October 2011 the globe's 8th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on November 16, 2011

Share this Blog
21
+

October 2011 was the globe's 8th warmest October on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated October the 8th warmest on record. The top ten warmest Octobers since record keeping began in 1871 have all occurred since 1997. October 2011 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 19th or 12th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH).

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the October 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

A warm October with few extremes for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., where extreme weather has been the norm this year, October was remarkably normal. October 2011 ranked as the 33rd warmest October in the 117-year record. Extremes in temperature were hard to find, with no states recording a top-ten coldest or warmest October. Three states had a top-ten driest October--Louisiana, Missouri, and Iowa. Two states had a top-ten wettest October--New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Precipitation over Texas was near normal in October, making it the first month since February that was not a top-ten driest month for the state. Nevertheless, 90% of Texas remained under extreme to exceptional drought as of November 8, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The most significant weather event of the month in the U.S. was the October 29 - 30 Nor'easter that dumped up to 32" of snow on the Northeast, causing at least $3 billion in damage.

A weak La Niña continues
A weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures have ranged between 0.8 - 1.1°C below average during the first half of November. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.

Arctic sea ice extent second lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its second lowest on record in October, behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. October 2011 sea ice extent was 23.5% below the 1979 - 2000 average. Sea ice extent retreated to its lowest value on record during the second week of November, thanks in part to a powerful 943 mb blizzard that brought hurricane-force winds to the Chukchi Sea between Siberia and Russia, compacting and breaking up the sea ice there. Sea ice records date back to 1979.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season not over yet?
Both the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans are quiet this week, and we are well past the date for the climatological formation of the season's last storm in both basins, particularly in the Eastern Pacific. A major reason for the lack of late-season activity in the Eastern Pacific is due to the cessation of African waves spawned by the African monsoon, which serve as low pressure "seeds" to get the atmosphere spinning and trigger formation of a tropical cyclone. However, the four top models for predicting formation of tropical storms unanimously agree that a tropical storm will form in the Eastern Pacific early next week, thanks to some unusual wave-like motions in the atmosphere that are generating low pressure systems over the Eastern Pacific, similar to African waves. The GFS model is forecasting that we will get not one, but two tropical storms forming in the Eastern Pacific over the next two weeks. Tropical storms are very rare in the Eastern Pacific this late in the year. Since 1949, here have been just three named storms that have formed after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983. None of these storms hit land, though the 1951 storm grazed the Baja. Next week's storm, if it forms, is expected to move west-northwest, parallel to the Mexican coast, but it is uncertain if it might pose a landfall threat or not.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 277 - 227

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

I dont recall Faethe but I have been here for years. Does anyone have a link to here wonderground page?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
R.I.P
Faethe

There is a Fark thread for her ( where I knew her a bit better than here )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Please tell me this monster blob is going to move far, far, FAR away from me.


OK, I'll tell you....:)

Seriously, about 80% of that blob is high clouds with no storm activity. Having sailed the ITCZ for a couple of years, there always seemed to be a lot of high and middle clouds, but the weather was fine for sailing. I know some of the models want to develop a TS or STS but I just have a gut feeling we're done for the year. Of course, my gut feeling plus $5 will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Please tell me this monster blob is going to move far, far, FAR away from me.
It's coming for you!!!.(Plays Jaws music)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Please tell me this monster blob is going to move far, far, FAR away from me.

North, and should become STS/TS Tammy by this time next week.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32068
Quoting surfsidesindy:
Anyone understand buoy data? Found this on another website. This buoy in the Arabian Sea has been in alert mode all week with some funky data. A poster on another website says it is indicating the sea floor is dropping in this area but no earthquakes reported?

Link


There's something wrong with the algorithm used to create the graph. The data looks unremarkable.

2011 11 17 01 33 00 3 2610.840

This is the same data that's being displayed on the graph as ~2602. Someone needs to look at the programming for that buoy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Please tell me this monster blob is going to move far, far, FAR away from me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Watch this area for STS Tammy the next coming days.


Would probably be our last named storm of the season, unless post season decides to crank out one more for the team.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24033
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If Nate was a hurricane, then I believe confidently that Arlene was one.

And Sean as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Probably not, given the pattern...It should be below-average in snowfall, and above average in temperatures.
They said 10-12.I predicting a little above that.Maybe 15-20 depending on if we get a big north easter to come along.I wish our local weather guy s would stop comparing up coming winters to that of 09-10.That will never happen again.That's a one-in-1000 year event.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Our local meteorologist are predicting our snow totals to be below average this winter..and I say to that....... look again!!!.I belive we'll see slightly abover average.


