Wilma: dramatic change in forecast track?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:37 PM GMT on October 19, 2005

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Hurricane Wilma continues across the western Caribbean towards Mexico as a Category 5 hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters reached the storm at 2:06 pm EDT, and reported a pressure of 892 mb, ten mb higher than the Atlantic record lowest pressure of 882 mb set this morning. The 3:56 pm EDT hurricane eye report showed the same pressure, 892 mb. Peak winds measured at flight level were 141 knots in the southern eyewall, compared to 162 knots measured this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops have warmed a bit since this morning, and Wilma is a weaker storm--but still a Category 5 capable of catastrophic damage. The eye diameter measured by the hurricane hunters was still a very tiny 5 nm, and an second concentric eyewall with diameter 10 nm has formed. This indicates that Wilma may soon undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, and will weaken to a Category 4 storm.


Figure 1. Computer model tracks for Hurricane Wilma.

Where will Wilma go?
There is now a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Wilma. NHC has not adjusted the official forecast much with the 5 pm advisory, other than to slow down Wilma a bit. However, a major shift in the model guidance occurred with the just completed 12Z (8 am) runs, that may force NHC to make major modifications to the official forecast if further model runs continue to show this shift. Three of the top models--the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models--now show that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pull Wilma sharply northwards and then northeast across Florida is progressing slower than expected, and will not dig as far south. If this forecast verifies, it would be very bad news for Mexico. Wilma may not pass east of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel as originally thought, and may instead make a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel or Cancun Island on Thursday night or Friday morning, probably as a Category 4 hurricane.

However, this would be very good news for Florida. Any encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula would cause a serious disruption of the hurricane, and make it unlikely that Wilma could affect Florida as a major hurricane. A hit on southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would be most likely, and the arrival of the hurricane would be delayed until Sunday. It is quite possible that Wilma would not affect Florida as a hurricane at all; the GFDL model forecasts that Wilma will spend three days over Mexico and emerge off the coast as a tropical storm and pass south of Cuba. So, if I lived in Florida and was thinking about evacuating today, I would wait another day and see what the forecast tomorrow brings. Keep in mind, though, that the NOGAPS model, which is one of the top four models for tracking hurricanes, is still showing that Wilma will pass through the Yucatan Channel and a make landfall in southwest Florida as a major hurricane. The Canadian model is showing this as well.

I'll have another update tonight, as conditions warrant.

Conditions on the Yucatan
Here's an email I received from wunderphotographer cleo85 , who is in the Yucatan and took the photo shown below. She has promised to post photos and send reports as her situation permits:

"Here is the Paamul [Yucatan Peninsula] update. After a very cloudy morning we did have some blue sky around 11:00am CDT. Now at 2:00pm CDT the Sky is almost overcast with picturesque clouds. There are a few light showers. We have a light breeze from north with winds what feel more and more warmer. The morning [5am CDT] showed 76 Fahrenheit now we have 88. Paamul is boarding up and will evacuate tomorrow. There is a confusion were to go since some of the newest computer models showing landfall on the Yucatan with a turn around and going back to the Caribbean. I was told the mood in the city of Playa del Carmen changed from almost ignorance two days ago to panic right now. There is no gasoline or diesel anywhere between Cancun and Tulum. Groceries seams to be tight. Batteries are out. There is price poaching going on. The Newspapers do their best to bring the panic up."

Jeff Masters

Wilmas Messenger or just Clouds? (cleo85)
Cloudy Sunrise on Yanten Beach, PaaMul, Q.Roo, Mexico, [Yucatan Peninsula]
Wilmas Messenger or just Clouds?

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173. pyroguy
10:29 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
It's looking more and more that this storm might just miss Fl. altogether. Looks like cat.2 for sure.The track will come close to the Key's. So they will be on the west side of the storm. At this point it should track up along the east coast. New England area??? Will have to wait in this one.
172. Sirena7cs
3:25 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
jjf, thank you too. That really helps me. Now I understand what UTC means to me on ET (is 4 hours ahead) and I know which are the more recent models to come in. Still want to know how often they refresh the map though. Now see it's 11pm, so do they update similarly to N.H.C?

