October 2011 the globe's 8th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on November 16, 2011

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October 2011 was the globe's 8th warmest October on record, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated October the 8th warmest on record. The top ten warmest Octobers since record keeping began in 1871 have all occurred since 1997. October 2011 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 19th or 12th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH).

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the October 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

A warm October with few extremes for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., where extreme weather has been the norm this year, October was remarkably normal. October 2011 ranked as the 33rd warmest October in the 117-year record. Extremes in temperature were hard to find, with no states recording a top-ten coldest or warmest October. Three states had a top-ten driest October--Louisiana, Missouri, and Iowa. Two states had a top-ten wettest October--New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Precipitation over Texas was near normal in October, making it the first month since February that was not a top-ten driest month for the state. Nevertheless, 90% of Texas remained under extreme to exceptional drought as of November 8, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The most significant weather event of the month in the U.S. was the October 29 - 30 Nor'easter that dumped up to 32" of snow on the Northeast, causing at least $3 billion in damage.

A weak La Niña continues
A weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures have ranged between 0.8 - 1.1°C below average during the first half of November. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.

Arctic sea ice extent second lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its second lowest on record in October, behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. October 2011 sea ice extent was 23.5% below the 1979 - 2000 average. Sea ice extent retreated to its lowest value on record during the second week of November, thanks in part to a powerful 943 mb blizzard that brought hurricane-force winds to the Chukchi Sea between Siberia and Russia, compacting and breaking up the sea ice there. Sea ice records date back to 1979.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season not over yet?
Both the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans are quiet this week, and we are well past the date for the climatological formation of the season's last storm in both basins, particularly in the Eastern Pacific. A major reason for the lack of late-season activity in the Eastern Pacific is due to the cessation of African waves spawned by the African monsoon, which serve as low pressure "seeds" to get the atmosphere spinning and trigger formation of a tropical cyclone. However, the four top models for predicting formation of tropical storms unanimously agree that a tropical storm will form in the Eastern Pacific early next week, thanks to some unusual wave-like motions in the atmosphere that are generating low pressure systems over the Eastern Pacific, similar to African waves. The GFS model is forecasting that we will get not one, but two tropical storms forming in the Eastern Pacific over the next two weeks. Tropical storms are very rare in the Eastern Pacific this late in the year. Since 1949, here have been just three named storms that have formed after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983. None of these storms hit land, though the 1951 storm grazed the Baja. Next week's storm, if it forms, is expected to move west-northwest, parallel to the Mexican coast, but it is uncertain if it might pose a landfall threat or not.

Jeff Masters

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or ride the scooters around.


it is quiet tonight


be better if it was busy lol


i want some action


tell future Tammy to hurry up


same with future Kenneth lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
I want to go to walmart and yell "chicken is free today"into the intercom lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Im bored
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
They look good.... Thanks Levi, thanks Tom for info.... saved into my anim. Gifs...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If it works next year XD
Because of the Mayan thing?

That's not till December anyway lol
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Quoting TomTaylor:
thanks, missed that one. There's an ir and vis for that one too. Will come in handy during cape verde season next year

If it works next year XD
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Eastern Atlantic?

thanks, missed that one. There's an ir and vis for that one too. Will come in handy during cape verde season next year
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Quoting TomTaylor:
what are the loops of levi's have you found?

So far I've found loops for the North Atl, Central Atl, West Atl, Floater 1, and Floater 2

Eastern Atlantic?

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You can tell much better where Tammy seems to be taking place in the Water Vapor loop..At the top center of the screen, IMO.



^ Thanks Levi.
what are the loops of levi's have you found?

So far I've found loops for the North Atl, Central Atl, West Atl, Floater 1, and Floater 2
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You can tell much better where Tammy seems to be taking place in the Water Vapor loop..At the top center of the screen, IMO.



^ Thanks Levi.
Yeah, that's where it will form if it does at all. Simple reason being is that's where the peak of the inverted trough (in the low levels) is. This means that is where the maximum amount of spin/vorticity is, and is where the low is most likely to form. Model initializations show what I'm talking about, here's the 12z Euro at 0 hrs.
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Quoting TomTaylor:



^ thanks Levi

You can tell much better where Tammy seems to be taking place in the Water Vapor loop..At the top center of the screen, IMO.



^ Thanks Levi.
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316. MTWX
Here's our next swing of cold...
From the NWS Great Falls, MT

Statement as of 6:33 PM MST on November 17, 2011


... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until noon MST Saturday
for elevations above 5000 feet...