Probably not, given the pattern...It should be below-average in snowfall, and above average in temperatures.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32068
Our local meteorologist are predicting our snow totals to be below average this winter..and I say to that....... look again!!!.I belive we'll see slightly abover average.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Nate was a hurricane, then I believe confidently that Arlene was one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32068
Quoting Skyepony:


It's a little early to say with great certainty. Climo puts best odds on El Niño.



I'm leaning that way too with the excessive heat in the Atlantic & over the states, that should feed it come spring. More should follow that strong Kelvin wave too. They tend to come in sets, like waves on a beach.
Not trying to sound offensive or anything but didn't you also predict an El nino to form for 2011 and that never came to pass if memory serves me correctly?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The ENSO models forecast of November is out and shows only three models crossing to El Nino threshold by the early summer period.The majority are in the Neutral territory at that point.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
Quoting Dragod66:


wow nate a hurricane... any other TCR changes i missed this year?

Nah, that's the only classification/category change so far. There have only been four other TCRs released: Cindy, Don, Franklin, and Gert.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Data from a reconnaissance aircraft and a nearby oil rig indicated
that Nate reached hurricane strength around 1800 UTC that day when it was located about 70 n
mi north-northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, despite a satellite appearance uncharacteristic of a
hurricane."

This just shows how much recon is better than satellite estimates. IIRC, Nate at peak intensity had 45-60mph estimates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
The TCR for Nate is out, and (drumroll, please): he was upgraded to a hurricane. The season stands at 18-7-3.

So there. ;-)

(FWIW, his ACE was officially 4.3075, up from the preliminary 3.8325. His HDP was a meager 0.845.)

"Nate meandered over the Bay of Campeche for a day or so and briefly was a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)"


wow nate a hurricane... any other TCR changes i missed this year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:


Reminds me of Lenny...Hurricane Lenny was the strongest November Atlantic hurricane on record. It was the twelfth tropical storm, eighth hurricane, and record-breaking fifth Category 4 hurricane in the 1999 Atlantic hurricane season. Lenny formed on November 13 in the western Caribbean Sea, and maintained an unprecedented west-to-east track for its entire duration. It attained hurricane status to the south of Jamaica on November 15, and passed south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next few days. Lenny rapidly intensified over the northeastern Caribbean on November 17, attaining peak winds of 155 mph (250 km/h) while passing about 21 mi (34 km) south of Saint Croix in the United States Virgin Islands. It gradually weakened while moving through the Leeward Islands, eventually dissipating on November 23 over the open Atlantic Ocean.
Credit WU Archives and Wiki..


Hurricaine Lenny...11/13-11/23



Link to NOAA for Lenny Archive

Link

Yeap it passed about 50 miles to my south here in Puerto Rico,we had some tropical storm winds and some hurricane winds in gusts as well, from that"strange" storm; it felt weird to be under hurricane warnings while "thanksgiving day was approaching...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmmmm. Strange. There does not seem to be anyone here.

Hello! ................ echo

Hello! .................echo

Strange.

Hey! Did I miss the Rapture?!?!?! Again!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
The TCR for Nate is out, and (drumroll, please): he was upgraded to a hurricane. The season stands at 18-7-3.

So there. ;-)

(FWIW, his ACE was officially 4.3075, up from the preliminary 3.8325. His HDP was a meager 0.845.)

"Nate meandered over the Bay of Campeche for a day or so and briefly was a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)"


IS U SERIOUS? wow, i have seen it all.....Hurricane Nate, when all i got on my map for nate is a green line lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
The TCR for Nate is out, and (drumroll, please): he was upgraded to a hurricane. The season stands at 18-7-3.

So there. ;-)

(FWIW, his ACE was officially 4.3075, up from the preliminary 3.8325. His HDP was a meager 0.845.)

"Nate meandered over the Bay of Campeche for a day or so and briefly was a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thousands of piranhas infest beach, bite swimmers November 17, 2011 - 12:17PM

Link

Thousands of flesh-eating piranhas have infested a beach popular with tourists in western Brazil and have bitten at least 15 unwary swimmers.

Officials in the city of Caceres in Mato Grosso state say this is the first time they have had a problem with piranhas at the Daveron beach on the Paraguay river, where the aggressive fish began schooling about two weeks ago.

