Sean, rare Mediterranean hybrid, and AK superstorm forms; quakes and tornadoes in OK

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:52 PM GMT on November 08, 2011

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Subtropical Storm Sean formed this morning between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Sean's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to eighteen, tying 2011 with 1969 as the 6th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005, 1933, 1995, 1887, and 2010 have had more named storms. However, 2011 has had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. We've had an average number of hurricanes--six--meaning that only 33% of this year's named storms have made it to hurricane strength. Normally, 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. There have been three major hurricanes in 2011, which is one above average, and the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)--a measure of the destructive potential of this season's storms--has been about 20% above average. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for the unusually high count of named storms, but near-average number of hurricanes and ACE.


Figure 1. The subtropical disturbance that became Subtropical Storm Sean, as seen at 1 pm EST November 7, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Infrared satellite loops reveal that Sean has developed a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center that is increasing in intensity and areal coverage. While the low-level circulation center is exposed to view, a band of thunderstorms is trying to wrap around and close of the center. If this occurs, more substantial strengthening can occur, since the center will be walled off from the dry air that is currently interfering with development. Bermuda radar shows weak rain bands from Sean rippling across the island, with the strongest rain showers well to the island's southwest. Sustained winds at the Bermuda airport have been under 30 mph this morning. Sustained winds near tropical storm force were occurring this morning at buoy 41048, about 300 miles west of Bermuda. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph at 6:50 am EST. Strong upper-level winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over Sean, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Sean is a relatively shallow storm, and the tops of its thunderstorms extend up only to about the 300 mb level. Normally, a tropical storm extends up to about 200 mb. The shallow nature of Sean's thunderstorms mean that the storm is less vulnerable to wind shear than normal, since the storm is not feeling the strongest winds aloft. Ocean temperatures are near 26.5°C (80°F), which is right at the boundary of being warm enough to support tropical storm formation.

Forecast for Sean
Sean will drift slowly west or northwest today and Wednesday. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts wind shear will remain about where it is now through Thursday morning, which should allow Sean to slowly intensify to a 50 mph storm. If Sean can make the transition to a fully tropical storm, more significant intensification can occur. The computer models show little or no development of Sean, with none of our reliable models predicting it will become a hurricane. Bermuda is the only land area that need concern itself with Sean, as a trough of low pressure is expected to absorb the storm on Thursday and lift it quickly to the north or northeast. The center of Sean could pass close enough to Bermuda to bring the island heavy rain squalls and sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph on Thursday and Friday. NHC is giving a 28% chance that Bermuda will receive tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph. High wind shear should destroy Sean on Friday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of the hybrid low named "Rolf" in the Mediterranean Sea at 10:30 UTC November 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Unusual tropical storm-like low forms off coast of France
An unusual hybrid low pressure system has formed in the Mediterranean Sea, about 100 miles south of the coast of France. The low began as an extratropical storm named "Rolf", but has stalled out over the relatively warm waters of the Mediterranean over the past two days, and has acquired tropical characteristics. Heavy thunderstorms have built over the northeast portion of the low, and the storm has a symmetric spiral shape with a cloud-free center, like a tropical storm. The Navy is calling this system Invest 99L. The National Hurricane Center is not responsible for the Mediterranean Sea, so they are not issuing any products for 99L. NOAA's Satellite and Information Service (NESDIS) is giving 99L a tropical classification based on its satellite presentation, with winds in the 40 - 45 mph range. French radar shows heavy rains from 99L are beginning to affect Southeast France and the island of Corsica. The Lion Buoy, located about 100 miles to the west of the center of 99L, recorded sustained winds of tropical storm force, 40 mph, at 00 UTC yesterday. Water temperatures at the buoy were 17°C (63°F), far below the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 22°C during Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. I doubt that NHC would name this system if they did have responsibility for the Mediterranean, due to the cold water temperatures.

"Rolf" is expected to move slowly northwards into the coast of South France by Wednesday night. Meteo France is predicting heavy rains of 30 - 40 mm/hr (1.2 - 1.6"/hr) will affect the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday, with sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 75 mph.


Figure 3. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over water of 21.5°C. "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to "extremely strong westerly wind." The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algeirs, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

According to research published by Gaertner et al. (2007), an increase in ocean temperatures of 3°C in the Mediterranean by the end of the century could lead to hurricanes forming there. Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain, ran 9 different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could reach 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Meteo France has an interesting animation of the predicted winds and temperatures over the next few days.

Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations,, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image from the Tipton, OK tornado of November 7, 2011, showing a classic hook echo.


Video 1. Reed Timmer video of the November 7, 2011 tornado in Tipton, OK. Here's another excellent video of the Tipton tornado and a tornado near Manitou, OK from Texas Storm Chasers. Storm chasing IS dangerous: one storm chaser had his vehicle overturned, but got into another vehicle and continued the chase.

Shaken and stirred: an earthquake and tornado for Oklahoma
It was a rare multi-natural hazard day for Oklahoma yesterday, as the state experienced both a tornado and an earthquake, six hours apart. The damaging magnitude 5.6 earthquake that shook the state Saturday night spawned a magnitude 4.7 aftershock at 8:46 pm CST yesterday, 44 miles east of Oklahoma City. And at 2:47 pm CST, a tornado touched down in Southwest Oklahoma near Tipton. The tornado destroyed an Oklahoma State University agricultural office, and damaged a hay barn at a dairy farm. No injuries were reported. The UK MailOnline has an interesting article showing the radar image from Saturday's quake, which captured a massive groups of birds and insects that took flight after the ground shook.

This afternoon, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed Southeast Oklahoma, East Texas, Southeast Missouri, and most of Arkansas in its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather, thanks to a strong low pressure system moving across the Plains. During the late afternoon, severe thunderstorms with high winds and large hail and expected over the region, and we cannot rule out an isolated tornado.

Bering Sea superstorm targets Alaska
A massive blizzard the National Weather Service is calling one of the most severe Bering Sea storms on record is gathering strength today to the west of Alaska. The storm is expected to "bomb" to a central pressure of 945 - 950 mb Tuesday night, and to 940 mb on Wednesday. These pressures, characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, will be strong enough to generate sustained winds of Category 1 hurricane force over the waters to the west of Alaska, with winds of 50 - 70 mph expected along portions of the coast. Nome, Alaska is expecting a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet. Waves of 15 - 25 feet with ice on top will batter the shores, causing severe damage to the coast.

Jeff Masters

Chaser Cap (OIG)
This is a screen capture taken during a chase near Lawton, OK.
Chaser Cap

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289. MTWX
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
MTWX Sky and Telescope updates their "This week's Sky at a Glance" page every Friday. Check it out! It covers all the basics for skywatchers.


The planet roundup is at the bottom of the page.

Thanks for the link!
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From the BBC...

Relief efforts in Pakistan to assist 5 million people affected by recent flooding are being hampered by lack of funds.

I think we will hear this more and more, as Countries have to deal with billion-dollar weather events fast and furious.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Maybe he's laying back on a lawn chair Grothar. Or better yet a hammock :)

Yeah! That's it.
Thanks!

Actually, it's a real pretty night.
Very bright outside.
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Quoting pottery:

I only noticed it because I fell over....


See how you are!
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Maybe pottery's laying back on a lawn chair Grothar. Or better yet a hammock :)
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Quoting Grothar:


I didn't know you could bend you neck that far back at your age, pott.

I only noticed it because I fell over....
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Quoting pottery:

Strange, it's overhead here too!

:):))


I didn't know you could bend you neck that far back at your age, pott.
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MTWX Sky and Telescope updates their "This week's Sky at a Glance" page every Friday. Check it out! It covers all the basics for skywatchers.


The planet roundup is at the bottom of the page.
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Quoting Grothar:


I almost snapped my neck looking at it. It is straight up. Thanks, Brian.

Strange, it's overhead here too!

:):))
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280. MTWX
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
MTWX glad you got a good look! Nice picture!

Thank You! Wish I would have known they would be that close tonight, I would have brought my camera to work with me!
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MTWX glad you got a good look! Nice picture!
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Welcome Grothar. Glad you liked! And thanks for dropping by my blog. You're always welcome. Hope you are feeling better.
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277. MTWX
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Jupiter is brighter than normal being near perihelion. Last fall Jupiter was the brightest since 1963 and Jupiter's brightness peaked at 0.4% less bright than last year on October 28th. Jupiter is still brighter now than it will be until 2021.