* Timing and main impact: snow will develop overnight in the
little belt and Highwood mountains. This will cause hazardous
travel conditions with reduced visibilities and snow covered
roads. During the entire snow event... the heaviest snowfall is
expected to fall for elevations above 7000 feet... with lesser
amounts in the belt... Neihart... and White Sulphur Springs areas.

* Snow accumulations: 5 to 10 inches of snow are expected in the
Kings Hill area... while 2 to 5 inches are expected in the
belt... Neihart... and White Sulphur Springs areas.

* Visibility: heavier snow will reduce visibilities to less than
one half mile at times. Areas of blowing snow will also reduce
visibilities through tonight.

* Other impacts: hazardous driving conditions are likely...
especially through canyons and mountain passes. Travelers and
those planning outdoor activities should be prepared for winter
conditions.

* Locations affected include: Kings Hill Pass.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
and strong winds are forecast that will make travel dangerous.
Only travel in an emergency. If you must... keep an extra
flashlight... food... and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

For specific Road and travel conditions in Montana... dial 5 1 1.

Their high temps through this one will only be in the mid teens

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^ thanks Levi
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313. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That would give us Vince...and an active November as well.

- Rina
- Tammy?
- [Vince?]
Cheak.....Sean instead of Rina.... Rina was in October :) Eather way you're right, very busy.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That would give us Vince...and an active November as well.

- Rina
- Tammy?
- [Vince?]
Yes it would, I wouldn't get too excited about Vince though. Other models aren't showing this solution and the ECMWF has been inconsistent about it.
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Quoting TomTaylor:

Well whatever, I couldn't find any posts though.

Just to be sure I get this one, 12z GFS showing possible subtropical development off the SE US in 8 days. It's a long ways out, and the idea hasn't shown much run to run consistency or even shown up on other models, but it will be something to watch for to see if the ECMWF continues to display this solution.
whoops, should be 12z ECMWF, my bad
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Well whatever, I couldn't find any posts though.

Just to be sure I get this one, 12z GFS showing possible subtropical development off the SE US in 8 days. It's a long ways out, and the idea hasn't shown much run to run consistency or even shown up on other models, but it will be something to watch for to see if the ECMWF continues to display this solution.

That would give us Vince...and an active November as well.

- Rina
- Sean
- Tammy?
- [Vince?]
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think we mentioned it around the same time, but I still remembering mentioning it before you, broskii. :P
Well whatever, I couldn't find any posts though.

Just to be sure I get this one, 12z ECMWF showing possible subtropical development off the SE US in 8 days. It's a long ways out, and the idea hasn't shown much run to run consistency or even shown up on other models, but it will be something to watch for to see if the ECMWF continues to display this solution.
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Kenneth and Tammy and possibly another Mediterranean thing
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL! Looks like a pattern change may take shape next week favoring east coast storms.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Long ways out but you can clearly see the pattern that will start settling in over the next 1 to 2 weeks.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
This here is very concerning because look at the Mid Atlantic. Once the cold air really moves in over the next 14 days and we continue to see high precip in the forecast then it's just a matter of time before some monster snowstorms start materializing across New England and Mid Atlantic states.

Remember Late october of this year! People are still recovering after that one!

Uh, what pattern are you referring to?

Current model runs actually favor ridging developing over much of the Eastern half of the nation (after the little pocket of cold air leaves in 3/4 days), which would favor slightly above average temperatures, and obviously less storminess.

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i have watched the CATL loop all day today, i think there is a LLC coming together. good to see the NHC has noticed and put yeller circle up. lotta convection out there dudes, lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting TomTaylor:
no way, brah

Actually, I mentioned it a week ago on Nov 10th. I looked before that and you mentioned the possibility of something in the SW Caribbean (which never developed, LOL! jk, jk) but nothing of a STS in the open Atlantic.

Me mentioning it a week ago, post 249

I think we mentioned it around the same time, but I still remembering mentioning it before you, broskii. :P
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL! Looks like a pattern change may take shape next week favoring east coast storms.



You mean storms to ride up the east coast as rain... not snow?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The tropical cyclogenesis of Kenneth has already begun.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST THU NOV 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The tropical cyclogenesis of STS Tammy has begun.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Conditions are still favorable in the Epac but are they in the Atlantic for probably ts Tammy?
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Hey, Taz. Did you notice that Nate was upgraded from a tropical storm to a hurricane with the release of the TCR today?




yes


i wounder if they will add a few other storms
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Long ways out but you can clearly see the pattern that will start settling in over the next 1 to 2 weeks.



