and discounted as a reason GLOBAL temps are warmer than normal. However, if you need that life raft, go ahead and cling to it.


So called experts need to go back and research again
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Quoting RitaEvac:


I know....instrumentation is much more advanced now and the last few decades than in the past. Also believe heat island effects are causing a lot of this, concrete and bldgs which is man made. Instrumentation is surrounded by all this now


Heat-island effect does exist, but has already been researched, factored in, and discounted as a reason GLOBAL temps are warmer than normal. However, if you need that life raft, go ahead and cling to it.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Read for yourself.
Link


I'm aware of the Toba supereruption and the bottleneck theory.

I'm just wondering what that has to do with anything.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

The records go back 62 years, but, yes, certainly many were missed before then. But it's not likely many/any have been missed in the time since; after all, the EPAC contains many well-traveled shipping lanes, and for the most part it's all close to land.

Yes, we have. The human race was nearly wiped off the face of the earth by the eruption of Mount Toba, which caused a global change in temps of between 2.C to 5.C--which should provide an answer to those who ask how warming of just a few degrees can possibly have any effect on anything...

Wouldn't those shipping lanes in the EPAC been more in use before 1949, and if so, wouldn't ship obs show possible storms in the EPAC. Could it become a point of research?

Btw, Toba did lower global temps by 2C-5C and create a volcanic winter that caused the death of 60% of the worlds population which was estimated to be 6Mil.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting AussieStorm:
With records going back just over 50years, I'm guessing there has been more than 3 late November Storms in the EPAC, just that no one ever saw them or reported them.

The records go back 62 years, but, yes, certainly many were missed before then. But it's not likely many/any have been missed in the time since; after all, the EPAC contains many well-traveled shipping lanes, and for the most part it's all close to land.
Quoting AussieStorm:
By the way, Has anyone brought up the topic of Lake Toba, Indonesia and the effect it had on the globe for about 2000-5000yrs?

Yes, we have. The human race was nearly wiped off the face of the earth by the eruption of Mount Toba, which caused a global change in temps of between 2.C to 5.C--which should provide an answer to those who ask how warming of just a few degrees can possibly have any effect on anything...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13457
Quoting Cotillion:


Possible in the EPac, The records are nowhere near as good as those in the Atlantic. Proper ones only really started in the late 60s.

And what has Toba got to do with anything...?


Read for yourself.
Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932

FBI Joins Shooting Investigation After Bullet Hits White House Window


Published November 16, 2011
WASHINGTON – The U.S. Secret Service has brought in the FBI for an investigation into a shooting that occurred near the White House Friday, as law enforcement discover multiple bullets at the scene and the primary suspect remains on the loose.

According to a Secret Service statement Wednesday, law enforcement found a bullet that smashed a window at the White House before being stopped by a second layer of "ballistic glass." Another round was found outside the White House. The Secret Service said the damage "has not been conclusively connected" to the shooting.


Shown here is Oscar Ortega, whom police suspect of being involved in a shooting near the White House.

"An assessment of the exterior of the White House is ongoing," the Secret Service said.

Fox News has learned that the FBI joined the investigation on Tuesday at the request of the Secret Service and U.S. Park Police. The FBI has extensive expertise in evidence gathering, which could explain why the agency was called in to assist.

Law enforcement continue to search for the suspect, 21-year-old Oscar Ortega-Hernandez. The suspect has a record of arrests in Idaho, Utah and Texas, according to MyFoxDC, and reportedly is believed to be mentally ill.

Park Police originally obtained an arrest warrant for Ortega-Hernandez after discovering an AK-47-style rifle in an abandoned car Friday night. The car was found after Secret Service officers heard shots being fired between two vehicles about a half-mile from the White House.

U.S. Park Police spokesman Sgt. David Schlosser said Sunday that officers had obtained an arrest warrant for the suspect on a felony charge of carrying a dangerous weapon, in connection with the incident.

Ortega-Hernandez is thought to have remained in the Washington, D.C., area following Friday's drama. Secret Service describe him as a 21-year old, Hispanic male, 5'11", 160 pounds, with a medium build, brown eyes and black hair.

President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama were in California at the time of the shooting, before traveling to Hawaii for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

News of the bullets' discovery broke shortly after the president landed in Australia for a brief 27-hour visit.


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting PlazaRed:
Thank you for the above blog entry.
I am not in a position to comment on the rest of the world but here in Britain we are heading for the warmest November on record and they have records that go back 350 years here.
A lot of the leaves are still on the trees here in the north of England and we still have to observe a frost. Rainfall has been at a very low level and we seem to be having persistant southerly winds. Forecast for the next week or so is for temps to be about 5/c above normal.


Any link for that or personal observation?

Average temperature is around 10C which is what it has been the last few days. It did start the month around 15C, which is well above average. That said, last year's November was similar. Then December dropped the temps considerably. See what next month brings.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
With records going back just over 50years, I'm guessing there has been more than 3 late November Storms in the EPAC, just that no one ever saw them or reported them. But also these 3 could be the only ever late November storms. We don't know.

By the way, Has anyone brought up the topic of Lake Toba, Indonesia and the effect it had on the globe for about 2000-5000yrs?


Possible in the EPac, The records are nowhere near as good as those in the Atlantic. Proper ones only really started in the late 60s.

And what has Toba got to do with anything...?

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Quoting PlazaRed:
Thank you for the above blog entry.
I am not in a position to comment on the rest of the world but here in Britain we are heading for the warmest November on record and they have records that go back 350 years here.
A lot of the leaves are still on the trees here in the north of England and we still have to observe a frost. Rainfall has been at a very low level and we seem to be having persistant southerly winds. Forecast for the next week or so is for temps to be about 5/c above normal.

And we in Poland are experiencing the driest November on record.I haven't seen the rain since late October,if not longer!
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Quoting Patrap:
Due to Collective Bargaining disagreements between Ma Nature and the People of Earth,, Winter will NOT be Played in the Northern Hemisphere.


..also,

There are now 400 Giorni Days left till the Winter Solstice 2012.

Enjoy your Weds.


With no NBA to watch, and winter not playing either, it's gonna be total global and climate talk and misery
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Due to Collective Bargaining disagreements between Ma Nature and the People of Earth,, Winter will NOT be Played in the Northern Hemisphere.


..also,

There are now 400 Giorni Days left till the Winter Solstice 2012.

Enjoy your Weds.
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With records going back just over 50years, I'm guessing there has been more than 3 late November Storms in the EPAC, just that no one ever saw them or reported them. But also these 3 could be the only ever late November storms. We don't know.

By the way, Has anyone brought up the topic of Lake Toba, Indonesia and the effect it had on the globe for about 2000-5000yrs?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
interesting to see october so warm globaly...probably because i am sitting nderneath one of those small blue dots in the SE US, lol.
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4 a handful should be 5 -my kind of math
Quoting KevyDuty:


Can somebody tell me how many is "nearly a handful"??!??

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Good to see our HAARP facility partially blocked in Google....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
Math escapes some.

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Live Video streaming by Ustream
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Mayan return greetings..?


Relax, have a "Fresca".


,,and on a related note.


Uploaded by SpaceVidsNet on Oct 31, 2011

A Long March 2F rocket blasted off from China today at 21:58 UTC, Launching the Shenzhou-8 Spacecraft.




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Not to worry -- that patch in the Gobi is just Earth's new inter-galactic UPC, for easier shopping by extraterrestrials looking for a used-up planet for target practice. ;-)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.