Don't have my good camera with me, but managed to snap this one with my phone as the clouds parted..
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Jupiter is brighter than normal being near perihelion. Last fall Jupiter was the brightest since 1963 and Jupiter's brightness peaked at 0.4% less bright than last year on October 28th. Jupiter is still brighter now than it will be until 2021.


I almost snapped my neck looking at it. It is straight up. Thanks, Brian.
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sar2401, aspectre's straight line extrapolations are useful as they show where the right side of the storm's current heading is. To the right of the extrapolated line (to the north in this case) Sean's windfield is directing its swells. That area is currently under a high surf advisory because of how Sean's swells are being directed by its current motion. Not the motion that Sean will make as he turns.
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Quoting sar2401:


Have a good view of it here in Alabama too. The sky seems unusually clear tonight and both the Moon and Jupiter look brighter than normal.


Jupiter is brighter than normal being near perihelion. Last fall Jupiter was the brightest since 1963 and Jupiter's brightness peaked at 0.4% less bright than last year on October 28th. Jupiter is still brighter now than it will be until 2021.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


That's too bad! Looks really cool now and aligning better.


Have a good view of it here in Alabama too. The sky seems unusually clear tonight and both the Moon and Jupiter look brighter than normal.
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272. j2008
Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah it did, but it pretty much fell apart


Most storms do when they make landfall, at least it wasnt as pathetic as Don. At least 1M had a good exciteing life that most STS turned TS dont get.
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Aspectre, your maps are always kind of interesting, but the one on Sean is a real laugher. Hitting the coast of Florida in eight days? :) Still, I guess it shows how straight line projections can produce some pretty weird results.
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Quoting j2008:

Anyone have info on if 1M made landfall, sure looks like it has.
yeah it did, but it pretty much fell apart

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Quoting MTWX:
Some current dewpoints on MS side:
Greenville- 64
Hattiesburg- 61
Biloxi- 66
Jackson- 65
McComb- 65
Natchez- 67

Definitely still plenty of energy out there!


Yeah, not quite as high here outside Montgomery but still too high for a line of storms that's supposed to be falling apart as it approaches. It seems like squall lines fading out as soon as they hit the Alabama state line happens quite a bit, so I'm hoping it will this time as well. Still if you draw a line straight from the center of those storms to Montgomery, it's a straight shot. I guess we'll see early tomorrow what happens.
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Quoting MTWX:

Too cloudy here. :(


That's too bad! Looks really cool now and aligning better.
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267. MTWX
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Sean is looking pretty good.

Another thing looking good is Jupiter and the moon close together tonight. The moon is closing in on Jupiter about 1/2 degree per hour.

Too cloudy here. :(
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Sean is looking pretty good.

Another thing looking good is Jupiter and the moon close together tonight. The moon is closing in on Jupiter about 1/2 degree per hour.
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265. j2008
Quoting Skyepony:
01M is beginning to look like it's had too much land interaction. Interesting is the sister storm over land just east of 01M, how like waves they are supporting each other..

Anyone have info on if 1M made landfall, sure looks like it has.
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Since the previous mapping for 8Nov_6amGMT :
27.0n69.6w, 27.6n69.4w, 27.8n69.5w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Sean's_12amGMT_ATCF
27.5n69.4w, 27.6n69.4w, 27.8n69.6w,27.8n69.9w are now the most recent positions
Starting 8Nov_12amGMT and ending 9Nov_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormSean's path,
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Sean's travel-speed was 3mph(4.8k/h) on a heading of 270.1degrees(W)
TS.Sean was headed toward passage over HutchinsonIsland,Florida ~8days16hours from now

Copy&paste kxfl, ggt, 27.4n69.5w-27.5n69.4w, 27.5n69.4w-27.6n69.4w, 27.6n69.4w-27.8n69.6w, 27.8n69.6w-27.8n69.9w, 27.8n69.6w-27.4n80.264w, fpr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

And for a closer look at Sean's path over the past 48hours
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263. MTWX
Some current dewpoints on MS side:
Greenville- 64
Hattiesburg- 61
Biloxi- 66
Jackson- 65
McComb- 65
Natchez- 67

Definitely still plenty of energy out there!
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262. MTWX
SPC possibly extending Tornado watch into Mississippi???

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH NERN LA AND SERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 877...

