Preliminary IPCC report predicts increased weather extremes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on November 03, 2011

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There is at least a 2-in-3 probability that climate extremes have already worsened because of human-caused releases of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, and some types of extreme weather events will increase in the coming decades as huge cost, says a preliminary draft of an international climate report leaked to the Associated Press (AP) this week. The Nobel Prize-winning United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issues reports on the state of the scientific knowledge of climate change every six years, with the next full report due out in 2013. However, the IPCC is working on a special report detailing the evidence that extreme weather events may be increasing due to climate change, and how we might best prepare for the coming increase in these costly and dangerous events. The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (SREX) is due to be released later this month, after a meeting in Uganda, where diplomats will recommend changes to the preliminary document leaked to AP. The IPCC requires that all countries agree unanimously on the content of the official reports, so the language of the leaked report may undergo considerable change. In the AP article, University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, who was not among the authors, is quoted as saying that the report was written to be “so bland” that it may not matter to world leaders. With the diplomats free to make changes to the report, I think it is likely that the already bland SREX report will be further watered down. Despite all the objections one hears about the extreme and dire predictions of the IPCC, the science in these reports is actually very conservative and watered down, due to the requirement that the language must be approved by every country (including oil producing nations such as Saudi Arabia.) So, it should grab our attention that the preliminary draft of the SREX report predicts that some regions of the world might suffer extremes so severe as to leave them "increasingly marginal places to live", heat waves could peak at 5°F hotter by 2050 and 9°F hotter by 2100, and intense single-day rainstorms that happen only once every twenty years now will happen up to once every five years by 2100. I'll have more on the SREX report after its official release.

Jeff Masters

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NYC-sized iceberg being born on Antarctica




Part of an 18-mile-long crack in the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf is seen from a NASA jet on Oct. 26.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11453
Quoting Articuno:

LOL
but wait,
why would texas give them rain if they need rain themselves
._.
just sayin


I think they were looking for another rain out before now. I know. They didn't plan for that too well either. :(
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


A gift from the Texas Rangers?

LOL
but wait,
why would texas give them rain if they need rain themselves
._.
just sayin
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2548
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Nice deepening system over St. Louis right now.






A gift from the Texas Rangers?
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Nice deepening system over St. Louis right now.




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Quoting DallasGumby:

History says otherwise. There are so many examples that governments cannot dictate economic activity/change/growth. Probably the examples with the broadest scale were the old Soviet Five Year Plans.


For starters, I'm not sure comparing the United States to Soviet Russia is particularly accurate. And it's not a matter of "dictating" activity, it's a matter of stopping subsidies for the sources of our problems and subsidizing the solutions to speed the system. It requires our leaders to actually be able to say the terms "enhanced greenhouse effect" and "global climate change" instead of just weakly alluding to them. It's a matter of reducing habitation in areas likely to experience the worst changes and building our infrastructure not with past statistics in mind, but with likely climate statistics of the next 100 years. It's also a matter of not encouraging population growth as a "strength" of our country.

There are so many ways the government could act to mitigate the harm from climate change. It is clear that it can be done, because in many ways actions are being taken, just in the opposite direction.
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Lots of rain here in C & S FL this year compared to last year.



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Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Your welcome, that's too bad you missed it. Now I'll tell you something about the "Storm of the Century" I was 5 at the time playing outside in the porch, when suddenly my mom said it got pitch black outside, next thing you know she grabbed me and pulled me inside because things were just flying around outside, when the storm passed our neighborhood was in a mess, fences blown down, trees down, roof shingles had come off, and my uncle's gutter from the other street blew off and ended up in my street. Our street was literally impassable and blocked off, my dad was working at the same time and they wouldn't even let him into the street.
I guess you don't remember it? I should remember the reports, but I think that was in my drinking days, so there is very little I can remember clearly. LOL
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Quoting kwgirl:
Thank you #41 GT. I enjoyed the info. I especially liked the 1977 pictures. I was in Scotland when it got that cold in Florida. I remember my sister writing me about having to scrap ice off her windshield here in Key West. Evidently the wind was cold enough to freeze the dew on the car. Two Decembers ago it almost got that cold here.
Your welcome, that's too bad you missed it. Now I'll tell you something about the "Storm of the Century" I was 5 at the time playing outside in the porch, when suddenly my mom said it got pitch black outside, next thing you know she grabbed me and pulled me inside because things were just flying around outside, when the storm passed our neighborhood was in a mess, fences blown down, trees down, roof shingles had come off, and my uncle's gutter from the other street blew off and ended up in my street. Our street was literally impassable and blocked off, my dad was working at the same time and they wouldn't even let him into the street.
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Thank you #41 GT. I enjoyed the info. I especially liked the 1977 pictures. I was in Scotland when it got that cold in Florida. I remember my sister writing me about having to scrap ice off her windshield here in Key West. Evidently the wind was cold enough to freeze the dew on the car. Two Decembers ago it almost got that cold here.
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My local met. Dennis Phillips says the GFS has been drinking too much Eggnog...Will see if that Eggnog had rum in it :P

