Sean, rare Mediterranean hybrid, and AK superstorm forms; quakes and tornadoes in OK

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:52 PM GMT on November 08, 2011

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Subtropical Storm Sean formed this morning between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Sean's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to eighteen, tying 2011 with 1969 as the 6th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005, 1933, 1995, 1887, and 2010 have had more named storms. However, 2011 has had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. We've had an average number of hurricanes--six--meaning that only 33% of this year's named storms have made it to hurricane strength. Normally, 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. There have been three major hurricanes in 2011, which is one above average, and the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)--a measure of the destructive potential of this season's storms--has been about 20% above average. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for the unusually high count of named storms, but near-average number of hurricanes and ACE.


Figure 1. The subtropical disturbance that became Subtropical Storm Sean, as seen at 1 pm EST November 7, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Infrared satellite loops reveal that Sean has developed a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center that is increasing in intensity and areal coverage. While the low-level circulation center is exposed to view, a band of thunderstorms is trying to wrap around and close of the center. If this occurs, more substantial strengthening can occur, since the center will be walled off from the dry air that is currently interfering with development. Bermuda radar shows weak rain bands from Sean rippling across the island, with the strongest rain showers well to the island's southwest. Sustained winds at the Bermuda airport have been under 30 mph this morning. Sustained winds near tropical storm force were occurring this morning at buoy 41048, about 300 miles west of Bermuda. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph at 6:50 am EST. Strong upper-level winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over Sean, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Sean is a relatively shallow storm, and the tops of its thunderstorms extend up only to about the 300 mb level. Normally, a tropical storm extends up to about 200 mb. The shallow nature of Sean's thunderstorms mean that the storm is less vulnerable to wind shear than normal, since the storm is not feeling the strongest winds aloft. Ocean temperatures are near 26.5°C (80°F), which is right at the boundary of being warm enough to support tropical storm formation.

Forecast for Sean
Sean will drift slowly west or northwest today and Wednesday. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts wind shear will remain about where it is now through Thursday morning, which should allow Sean to slowly intensify to a 50 mph storm. If Sean can make the transition to a fully tropical storm, more significant intensification can occur. The computer models show little or no development of Sean, with none of our reliable models predicting it will become a hurricane. Bermuda is the only land area that need concern itself with Sean, as a trough of low pressure is expected to absorb the storm on Thursday and lift it quickly to the north or northeast. The center of Sean could pass close enough to Bermuda to bring the island heavy rain squalls and sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph on Thursday and Friday. NHC is giving a 28% chance that Bermuda will receive tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph. High wind shear should destroy Sean on Friday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of the hybrid low named "Rolf" in the Mediterranean Sea at 10:30 UTC November 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Unusual tropical storm-like low forms off coast of France
An unusual hybrid low pressure system has formed in the Mediterranean Sea, about 100 miles south of the coast of France. The low began as an extratropical storm named "Rolf", but has stalled out over the relatively warm waters of the Mediterranean over the past two days, and has acquired tropical characteristics. Heavy thunderstorms have built over the northeast portion of the low, and the storm has a symmetric spiral shape with a cloud-free center, like a tropical storm. The Navy is calling this system Invest 99L. The National Hurricane Center is not responsible for the Mediterranean Sea, so they are not issuing any products for 99L. NOAA's Satellite and Information Service (NESDIS) is giving 99L a tropical classification based on its satellite presentation, with winds in the 40 - 45 mph range. French radar shows heavy rains from 99L are beginning to affect Southeast France and the island of Corsica. The Lion Buoy, located about 100 miles to the west of the center of 99L, recorded sustained winds of tropical storm force, 40 mph, at 00 UTC yesterday. Water temperatures at the buoy were 17°C (63°F), far below the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 22°C during Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. I doubt that NHC would name this system if they did have responsibility for the Mediterranean, due to the cold water temperatures.