First possible southern snow right there in GFS's fantasy land. Twisterdata for the 12Z run today shows an area of a foot plus of snow on the SC/NC border, with a swath of an inch plus in TX, LA, AR, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, TN, KY, VA, and WV.

While that specific event is unlikely to verify at this point, it is evidence of a pattern change coming up.

This winter seems so similar to the last. La Nina but with -NAO to help the cold and snow. Very mild November and Thanksgiving but as we go into December the cold breaks loose.
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.
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299. j2008
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

And Sean as well.

Sean looked like a no-brainer hurricane to the eye, exciting to see Nate is now upgraded to a hurricane and possibly STS/TS Tammy and TS Kenneth on the horizon.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I mentioned it before you.. :P
no way, brah

Actually, I mentioned it a week ago on Nov 10th. I looked before that and you mentioned the possibility of something in the SW Caribbean (which never developed, LOL! jk, jk) but nothing of a STS in the open Atlantic.

Me mentioning it a week ago, post 249
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Quoting Tazmanian:



LOL

Hey, Taz. Did you notice that Nate was upgraded from a tropical storm to a hurricane with the release of the TCR today?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well here we go, this was the potential STS I was talking about last weekend.

GFS has consistently been developing it, ECMWF shows a storm there but it doesn't really seem to be showing a full on sts.

I mentioned it before you.. :P
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The tropical cyclogenesis of STS Tammy has begun.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Well here we go, this was the potential STS I was talking about last week.

Looking at the most reliable models, the GFS has consistently been developing it, ECMWF shows a storm there but it doesn't really develop it. Meanwhile, the less reliable models, the NOGAPS and CMC, both develop the storm quite intensely for late November. Based off the strong consensus (with the exception of the ECMWF, though I've personally found that this model is not the best at predicting potential storms before they develop) and good consistency from run to run, I'd say there's a good shot this will be STS/TS Tammy.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

..An hour later..
...Two hours later...
....Five hours later....
.....A day later.....



LOL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tying us with the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

With 93L likely being added as TS/STS #17 in the post season, we'd likely end up with 20 storms or so.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
One more time for the Atlantic this hurricane season..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Tying us with the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
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Quoting Articuno:
Wow it got quiet


I remember before I created an account and I was just an observer and there was over 150 posts per hour during TS Emily in July. I actually like now better because the amount of trolls has gone drastically down.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
One more time for the Atlantic this hurricane season..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Articuno:
Wow it got quiet

..An hour later..
...Two hours later...
....Five hours later....
.....A day later.....
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Wow it got quiet
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The tropical cyclogenesis of Kenneth has already begun.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST THU NOV 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The tropical cyclogenesis of STS Tammy has begun.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting violet312s:


She was the person who got me hooked on WU during one of the many hurricane threads on Fark.

RIP Faethe


Yeah, it's amazing how often those threads degenerate, but not when Faethe contributed.

That's my contribution for today...

stay safe everyone
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Quoting ktymisty:
R.I.P
Faethe

There is a Fark thread for her ( where I knew her a bit better than here )


She was the person who got me hooked on WU during one of the many hurricane threads on Fark.

RIP Faethe
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Quoting TomTaylor:
real quick, before I eat







just for you kori :)

u son of a bieber...
lol just kiddin
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This here is very concerning because look at the Mid Atlantic. Once the cold air really moves in over the next 14 days and we continue to see high precip in the forecast then it's just a matter of time before some monster snowstorms start materializing across New England and Mid Atlantic states.

Remember Late october of this year! People are still recovering after that one!

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Yes, I sense sts Tammy within 2 days. Can't believe this area isn't even "near 0%". looks like It's cutting off from the jet stream as we speak!

As for the east pacific low, it was just a tail end of a front that stalled out in the sw Caribbean (very common this time of year) that drifted west into the epac. Surprised this doesn't happen more often!
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Long ways out but you can clearly see the pattern that will start settling in over the next 1 to 2 weeks.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting washingtonian115:
Our local meteorologist are predicting our snow totals to be below average this winter..and I say to that....... look again!!!.I belive we'll see slightly abover average.


LOL! Looks like a pattern change may take shape next week favoring east coast storms.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
I dont recall Faethe but I have been here for years. Does anyone have a link to here wonderground page?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.