November Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2011

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Hurricane Rina is gone, and the tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no models predicting development of a tropical depression during the coming seven days. So, are we all done for 2011? Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time spawn a Tropical Storm Sean? Let's try and come up some answers. Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, ten of the sixteen years (62%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of fifteen late-season storms:

2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (20%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. However, as I noted in the wake of last year's Hurricane Tomas last November in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 1. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Forecast for November 2011
The oceans are certainly warm enough to support continued development of tropical cyclones. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over a wide area of the tropical Atlantic are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and are well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 2.) However, wind shear is starting to rise over much of the tropical Atlantic as the jet stream moves farther south in its usual seasonal cycle. Wind shear over most of the Atlantic will be too high to support tropical storm formation over the coming two weeks, according to the latest run of the GFS model (Figure 3.) Only the southern Caribbean and a few transient pockets in the middle Atlantic east and southeast of Bermuda will have low enough wind shear to support tropical storm formation over the next two weeks. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, far from land, in a region where an extratropical low pressure system gets cut off from the jet stream and lingers long enough over warm waters to acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting a system like this may take form 7 - 10 days from now. Taking all these factors into account, I predict we are all done this hurricane season with storms that will cause loss of life, but there is still a 70% chance that we will get one or more named storms in the middle Atlantic that will stay out to sea and not affect land.


Figure 2. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2011. The black dotted line is the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which marks the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast for November 11, 2011, as predicted by the 2am EDT November 1, 2011 run of the GFS model. The model is predicting low wind shear of less than 4 m/s (about 8 knots, light red colors) in the southern Caribbean and southern Lesser Antilles Islands. Very high wind shear in excess of 44 m/s (85 knots, orange colors), associated with the jet stream, will protect regions north of the Caribbean.

I'll have a new post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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300. weatherbro
4:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It's about time to start watching the long range GFS for our 1st real arctic outbreak into the deep south.
I'm a deep-south snow-mongerer! I'm ready for a replay of Feb 1899! (yes, I'm aware of how dumb that sounds) LOL!!


Bring it on!!!!!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1393
299. AussieStorm
2:19 PM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Good morning everyone! Still smiling over Neapolitan's post - and wondering if the folks who nit pick and find fault over every small thing can even understand the humor. Have a great day!

+1,000,000
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
298. Patrap
2:16 PM GMT on November 03, 2011


ESL by LSU

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
296. PensacolaDoug
1:00 PM GMT on November 03, 2011
It's about time to start watching the long range GFS for our 1st real arctic outbreak into the deep south.
I'm a deep-south snow-mongerer! I'm ready for a replay of Feb 1899! (yes, I'm aware of how dumb that sounds) LOL!!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 662
295. ECFLsunshine
12:47 PM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

The thing with warnings being sent out to mobile phones is it's sent after the wx radio's have gone off, even the little ticker across the bottom of a tv screen is later that mobile notification.


I guess it depends on where you live. I have seen the warning on my TV first enough times, and the radio lags by 5 seconds.

In the 98 outbreak, the Orlando weather radio station went down and it was not noticed until a spotter called in a report. It was offline for 25 minutes. This is detailed near the end of the report under the heading "Finding F". Thankfully this was a one-time incident.

I also lived in two different places in North Carolina where we had no coverage in our area for NOAA Weather Radio. That was 6 years ago, and hopefully those areas have coverage now.

I am all for weather radios and personally own three! But if I am driving around out of the area and my cell phone can warn me, I think that is fantastic. My radio back home does me no good in that case.





Member Since: September 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
294. StormTracker2K
12:27 PM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Countdown Till Christmas



Oh boy!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
293. islander101010
12:27 PM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting ECFLsunshine:


I just took classes on Saturday to become a SKYWARN spotter. Here in ECFL, only one town and the Air Force Base have sirens. That is a lot of territory and people who don't get overnight warnings for tornados!

We had a big part of our session covering the Groundhog Day outbreak in 2007 and the outbreak in 1998.
Both happened overnight and had a lot of lead time in the warnings. But people didn't have the radios, and most killed in the '98 outbreak were tourists in an RV park. The post-storm interviews indicated that people heard we could have severe weather that night, but did not realize where exactly they were in Florida and went to bed.

