Sean, rare Mediterranean hybrid, and AK superstorm forms; quakes and tornadoes in OK

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:52 PM GMT on November 08, 2011

Share this Blog
23
+

Subtropical Storm Sean formed this morning between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Sean's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to eighteen, tying 2011 with 1969 as the 6th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005, 1933, 1995, 1887, and 2010 have had more named storms. However, 2011 has had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. We've had an average number of hurricanes--six--meaning that only 33% of this year's named storms have made it to hurricane strength. Normally, 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. There have been three major hurricanes in 2011, which is one above average, and the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)--a measure of the destructive potential of this season's storms--has been about 20% above average. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for the unusually high count of named storms, but near-average number of hurricanes and ACE.


Figure 1. The subtropical disturbance that became Subtropical Storm Sean, as seen at 1 pm EST November 7, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Infrared satellite loops reveal that Sean has developed a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center that is increasing in intensity and areal coverage. While the low-level circulation center is exposed to view, a band of thunderstorms is trying to wrap around and close of the center. If this occurs, more substantial strengthening can occur, since the center will be walled off from the dry air that is currently interfering with development. Bermuda radar shows weak rain bands from Sean rippling across the island, with the strongest rain showers well to the island's southwest. Sustained winds at the Bermuda airport have been under 30 mph this morning. Sustained winds near tropical storm force were occurring this morning at buoy 41048, about 300 miles west of Bermuda. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph at 6:50 am EST. Strong upper-level winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over Sean, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Sean is a relatively shallow storm, and the tops of its thunderstorms extend up only to about the 300 mb level. Normally, a tropical storm extends up to about 200 mb. The shallow nature of Sean's thunderstorms mean that the storm is less vulnerable to wind shear than normal, since the storm is not feeling the strongest winds aloft. Ocean temperatures are near 26.5°C (80°F), which is right at the boundary of being warm enough to support tropical storm formation.

Forecast for Sean
Sean will drift slowly west or northwest today and Wednesday. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts wind shear will remain about where it is now through Thursday morning, which should allow Sean to slowly intensify to a 50 mph storm. If Sean can make the transition to a fully tropical storm, more significant intensification can occur. The computer models show little or no development of Sean, with none of our reliable models predicting it will become a hurricane. Bermuda is the only land area that need concern itself with Sean, as a trough of low pressure is expected to absorb the storm on Thursday and lift it quickly to the north or northeast. The center of Sean could pass close enough to Bermuda to bring the island heavy rain squalls and sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph on Thursday and Friday. NHC is giving a 28% chance that Bermuda will receive tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph. High wind shear should destroy Sean on Friday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of the hybrid low named "Rolf" in the Mediterranean Sea at 10:30 UTC November 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Unusual tropical storm-like low forms off coast of France
An unusual hybrid low pressure system has formed in the Mediterranean Sea, about 100 miles south of the coast of France. The low began as an extratropical storm named "Rolf", but has stalled out over the relatively warm waters of the Mediterranean over the past two days, and has acquired tropical characteristics. Heavy thunderstorms have built over the northeast portion of the low, and the storm has a symmetric spiral shape with a cloud-free center, like a tropical storm. The Navy is calling this system Invest 99L. The National Hurricane Center is not responsible for the Mediterranean Sea, so they are not issuing any products for 99L. NOAA's Satellite and Information Service (NESDIS) is giving 99L a tropical classification based on its satellite presentation, with winds in the 40 - 45 mph range. French radar shows heavy rains from 99L are beginning to affect Southeast France and the island of Corsica. The Lion Buoy, located about 100 miles to the west of the center of 99L, recorded sustained winds of tropical storm force, 40 mph, at 00 UTC yesterday. Water temperatures at the buoy were 17°C (63°F), far below the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 22°C during Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. I doubt that NHC would name this system if they did have responsibility for the Mediterranean, due to the cold water temperatures.

"Rolf" is expected to move slowly northwards into the coast of South France by Wednesday night. Meteo France is predicting heavy rains of 30 - 40 mm/hr (1.2 - 1.6"/hr) will affect the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday, with sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 75 mph.


