Alaska blizzard pushes 8-foot storm surge into Nome; Sean heads towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on November 10, 2011

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The most powerful storm to affect the Bering Sea coast of Alaska since 1974 is slowly winding down today, after pounding Alaska's west coast and Eastern Siberia with hurricane-force winds, a destructive storm surge more than 8 feet high, waves up to 40 feet high, and heavy snow. The highest wind gust recorded during the storm, 89 mph, was at Wales at the western tip of the Seward Peninsula, which forms the U.S. side of the Bering Strait. Hurricane force gusts were observed at seven locations in Alaska:

Cape Lisburne... 81 mph at 7 am Wed
Gambell... ... ... 74 mph at 6 pm Tue
Kotzebue... ... ..74 mph at 6 am Wed
Point Hope... ... 78 mph at 5 am Wed
Savoonga... ... ..76 mph at 7 pm Tue
Tin City... ... ..85 mph at 12 am Wed
Wales... ... ... ..89 mph at 1:42 am Wed

A storm surge of 8.6 feet hit Nome, Alaska near 9 pm EST last night, pushed inland by sustained winds that reached 45 mph, gusting to 61 mph. Large waves on top of the surge encrusted with sea ice battered the coast, causing extensive damage and coastal flooding. Significant wave heights at the Bering Sea buoy north of the Aleutian Islands reached 40 feet during the peak of the storm. The last time Nome, Alaska saw a storm this strong was November 11 - 12 1974, when the city experienced sustained winds of 46 mph with gusts to 69 mph, a pressure that bottomed out at 969 mb, and a storm surge of 13 feet. The center of yesterday's storm moved ashore over eastern Siberia near 12 UTC with a central pressure of 945 mb, and later bottomed out with a pressure of 943 mb. The storm's central pressure had risen to 958 mb this morning, with the center of the storm now located north of Siberia over the Arctic.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image taken November 8, 2011, of the 943 mb Bering Sea superstorm that affected Alaska and Siberia. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Observed storm surge at Nome, Alaska (green line). MLLW = Mean Lower Low Water, the water level at the lowest tide of the month. The top storm surge of 8.6 feet occurred near 02 GMT this morning (9 pm EST November 9, 2011.) Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

My related blog posts:
Climate change likely to worsen erosion along the Alaska coast
The future of intense winter storms

Tropical Storm Sean
Tropical Storm Sean is on the move towards the northeast, towards a brush with Bermuda. Infrared satellite loops reveal that Sean has not changed much in organization this morning. The storm has a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center that is relatively shallow, and Sean has at times been able to close off an eyewall, and has a ragged-looking eye. Bermuda radar shows one strong rain band from Sean has affected the island, with the bulk of Sean's heavy thunderstorms well to the island's southwest. Sustained winds at the Bermuda airport have been under 30 mph this morning, and Bermuda picked up 0.08" of rain yesterday, and 0.24" as of 9 am EST today. Sustained winds at buoy 41048, about 300 miles west of Bermuda were 40 mph at 7:50 am EST. Strong upper-level winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over Sean, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Ocean temperatures have fallen to 25°C (77°F), which just below the 26°C threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to maintain its strength.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Sean.

Forecast for Sean
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts wind shear will remain about where it is now through Friday morning. However, ocean temperatures will gradually cool to 24°C during this time, and it is questionable whether Sean will have a favorable enough environment to strengthen into a hurricane. The computer models show little development of Sean, with none of our reliable models predicting it will become a hurricane. Bermuda is the only land area that need concern itself with Sean, as the storm is now caught in a trough of low pressure that will accelerate the storm to the northeast. The center of Sean could pass close enough to Bermuda to bring the island heavy rain squalls and sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph on Friday. NHC is giving a 52% chance that Bermuda will receive tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph. Wind shear will rise to 30 - 50 knots on Friday, which should be able to rip the storm apart by Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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152. Barefootontherocks
4:27 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting Neo from your comment #115.
The thing is, for decades now, climate scientists have been predicting that as the planet warms, extreme weather events would increase in both frequency and intensity. By most objective accounts, that appears to be happening now. No, neither this week's rare powerful tornado, nor the Alaska superstorm--nor last week's monster Northeast snowstorm--can be blamed on climate change. And no honest scientist would claim such a thing. But it would be foolish and premature to aver that there's no connection whatsoever--or that it's all just coincidence.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:

I have no doubt the globe is warming. A mere 15,000 years ago, Puget Sound was covered with glaciers. I have seen with my own eyes shrinking glaciers in Alaska.

