Fourteen U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011: a new record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:12 PM GMT on November 04, 2011

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It's time to add another billion-dollar weather disaster to the growing 2011 total of these costly disasters: the extraordinary early-season Northeast U.S. snowstorm of October 29, which dumped up to 32 inches of snow, brought winds gusts of 70 mph to the coast, and killed at least 22 people. Not since the infamous snow hurricane of 1804 have such prodigious amounts of October snow been recorded in New England and, to a lesser extent, in the mid-Atlantic states. Trees that had not yet lost their leaves suffered tremendous damage from the wet, heavy snow. Snapped branches and falling trees brought down numerous power lines, leaving at least 3 million people without electricity. The damage estimate in Connecticut alone is $3 billion, far more than the damage Hurricane Irene did to the state. Hundreds of thousands still remain without power a week after the storm, with full electricity not expected to be restored until Monday.


Figure 1. Wet, heavy snow from the October 29, 2011 snowstorm weighing down trees still sporting their fall leaves in Winchester, VA. Image credit: wunderphotographer MaddScientist98.

The October 29 snow storm brings the 2011 tally of U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters to fourteen, thoroughly smashing the previous record of nine such disasters, set in 2008. Between 1980 - 2010, the U.S. averaged 3.5 of these weather disasters per year. Through August, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) estimated that ten weather disasters costing at least $1 billion had hit the U.S., at total cost of up to $45 billion. However, the October 29 snow storm brings us up to eleven billion-dollar disasters, and a new disaster analysis done by global reinsurance company AON Benfield adds three more. Flood damage from the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee in the Northeast on September 8 is now estimated at more than $1 billion, and two outbreaks of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes--one in April and one in June--now have damage estimates exceeding $1 billion. A remarkable seven severe thunderstorm/tornado outbreaks did more than $1 billion each in damage in 2011, and an eighth outbreak July 10 - 14 came close, with damages of $900 million. In total, the fourteen billion-dollar disasters killed 675 people. Tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods in these fourteen disasters killed over 600 people, putting 2011 into fourth place since 1940 for most deaths by severe storms. Only 2005, with over 1,000 deaths caused by Katrina, 1969, with over 700 hurricane and flood-related deaths, and 1972, with 676 hurricane and flood-related deaths, were deadlier years for storms, according to NOAA. The fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters of 2011 caused $53 billion in damage, putting 2011 in fifth place for most damages from billion-dollar weather disasters. The top damage years, according to NCDC in adjusted 2011 dollars, were 2005 (the year of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma), 2008 (Hurricane Ike), 1988 (Midwest drought), and 1980 (Midwest drought). With nearly two months remaining in 2011, the potential exists for more billion-dollar weather disasters this year. Our first opportunity comes Tuesday, when the NOAA Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the possibility of a severe weather outbreak centered over Arkansas and Missouri.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama during the April 25 - 30, 2011 Super Outbreak. This tornado outbreak was the most expensive U.S. weather-related disaster of 2011, with damages estimated at $9 billion. Fast forward to minute four to see the worst of the storm.

Here are AON Benfield's estimates of the damages and NCDC's estimates of the death tolls from 2011's fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters (a clickable version of this table with information on each disaster is available on our severe weather resource page):



Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.

Angela Fritz is subbing for Ricky Rood this week, and has written an interesting post on the latest climate change controversy, the release of the new Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) study by skeptic Dr. Richard Muller.