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I want a repeat of the "Snow King"...Hi hope everybody is enjoying their day, beautiful day in sunny Tampa, FL. any Snow in the forecast for the Southeast anytime soon?

Check this out! I added some pics. and some storms that weren't in this list.

The Worst US Winter Storms

1.
The Great Blizzard of 1888 (the Great White Hurricane)
March 11 - 14, 1888
Eastern United States

Snowfall of 40 to 50 inches was recorded over New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut as sustained winds created drifts as much as 50 feet tall. Total deaths are thought to have exceeded 400. Most of the cities on the eastern seaboard were shut down for days, if not weeks.

2.
The Storm of the Century
Type Cyclonic Blizzard Nor'easter
March 11 - 15, 1993
Eastern United States

This massive cyclonic storm had arms that at one point reached from Canada to Central America. More than 300 were killed.

Alabama and Georgia were hit by as much as six inches of snow. Areas further south received up to 16 inches of rain. Tornadoes and thunderstorms broke out all over the South.

In the northeast, record low temperatures were accompanied by large amounts of snow; some affected areas received as much as 3.5 feet, while drifts piled as high as 35 feet. Storm surges as high as twelve feet were recorded.



3.
The Great Appalachian Storm of 1950
Eastern United States
November 24 - 30, 1950

Heavy winds, rain and blizzard conditions followed an extratropical cyclone as it moved through the Eastern United States. Deaths totaled 353, and US insurance companies ended up paying more for damages than for any previous storm. Record cold was recorded in Florida (24 degrees F), Georgia (3 degrees F), Kentucky (-2 degrees F) among others.

4.
The Great Lakes Storm of 1913 (The Big Blow)
Nov 7 - 10, 1913
Midwestern US and Ontario Canada

Also known as the Freshwater Fury and the White Hurricane, the Big Blow may have been the worst US winter storm on record. It killed more than 250, primarily from ships that were sink. Five of the twelve ships downed by the storm were never found.

Caused by the convergence of two storm fronts over the Great Lakes’ relatively warm waters, the storm generated 60-90 mph winds that lasted as long as 16 hours. Wind driven waves rose to 35 feet and whiteouts covered the region. The cyclonic system, with its counterclockwise winds, was, in fact, a hurricane.

The storm was of the same type—a November gale—that famously sank the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975.

5.
The Schoolhouse Blizzard (aka The Schoolchildren’s or Children’s Blizzard)
January 12, 1888
Great Plains States

This blizzard gets its name from the many schoolchildren who died when trapped in one room school houses. More than 230 are said to have died.

The tragedy of this storm was created by its suddenness, and by the warm conditions that immediately preceded it. Lulled into complacency by a balmy day, people ventured from their houses to do chores and head to town. Many were improperly dressed. Then, an arctic front crashed into moisture laden air from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing sudden drops of temperature to as low as -40 F, as well as large amounts of snow.

This was the first of two major blizzards in 1888.

6.
Armistice Day Blizzard
Midwestern United States
November 11 - 12, 1940

The Armistice Day Blizzard was an early storm that encompassed Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Snowfall of up to 27 inches were combined with winds of 80 miles per hour, snow drifts of twenty feet and a fifty degree drop in temperature. The Blizzard surprised many hunters who were out for the beginning of duck season and had not prepared for such a storm. In Minnesota, twenty five hunters are said to have died. In all, 154 died in the storm, including 66 sailors on Lake Michigan.

7.
The Knickerbocker Storm
January 27 - 28, 1922
Upper South and Mid Atlantic States

This storm was named for the collapse of the Knickerbocker Theater in Washington, D.C., which killed 98 and injured 133. A storm cyclone which dropped as much as three feet of snow in Maryland, Virginia and Pennsylvania, the Knickerbocker affected 22,400 square miles of northeastern United States.