"Rolf" is expected to move slowly northwards into the coast of South France by Wednesday night. Meteo France is predicting heavy rains of 30 - 40 mm/hr (1.2 - 1.6"/hr) will affect the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday, with sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 75 mph.


Figure 3. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over water of 21.5°C. "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to "extremely strong westerly wind." The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algeirs, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

According to research published by Gaertner et al. (2007), an increase in ocean temperatures of 3°C in the Mediterranean by the end of the century could lead to hurricanes forming there. Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain, ran 9 different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could reach 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Meteo France has an interesting animation of the predicted winds and temperatures over the next few days.

Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations,, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image from the Tipton, OK tornado of November 7, 2011, showing a classic hook echo.


Video 1. Reed Timmer video of the November 7, 2011 tornado in Tipton, OK. Here's another excellent video of the Tipton tornado and a tornado near Manitou, OK from Texas Storm Chasers. Storm chasing IS dangerous: one storm chaser had his vehicle overturned, but got into another vehicle and continued the chase.

Shaken and stirred: an earthquake and tornado for Oklahoma
It was a rare multi-natural hazard day for Oklahoma yesterday, as the state experienced both a tornado and an earthquake, six hours apart. The damaging magnitude 5.6 earthquake that shook the state Saturday night spawned a magnitude 4.7 aftershock at 8:46 pm CST yesterday, 44 miles east of Oklahoma City. And at 2:47 pm CST, a tornado touched down in Southwest Oklahoma near Tipton. The tornado destroyed an Oklahoma State University agricultural office, and damaged a hay barn at a dairy farm. No injuries were reported. The UK MailOnline has an interesting article showing the radar image from Saturday's quake, which captured a massive groups of birds and insects that took flight after the ground shook.

This afternoon, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Southeast Oklahoma, East Texas, Southeast Missouri, and most of Arkansas in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather, thanks to a strong low pressure system moving across the Plains. During the late afternoon, severe thunderstorms with high winds and large hail and expected over the region, and we cannot rule out an isolated tornado.

Bering Sea superstorm targets Alaska
A massive blizzard the National Weather Service is calling one of the most severe Bering Sea storms on record is gathering strength today to the west of Alaska. The storm is expected to "bomb" to a central pressure of 945 - 950 mb Tuesday night, and to 940 mb on Wednesday. These pressures, characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, will be strong enough to generate sustained winds of Category 1 hurricane force over the waters to the west of Alaska, with winds of 50 - 70 mph expected along portions of the coast. Nome, Alaska is expecting a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet. Waves of 15 - 25 feet with ice on top will batter the shores, causing severe damage to the coast.

Jeff Masters

Chaser Cap (OIG)
This is a screen capture taken during a chase near Lawton, OK.
Chaser Cap

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139. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm (1000 hPa) located at 42.8N 6.5E, or 112 km southeast of Marseille (France), 205 km west northwest of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 45 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary

Both shear and dry air seem to have taken their toll on 01M/99L. Latest HVIS data indicated a tilted vortex with the low level circulation center is somewhat displaced to the southwest (probably forced by modest northwest/westerly shear at higher levels). Current thinking is that if any warm-core structure is present, it will be a tilted one. Nevertheless, latest SAB update indicated another increase in strength and latest ASCAT data reveals 40-45 kt in the northern quadrant (some arrows not contaminated by ongoing DMC). The question arises, if this is not more typical for a subtropical feature due to ongoing modest shear. The system also has looped during the past few hours with only marginal movement to the north. A band of intense convection affects parts of SE-France right now and heavy to isolated excessive rainfall will be an imminent risk, next to an isolated tornado event with augmented LL shear! Further bands with heavy rainfall may affect southeastern France/west Ligurian coast during the night as the cyclone remains just offshore. Future intensity signals are mixed for 01M, as shear abates somewhat but it remains atop marginal cooler sea surface temperatures and it has drier air to the west to work with. Soundings upstream also confirm a slow warming trend at mid-levels. We would not be surprised to see a more pulsating activity of DMC next to the center/along the bands during the next 12-24h, but overall signs are more against another intense flare-up of persistent DMC. Models still show a stalling or westward moving system while weakening ahead of another upper trough over the far west Atlantic.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44849
Quoting FtMyersgal:


WOW, that sure looks like a powerful storm. I haven't been following it too closely. Does anyone know if it will stay north of the 48, especially north of Washington State, Oregon and California?