Re: The part of your comment I bolded.

I will not jump on the doomsday-squawking bandwagon. Jumping to conclusions never has been my thing. Talk to me about it in five years, and we'll see what's happening.

My truth, at this moment...
The events you mention have been hyped by forecasters and others who wish to make people believe doomsday is here. As I said, I ain't buyin' it.
(edited for clarity)
Quoting Neapolitan:

No "doomsday-squawking". No "bandwagon". No "jumping to conclusions". And no one is asking you to "buy" anything. I'm talking about nothing more than simple, unadulterated facts, such as those presented in this graph:

Oops

On a side note, it's funny you mention stalling action for another five years:

World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns

The world is likely to build so many fossil-fuelled power stations, energy-guzzling factories and inefficient buildings in the next five years that it will become impossible to hold global warming to safe levels, and the last chance of combating dangerous climate change will be "lost for ever", according to the most thorough analysis yet of world energy infrastructure.


LMAO. I said nothing about "delaying action." Nor did I aver no connection.

As you can see, I spoke specifically to the part of your comment I bolded. Let me put this way. There is no way I believe, at this moment, that the type of recent weather events you mention at 115 will continue at their recent pace through the next five years. In other words, I do not believe the tipping point you say science has been pointing at for 30 years "is likely happening now."

That's all I said, perhaps not clearly enough to reach the thinking, logical part of your brain.

Quit twisting my words. And quit trying to brainwash me. Something tells me these are not likely possibilities, so perhaps I'll just not post to you in future.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18617
151. troy1993
4:01 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
So..any thoughts and predictions for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
150. Patrap
3:14 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Service to America was a privilege.


Dedicated to all who serve, past, present and those gone to rest.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
149. flsky
3:03 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting ncgnto25:
Semper fi from another former Marine, Patrap--great article.


Semper fi from a daughter of a marine - my mom during WWII!
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1956
148. dabirds
2:57 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting biff4ugo:
How did the folks at Kivalina do, in Alaska?
The seawall shown on yesterday's blog, did not look large enough to handle a 5 ft. storm surge, let alone an 8'.
See post 88.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 733
147. biff4ugo
2:43 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
How did the folks at Kivalina do, in Alaska?
The seawall shown on yesterday's blog, did not look large enough to handle a 5 ft. storm surge, let alone an 8'.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1569
146. biff4ugo
2:40 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Big heartfelt thanks to the Veterans and active service men an women keeping us safe, and all the gold star families that sacrifice for us.

Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1569
145. Grothar
2:38 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Thanks to all you men and woman who so proudly served our country in the past and still today. It is a nice thing to see those posts on the blog today.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26118
144. VolunteerGator
2:38 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting RTLSNK:
32.8*F in Macon, Georgia this morning. 83% Humidity. Today's WU Forecast: Sunny, highs around 60*F, NW winds 5 to 15 mph.

VETERANS' DAY (US), REMEMBRANCE DAY (AU, CAN) - 11/11/2011

Not only do I remember the men and women who are serving now but the millions of them who have served throughout history for this county and our Allies.

I also personally remember my Father and my Uncle who served during the Korean War and my Grandfather who served during WW2. He came to this country from Yugoslavia in 1903, moved to Chigago, married my Grandmother who had come to this country from Austria, became a US Citizen, and joined the US Army during WW2 and served as an interpreter even though he suffered greatly from the racial slurs and mistrust from "real American soldiers" because of his "German" heritage. Undaunted, he carried out his military duties with dignity and professionalism and returned home to Chicago and began to raise a family.

May they find peace and comfort in the knowledge that they offered their lives and served their country to the best of their abilities for an ideal that was greater than themselves.