7. The Blizzards of 2010
February 5-6; February 9-10, 2010
Mid Atlantic States, Northeast

Affecting the entire eastern seaboard, these storms dumped as much as 40 inches each on the eastern United States.

8.
Blizzard of 1999
Midwestern United States
January 2 - 4, 1999

With 22 inches of snow in Chicago, the Blizzard of 1999 was rated at the time by the National Weather Service as the second worse to hit the Midwest in the 20th Century. Temperature as low as -20 degrees fahrenheit were recorded. Storm related deaths totaled 73 persons.

9.
The Great Blizzard of 1899
February 11 - 14, 1899
Continental United States

From Georgia to Maine, temperatures dropped to record temperatures. Tallahassee reached -2 F; Minden, Louisiana, -16 F; Camp Logan, Montana, -61F; Washignton, D.C., -15 F. Snowfall began in Florida and moved rapidly north. Washington, D.C. recorded 20 inches in a single day; New Jersey, 34 inches—still a record.


Taken on the steps of the Capitol Building in Tallahassee.


10.
The Great Storm of 1975
January 9 - 12, 1975
Central and Southeast US

This storm system resulted in snow in the midwest and 45 tornadoes in the southeast, together killing a total of 70 people. It began in the Pacific, crossed the Rockies, and then collided with an arctic air front and tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. It produced record low barometric pressures in the midwestern United States.

Strangely, while the storm produced huge amounts of snow in the upper midwest, it also produced record high temperatures. More than a foot of snow fell from Nebraska to Minnesota, while sustained winds of 30 - 50 mph produced 20 foot snowdrifts. Meanwhile, in Chicago, Indianapols and Indiana, record high temperatures were set.

11. Rare Snowfall of 1977
Jan. 19, 1977
Tampa, FL.

snow in Tampa fell on January 19, 1977. The accumulation amounted to all of 0.2 inches (0.5 cm), but the city, unprepared for and unaccustomed to wintry weather, came to a virtual standstill for a day.




A black and white photo taken on January 19, 1977 of a woman named Yvonne Berry cleaning snow off of the windshield of her car in a parking lot in Tampa.

12. Rare Snowfall of 1989
Dec. 23, 1989
Jacksonville, FL.

The storm resulted in the first white Christmas on record from northeastern Florida to North Carolina. Snow fell in Tampa and Daytona Beach as Florida experienced its most widespread snowstorm in history and their first white Christmas in history as airports and interstates were shut down. Snow and sleet fell as far south as a Sarasota to Melbourne line. Many traffic accidents and several fatalities occurred on ice-covered roads in North Florida. Extensive crop damage including a loss of about 30% of the $1.4 billion citrus crop occured leaving tens of thousands of migrant farm workers unemployed. Winter vegetables, berries, nursery ornamentals and fish suffered heavy losses. Power blackouts hit hundreds of thousands of residents at various times during the holiday weekend.

Synoptic Charts of that historic event


Picture of a very rare Jacksonville snowfall, December 23, 1989
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Quoting goodsign:


It is interesting how much differing information is available.


I find it more interesting in how much dis-information is out there.
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Quoting pottery:

I am probably looking at different Data/Information than you are.


It is interesting how much differing information is available.
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co2now.org



389.00ppm



Atmospheric CO2 for September 2011

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Quoting jrweatherman:
Climate change,GW - I'm in and out of this blog just long enough to make this post.

Thanks for your valuable contribution, anyway....

:):))

Humid and cloudy here at 11n 61w today, with occasional showers and distant thunder.
Nothing of note in the Trop. Atl or the ITCZ.
Heavy rains keep setting-up in the ITCZ between 30w and 50w, but have mostly dissipated before getting to 60w during the past couple of days.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24677
Quoting goodsign:
In other words, we know very little about how much humankind is affecting climate changes.

I am probably looking at different Data/Information than you are.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24677
Is long range,but GFS shows a developing system in SW Caribbean. Maybe the 2011 season has the final hurrah? But is long range so you know the drill.

Link
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NASA Airborne Mission Maps Remote, Deteriorating Glaciers

PUNTA ARENAS, CHILE – NASA's airborne expedition over Antarctica this October and November has measured the change in glaciers vital to sea level rise projections and mapped others rarely traversed by humans.

Operation IceBridge, nearing completion of its third year, is the largest airborne campaign ever flown over the world's polar regions. Bridging a gap between two ice elevation mapping satellites, and breaking new scientific ground on its own, IceBridge this fall has charted the continued rapid acceleration and mass loss of Pine Island Glacier.