It's going to dissipate within the polar vortex just north of Siberia, and won't be coming anywhere close to the lower 48. This storm is literally being generated by the northern hemisphere anchoring polar vortex diving into Siberia.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting Levi32:


18z analysis just came out, and it's down to 948mb.



948?? That's the equal to a Category 4 hurricane in pressure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FtMyersgal:


WOW, that sure looks like a powerful storm. I haven't been following it too closely. Does anyone know if it will stay north of the 48, especially north of Washington State, Oregon and California?


It is! I don't ever remember seeing anything that powerful. The last report said it will move NORTHWEST. It could be a misprint or it might move back NORTHWEST. I guess we have to ask Levi.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

...ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
SEA STORMS ON RECORD...

A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
AT 9 AM THIS MORNING THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, Levi, see if you can post this link on the blog as an animated image. Nice image of the Bering Straits storm.




Link


WOW, that sure looks like a powerful storm. I haven't been following it too closely. Does anyone know if it will stay north of the 48, especially north of Washington State, Oregon and California?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
That chaser video in Masters' entry was insane.

Levi~ When I saw how that storm was coming together up your way last night, I hoped I'd get to catch your take on it. That thing looks like it's gonna bomb..


18z analysis just came out, and it's down to 948mb.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey, Levi, see if you can post this link on the blog as an animated image. Nice image of the Bering Straits storm.




Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not really..


It is bigger than alaska...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Zapdos:



It makes hurricanes look like an ant...

Not really..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Quoting Levi32:
This is absolutely no joke for our west coast residents. This is as dangerous as the weather can ever get in this part of the world.




It makes hurricanes look like an ant...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
36H 10/0600Z 29.0N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH


That's a 36 hr forecast position and Strength Guess'timate
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
127. Skyepony (Mod)
That chaser video in Masters' entry was insane.

Levi~ When I saw how that storm was coming together up your way last night, I hoped I'd get to catch your take on it. That thing looks like it's gonna bomb..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
Good bet for now, may go up further if Sean continues to strengthen.

36H 10/0600Z 29.0N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Today is turning out to be a bigger tornado day then yesterday surprisingly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
This is absolutely no joke for our west coast residents. This is as dangerous as the weather can ever get in this part of the world.


Just hope it doesn't get to bad where you live, stay safe, for us. I just hope that everyone is batting down the hatches, because this is a serious thing, nothing to joke about, it's a life or death
situation.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2301
TS SEAN in RGB image this aft.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
I guess Fla. is safe then ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Buoy south of the Alaska storm center in the Bering Sea is already gusting to hurricane force and pressure into the 960s.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
This is absolutely no joke for our west coast residents. This is as dangerous as the weather can ever get in this part of the world.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26562
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

What's up bud?

Not much.
Just a regular day.
:>
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2301
Sean looking good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:
Alaska

Hope people stay safe, I wish somebody could document this, like a hurricane chase video, because this would be interesting to see.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2301


072
WFUS54 KLCH 082044
TORLCH
TXC199-082130-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0023.111108T2044Z-111108T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
244 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...WILDWOOD...THICKET...SARATOGA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 240 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES WEST OF
BATSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BATSON BY 315 PM CST...
VOTAW BY 320 PM CST...
THICKET BY 325 PM CST...
SARATOGA BY 330 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Seems like NWS is taking this one seriously. That's probably a good thing:
------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

...ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
SEA STORMS ON RECORD...


A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.