"People have got to be very careful. If they're bitten, they've got to get out of the water rapidly and not allow the blood to spread," firefighter Raul Castro de Oliveira told Globo TV's G1 website yesterday.
Advertisement: Story continues below

Elson de Campos Pinto, 22, was bitten on Sunday.

"I took a dip in the river and when I stood up, I felt pain in my foot," Pinto told G1.

"I saw that I had lost the tip of my toe. I took off running out of the river, afraid that I would be further attacked because of the blood. I'm not going back in for a long time."

City officials said the beach will remain open because it's an important draw for tourists in Brazil's Pantanal region, known for its ecotourism.

Each September, Caceres hosts what local officials bill as Brazil's biggest fishing festival, a weeklong event that draws 200,000 people for fishing tournaments and concerts.

Gonzaga Junior, a spokesman for the city government, said he didn't think the piranha attacks would hurt that event since it is many months away.

He tried to put a positive spin on the problem.

"Everyone knows there are piranhas in the region and have always taken the necessary precautions," he said.

"What is different this time is that they've appeared where they never appeared before."

The city has seen far fewer people than normal use the beach recently because of the piranha attacks.

It was deserted on Tuesday, a national holiday in Brazil, normally a heavy beach day.

Officials have put up large signs with blood-red letters warning swimmers of the risk: "Attention swimmers. Area at risk of piranha attacks. Danger!"

Local fisherman Hildegard Galeno Alves said that when he throws out a fishing net near the beach of late he catches numerous piranhas.

"I come here with my kids and I always see blood on the river banks," he told G1.

"The worst is that the attacks are in shallow water, next to the bank."

Despite making his living off the river, Alves left no doubt about his feelings for the water.

"I would never even think of going in there," he said.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/thousands -of-piranhas-infest-beach-bite-swimmers-20111117-1 nk6v.html#ixzz1dz81huqQ
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Some land in Japan too radioactive to farm: study
by Staff Writers Tokyo (AFP) Nov 15, 2011

Link
Farmland in parts of Japan is no longer safe because of high levels of radiation in the soil, scientists have warned, as the country struggles to recover from the Fukushima atomic disaster.

A team of international researchers said food production would likely be "severely impaired" by the elevated levels of caesium found in soil samples across eastern Fukushima in the wake of meltdowns at the tsunami-hit plant.

The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal, suggests farming in neighbouring areas may also suffer because of radiation, although levels discovered there were within legal limits.

"Fukushima prefecture as a whole is highly contaminated," especially to the northwest of the nuclear power plant, the researchers said.

The study looked at caesium-137, which has a half life of 30 years and therefore affects the environment for decades.

The legal limit for concentrations in soil where rice is grown of the sum of caesium-134 and caesium-137, which are always produced together, is 5,000 becquerels per kilogram (2.2 pounds) in Japan.

"The east Fukushima prefecture exceeded this limit and some neighbouring prefectures such as Miyagi, Tochigi and Ibaraki are partially close to the limit under our upper-bound estimate," the study said.

"Estimated and observed contaminations in the western parts of Japan were not as serious, even though some prefectures were likely affected to some extent," it added.

"Concentration in these areas are below 25 becquerels per kilogram, which is far below the threshold for farming. However, we strongly recommend each prefecture to quickly carry out some supplementary soil samplings at city levels to validate our estimates."

The study said "food production in eastern Fukushima prefecture is likely severely impaired by the caesium-137 loads of more than 2,500 becquerels per kilogram".

It is also likely production is "partially impacted in neighbouring provinces such as Iwate, Miyagi, Yamagata, Niigata, Tochigi, Ibaraki and Chiba where values of more than 250 becquerels per kilogram cannot be excluded", it said.

The study was led by Teppei Yasunari of the Universities Space Research Association in the US state of Maryland.

He and his team used daily observations in each Japanese prefecture and computer-simulated particle dispersion models based on weather patterns.

Japan has been on alert for the impact of radiation since an earthquake and resulting tsunami struck the northeast of the country on March 11, crippling the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Its cooling systems were knocked offline and reactors were sent into meltdown, resulting in the leaking of radiation into the air, oceans and food chain.

Shipments of a number of farm products from the affected regions were halted and even those that were not subject to official controls have found little favour with Japanese consumers wary of the potential health effects.

An official in charge of soil examination for the agriculture ministry said government tests had been conducted on soil in Fukushima and five other prefectures earlier this year.