IceBridge has now generated three years of laser altimetry data over certain locations to continue the record from NASA's Ice Climate and Elevation Satellite (ICESat), which stopped operating in 2009. IceBridge measurements show Pine Island following its rapid deterioration that began around 2006. Combined IceBridge and ICESat data show the glacier is losing more than six times as much mass per year -- mass loss was measured at 7 gigatons a year in 2005 and about 46 gigatons a year in 2010 – making it one of the most significant climate change response trends that scientists see worldwide. For comparison, the Chesapeake Bay holds about 70 gigatons of water.

Satellites still operating, such as NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), can provide a large-scale picture of this trend. But it takes a more focused mission such as Operation IceBridge to gather higher-resolution data near the surface to piece together the dynamic interactions of ice, bedrock and ocean currents behind specific changes, and to improve the models that scientists use to predict how much an unstable ice sheet like West Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise.

Two planes make up this year's Antarctica 2011 campaign – NASA's DC-8 flying laboratory, based at Dryden Flight Research Center, Palmdale, Cal., and a Gulfstream-V (G-V) owned by the National Science Foundation and operated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The campaign also spotted and flew over a large rift developing across the Pine Island ice shelf on Oct. 14. A natural process, the crack could calve a new iceberg of about 350 square miles of surface area in the coming weeks or months. Pine Island Glacier hasn't calved a major iceberg since 2001.

On a follow-up flight on Oct. 26 to gather data around Pine Island's grounding line, the DC-8 was able to fly along the crack for about 18 miles at an altitude of 3,000 feet, making what are believed to be the first detailed airborne measurements of an active calving rift.

In flights to Slessor and Recovery glaciers, which have only been traversed by humans once and twice respectively, IceBridge made a historic and scientifically important suite of measurements. Perhaps most significantly for these rarely studied regions of East Antarctica, an ice-penetrating radar instrument onboard the DC-8 was able to measure the topography of the bedrock underneath the ice sheet. Without a better understanding of the shape and contour of the bedrock, it is impossible to know how much ice sits on top of the continent in all. Topography also greatly influences the speed and direction of a glacier's ice flow.

"At a time when glaciers and ice sheets are showing rapid changes, we need consistent data that shows how and why that change is happening," IceBridge project scientist Michael Studinger said. "With three years of IceBridge data in hand, we have successfully continued the ice sheet elevation record in key areas and broken new ground in understanding the nature of the bedrock under ice sheets and the shape of the seafloor under ice shelves."

A gravimeter aboard the DC-8 senses changes in gravity fields to map the sea floor. This bathymetry controls ocean currents, which can inject warming waters under ice shelves and accelerate their thinning, as is happening at Pine Island and other glaciers.

The G-V was outfitted with one instrument for this campaign – a laser-ranging topographic mapper called the Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS). The instrument is suited for measuring large swaths of the surface at high altitudes. The G-V flew at around 45,000 feet for most of its 2011 missions.

Meanwhile, the DC-8 carries multiple instruments which are better suited for low-altitude flying. Once the plane reaches its science target, it flies at about 1,500 feet, allowing the radars, gravimeter, digital cameras and the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM), which captures higher resolution details of the ice surface than is possible from satellites. The DC-8's range and speed can also reach more remote, unstudied locations and cover more ground than smaller aircraft or ground traverses.

"This has been an excellent campaign for the science side of the mission, and it's our job to put the plane in positions to make that possible," said Mission Manager Walter Klein, based at Dryden.

One example of the flight side of the mission enabling science occurred during the second Pine Island Glacier flight, when the pilots flew the DC-8 by sight over the calving rift in the glacier's ice shelf at an altitude of 3,000 feet.

During the IceBridge Antarctica 2011 campaign, the DC-8 has flown 13 missions covering 51,600 miles, while the G-V has flown 11 science missions covering about 50,000 miles. As planned, the G-V left Punta Arenas to return to the United States on Weds., Nov. 2. The DC-8 is scheduled to remain in Punt Arenas up to mid-November, when it will return to its home base of Dryden Flight Research Center in Palmdale, Cal.

The next flight leg of IceBridge once the mission team wraps up in Punta Arenas will be based in Greenland in the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2012. IceBridge is scheduled to fly one Arctic and one Antarctic leg each year until ICESat-2 launches in 2016.


A close-up image of the crack spreading across the ice shelf of Pine Island Glacier shows the details of the boulder-like blocks of ice that fell into the rift when it split.