VALID 090321Z - 090445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 877 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE LA PORTION OF WW 877. STORMS IN NERN LA INCLUDING
OUACHITA PARISH WILL APPROACH THE EDGE OF THE WW BY 04Z...AND NE LA
PORTION OF THE WW CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FARTHER EAST AS NECESSARY.


BROKEN LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN LA INTO SRN AR IS MOVING EAST AT
25-35 KT. STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF LA
WHERE HODOGRAPHS REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT INTO SRN
AR WHERE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS FARTHER SOUTH DESPITE
LARGER HODOGRAPHS ALONG NWD MIGRATING LLJ. STORMS IN NERN LA ARE
MOVING EAST AT 35 KT AND WILL APPROACH ERN EDGE OF WW 877 BY 04Z.
THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY
CONTINUE EAST OF PRIMARY MOIST AXIS. HOWEVER...CONCERN IS THAT
STORMS COULD POSE SOME SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES EAST OF CURRENT WW
.
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The low in the Mediterranean looks like an occluded low to me.
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260. MTWX
Quoting sar2401:
Am I the only one that cringes a bit when I see tornado chaser videos with the people involved cheering and high-fiving each other while they are looking at a storm causing damage and possibly injuries and death? I know that they are doing this for a living (in many cases), and hauling around adrenaline junkies for a fee, which makes me cringe even more. As a SkyWarn Storm Spotter and ham radio operator, I do the same thing they are doing (chasing a storm) but I'm constantly on the phone and radio, updating the NWS and local EMS about what I'm seeing, the direction of travel, and apparent width. I get paid nothing, nor do I want to get paid, since I consider it a public service. Not saying there shouldn't be "professional" storm chasers, but I do wish they'd hold down the whole college frat atmosphere when they are on video. I'd also hope they have some kind of contact with the NWS to relay to them what they're seeing rather than just trying to get the best video.

Your not the only one. I'm in the same boat as you.

Quoting sar2401:
Watching this front advance from Louisiana to Alabama is getting me a little nervous. The low was supposed to pull north and take most of the rain and instability with it. However, it's still 64 degrees now (after a high of 81, and the dewpoint is creeping up into the low 50's. We are getting steady WSW winds of 10 mph with gusts to 21, and the air has that tropical smell, if those of you that live in the South understand what I mean. I'm hoping the storms weaken before they get to west-central Alabama, but I'm beginning to have my doubts.

I am too. As the system approches the MS River it appears to actually be strengthening. Unless this is the last hurrah... SPC is still standing by their prediction that this thing will collapse upon itself over the next couple of hours, but I'm not too sure! Dew Point here is currently 55 degrees...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Maybe because people actually wised up and starting ignoring them, like you're supposed to?


Dang, accidentally minus-ed you. I hope you're right. +1
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Really nothing explosive or durastic occurig with Sean, no real reason to stick around.
Night everyone...
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TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1000 PM EST TUE NOV 08 2011

THE STRUCTURE OF SEAN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A PRIMARY BAND OF RAGGED CONVECTION
THAT WRAPS MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...WHILE THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ARE SEEN IN A SEPARATE BAND
DISPLACED ABOUT 175 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. WHILE SEAN IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MARGINAL
SSTS...THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE COOLER THAN NORMAL...
WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ENOUGH CONVECTION TO ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING
AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHOWING SEAN PEAKING
IN AROUND 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AND
CLOSE TO THE SPC3 SHIPS ENSEMBLE. AFTER 48 HOURS SEAN WILL MOVE
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS. SEAN SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A SURFACE
FRONT SHORTLY AFTER TRANSITION...AND IN FACT SOME GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS SHOW THAT OCCURRING EARLIER THAN INDICATED HERE.

SEAN HAS MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/03. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS. SEAN SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY
48 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT THE NHC FORECAST HAS ONLY
BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND
STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON SEVERAL PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OBSERVATIONS ABOVE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT NOAA BUOY 41048.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 27.9N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 28.0N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 28.6N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 29.5N 70.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 36.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting sar2401:
Watching this front advance from Louisiana to Alabama is getting me a little nervous. The low was supposed to pull north and take most of the rain and instability with it. However, it's still 64 degrees now (after a high of 81, and the dewpoint is creeping up into the low 50's. We are getting steady WSW winds of 10 mph with gusts to 21, and the air has that tropical smell, if those of you that live in the South understand what I mean. I'm hoping the storms weaken before they get to west-central Alabama, but I'm beginning to have my doubts.