He said contamination levels in Fukushima had exceeded 5,000 becquerels per kilogram, but were below that level elsewhere.

"We are now conducting further checks covering 3,000 spots in Tokyo and 14 prefectures and plan to publish the results later," he said
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
any1 see the thing in center of atlantic spinning....i think it should be named SPL lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting sunlinepr:


Sorry for that .... Just copied the error from WU. Why do WU labeled it 90L?..






you need too ask them that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



thats 90E not 90L


Sorry for that .... Just copied the error from WU. Why did WU labeled it 90L?..

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
Quoting sunlinepr:
90 L South of Mexico







thats 90E not 90L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quiet...

Everyone off trying to block Wall Street? ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90 L South of Mexico



Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
244. eddye
how cold does it show for jacksonville for next week
Member Since: Posts: Comments:










A little cooler weather coming, but not crazy stuff to the South. Pretty normal for this time of year to get a little cooler now. Now the NW is gonna be COLD but, again its still pretty normal stuff for this time of year.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439


Looks the Cumberland Mountains might get a little dusting coming.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439



Pretty good Model consensus of possibly getting one last Tropical System......Probably Sub-Tropical with the amount of Shear but, we might get Tammy yet.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting 2010hurricane:




I'll say a very weak El Nino


At this present time, unlikely.

Quoting Skyepony:


It's a little early to say with great certainty. Climo puts best odds on El Ni%uFFFDo.



I'm leaning that way too with the excessive heat in the Atlantic & over the states, that should feed it come spring. More should follow that strong Kelvin wave too. They tend to come in sets, like waves on a beach.


In my honest opinion, that's a flawed graph.

Three of those come from a warm PDO which we're not in anymore (85-86, 89-90, 00-01).

56-57 just came off the back of three straight La Ninas (which we've not just had).

71-72 and 74-75 had year long La Ninas... which we've not just had.

'Similar' conditions?

Models atm show nothing to suggest an El Nino next year. Neutral, possibly. Maybe even a warm neutral (particularly if a Kelvin Wave can shunt it in that direction).

Now, of course, it could all change. Fair few months to go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfsidesindy:
Anyone understand buoy data? Found this on another website. This buoy in the Arabian Sea has been in alert mode all week with some funky data. A poster on another website says it is indicating the sea floor is dropping in this area but no earthquakes reported?

Link


A sea floor drop would act differently on the reading. If the sea floor drop was measured by that, the earth has decided it doesn't want a sea level floor anymore, it is going to be replaced by a trampoline.

Could just be glitchy. Wave? It's close-ish to the Arabian-Indian plate boundary, but nothing to suggest it would cause it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you think El Nino will appear by next Spring,or Neutral ENSO will dominate and be around for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season?




I'll say a very weak El Nino
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


How weird is that...


Wish someone could explain it! I'm out until this afternoon but will check back to see if anyone comes up with anything. I suppose it could be errors?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


How weird is that...
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6505
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


They just get "sucked in" is all.


I see what you did there.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6505
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I'm not sure if this was an error, but a 10 meter drop in the water column in about 15 seconds is a very peculiar reading.


and evidently it's been measuring weird drops like that all week, but 10 is the highest so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:

Then why do certain people chase them? :)


They just get "sucked in" is all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfsidesindy:
Anyone understand buoy data? Found this on another website. This buoy in the Arabian Sea has been in alert mode all week with some funky data. A poster on another website says it is indicating the sea floor is dropping in this area but no earthquakes reported?

Link


I'm not sure if this was an error, but a 10 meter drop in the water column in about 15 seconds is a very peculiar reading.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6505
Anyone understand buoy data? Found this on another website. This buoy in the Arabian Sea has been in alert mode all week with some funky data. A poster on another website says it is indicating the sea floor is dropping in this area but no earthquakes reported?

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It should also be noted that all of the models are in some sort of agreement with this potential cold snap coming.

Yeah...Its that frigid airmass currently located over Alaska.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32068
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That shows snow for much of the Ohio Valley.


It should also be noted that all of the models are in some sort of agreement with this potential cold snap coming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That shows snow for much of the Ohio Valley.


All the way down to Noethern Alabama as well. Looks as if the Lake Effect machine is going to kick into high gear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Also looks as if once the severe wx passes next week then very cold air is slated for the SE US.


That shows snow for much of the Ohio Valley.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32068

Viewing: 277 - 227

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.