Figure 3. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over water of 21.5°C. "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to "extremely strong westerly wind." The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algeirs, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

According to research published by Gaertner et al. (2007), an increase in ocean temperatures of 3°C in the Mediterranean by the end of the century could lead to hurricanes forming there. Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain, ran 9 different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could reach 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Meteo France has an interesting animation of the predicted winds and temperatures over the next few days.

Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations,, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image from the Tipton, OK tornado of November 7, 2011, showing a classic hook echo.


Video 1. Reed Timmer video of the November 7, 2011 tornado in Tipton, OK. Here's another excellent video of the Tipton tornado and a tornado near Manitou, OK from Texas Storm Chasers. Storm chasing IS dangerous: one storm chaser had his vehicle overturned, but got into another vehicle and continued the chase.

Shaken and stirred: an earthquake and tornado for Oklahoma
It was a rare multi-natural hazard day for Oklahoma yesterday, as the state experienced both a tornado and an earthquake, six hours apart. The damaging magnitude 5.6 earthquake that shook the state Saturday night spawned a magnitude 4.7 aftershock at 8:46 pm CST yesterday, 44 miles east of Oklahoma City. And at 2:47 pm CST, a tornado touched down in Southwest Oklahoma near Tipton. The tornado destroyed an Oklahoma State University agricultural office, and damaged a hay barn at a dairy farm. No injuries were reported. The UK MailOnline has an interesting article showing the radar image from Saturday's quake, which captured a massive groups of birds and insects that took flight after the ground shook.

This afternoon, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Southeast Oklahoma, East Texas, Southeast Missouri, and most of Arkansas in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather, thanks to a strong low pressure system moving across the Plains. During the late afternoon, severe thunderstorms with high winds and large hail and expected over the region, and we cannot rule out an isolated tornado.

Bering Sea superstorm targets Alaska
A massive blizzard the National Weather Service is calling one of the most severe Bering Sea storms on record is gathering strength today to the west of Alaska. The storm is expected to "bomb" to a central pressure of 945 - 950 mb Tuesday night, and to 940 mb on Wednesday. These pressures, characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, will be strong enough to generate sustained winds of Category 1 hurricane force over the waters to the west of Alaska, with winds of 50 - 70 mph expected along portions of the coast. Nome, Alaska is expecting a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet. Waves of 15 - 25 feet with ice on top will batter the shores, causing severe damage to the coast.

Jeff Masters

Chaser Cap (OIG)
This is a screen capture taken during a chase near Lawton, OK.
Chaser Cap

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 189 - 139

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7Blog Index

189. hurricanehunter27
11:42 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Really nice hook forming on Twarned Cell in NW LA. Just south of Shreveport.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
188. WeatherfanPR
11:36 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Check your wumail



ok
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1583
187. stormwatcherCI
11:30 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



I don't know where but I read here that there is a new blog or website I don't know where it is and there is where a lot of people has migrated.
Check your wumail
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8346
186. HurrikanEB
11:30 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
I've been trying to follow along with the Mediterranean system since yesterday, but can someone just clarify it a little bit for me?

As I understand the satellite based... interpretations.. have suggested that the system is "tropical," but have any of the official weather agencies (Berlin, NHC, or other) actually described it as a tropical storm? (I know it's out of NHC jurisdiction, so they probably don't have much to say)

Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1336
185. WeatherfanPR
11:28 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting Articuno:
where'd everybody go



I don't know where but I read here that there is a new blog or website I don't know where it is and there is where a lot of people has migrated.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1583
184. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:26 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting Articuno:
where'd everybody go

I don't know.

KoritheMan had a good idea the other day, making his own Tropical Cyclone Reports for the storms that developed during this season. I think I'll follow suit and do my own.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
183. Articuno
11:24 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
where'd everybody go
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2413
182. CosmicEvents
11:21 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Levi....I realize that few in Alaska really live in igloos.......but for those who do, are they automatically considered to be "hunkered down" at all times, or is there more that they do over normal to "hunker down" when these storms approach?
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5577
181. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:02 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



yeah... poor penguins :(

lol, penguins don't live in Alaska, they live in Antartica. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
180. stormpetrol
11:02 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
179. WeatherNerdPR
11:01 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



yeah... poor penguins :(

There aren't any penguins in Alaska...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5680
178. MTWX
11:01 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Western and Central Arkansas you're up!! As night falls continue to monitor this potentially dangerous situation!