lol, I actually want a bit of severe weather. Not tornadoes though.
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Watching this front advance from Louisiana to Alabama is getting me a little nervous. The low was supposed to pull north and take most of the rain and instability with it. However, it's still 64 degrees now (after a high of 81, and the dewpoint is creeping up into the low 50's. We are getting steady WSW winds of 10 mph with gusts to 21, and the air has that tropical smell, if those of you that live in the South understand what I mean. I'm hoping the storms weaken before they get to west-central Alabama, but I'm beginning to have my doubts.
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Am I the only one that cringes a bit when I see tornado chaser videos with the people involved cheering and high-fiving each other while they are looking at a storm causing damage and possibly injuries and death? I know that they are doing this for a living (in many cases), and hauling around adrenaline junkies for a fee, which makes me cringe even more. As a SkyWarn Storm Spotter and ham radio operator, I do the same thing they are doing (chasing a storm) but I'm constantly on the phone and radio, updating the NWS and local EMS about what I'm seeing, the direction of travel, and apparent width. I get paid nothing, nor do I want to get paid, since I consider it a public service. Not saying there shouldn't be "professional" storm chasers, but I do wish they'd hold down the whole college frat atmosphere when they are on video. I'd also hope they have some kind of contact with the NWS to relay to them what they're seeing rather than just trying to get the best video.
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Quoting Vincent4989:

You're the reason why when i was logged out, TomTaylor's posts were always hidden.
TomTaylor's just kidding to entertain the blog, not troll.
No, I wasn't joking at all. The Mediterranean system was not purely tropical. Satellite derived upper level winds and model analysis of the upper atmosphere both clearly showed that an upper level low was present aloft over the system. An ASCAT pass also revealed the strongest winds were a good distance removed from the center. Water temperatures were a good 10 to 15 (17 according to the buoy Dr. Masters mentioned in the blog) degrees Fahrenheit below the well established standard of 80 degrees. Finally, there was no AMSU pass to confirm whether or not the was warm core aloft, the only thing we have are satellite and model analysis of winds which show an ULL atop of the system. ULLs are just about always associated with anomalously cold air, which would favor the idea of this being cold core aloft.



CIMSS upper level winds showing an ULL over the storm




Yesterday's ASCAT pass showing the radius of maximum winds well removed from the center






While it was listed as tropical on the NESDIS/SSD site, people are forgetting that was by the Dvorak classification...meaning the Dvorak computer algorithm looked at the cloud pattern to determine it's classification. In other words, there wasn't any meteorological forecaster there to look at other factors such as upper level characteristics, SSTs, or wind field characteristics.


There is no doubt the Mediterranean system had many tropical characteristics, but it also had a few key subtropical characteristics according to the NHC's definition so it can not be said that this was a purely tropical storm. While classification of these types of storms can be pretty subjective, and you could really argue it either way, had it been under the NHC's jurisdiction I believe it would have most likely been listed as a subtropical storm due to the factors I mentioned above. Dr. Masters also seems to agree by referring to the storm as a hybrid in the title and mentioning that the NHC probably wouldn't have named it had it been under their jurisdiction.
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250. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Unfriendly:


glitch or ships nearby... or pirates relaxing on the buoy. most likely


I was thinking the same thing, though hadn't looked to see what's been shaking.

It was really a distraction on the way to watch The Great Bering Sea Storm bomb..
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Quoting Articuno:

New blog?
New site?
imustknow


Are you worthy?
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Sean will intensify, but it all depends on if he can organize good enough in the next 48 hours before the trough begins to influence him, and upper level winds become less favorable for strengthening.
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247. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm (1007 hPa) located at 42.6N 6.4E, or 112 km southeast of Marseille (France), 205 km west northwest of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 45 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary

Surface data indicates that the persistent outer band in the NE quadrant of "01M/99L" may have been able to mix down stronger winds than previously anticipated with Porquerolles reporting steady winds of 50 knots and gusts of 80 knots. With more coastal stations showing steady winds only marginally weaker, "01M/99L" may have peaked in intensity this afternoon/evening as a strong tropical-like cyclone (we're not sure if indeed true tropical warm-core characteristica were present during that time with a vertically tilted/sheared core, a more asymmetric wind field and absence of DMC next to the center for a couple of hours). Since then, the convection weakened significantly but a 23:00 UTC ASCAT still indicates winds around 40 kt. Hence, the current intensity rating still exceeds the latest Dvorak classification. Banding structure remains good and pulsating convective re-development next to the center is still possible during the rest of the outlook. Excessive rainfall and severe wind gusts continue to affect the coast of S-France during the following hours although some weakening may occur as a consequence of weakening DMC.