Am moving on to Dr. Master's newest blog, hope to see and Socal there.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
171. jjf
3:04 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Hey Sirena the time @ refers to the location of the storm. The times of the computer model runs are listed under them on the top legend in UTC (universal time) which is 4 hours ahead of EDT... so for example, GFDL run at 23:16 or 7:16 pm eastern time.
170. Sirena7cs
2:53 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Socal, yes, I noticed that and was able to get myself to Wilma on the homepage...but still have a question for you...I noticed the time date was 5pm. So does this refresh itself at particular times with all the most recent models, or as a new model's info comes in?
I have noticed today, that the models have dramatically changed so I was hoping to stay up with it as it happens, or as they individually come in, without having to depend on someone to post their blog. Is this possible to do whle looking at the overall picture or not. Thanks, again!
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
169. HIEXPRESS
2:46 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
All of you NASCAR fans around Daytona know about "The Vortex"
that protects the area around the track from rain during the races. Go to Daytona. What are you gonna melt? Bad to the bone.
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
168. ralphfurley
2:43 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
fly to PR via Boston...MIA may not "close" but flights usually get cancelled 24hrs before storm.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
167. AmyB
2:41 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
I am currently booked to fly from DC to Miami to Puerto Rico on Friday. I can change my flight (but need to do so now) to fly from DC to Boston to Puerto Rico. Should I do this? I haven't read anywhere that this is supposed to affect PR. Will it? And if not as a hurricane, will it be raining all weekend? Thanks for any help you can give.
Amy
166. socalweathernut
2:38 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Sirena,
I hope you stay safe down there...
I noticed that you need to go to the home page from that link to see Wilma, but it is a good site to keep handy.
Member Since: September 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
165. RobbTC
2:38 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...COULD
RE-INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT
235 MILES... 380 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD
REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
164. RobbTC
2:36 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z THU OCT 20 2005

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT
163. Sirena7cs
2:33 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Thanx Socalweathernut!!! I appreciate the link. I'm a recent CA transplant to the Gulf Coast.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
162. villaflamboyan
2:05 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Heidi!!!! OMG! I know who she is. I would have Heidi aka Cleo85 focus on pictures and not commentary. That was a VERY misinformed and credibility damaging post. Lets not see another one. Sorry Heidi, but it had to be said. You had nieghbors pulling into Paaumul after filling up their tanks right there on 307 after your post, and you got Jeff to post that.
161. canesfins
2:00 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
mybahamas - I am from Nassau, currently in Ft Lauderdale. My family is still in Nassau. Although I dont anticipate it following the Bamm, I noticed that as well, a little troubling
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
160. socalweathernut
1:53 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Here is a link to some line models...

Link
Member Since: September 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
159. mybahamas
1:48 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Hiya from The Bahamas :)
BAMM now has it crossing Cuba and heading right for us --- a-la-Michelle :(
158. Sirena7cs
1:46 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Dr. Jeff Masters,
This is my first post but I have followed you since I moved here to Florida, the day befor Charlie hit. I would like to thank you so very much for all the wunderful information and all the time you put into this site.
I have a naive question for you. I want to know how or where I, myself can find the spagetti tracking model maps? I have two sisters in Cozumel right now and I am very concerned. If you or if one of the other knowledgeble posters here could help me I'd much appreciate it. Also does ooster think or know if the airport will still be open by early tomorrow morn? I'm hoping that they and their 3 elderly dogs can still get out. Thanks for any help.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
157. TpaFlaNative
1:45 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
My fellow Floridians please Relax.

Be prepared. Don't panic. Be patient. We are going make it through this. There is no Levy to break (Unless you live next to Lake Okeechobee). Take a friend who lives in a flood prone neighborhood into your home. Pool your resources.

During the off season, make yourself prepared for next years storms. Dont procrastinate. Add new windows. Check your roof. Setup a hurricane cabinet within your house for supplies.

I'm Sorry, I didn't mean to preach. I have a hard time dealing with the panic thats overcome the people in this state. If you live outside of a flood zone in a concrete house your fine. My grandfathers house has been here since 1909 (wood frame) and its still standing.

Enjoy.
156. iyou
1:43 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
dcw et al - from lefty's blog - link to SST'S etc. at - http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/
Member Since: July 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
155. weatherwonderer
1:42 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
It does appear that Wilma is strenthening but it also looks like dry air is trying to get in on the NW side of the 'cane. That may put an end to the intensification currently going on.
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
154. FTmyersZ
1:35 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
The motion has had a more northern component since around 6:00 PM EDT. The floater sat images show it is fairly east and north of the target line( which was moved westward @ 5). This leads one to believe that the NCH UKMET track looks increasingly good. Looks like it will just clip or miss the Yucatan. The big question is if the trough will:
1.) be "on time" to force the "right hook".
2.) be early and "cap the storm in the Yucatan/Cuba area.

Thoughts??
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
153. matilda101
1:26 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
For the last 4 hours, despite the wobbling, I believe Wilma is moving more NW than WNW. It looks to be heading towards the tip of Yucatan and closer to the channel than earlier this afternoon.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
152. ricstevenson
1:21 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
still too early to tell. what happens tonight and through the day tomorrow, sets the path for what more action to take

thanks to those that acknowledge the naples/bonita springs area. i know for one, i'm ready. hope everyone else is.

the groc store was out of bread tonight but the convenience store had plenty
151. dcw
1:21 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Anyone have a heat-content map for the Bay of Campeche? I see an Allen coming on.