Jeff Masters

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Ahhh another troll with another funny name I can laugh at.It's quite hilarious to see them in action.Don't mind me folks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ANOTHERBADFORCAST:
the busted 2011 tropical season is over then again it was over months ago

Can you please explain to me how 2011 was a bust.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
Thailand Floods Death Toll: Over 500 Dead
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting StormGoddess:
Good morning all. We had another earthquake last night in Oklahoma. This one was a 5.6 magnitude. We live near Shawnee, and the shaking was extremely strong here. At 10:54 p.m. I had the displeasure of again being awakened by an earthquake (like I did several months ago). Truly it is one of the scariest experiences one could ever have. It makes you feel completely out of control, as if the earth could just swallow things up at any moment. Then you wait for the aftershocks indefinitely to see if there is more to come. At least with tornadoes you usually can have some sort of sense of when the storm system will pass and when it will be "over". We really need to figure out what is causing this, whether it be too much drilling for oil, steaming the oil out of the ground, fracking, the New Madrid fault line getting ready to let go, or some other reason ~ whatever the cause might be. People were almost in a complete panic last night. There definitely is damage in Pottawatomie county with this earthquake. Reports are coming in now of very large cracks in the walls of many different buildings where people work. Both on the inside and on the outside of structures. Once I was awake the shaking continued for about 20-30 seconds, which felt like forever.


Hi StormGoddess,
Was thinking of you last night and mentioned you in a post here. Good to see your comments. That thing lasted a full minute. I was awake, and last eve's quake was startling enough in this little corner of OK, let alone where you are. Glad you're okay. Best wishes to you and to all up there near the epicenters.
...

And the "aftershocks" continue...


There are also reports of building damage in Lincoln County. And apparently State Hwy 62 is cracked and broken. Not a big EQ by most standards but a big one for Oklahoma.
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Quoting Articuno:

cool clouds

Yeah, they're awesome.

Future subtropical Sean looks good too.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

cool clouds
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
From the Alaska quake in 1964. I would say these are pretty big holes.



Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true--but, still, this year alone, Texas has recorded its largest since 1931, Virginia its largest since 1897, Arkansas its largest since 1843, and Oklahoma its largest ever. Coincidence, I'm sure, but very interesting nonetheless.


There's a lot we don't know about fault systems. Maybe Arkansas, Texas and Oklahoma share a similar fault system given their geographical proximity so when one kicks out, others do in succession. Fault lines still haven't been fully mapped yet, especially as some go back hundreds of millions of years. Just a thought.

Virginia may be separate.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can you fall through a crack in the road in an earthquake?

That's one of those questions from my kid side that needs to be answered :P


The ground can open up during an earthquake.
FICTION: A popular cinematic and literary device is a fault that opens during an earthquake to swallow up an inconvenient character. But unfortunately for principled writers, gaping faults exist only in movies and novels. The ground moves across a fault during an earthquake, not away from it. If the fault could open, there would be no friction. Without friction, there would be no earthquake. Shallow crevasses can form during earthquake induced landslides, lateral spreads, or other types of ground failures. Faults, however, do not gape open during an earthquake.

USGS EQ FACTS
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can you fall through a crack in the road in an earthquake?

That's one of those questions from my kid side that needs to be answered :P


Reminds me of a quote:

'Life is both exciting and boring at the same time. At any moment, you could be swallowed up by the Earth, yet it hardly ever happens'.

Hope those involved in the OK tremor are okay.

America really is an interesting meteorological and geological place.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can you fall through a crack in the road in an earthquake?

That's one of those questions from my kid side that needs to be answered :P
Yes it happens, we had a 7.8 quake in Puerto Rico in 1918, my father was 15 then (he passed in 1996 at 103 years old), and he told me he saw a man and his horse felt in a road crack,that open beneath their feet, people pulled them out but the horse broke his legs, and was sacrifised. There were not cars in PR in those days.
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Quoting PlazaRed:

According to reports I read when I was in New Zealand, they had an earthquake there about 1933 in a city called Napier, apparently it was quite a big one and part of a school play area opened up and some people fell into it,then it closed again, The quake as far as I can remember was also supposed to have lifted several thousand acres of seabed up to a level above sea level and this is now dry land.
I cant remember many details as it was about 30 years ago that I was in Napier reading the report. I'm sure somebody will know more about it than me!
I read about that quake after the Christchurch one last February. It [the Napier one] still is the most devastating one to hit NZ in terms of loss of life; around 650 people died. [Edit: Should read 250!] I also remember reading stuff like you heard about the New Madrid slip in the 1800s... you know, rivers running backwards, whole lakes disappearing and forming where there had been no lake before... freaky stuff.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting Skyepony:
Here's an OCEANSAT pass of 98L lastnight.