For most of the 18-mile stretch of the crack that NASA’s DC-8 flew over on Oct. 26, 2011, it stretched about 240 feet wide, as roughly seen here. The deepest points ranged from about 165 to 190 feet, roughly equal to the top of the ice shelf down to sea level. Scientists expect the crack to propagate and the ice shelf to calve an iceberg of more than 300 square miles in the coming months. This image was captured by the Digital Mapping System (DMS) aboard the DC-8. Credit: NASA/DMS



The National Science Foundations/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF/NCAR) Gulfstream-V flew high-attitude missions during IceBridge Antarctica 2011. Credit: NCAR




NASA's DC-8 handled the low-attitude missions and carried the bulk of the IceBridge science instruments. Credit: NASA/Tony Landis
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Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans.

These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.

How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?


A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations.

These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences. For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover. These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.



Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change
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In other words, we know very little about how much humankind is affecting climate changes.
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I can only agree with Dr.Masters on the above blog post. The "watering down," of information is and has been prevalent throughout human history and some nations even had/have ministries of propaganda for this purpose.
Thinking about the "possible," coming problems with the climate/weather, several things must be apparent:-
1,Change that occurs rapidly poses very difficult challenges for nature to adapt too.
2,Due to crowded land use there are few places for people to move into,(peacefully?)As some land becomes uninhabitable human units per given area will increase,putting more pressure on food producers to get more product from less land.
3,A Government department of "Just in Case" Contingency Plans is now becoming inevitable as the pressure to ignore things is being overwhelmed by the "Evidence" that they exist.
4, We are 7 billion and rising,(at the moment.)
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Government could have got it done if it were not for the confusionists, denialists, and delayers.

History says otherwise. There are so many examples that governments cannot dictate economic activity/change/growth. Probably the examples with the broadest scale were the old Soviet Five Year Plans.
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Quoting dfwWxDude:
Government is not going to get it done. Free market can respond much more quickly and efficiently that government ever could. If we can't grow crops and raise cotton in Texas because of the drought, where can we? We have lot's of land in the USA!



Government could have got it done if it were not for the confusionists, denialists, and delayers. But it is nearing the point where their delays have caused the free market to start to catch up. But this isn't a good thing, because that implies we are already seeing the changes that in many cases were still supposed to be years away. It also means that we are already incurring far higher costs from reaction than we would have had if we proactive.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Btw, I don't deny AGW is happening but when reports come out saying things will happen in 2100 when we don't know what a single hurricane season is going to be like it like finding a needle in an Australian hay stack.


You are kinda trying to compare apples to oranges. A conclusion regarding an average temperature over a decade is climate, the number of hurricanes in a given year is much more closely related to weather and natural noise of the system.
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Nea, you have been plused enough that your comments are no longer hidden before signing in.


I think Dr. Masters and the site staff finally reset the plus/minus system.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Thanks Aussie!

Happy Birthday to you! Enjoy the weather in your beautiful island.
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@AussieStorm,
like finding a needle in an Australian hay stack.

You have hay in Australia???
:)

Seriously, I understand what you are saying.
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Thanks Jeff. There's at least a 2 in 3 chance that is your shortest entry ever...
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Couldn't ask for a better 47th birthday :), having a few cold ones later by the beach!


Happy Birthday, Storm Petrol. Sounds like you got a good weather day going!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Of course, even the heavily watered-down SREX report, which scientists will rightfully lament as practically toothless, will nevertheless be lambasted by pro-pollution types as "alarmist" propaganda.

And in the meantime, humanity will face increasingly profound climate-driven challenges... :-\

Thanks, Dr. Masters.


Nea, you have been plused enough that your comments are no longer hidden before signing in.
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Quoting dfwWxDude:
@Barefootontherocks, I know right?

Would the South be as populated if it were not for Air Conditioning? Seems like I have heard of studies that say not. Or Las Vegas?

We have the Natural Gas to power electric generating plants to run our A/C's and cope, but apparently we are running out of water to run the generating plants. So drought here (and flooding elsewhere) is definitely an issue.

We have broken a lot of heat records that were set in the 1950's this year. But I notice that a lot of our cold temp records were set in the 70's. Hmmm....


Exceptional drought is an issue here, too, but there are signs of improvement.

Would the South be as populated if it were not for Air Conditioning? Probably not. The south was populated before air conditioning - Creek, Cherokee, Choctaw, Seminole and Chickasaw, just to name those who were relocated to Indian Territory c. 1840. Air conditioning did not exist when "pioneers" settled the Plains where you (Dallas Forth Worth area, I presume) and I (Scentral Oklahoma) live.