The following poem was written by Cadet Major Kelly Strong, Air Force Junior ROTC, Homestead Senior High School, Homestead, Florida, 1988:

FREEDOM IS NOT FREE

I watched the flag pass by one day, it fluttered in the breeze,
A young Marine saluted it, and then he stood at ease.
I looked at him in uniform, so young, so tall, so proud,
With hair cut square and eyes alert, he'd stand out in any crowd.

I thought how many men like him, had fallen through the years,
How many died on foreign soil, how many mother's tears?
How many pilots' planes shot down, how many died at sea?
How many foxholes were soldiers' graves? No, freedom is not free.

I heard the sound of "Taps" one night, when everything was still,
I listened to the bugler play, and felt a sudden chill.
I wondered just how many times, that "Taps" had meant "Amen",
When a flag had draped a coffin, of a brother or a friend.

I thought of all the children, of the mothers and the wives,
Of fathers, sons, and husbands, with interrupted lives.
I thought about a graveyard, at the bottom of the sea,
Of unmarked graves in Arlington, No, freedom is not free.




Nice post. At least one person on here has there priorities in line this morning.
Member Since: September 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
143. ncgnto25
2:22 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Semper fi from another former Marine, Patrap--great article.
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
142. islander101010
2:16 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
tgif l_l
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4576
141. GeoffreyWPB
1:34 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
A safe and blessed Veterans Day to the folks on the blog.


And a heartfelt thank you to all whom unselfishly served and protected, and continue to protect, our nation.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11150
140. Neapolitan
1:25 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting myway:



First for Oklahoma...yes.


Today is the 100 year anniversary of a F4 tornado in Janesville Wisconsin.

That Janesville storm was part of a much larger weather event, the "Great Blue Norther" of 11/11/11, during which temperatures plummeted--as fair a use of that word as there's ever been. For instance, Springfield, Missouri, reached a high of 80F just prior to the passage of the cold front. Two hours later, the temperature was 40F, and by midnight it had dropped to 13F. And contemporary accounts claim that an hour after the tornado went through Janesville, first responders were working in blizzard conditions and near-zero visibility.

FWIW, the Tornado Project's database shows 19 total November F4s (and no F5s) before this week's Oklahoma storm. It was by a long shot the farthest west; only five of the others were west of the Mississippi, with the 1992 F4 near Houston the westernmost. (The project only lists twisters from 1950 onward, as classifying older ones based on anedcotal evidence and contemporary eyewitness accounts is fraught with error.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
139. hydrus
1:21 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
A safe and blessed Veterans Day to the folks on the blog.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
138. bappit
1:03 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
And another interesting passage from the NCDC article:

"The paleoclimatic record of past droughts is a better guide than what is provided by the instrumental record alone of what we should expect in terms of the magnitude and duration of future droughts. For example, paleoclimatic data suggest that droughts as severe at the 1950s drought have occurred in central North America several times a century over the past 300-400 years, and thus we should expect (and plan for) similar droughts in the future. The paleoclimatic record also indicates that droughts of a much greater duration than any in 20th century have occurred in parts of North American as recently as 500 years ago. These data indicate that we should be aware of the possibility of such droughts occurring in the future as well. The occurrence of such sustained drought conditions today would be a natural disaster of a magnitude unprecedented in the 20th century."

Looking at the cracked roads and dead trees around Houston, I wonder. You can drive past just about any forested patch of land around west Houston and see fairly tall trees dead trees, 50 feet or more. I don't want to think about the house slabs. Cattle have been sold off, a loss to agriculture--enjoy the lower beef prices while they last.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6021
137. bappit
12:51 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Interesting paragraph from the dust bowl reference.

"The agricultural and economic damage devastated residents of the Great Plains. The Dust Bowl drought worsened the already severe economic crises that many Great Plains farmers faced. In the early 1930s, many farmers were trying to recover from economic losses suffered during the Great Depression. To compensate for these losses, they began to increase their crop yields. High production drove prices down, forcing farmers to keep increasing their production to pay for both their equipment and their land. When the drought hit, farmers could no longer produce enough crops to pay off loans or even pay for essential needs. Even with Federal emergency aid, many Great Plains farmers could not withstand the economic crisis of the drought. Many farmers were forced off of their land, with one in ten farms changing possession at the peak of the farm transfers."