I'm expecting it to linger offshore, occasionally sending mostly coastal showers this way, before it's swept out to sea by the next front. 0.07" Melbourne, FL so far, more is just starting to fall.
How cold did u guys get overnight, Skye?

And @ Melwerle, Great to see you! I'm pretty sure I heard some stories about pple falling into road cracks in Alaska during that really horrible earthquake there back in the 50s/60s.... I've heard that getting out into an open area is almost always your best bet in an earthquake. My instinct would be to get out, if at all possible....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting Thrawst:


it's cool that the clouds "Arc" east of our islands..
Morning. I was looking at that when I got up. We actually got about 5 minutes of rain from those skimpy clouds this morning.... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
My Weather since Sept 2010: RAIN CHANCES LASTING TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY COULD BE A BIT DECEIVING...IN THAT MOST AREAS THAT
WILL RECEIVE RAIN MAY ONLY BE LOOKING AT AMOUNTS AROUND 1/10 INCH OR
LESS.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
17:30 PM IST November 6 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB03-2011 over southeast Arabian Sea remained practically stationary during the past 6 hours and lays centered near 10.5N 65.5E, or about 1050 km west southwest of Mangalore (India), 1350 km east southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen), and 1450 km southeast of Salalah, Oman. The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and move west northwestward towards the Gulf of Aden during the next 72 hours.

Satellite imagery indicates gradual increase in convection and organization of the system. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 8.5N to 15.0N and 59.0N to 65.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -78C.

3 minutes sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 4 with amplitude more the 1. as per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during the next 2-3 days and then move to phase 5 and 6. While phase 4 is favorable, phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for cyclogenis and intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-29C. The ocean heat content is less (60-80 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence has increased during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative (5 knots) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system.
Hey, HGW.

Looks like the other half of the NInd season is in full swing. This is what, the 3rd depression in a couple weeks? Seems like this has some potential for intensification before landfall.

Does the Indian Met agency do forecast graphics?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
AGW and Earthquakes = "Shake "n" Bake"!

LOL
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
AGW and Earthquakes = "Shake "n" Bake"!
LOL... It took a minute, but I did get this.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting Ameister12:
Pre Suptropical Storm Sean? We'll see what happens. Like always.


yeah, just wait and watch
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can you fall through a crack in the road in an earthquake?

That's one of those questions from my kid side that needs to be answered :P

According to reports I read when I was in New Zealand, they had an earthquake there about 1933 in a city called Napier, apparently it was quite a big one and part of a school play area opened up and some people fell into it,then it closed again, The quake as far as I can remember was also supposed to have lifted several thousand acres of seabed up to a level above sea level and this is now dry land.
I cant remember many details as it was about 30 years ago that I was in Napier reading the report. I'm sure somebody will know more about it than me!
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459. Skyepony (Mod)
Here's an OCEANSAT pass of 98L lastnight.


I'm expecting it to linger offshore, occasionally sending mostly coastal showers this way, before it's swept out to sea by the next front. 0.07" Melbourne, FL so far, more is just starting to fall.
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Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can you fall through a crack in the road in an earthquake?

That's one of those questions from my kid side that needs to be answered :P


Depends on how big the crack is, I suppose.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning Everyone!

Long time lurking - haven't logged on much since I moved from GA back to Sandy Eggo, CA. :)

Earthquakes...we had a 7.2 a couple of years ago and we do have tremors quite often. Yep, it's pretty scary.

Please be aware of what you're supposed to do during a quake (and yes, I know it's hard to think rationally when you feel the floor moving).