AT 9 AM THIS MORNING THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

THE STORM WILL BRING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS TO ALL OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEST COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION OVER MANY PARTS OF THE
COASTLINE. THE WIND WILL PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON
SOUND...RAISING SEA LEVELS TO 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN NORTON
SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. THE EXTREMELY STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH WAVES WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGH WATER
FARTHER INLAND.

OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 MPH. ALONG THE CHUKCHI COAST
...WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. IN THE NOME AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS
60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. ALMOST ALL OTHER
AREAS OF THE WEST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
OF AT LEAST 50 TO 60 MPH.

WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH
EROSION IS EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

1. THE BERING SEA COAST FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO POINT
ROMANOF...ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SHORES.
2. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON
SOUND WESTWARD TO AND INCLUDING THE BERING STRAIT COAST
AND LITTLE DIOMEDE ISLAND.
3. SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
4. THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE.

THIS INCLUDES THE VILLAGES OF NOME AND KIVALINA WHERE
MAJOR DAMAGE FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS
IS EXPECTED. THE VILLAGE OF SAVOONGA ON THE NORTH SHORE
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE PROTECTED FROM COASTAL
FLOODING BUT WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH SEA LEVELS IN NORTON SOUND WILL CAUSE
COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE.

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER MOST AREAS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA MAINLAND...WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PEOPLE ARE URGED
TO SEEK SHELTER NOW AND POSTPONE TRAVEL INTO THE BACK COUNTRY
UNTIL THE STORM ABATES.


ALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD SEEK SAFETY IN PORT IMMEDIATELY
IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. IN AREAS WHERE BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...SMALL BOATS
AND PERSONAL PROPERTY SHOULD BE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM THE
SHORE AND TO HIGHER GROUND.

AGAIN...THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
STORM OF AN EPIC MAGNITUDE RARELY EXPERIENCED. ALL PEOPLE
IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD THEIR LIVES
AND PROPERTY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 082034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
500 PM AST TUE NOV 08 2011

...SEAN A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537



168
WFUS54 KSHV 082036
TORSHV
TXC423-082100-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0087.111108T2036Z-111108T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
236 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 231 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER SMITH
COUNTY...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF TYLER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.



LAT...LON 3247 9523 3252 9502 3252 9499 3241 9498
3240 9499 3239 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 257DEG 29KT 3245 9517
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Good afternoon all, I see we have Tropical Storm Sean now.

I'll be the first to say it...Sean is going to strengthen more than currently forecast, with an outside chance of reaching hurricane intensity.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
501
WFUS54 KSHV 082031
TORSHV
OKC089-082115-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0086.111108T2031Z-111108T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
231 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 227 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF
HOCHATOWN...OR 30 MILES WEST OF DE QUEEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED EARLIER WITH THIS STORM NEAR VALLIANT.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT
HERMAN...SHERWOOD...SMITHVILLE...WATSON...BEACHTON AND
PLUNKETVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



LAT...LON 3450 9446 3426 9446 3405 9484 3419 9497
3452 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 234DEG 29K
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
357
WFUS54 KSHV 082027
TORSHV
TXC365-401-419-082115-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0085.111108T2027Z-111108T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
227 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CARTHAGE...
EAST CENTRAL RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 224 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MINDEN...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENDERSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PINEHILL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.



LAT...LON 3232 9437 3209 9409 3190 9458 3201 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 225DEG 35KT 3196 9458



23

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bone dry air behind this front and by the time moisture comes back here another front comes thru limiting my rain chances, better moisture east into east texas and Louisiana every time. Seeing humidity west of me near 10 percent. Weather sure is getting extreme and severe though from severe drought to tornadoes to the giant storm in Alaska. Everything seems record breaking from flooding to snow, etc. I wonder if this is our new future in weather? Extreme and Severe?


And then when the economy crashes in 2012, we'll think it's the end of times...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:
Where is Levi?


battening down the hatches for the historic storm
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.