Similar to a tragedy of the commons.

"The tragedy of the commons is a dilemma arising from the situation in which multiple individuals, acting independently and rationally consulting their own self-interest, will ultimately deplete a shared limited resource, even when it is clear that it is not in anyone's long-term interest for this to happen."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6021
136. bappit
12:47 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting DallasGumby:
Why was the 1930-36 drought so intense that it bears its own name, The Dust Bowl, and left in its wake numerous abandoned towns and an outmigration of 2.5 million people?

Farming practices had a lot to do with that. It was not just the drought. Wikipedia:

"The phenomenon was caused by severe drought coupled with decades of extensive farming without crop rotation, fallow fields, cover crops or other techniques to prevent wind erosion."

The mighty Wiki references this.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6021
135. myway
12:45 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unprecedented for November, which that link confirms. There has never been an EF-4 tornado in November in Oklahoma. The 2011 Tipton, OK tornado is a first.



First for Oklahoma...yes.


Today is the 100 year anniversary of a F4 tornado in Janesville Wisconsin.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
134. RTLSNK
12:41 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
32.8*F in Macon, Georgia this morning. 83% Humidity. Today's WU Forecast: Sunny, highs around 60*F, NW winds 5 to 15 mph.

VETERANS' DAY (US), REMEMBRANCE DAY (AU, CAN) - 11/11/2011

Not only do I remember the men and women who are serving now but the millions of them who have served throughout history for this county and our Allies.

I also personally remember my Father and my Uncle who served during the Korean War and my Grandfather who served during WW2. He came to this country from Yugoslavia in 1903, moved to Chigago, married my Grandmother who had come to this country from Austria, became a US Citizen, and joined the US Army during WW2 and served as an interpreter even though he suffered greatly from the racial slurs and mistrust from "real American soldiers" because of his "German" heritage. Undaunted, he carried out his military duties with dignity and professionalism and returned home to Chicago and began to raise a family.

May they find peace and comfort in the knowledge that they offered their lives and served their country to the best of their abilities for an ideal that was greater than themselves.

The following poem was written by Cadet Major Kelly Strong, Air Force Junior ROTC, Homestead Senior High School, Homestead, Florida, 1988:

FREEDOM IS NOT FREE

I watched the flag pass by one day, it fluttered in the breeze,
A young Marine saluted it, and then he stood at ease.
I looked at him in uniform, so young, so tall, so proud,
With hair cut square and eyes alert, he'd stand out in any crowd.

I thought how many men like him, had fallen through the years,
How many died on foreign soil, how many mother's tears?
How many pilots' planes shot down, how many died at sea?
How many foxholes were soldiers' graves? No, freedom is not free.

I heard the sound of "Taps" one night, when everything was still,
I listened to the bugler play, and felt a sudden chill.
I wondered just how many times, that "Taps" had meant "Amen",
When a flag had draped a coffin, of a brother or a friend.

I thought of all the children, of the mothers and the wives,
Of fathers, sons, and husbands, with interrupted lives.
I thought about a graveyard, at the bottom of the sea,
Of unmarked graves in Arlington, No, freedom is not free.


Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20938
133. PensacolaDoug
12:37 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Today is the 1st time this year for a little frost on on my cars and neighbors roof down on Bayou Grande.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563
132. GeoffreyWPB
12:17 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11150
131. PlazaRed
12:13 PM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unprecedented for November, which that link confirms. There has never been an EF-4 tornado in November in Oklahoma. The 2011 Tipton, OK tornado is a first.

Throughout recorded history, is an interesting term!
There will always be new and higher/lower records being documented, as the monitoring systems approach perfect then nothing much will slip through the net so to speak in the future.
As people in say 20 years, which is as far as I am prepared to think on this will be concerned, there will be a list of facts that will never have been equaled before in recorded history, things may become "stronger," or more extreme but at some point, maybe with a notable rise in sea levels or an exodus of "climatic refugees," the scale of what is probably happening now will become undeniable.
A lot of people underestimate the importance of what the records that are being taken now will be to a future generation.Plus how we wish more records had been taken in the past, to confirm change, rather than speculate about it.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2076
130. Cotillion
11:53 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
(On second thoughts, I'll leave the GW debate for another day).