Get away from windows and anything that can shatter. Get under a sturdy piece of furniture (dining room table etc). (They used to tell you to get in a door way - they have changed their thinking.) I know that everyone says not to go outside due to falling debris but that's where I head all the time. We have no overhead power lines and I figure if I get a safe distance from houses, I'm okay. Earthquake don't kill people, collapsing houses do.

Be safe and don't panic. I know it's tough. Good calming thoughts being sent your way. Hang in there guys.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
AGW and Earthquakes = "Shake "n" Bake"!


LOL!!
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Keep an eye on the weather, Oklahoma City and Wichita Falls.

Tornadoes and large hail seem quite possible tomorrow.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
Quoting BahaHurican:
@ Jed and Reed...

Having experienced sustained winds to 90mph, I can say it's definitely possible to stand in this winds, though very difficult. Not to mention stupid, since you never can tell what might come your way. I've been out in strong TS winds, but my instinct otherwise is to stay in an area sheltered from the worst winds if for some reason I do go out of the house.

That being said, I also know that very few civilians, and most of those IMO seamen, estimate wind speeds accurately. Jed's assessment of +20 mph is pretty much spot on. I find some of the old boaters around here have a better sense of wind speed, but that IMO comes from experience more so than an innate ability to categorize.

Couldn't help "jumping in".... lol


At about 65-70mph you can stand in the wind. It starts becoming more difficult after that point, and you're not able to move very quick. I've learned just by doing some chasing recently that the winds below hurricane force (for example 50mph) are quite a bit stronger than what you think they would be, If I hadn't had a wind gauge telling me 50, I would have guessed it was gusting to 60-65. I've been in gusts upto at least 174mph, and that is just impossible to estimate, kinda indescribable.
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it's cool that the clouds "Arc" east of our islands..
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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN NOV 06 2011

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. WELL TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX DURING THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BRING SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS NORTH TX INTO CNTRL
OK WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN THE REGION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM
THE TX HILL COUNTRY NWD ACROSS NW TX INTO WCNTRL OK. FURTHER TO THE
WEST OF THE MIDDAY STORMS ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...THE
MODELS FORECAST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY
REACHING THE 1000 TO 1500 J/K RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING OUT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...DISCRETE CELL INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ALL DEVELOP STORMS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS A SQUALL-LINE WILL DEVELOP IN WRN OK AND
NW TX AND MOVE EWD INTO WCNTRL OK AND ACROSS NORTH TX SIMILAR TO THE
GFS SOLUTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WCNTRL OK AND NORTHWEST TX ON TUESDAY
GRADUALLY INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AS THE EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AS HIGH AS 50 KT COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH
HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS STORM MODE. THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENT WITH A FAIRLY
QUICK TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURED MCS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON
THE SRN END OF THE LINE FROM NORTHWEST SWD INTO WCNTRL TX WHERE MORE
DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL THREAT FROM FAR SW OK SWD TO
AROUND SAN ANGELO WITH SEVERAL TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WHERE A HATCHED AREA FOR
SIGNIFICANT HAIL HAS BEEN ADDED. A STRONG TORNADO ALSO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY
ALSO EXIST FURTHER NORTH INTO CNTRL OK...THE MORE PREDOMINANT THREAT
COULD BECOME WIND DAMAGE AS A SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD INTO ECNTRL OK
AND ACROSS NORTH TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
AGW and Earthquakes = "Shake "n" Bake"!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
448. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
17:30 PM IST November 6 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB03-2011 over southeast Arabian Sea remained practically stationary during the past 6 hours and lays centered near 10.5N 65.5E, or about 1050 km west southwest of Mangalore (India), 1350 km east southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen), and 1450 km southeast of Salalah, Oman. The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and move west northwestward towards the Gulf of Aden during the next 72 hours.

Satellite imagery indicates gradual increase in convection and organization of the system. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 8.5N to 15.0N and 59.0N to 65.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -78C.