There goes the eye!

Rapid Intensification Clock now at 5:00 and counting. I fully expect her to start firing up again around 2-3AM.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
150. amd
1:20 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
just by looking at the weather channel IR satellite pictures, it seems that the ultra deep convection has fired up around the center, and that the eye is visible again.

The storm may be reintensifying already.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
149. iviongo
1:13 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
hey, ft. myers here, any revelations since 8pm?
i work for nbc-2, and for those of you who watch,
you know they're in freak out mode when they pull tom rector in on a weekday.
148. ricstevenson
1:11 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
hey everyone. i was on last night but have been busy today. work, of course, and then getting all my supplies this evening. i'm done, stocked up and ready to handle whatever comes.
147. MisterJimster
1:08 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
I mean the NHC has been expecting the turn for over 24 hours now.
146. MisterJimster
1:06 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
The NHC has been saying that Wilma has been expected to make that gradual NW turn. I think it has been at least that long and it doesn't look like it is happening. If anything it looks more W then WNW doing a little wobbling of course. Any thoughts? Is she gonna keep right on going WNW?
145. wxwatcher
1:00 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
I am pretty sure this storm's motion is WNESNEWS
144. JimJax
12:55 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Thanks everyone. Will check in again in the AM
Everybody be safe
143. CoconutCreekFLA
12:54 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
lol robert
142. stormydee
12:52 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
JimJax - they are Link in lefty's blog, lots of people there.
Goodnight!
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
141. RobertForsman
12:52 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
I got married in FL....TWICE....does that count?
140. CoconutCreekFLA
12:49 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Hi all, anything new going on?

BTW: I am creating a registry of floridians. If you haven't done so already please go to my blog (click my screenname above) and add your name to the list. I plan to create a list of folks by county. There are already over 70 of us registered.
139. dcw
12:48 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Hey, this year, storms CAN go WNE.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
138. JimJax
12:48 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Where did everybody go??
137. BwanaDogSWFLA
12:38 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
my wife called me and told me the Fox ticker had the storm going W-NE. Is that some weather jargon or are they just typoing it. I thought hmmm. Siamese storm fighting with itself.
136. JimJax
12:33 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
I just read and try to learn a little bit.. Some interesting converstaions go on in here.
I have a M/C group that is looking to me, the Prez, to tell them if we are making the Daytona trip or not. Like I am some kind of expert or something. HAHAHA
Thanks to all here for your insight and opinions and patience with a newbe...
jim
135. mishnook
12:32 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
someone might want to check to see if little Cayman Island is still there. Looking at the IR satillite loop, it appears to have just been nailed by quite a blob of convection spinning off Wilma. Although a long ways away from the storms center, the blob looked to have colder cloud tops than anything in the hurricane proper. That culd not have been fun to endure.
134. FSUstormnut
12:32 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Wilma looks like it has taken more of a north "jog"!
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
133. BwanaDogSWFLA
12:29 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
How do you all feel about waiting til Friday in SWFLA to board up and get out. Just paid 75 dollars for gas and 500 on plywood and fasteners. Am I overreacting.
132. stormydee
12:24 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Jim Jax, not in here much at night, usually busy, but I missed the explosion last night and I think she's gonna do it again tonight...she seems to be slowing down and getting stronger.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
131. JimJax
12:16 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Stormy.
Hi see you during the day but this is the 1st time I'm on at night. I will for sure wait till morning to make solid plans. We have a large group going to Dayton to camp at the Speedway but time will tell.
Thanks Jim
129. stormydee
12:12 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
JimJax - this season and last has ruined my plans many times...and sometimes I regret not doing what I planned to do...best advise, wait until they update at 11PM...should be interesting...she is getting stronger, you can tell by her ir sat. Link
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
128. seflagamma
12:12 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Everyone, nice reading today. Got to go for the night, must watch the Cardinals Baseball and get up early; back to work.
I will check back in tomorrow while at work to keep up on what is going on.
Good night!
Gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40903
127. JimJax
12:09 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Thanks folks......Now if I can just get my wife to go along with it. I figure we will be OK Friday night and Sat night but sunday might be a wet ride home
126. hookedontropics
12:09 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
'lo all.. been lurking, time to ask some questions.

1.) If this misses the trof, (which this year it would make sense. This would be the worst case for Yucatan. Good for US.

2. If this misses the trof, would the entire Gulf be opened back up for a landfall?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
125. stormydee
12:08 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
nice computer models above
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
124. JimJax
12:03 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
Thanks Elliston and Hi back at ya aquak.
OK Should I go to Daytona or not????????????????
123. aquak9
12:03 AM GMT on October 20, 2005
dang, elliston...ya beat me to it. Jax, i'd go to daytona, but head home by noon sunday at the latest--and fill up your car, too. Just a thought.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25938

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.