--



Always remember.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
129. trunkmonkey
11:24 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
I ain't real smart, I'm just a lurker in here, but one thing I have studied is the polarity changes, which affects weather patterns,
Fact the North pole has a 20% less polarity now than it did in 1900, and the South pole as increased the same.
I never hear anything in these blogs about how this phenomena is effecting our weather, it strictly about carbons, and being man made.

As an Emergency Manager I have to look out of the box and look at everything to be successful in my job, so when it comes to weather issues, there are a lot of contributing factors, NOT just man made issues.
The sun with it's storms,
Volcano's
Polarity changes,
Amazon jungle disappearing.
Carbon release.
Cyclical weather changes.
How about the effects on polarity from astroids?
So in closing, I ain't no weather guy never have been never will be, but I have an open mind to what the causes of our changing weather.
Just is just my two cents worth in this carbon argument.

As Paul Harvey said, Good Day!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
128. Neapolitan
9:51 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

I have no doubt the globe is warming. A mere 15,000 years ago, Puget Sound was covered with glaciers. I have seen with my own eyes shrinking glaciers in Alaska.

Re: The part of your comment I bolded.

I will not jump on the doomsday-squawking bandwagon. Jumping to conclusions never has been my thing. Talk to me about it in five years, and we'll see what's happening.

My truth, at this moment...
The events you mention have been hyped by forecasters and others who wish to make people believe doomsday is here. As I said, I ain't buyin' it.
(edited for clarity)

No "doomsday-squawking". No "bandwagon". No "jumping to conclusions". And no one is asking you to "buy" anything. I'm talking about nothing more than simple, unadulterated facts, such as those presented in this graph:

Oops

On a side note, it's funny you mention stalling action for another five years:

World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns

The world is likely to build so many fossil-fuelled power stations, energy-guzzling factories and inefficient buildings in the next five years that it will become impossible to hold global warming to safe levels, and the last chance of combating dangerous climate change will be "lost for ever", according to the most thorough analysis yet of world energy infrastructure.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
127. BarometerGirl
7:15 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Wow! A near-hurricane in the open Atlantic in November - incredible.



Meanwhile in the Pacific, a similar though mostly non-tropical vortex is setting up to impact Los Angeles via what looks like an atmospheric river.


The atmospheric river is called the Pineapple Express here in Cali, and this scenario makes everyone in the Sacramento River Delta extremely nervous.

Strange thing, by the looks of the satellite pic, it should've been raining here in San Diego since about 2pm today, but because of the mild Santa Ana conditions generated by the high pressure in the Great Basin, the clouds just lost moisture as they moved onshore hitting the dry air. With the dewpoint and humidity both at 31%, any precipitation evaporates well before it can reach the ground.

It was a weird, warm and thinly veiled cloudy day today. Some call it "earthquake weather". Now there is a big clear spot forming and growing over San Diego as this "river" gets sucked dry-- so far--but the moisture will eventually win out and the forecast is for rain all weekend.
Member Since: December 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
126. Barefootontherocks
6:23 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Strange. It is not actually for sell but, we will all end up paying for it.


Not sure if you're joking or what.

I guess, then, if one does not believe(buy) the hype about this odd string of weather, they do not have to pay.
:)
...
Add: on the subject of the recent western Alaska Storm...
This photo blew me away!
from Matthew Smith, KNOM radio in Nome
The shapes of nature. Be sure you see the whole photo, not just the top.
:)

Goodnight folks - far, near and invisible.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18617
125. Barefootontherocks
6:14 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting FatPenguin:

doomsday-squawking bandwagon?

by saying that, you discredit your opinion. you've shown a lack of objectivity and scientific approach.


LOL
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18617
124. DallasGumby
5:24 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

But then that begs the obvious follow-up question: why was the summer's drought and heat so intense

La Nina?