There is no major change regarding path and intensity forecast compared to the 18 UTC update and hence this will be the last regular update. More informations will become available in the next Severe Weather Outlook Day 1.

If any unexpected intensification occurs, another update will be issued. Otherwise, we will now return to the regular outlook style.
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Just been lurking here the last 2 months. Wunderground is still the best one stop for real-time weather and tropical information, but socializing on the blogs over here has become, well, to much work. The other site has a main blog, and is much less hostile and laid bake than doc's blog, and several featured social blogs.

With that said, I respect and enjoy learning from all the bloggers that frequent this blog. My choice is to visit and learn on both blog's. Why choose one or the other?

scooster67

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Quoting Articuno:
Hey taz
how's it up there in ca



doing ok
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Hey taz
how's it up there in ca
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
108 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

AKZ207>214-090915-
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-LOWER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-
BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY-
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA-
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST-
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS-
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-YUKON DELTA-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG...
NOATAK...KIANA...RED DOG MINE...KOTZEBUE...SELAWIK...NOORVIK...
BUCKLAND...DEERING...CANDLE...COUNCIL...HAYCOCK.. .
PILGRIM SPRINGS...SERPENTINE HOT SPRINGS...TAYLOR...NOME...
WHITE MOUNTAIN...GOLOVIN...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL...
ELIM...KOYUK...SHAKTOOLIK...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA... BREVIG MISSION...
TELLER...WALES...DIOMEDE...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK...
ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...
MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...PITKAS POINT
108 PM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011

...ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING
SEA STORMS ON RECORD...

A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
AT 9 AM THIS MORNING THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

THE STORM WILL BRING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS TO ALL OF THE
ALASKA WEST COAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEST COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION OVER MANY PARTS OF THE
COASTLINE. THE WIND WILL PUSH LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON
SOUND...RAISING SEA LEVELS TO 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN NORTON
SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. THE EXTREMELY STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH WAVES WHICH WILL PUSH THE HIGH WATER
FARTHER INLAND.

OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 MPH. ALONG THE CHUKCHI COAST...WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. IN THE NOME AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS
60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. ALMOST ALL OTHER
AREAS OF THE WEST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
OF AT LEAST 50 TO 60 MPH.

WIDESPREAD MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH
EROSION IS EXPECTED IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

1. THE BERING SEA COAST FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO POINT
ROMANOF...ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SHORES.
2. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON
SOUND WESTWARD TO AND INCLUDING THE BERING STRAIT COAST
AND LITTLE DIOMEDE ISLAND.
3. SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTLINE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
4. THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE.

THIS INCLUDES THE VILLAGES OF NOME AND KIVALINA WHERE
MAJOR DAMAGE FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS
IS EXPECTED. THE VILLAGE OF SAVOONGA ON THE NORTH SHORE
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE PROTECTED FROM COASTAL
FLOODING BUT WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH SEA LEVELS IN NORTON SOUND WILL CAUSE
COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE.

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER MOST AREAS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA MAINLAND...WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. PEOPLE ARE URGED
TO SEEK SHELTER NOW AND POSTPONE TRAVEL INTO THE BACK COUNTRY
UNTIL THE STORM ABATES.

ALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD SEEK SAFETY IN PORT IMMEDIATELY
IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. IN AREAS WHERE BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...SMALL BOATS
AND PERSONAL PROPERTY SHOULD BE MOVED WELL AWAY FROM THE
SHORE AND TO HIGHER GROUND.

AGAIN...THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
STORM OF AN EPIC MAGNITUDE RARELY EXPERIENCED. ALL PEOPLE
IN THE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SAFEGUARD THEIR LIVES
AND PROPERTY.
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computer models are trying to bring the MJO back

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Quoting Skyepony:
Buoy in the Arabian Sea


glitch or ships nearby... or pirates relaxing on the buoy. most likely
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240. Skyepony (Mod)
Buoy in the Arabian Sea
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Cayman Brac








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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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