3 minutes sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 4 with amplitude more the 1. as per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during the next 2-3 days and then move to phase 5 and 6. While phase 4 is favorable, phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for cyclogenis and intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-29C. The ocean heat content is less (60-80 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence has increased during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative (5 knots) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true--but, still, this year alone, Texas has recorded its largest since 1931, Virginia its largest since 1897, Arkansas its largest since 1843, and Oklahoma its largest ever. Coincidence, I'm sure, but very interesting nonetheless.


Exactly +1
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Quoting MrMarcus:

The US commonly gets hundreds of quakes every week.. Heck, Colorado had a 5.3 the same day Virginia had their 5.8 back in August. These events are far more common than most people realize.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/

That's true--but, still, this year alone, Texas has recorded its largest since 1931, Virginia its largest since 1897, Arkansas its largest since 1843, and Oklahoma its largest ever. Coincidence, I'm sure, but very interesting nonetheless.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...THE LOW
COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
OVER WARMER WATER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER t PASCH

How far south it would go? If it continues to move southward the waters are really hot bellow 22N, near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.
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It appears the 2 quakes yesterday are from 2 different Faults reported by WU. So would this really what is an aftershock or what is foreshock....????
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Yes I definitely agree that some animals have a "sixth" sense and can often be aware of things that humans are not aware of. :)
It really drives that point home when you witness it yourself first hand.

It's like the sixth sense insects have before a hurricane comes ashore.

I have witnessed it myself also. When i was in the Philippines in 2002, I experienced my 1st ever quake, before it, the dogs and roosters in the neighbourhood were going off. it hit and they went quiet then after it passed they went off again then about 5mins later they all went back to normal.
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@ Jed and Reed...

Having experienced sustained winds to 90mph, I can say it's definitely possible to stand in this winds, though very difficult. Not to mention stupid, since you never can tell what might come your way. I've been out in strong TS winds, but my instinct otherwise is to stay in an area sheltered from the worst winds if for some reason I do go out of the house.

That being said, I also know that very few civilians, and most of those IMO seamen, estimate wind speeds accurately. Jed's assessment of +20 mph is pretty much spot on. I find some of the old boaters around here have a better sense of wind speed, but that IMO comes from experience more so than an innate ability to categorize.

Couldn't help "jumping in".... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728

Quoting WxGeekVA:
Whats with all these strong earthquakes in these areas that don't commonly get earthquakes? Colorado, Virgina, and now Oklahoma? This is becoming very strange.....
The US commonly gets hundreds of quakes every week.. Heck, Colorado had a 5.3 the same day Virginia had their 5.8 back in August. These events are far more common than most people realize.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/
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Morning all.

Sure seems like there's been a lot going on since I checked in last.... We've had some rain associated with the most recent frontal passage, and boy did temps plummet with that. I'm wondering how cold it got in the JAX area, since I was hearing forecasts into the upper 40s in central FL....

Amazing the earthquakes in the Missouri and Oklahoma area of late. Colorado doesn't surprise me as much, given it's mountainous territory, but I have to admit I haven't though much of last night's epicentre as being "earthquake territory". This leads me to wonder how many of the buildings in the area are designed to withstand stronger shocks. I keep thinking about the last 14 months of earthquakes in the Christchurch, NZ area and how buildings there were not at all designed for the shaking they experienced there.

I also wonder if animals, because they use their senses differently from us, are better able to sense "pre-shocks" or other crustal changes that we as humans overlook or ignore.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Unless another IDA happens, the gulf wont have a hurricane this year.
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Quoting reedzone:


I have to disagree with the reports.. I weigh 155 lbs and I almost fell to the ground after few very strong gusts over 40 mph. at the least. Obs are obs, but when you're actually witnessing them, obs/stations are not gods.