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN OK...WRN/CENTRAL AR...NERN TX AND NWRN LA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875...

VALID 082148Z - 082315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 875 CONTINUES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD FROM
WRN AR SSWWD INTO FAR SERN AR AND NERN TX. THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR TUL/MLC SWD TO CLL.
THOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION HAVE RESTRICTED SOME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL AR... STRONG FORCING COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR/WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ROTATING
STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SWRN AR SWWD INTO NERN TX. IN
THIS REGION...MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR NR 50
KT ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH LOW LEVEL SRH AROUND 250
M2/S2...TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAVE STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO
LINES/CLUSTERS...WHICH WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIND DAMAGE AND
ISOLATED HAIL.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
177. WeatherfanPR
11:00 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Hello Everyone. Here I share this video again for those who have not seen it yet. This is a little documental I made about Hurricane Earl that brushed Puerto Rico in 2010. I hope you like it.


Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1583
176. Cotillion
10:59 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



yeah... poor penguins :(


If you mean hockey, then sure (though I wouldn't express any sympathy).

If you mean the animal, wrong hemisphere.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
175. stormpetrol
10:59 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting VirgilSolozzo:
Yes....I imagine you would....jmo


I think there is still potential for the SW caribbean to produce one more tropical storm before the season ends, just saying....jmo also!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
174. trHUrrIXC5MMX
10:56 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting Cotillion:
948mb extratropical low is very strong. G'luck to Alaskans.

Side note - can polar lows in the North Pacific get as strong as those in the North Atlantic (920mb level)?



yeah... poor penguins :(
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
173. Cotillion
10:56 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting yqt1001:


Do we have the same definition of polar low? What I think when I hear the word polar low. I don't think hat they could possibly get to 920mb...


Yes, you'Re right, polar low got stuck in my head for some reason - think someone mentioned it in reference to the Med storm earlier.

Just a general extratropical cyclone.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
172. yqt1001
10:54 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting Cotillion:
948mb extratropical low is very strong. G'luck to Alaskans.

Side note - can polar lows in the North Pacific get as strong as those in the North Atlantic (920mb level)?


Do we have the same definition of polar low? What I think when I hear the word polar low. I don't think that they could possibly get to 920mb...
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
171. islander101010
10:53 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Alex and Ike both had this issue. That is because both of these systems underwent rapid intensification in the GOMEX, but instead of strengthening winds, they became absolutely massive but the winds never caught up because of it. Basically, the wind field increased instead of the winds themselves actually increasing.
scary what we could be dealing with the next few yrs
Quoting VirgilSolozzo:
Yes....I imagine you would....jmo
me too one more ever since the landfaller in burma weathers been odd
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4566
170. MTWX
10:52 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Talk about a crazy week in weather.

- One of the largest Alaskan Systems in history

- A tropical storm in the Mediterranean with a tornado risk for France

- A spring type severe weather outbreak for the southern plains

definitely been interesting!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
169. Cotillion
10:51 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I imagine they could, since lows with minimum barometric pressure in the 930s have been recorded before.


Yeah, I would too. Pacific pressures are generally lower anyway.

Usually, you hear most of the stronger storms in terms of pressure in the NATL, but that may just be bigger coverage (i.e. NATL storms will hit Europe, NPAC storms would hit eastern Russia or Alaska with less people).

Just seen Alaska's lowest pressure ever recorded as 927mb, so guess that answers it.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
168. VirgilSolozzo
10:43 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol:
I would watch 12N/78W for some potential over the next few days!
Yes....I imagine you would....jmo
Member Since: November 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
167. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:42 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting Cotillion:


Actually, 948mb would be typically equivalent to a Category Three.