Of course, the question you're asking assumes the drought and heat were exceptionally abnormal. So I ask, why was the drought and heat of 1980 so intense? Why was the drought of the 1950s so intense? Why was the 1930-36 drought so intense that it bears its own name, The Dust Bowl, and left in its wake numerous abandoned towns and an outmigration of 2.5 million people?
Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 376
123. Some1Has2BtheRookie
5:13 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

I have no doubt the globe is warming. A mere 15,000 years ago, Puget Sound was covered with glaciers. I have seen with my own eyes shrinking glaciers in Alaska.

Re: The part of your comment I bolded.

I will not jump on the doomsday-squawking bandwagon. Jumping to conclusions never has been my thing. Talk to me about it in five years, and we'll see what's happening.

My truth, at this moment...
The events you mention have been hyped by forecasters and others who wish to make people believe doomsday is here. As I said, I ain't buyin' it.
(edited for clarity)


Strange. It is not actually for sell but, we will all end up paying for it.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
122. FatPenguin
5:11 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

I have no doubt the globe is warming. A mere 15,000 years ago, Puget Sound was covered with glaciers. I have seen with my own eyes shrinking glaciers in Alaska.

Re: The part of your comment I bolded.

I will not jump on the doomsday-squawking bandwagon. Jumping to conclusions never has been my thing. Talk to me about it in five years, and we'll see what's happening.

My truth, at this moment...
The events you mention have been hyped by forecasters and others who wish to make people believe doomsday is here. As I said, I ain't buyin' it.
(edited for clarity)

doomsday-squawking bandwagon?

by saying that, you discredit your opinion. you've shown a lack of objectivity and scientific approach.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
121. Barefootontherocks
4:09 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, I specifically referred to this week's EF4 being the first one in Oklahoma during November, not the first in autumn. And if you'd like to claim that the tornado was so powerful as a response to the summer's extreme drought and heat, I'll grant you that. But then that begs the obvious follow-up question: why was the summer's drought and heat so intense?

The thing is, for decades now, climate scientists have been predicting that as the planet warms, extreme weather events would increase in both frequency and intensity. By most objective accounts, that appears to be happening now. No, neither this week's rare powerful tornado, nor the Alaska superstorm--nor last week's monster Northeast snowstorm--can be blamed on climate change. And no honest scientist would claim such a thing. But it would be foolish and premature to aver that there's no connection whatsoever--or that it's all just coincidence.

I have no doubt the globe is warming. A mere 15,000 years ago, Puget Sound was covered with glaciers. I have seen with my own eyes shrinking glaciers in Alaska.

Re: The part of your comment I bolded.

I will not jump on the doomsday-squawking bandwagon. Jumping to conclusions never has been my thing. Talk to me about it in five years, and we'll see what's happening.

My truth, at this moment...
The events you mention have been hyped by forecasters and others who wish to make people believe doomsday is here. As I said, I ain't buyin' it.
(edited for clarity)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18617
120. BDADUDE
3:58 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602
119. BDADUDE
3:56 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602
118. WxGeekVA
3:56 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I never trust that model, always overdoes things


Like I said, entertainment purposes. I do not believe at all that the solution depicted will be the case.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
117. Barefootontherocks
3:53 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unprecedented for November, which that link confirms. There has never been an EF-4 tornado in November in Oklahoma. The 2011 Tipton, OK tornado is a first.


Uh, yeah.

You're a smart kid, so I'll let you in on a secret. One detail alone rarely tells the tale. Sometimes, in weather and in life, it is wise to look at the bigger picture.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18617
116. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:45 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting WxGeekVA:
It's getting too quiet in here. Let's take a look at one of the CMC ensemble members for some entertainment.

Hour 216:



Hour 240:





I never trust that model, always overdoes things
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
115. Neapolitan
3:39 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Neither coincidence, unprecedented or a surprise for Western Oklahoma.

Since 1950, three other F4s and numerous F3s have occurred in western Oklahoma during Fall, second season severe.

Coincidence. I don't believe in them. The system that spawned this tornado was the sky's way of seeking balance by bringing Oklahoma widespread rain after a droughtful summer.

The atmosphere was ripe. SPC discussions and tornado watches repeatedly mentioned the risk for EF2plus tornadoes with this system.