Are you sure your imagination wasn't helping the wind too?. Its ok, I used to to do that when I was a kid too, I would lean away from the wind to look like it was almost blowing me over :)


Ok, so I said observations are gods? Hmm, not exactly. However, I will most certainly trust an observation from NOAA over a blogger estimation. I used to way over-estimate winds that same way back in the day. I used to think 30 mph winds were 50 mph winds at the beach. Then I came to realize 30 mph winds at full exposure is a lot more than you think. If you think I'm just trying to prove you wrong, I suggest you talk to some real meteorologists, they will tell you roughly the same thing I am, just explaining it a bit better.


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Quoting AussieStorm:

Well before the Quake and tsunami off Indonesia the Elephants in Thailand wanted to run to the hills and birds and other animals sort of disappeared. They have a "sixth" sense that can feel these things.

Yes I definitely agree that some animals have a "sixth" sense and can often be aware of things that humans are not aware of. :)
It really drives that point home when you witness it yourself first hand.
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Nice non-tropical swirl. Will it make the transition to a subtropical system?

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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Whats with all these strong earthquakes in these areas that don't commonly get earthquakes? Colorado, Virgina, and now Oklahoma? This is becoming very strange.....

Most of these area's have prehistoric faults, they only become noticed once a quake happens on them. Some can lay dormant for 1000's of year then one day they come alive or they can simple just lay dormant.
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Quoting StormGoddess:

You are welcome. Another note of interest that I just realized. Last night right after it turned dark, all of the neighborhood dogs were running around and going wild with barking for what seemed no good reason, including ours. As if some "intruder" were out there, but they couldn't seem to find it. This is how they were all acting. Far into the distance you could hear dogs barking as well, all at once. It was a very strange experience.
You wanna hear my 5.8 earthquake story?
Well first it started out just a normal day, and I thought: "What could go wrong?" and then that "wrong" happened a 5.8 earthquake hit us, I was in the basement relaxing and just laying there, enjoying my last day of summer break, my mom JUST went out to the store, then the shaking began, at first I thought to myself: "What in the world is the dog doing?" Then it got worse, I heard a crackling noise on the roof then I heard what sounded like something dropped. I was like "HOLY CRAP!" I thought the house would collapse, I ran with my phone in my hand and saw the chandelier shaking and swaying back and forth, I ran outside, to see our neighbor who was regularly from CA, talk to me, saying we just had a strong earthquake, I checked, it was a 6.0 (later downgraded to 5.8) it was the scariest minute of my life, I tried calling my mom, but the cable didn't work and had a static noise, and I was thinking, is my mom ok? then she called me, I answered, and she said that everyone got out of Wal-Mart, and they wouldn't let her in. She said she almost was scared to death, to myself, I hope this is the last earthquake I will ever experience, but the bad news is that it probably won't be!
Also the house could of been weakened by the earthquake, so if another one were to happen, would it get damaged even more then the first? I literally thought the whole house was going to collapse, I then got a call from my grandparents asking me if I was okay, and she heard that there was a strong earthquake, I told her I was afraid of aftershocks, and she said not to worry. But seriously, I am more alert then I ever was, which I can't tell is a good thing or a bad thing, my dad then said he didn't feel it, but he was confused at why people were getting out of their houses, he is lucky to not have felt it, we later observed small cracks outside in the house, but overall slight damage luckily.
I am from maryland BTW.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
Quoting StormGoddess:

You are welcome. Another note of interest that I just realized ~ last night right after it turned dark, all of the neighborhood dogs were running around and going wild with barking for what seemed no good reason, including ours. As if some "intruder" were out there, but they couldn't seem to find it. This is how they were all acting. Far into the distance you could hear dogs barking as well, all at once. It was a very strange experience.

Well before the Quake and tsunami off Indonesia the Elephants in Thailand wanted to run to the hills and birds and other animals sort of disappeared. They have a "sixth" sense that can feel these things.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Whats with all these strong earthquakes in these areas that don't commonly get earthquakes? Colorado, Virgina, and now Oklahoma? This is becoming very strange.....

should i really say it.......
2012
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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