It may be a lower end Category Four at best.

You're right after looking at the SSHS, but its close enough :P

Category 3: 945-964 mbar.
Category 4: 920-944 mbar.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
166. Cotillion
10:41 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He's saying that 948 mbar. is equivalent to Category 4 hurricane pressure, which it is.


Actually, 948mb would be typically equivalent to a Category Three.

It may be a lower end Category Four at best.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
165. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:40 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting Cotillion:
948mb extratropical low is very strong. G'luck to Alaskans.

Side note - can polar lows in the North Pacific get as strong as those in the North Atlantic (920mb level)?

I imagine they could, since lows with minimum barometric pressure in the 930s have been recorded before.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
164. Cotillion
10:39 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
948mb extratropical low is very strong. G'luck to Alaskans.

Side note - can polar lows in the North Pacific get as strong as those in the North Atlantic (920mb level)?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
163. stormpetrol
10:30 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
I would watch 12N/78W for some potential over the next few days!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
162. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:24 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Size is a huge reason that Hurricane Irene struck much weaker than first anticipated, which of course is, to say the least, a good thing. Its huge sign gave it a large wind field, and it took longer for faster winds to cover a larger area. Yes, it had the pressure of a Category 3/4, but the winds were never able to catch up because of its size. Additionally, Irene began to encounter unfavorable conditions shortly after departing from the Bahamas, limited any potential intensification.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
161. CybrTeddy
10:17 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

Oh ok. But didn't Alex have a 948mb pressure. And he was only a category 2...


Alex and Ike both had this issue. That is because both of these systems underwent rapid intensification in the GOMEX, but instead of strengthening winds, they became absolutely massive but the winds never caught up because of it. Basically, the wind field increased instead of the winds themselves actually increasing.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
160. yqt1001
10:17 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

Oh ok. But didn't Alex have a 948mb pressure. And he was only a category 2...


Pressure depends on the size of the storm and how tight the core is. 940mb pressure usually means category 4, but Irene was 948mb as a category 1 hurricane at one point I believe.

Edit: She was 950mb and 80mph.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
158. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:16 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

Oh ok. But didn't Alex have a 948mb pressure. And he was only a category 2...

Well, a "typical" pressure for a Category 4 storm is what he is talking about. Alex is an exception.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
157. CybrTeddy
10:15 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, you're not understanding.

What CybrTed is saying is that the storm up there has a pressure equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane down here.


Bingo.

Said equal to pressure of a Category 4, obviously it is purely cold core extra-tropical.

I know a thing or two about hurricanes to know that they don't form by Alaska in November ;)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
155. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:14 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:

Not, it's not a category 4 storm. It can't be a hurricane up there. It's a different type of storm.

No, you're not understanding.

What CybrTed is saying is that the storm up there has a pressure equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane down here.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
153. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:11 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:
948mb is not a category 4 hurricane up in Alaska, CybrTeddy. It is much too cold for those types storms.

He's saying that 948 mbar. is equivalent to Category 4 hurricane pressure, which it is.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31989
152. hurricanehunter27
10:11 PM GMT on November 08, 2011
Quoting GeorgiaWx65:
948mb is not a category 4 hurricane up in Alaska, CybrTeddy. It is much too cold for those types storms.
:/. Should I even say anything about this statment?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
I hope the crab fleet out at Dutch is taking precautions. Looks sorta nasty. Cold and nasty.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope the Northwestern and TimeBandit are not braving this system as I'm sure those waves are in the 30' to 50' range.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Quoting Neapolitan:
Seems like NWS is taking this one seriously. That's probably a good thing:
------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

...ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
SEA STORMS ON RECORD...


A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.

AT 9 AM THIS MORNING THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

THE STORM WILL BRING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS TO ALL OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEST COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION OVER MANY PARTS OF THE
COASTLINE. THE WIND WILL PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON
SOUND...RAISING SEA LEVELS TO 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN NORTON
SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. THE EXTREMELY STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH WAVES WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGH WATER
FARTHER INLAND.

OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 MPH. ALONG THE CHUKCHI COAST
...WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. IN THE NOME AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS
60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. ALMOST ALL OTHER
AREAS OF THE WEST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
OF AT LEAST 50 TO 60 MPH.

WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH
EROSION IS EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

1. THE BERING SEA COAST FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO POINT
ROMANOF...ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SHORES.
2. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON
SOUND WESTWARD TO AND INCLUDING THE BERING STRAIT COAST
AND LITTLE DIOMEDE ISLAND.
3. SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
4. THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE.

THIS INCLUDES THE VILLAGES OF NOME AND KIVALINA WHERE
MAJOR DAMAGE FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS
IS EXPECTED. THE VILLAGE OF SAVOONGA ON THE NORTH SHORE
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE PROTECTED FROM COASTAL
FLOODING BUT WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH SEA LEVELS IN NORTON SOUND WILL CAUSE
COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE.

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER MOST AREAS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA MAINLAND...WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PEOPLE ARE URGED
TO SEEK SHELTER NOW AND POSTPONE TRAVEL INTO THE BACK COUNTRY
UNTIL THE STORM ABATES.


ALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD SEEK SAFETY IN PORT IMMEDIATELY
IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. IN AREAS WHERE BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...SMALL BOATS
AND PERSONAL PROPERTY SHOULD BE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM THE
SHORE AND TO HIGHER GROUND.

AGAIN...THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
STORM OF AN EPIC MAGNITUDE RARELY EXPERIENCED. ALL PEOPLE
IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD THEIR LIVES
AND PROPERTY.


YIKES!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Believe it or not we've seen worse. We had a 931mb low out there in the 1990s. It delivered a 147mph wind gust to Dutch Harbor.


Truly insane though. And its massive too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Quoting Levi32:




Thank doesn't look good for Nome if I'm reading that right..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Thanks for that info Levi! Keep us posted. I wonder what the surge map looks like?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for that info Levi! Keep us posted. I wonder what the surge map looks like?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice video, Dr. M! Argh. Watching the chasers just kills me though. That's where I've wanted to be for so stinkin long, but here I am in a cubicle waiting for the clock to hit five, sneaking looks at radar loops whenever I can. Oh well! Gotta make a dollar somehow. :)
Thanks for posting, Dr. Masters! Your blog gives me the mental escape I need, and brightens up my day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


948?? That's the equal to a Category 4 hurricane in pressure.


Believe it or not we've seen worse. We had a 931mb low out there in the 1990s. It delivered a 147mph wind gust to Dutch Harbor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
139. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm (1000 hPa) located at 42.8N 6.5E, or 112 km southeast of Marseille (France), 205 km west northwest of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 45 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary

Both shear and dry air seem to have taken their toll on 01M/99L. Latest HVIS data indicated a tilted vortex with the low level circulation center is somewhat displaced to the southwest (probably forced by modest northwest/westerly shear at higher levels). Current thinking is that if any warm-core structure is present, it will be a tilted one. Nevertheless, latest SAB update indicated another increase in strength and latest ASCAT data reveals 40-45 kt in the northern quadrant (some arrows not contaminated by ongoing DMC). The question arises, if this is not more typical for a subtropical feature due to ongoing modest shear. The system also has looped during the past few hours with only marginal movement to the north. A band of intense convection affects parts of SE-France right now and heavy to isolated excessive rainfall will be an imminent risk, next to an isolated tornado event with augmented LL shear! Further bands with heavy rainfall may affect southeastern France/west Ligurian coast during the night as the cyclone remains just offshore. Future intensity signals are mixed for 01M, as shear abates somewhat but it remains atop marginal cooler sea surface temperatures and it has drier air to the west to work with. Soundings upstream also confirm a slow warming trend at mid-levels. We would not be surprised to see a more pulsating activity of DMC next to the center/along the bands during the next 12-24h, but overall signs are more against another intense flare-up of persistent DMC. Models still show a stalling or westward moving system while weakening ahead of another upper trough over the far west Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 189 - 139

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
79 °F
Scattered Clouds