Sure, you can die from heat, or cold. Sure, many areas of Earth are over-populated. And that is the crux of energy and climate issues. Huge infrastructures to maintain. Few to no good options for relocation. Drought has brought down advanced civilizations in the Americas - way back. And it might again. I'm just not ready to jump on a doom and gloom wagon and bang a drum.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Couldn't ask for a better 47th birthday :), having a few cold ones later by the beach!

Happy Birthday!
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
16. AussieStorm

Aussie,
Please not another one,people still haven't gotten their power back up here from last weekend.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Happy Birthday.



Thanks Aussie!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I like how they say things will happen. When was this time machine invented.

Btw, I don't deny AGW is happening but when reports come out saying things will happen in 2100 when we don't know what a single hurricane season is going to be like it like finding a needle in an Australian hay stack.




Weather and climate are extremely complex, but the main variable that drives these is heat.

It's not that difficult to extrapolate that with more heat comes more severity. Heat = energy. More energy = more severe weather.

As has been the case for nearly two decades now, this discussion is NOT that complex. CO2 traps heat. More CO2, more trapped heat. More heat = more changes.
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Another Nor'easter????





Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting EasyRiderX:
This is how it begins. Is anyone listening? Link

From the article: Will that create a trend that gives us our first American town to be abandoned because of climate change? (I’m still betting on Las Vegas as the first city.) Will America’s first recognized climate refugees be Rick Perry’s Texans?
Simple answer: NO, on all counts, unless one's historical perspective cannot extend even to the last century. Example: the plains, especially in Western Oklahoma, are littered with ghost towns caused by the Dust Bowl.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Couldn't ask for a better 47th birthday :), having a few cold ones later by the beach!

Happy Birthday.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
@Barefootontherocks, I know right?

Would the South be as populated if it were not for Air Conditioning? Seems like I have heard of studies that say not. Or Las Vegas?

We have the Natural Gas to power electric generating plants to run our A/C's and cope, but apparently we are running out of water to run the generating plants. So drought here (and flooding elsewhere) is definitely an issue.

We have broken a lot of heat records that were set in the 1950's this year. But I notice that a lot of our cold temp records were set in the 70's. Hmmm....
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Quoting superpete:
Thanks Dr M. Crystal clear skies here in Cayman today !


Couldn't ask for a better 47th birthday :), having a few cold ones later by the beach!
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I like how they say things will happen. When was this time machine invented.

Btw, I don't deny AGW is happening but when reports come out saying things will happen in 2100 when we don't know what a single hurricane season is going to be like it like finding a needle in an Australian hay stack.


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Wow, I made that sound simple didn't I? Back to the weather...
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Quoting EasyRiderX:
This is how it begins. Is anyone listening? Link


From this article:
Will that create a trend that gives us our first American town to be abandoned because of climate change? (I'm still betting on Las Vegas as the first city.)

If this town is abandoned, the better question... Is this because of a permanent climate change or a period of droughty "weather"? Only time will tell. Your statement, This is how it begins, and articles like this one you posted strive to color the collective mind into doom and gloom. Let's wait and see what happens instead of making "bets." If Las Vegas disappears, won't Los Angeles and much of Southern California? (rhetorical)

Have a nice day.

(edited for clarity)
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I agree with the assessment that it may "cost" a lot of money to adapt to the shifting climate. Whole economies depend on producing certain crops and raising/harvesting livestock in specific environments. Can we anticipate the climate shift and adapt? To me, this would be the first useful output of the whole climate change debate.

So far it seems all we have had is politicians taking the output of hard working scientists and screaming "follow me since I figured out the sky if falling first and I know what to do" and countries trying to protect their own sovereignty and economy by saying, "don't mess with me, you pay the price".

Government is not going to get it done. Free market can respond much more quickly and efficiently that government ever could. If we can't grow crops and raise cotton in Texas because of the drought, where can we? We have lot's of land in the USA!

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how cold does the gfs show for jacksonville for my birthdaY november 11th
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This is how it begins. Is anyone listening? Link
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Thanks Dr M. Crystal clear skies here in Cayman today !
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Complete Update

Nada... Zero... Zippo... Ziltch... happening Weatherwise...

Its going to be a GW kind of week I think.
That being said.. I am freezing up here... you can turn on the sun again anytime.

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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