Another system next week? Oklahoma needs it. Bring on the rain, even if it blows my roof off.
:)

Well, I specifically referred to this week's EF4 being the first one in Oklahoma during November, not the first in autumn. And if you'd like to claim that the tornado was so powerful as a response to the summer's extreme drought and heat, I'll grant you that. But then that begs the obvious follow-up question: why was the summer's drought and heat so intense?

The thing is, for decades now, climate scientists have been predicting that as the planet warms, extreme weather events would increase in both frequency and intensity. By most objective accounts, that appears to be happening now. No, neither this week's rare powerful tornado, nor the Alaska superstorm--nor last week's monster Northeast snowstorm--can be blamed on climate change. And no honest scientist would claim such a thing. But it would be foolish and premature to aver that there's no connection whatsoever--or that it's all just coincidence.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
114. Seastep
3:32 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Think HWRF finally won one. Hasn't had a good track record, imo.

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113. Seastep
3:29 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting BDADUDE:
Windy here but it looks like sean is passing harmlessly to the west of us.


Most likely harmless, but still a bee-line to BDA since this morning. No change there.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
112. TampaSpin
3:25 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Looks like very normal to above normal temps for the next 10 days it appears for most of the ConUs!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
111. TampaSpin
3:17 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
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110. TampaSpin
3:15 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
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109. TampaSpin
3:12 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
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108. TampaSpin
3:11 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
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107. BDADUDE
2:59 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
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106. BDADUDE
2:58 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Windy here but it looks like sean is passing harmlessly to the west of us.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602
105. yqt1001
2:58 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Well, it's pretty unrelated (please don't ban me!), but it's worth posting I think. (though I doubt there are very many PC gamers in this crowd)

Valve has just confirmed that Steam was hacked on the weekend.

You are going to have to click "Proceed to the Forums" to see the details.

Today must not be my lucky day since I just bought 5 games (valued at $190) on there....
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
104. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:45 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Neither coincidence, unprecedented or a surprise for Western Oklahoma.

Since 1950, three other F4s and numerous F3s have occurred in western Oklahoma during Fall, second season severe.

Coincidence. I don't believe in them. The system that spawned this tornado was the sky's way of seeking balance by bringing Oklahoma widespread rain after a droughtful summer.

The atmosphere was ripe. SPC discussions and tornado watches repeatedly mentioned the risk for EF2plus tornadoes with this system.

Another system next week? Oklahoma needs it. Bring on the rain, even if it blows my roof off.
:)

Unprecedented for November, which that link confirms. There has never been an EF-4 tornado in November in Oklahoma. The 2011 Tipton, OK tornado is a first.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
103. Barefootontherocks
2:40 AM GMT on November 11, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
Monday's tornado in Tipton, Oklahoma, has been upgraded to an EF4, making it the strongest ever November twister in the state tornado database:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-nov embertornadoes

Just more coincidence...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, unprecedented for November.

There is a chance for another Tornado Outbreak as we head into next week, as depicted by the GFS and ECMWF. We'll have to watch it closely, as it would hit the same relative area.


Neither coincidence, unprecedented or a surprise for Western Oklahoma.

Since 1950, three other F4s and numerous F3s have occurred in western Oklahoma during Fall, second season severe.

Coincidence. I don't believe in them. The system that spawned this tornado was the sky's way of seeking balance by bringing Oklahoma widespread rain after a droughtful summer.

The atmosphere was ripe. SPC discussions and tornado watches repeatedly mentioned the risk for EF2plus tornadoes with this system.

Another system next week? Oklahoma needs it. Bring on the rain, even if it blows my roof off.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18617
102. WeatherNerdPR
2:37 AM GMT on November 11, 2011

000
WTNT44 KNHC 110236
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1100 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011

SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE PROVIDED MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY
OF SEAN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON ONE HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR OF
ABOUT 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS HAS DISPLACED THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AS SEEN IN RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH 00Z DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE NHC
FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. BY 24 HOURS...SEAN SHOULD BE
ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

RECENT DVORAK AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/11. THIS RIGHTWARD JOG SHOULD BE TEMPORARY
HOWEVER...AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
GIVEN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTHEAST...OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE
TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 31.5N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 33.6N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.