I have had a weather radio since I can remember. My cousin did not have one so we bought her one. I don't know how anyone can live in a storm-prone area and not have one.

They do become annoying, like during TS Fay where the alarm sounded all night long as the flood warnings were renewed, but better to be annoyed than dead!

We were told that the technology is coming where our cell phones will get warnings based on which cell phone tower our phones are pinging. That would be great since no one stays home all the time and the warning would be specific to where we are at the moment! This is supposed to happen in the next 1-3 years.

Sorry to be late on the subject. I am a long time lurker and don't post anything but thought someone might be interested.
lived here 30 yrs only seen one tornado and a few waterspots and they did only minumal damage. with the economy as it is now hardly worth it.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5002
292. TropicTraveler
12:26 PM GMT on November 03, 2011
Good morning everyone! Still smiling over Neapolitan's post - and wondering if the folks who nit pick and find fault over every small thing can even understand the humor. Have a great day!
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
291. GeoffreyWPB
12:21 PM GMT on November 03, 2011
Countdown Till Christmas

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
290. AussieStorm
11:34 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting ECFLsunshine:


I just took classes on Saturday to become a SKYWARN spotter. Here in ECFL, only one town and the Air Force Base have sirens. That is a lot of territory and people who don't get overnight warnings for tornados!

We had a big part of our session covering the Groundhog Day outbreak in 2007 and the outbreak in 1998.
Both happened overnight and had a lot of lead time in the warnings. But people didn't have the radios, and most killed in the '98 outbreak were tourists in an RV park. The post-storm interviews indicated that people heard we could have severe weather that night, but did not realize where exactly they were in Florida and went to bed.

I have had a weather radio since I can remember. My cousin did not have one so we bought her one. I don't know how anyone can live in a storm-prone area and not have one.

They do become annoying, like during TS Fay where the alarm sounded all night long as the flood warnings were renewed, but better to be annoyed than dead!

We were told that the technology is coming where our cell phones will get warnings based on which cell phone tower our phones are pinging. That would be great since no one stays home all the time and the warning would be specific to where we are at the moment! This is supposed to happen in the next 1-3 years.

Sorry to be late on the subject. I am a long time lurker and don't post anything but thought someone might be interested.

The thing with warnings being sent out to mobile phones is it's sent after the wx radio's have gone off, even the little ticker across the bottom of a tv screen is later that mobile notification. The 1st line of notification is wx radio. It should be compulsory to have at least one in every home, just like a safe room or a basement room on all new homes built. The more we can protect ourselves from mother natures fury the better. That's my take on things I have been told by some very very knowledgeable people. I am also willing to be corrected on this and will ask those knowledgeable people there thoughts on it again.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
289. BahaHurican
10:41 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, I got 76+ in August. My finest rant. lol.
Somebody got 150 [+] for a post???? I remember Teddy's 76, but that 150 is not in my recollection at all....

Oh, waidaminit, I just clicked to the concept that some plusses got added AFTER these posts.... lol [slaps self in head]

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
288. ECFLsunshine
10:21 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting sar2401:


What I wish would happen is that local and state governments would stop spending money on replacing worn out sirens and buy weather radios for the citizens. The sirens can't be heard in a lot of places and, even if you hear them, they give you no information. During las April's tornado outbreaks, the sirens in central Alabama were going off almost continuously, to the point that people started ignoring them. If everyone had a weather radio, at least they'd know what the warnings were for and if they were in danger.


I just took classes on Saturday to become a SKYWARN spotter. Here in ECFL, only one town and the Air Force Base have sirens. That is a lot of territory and people who don't get overnight warnings for tornados!

We had a big part of our session covering the Groundhog Day outbreak in 2007 and the outbreak in 1998.
Both happened overnight and had a lot of lead time in the warnings. But people didn't have the radios, and most killed in the '98 outbreak were tourists in an RV park. The post-storm interviews indicated that people heard we could have severe weather that night, but did not realize where exactly they were in Florida and went to bed.

I have had a weather radio since I can remember. My cousin did not have one so we bought her one. I don't know how anyone can live in a storm-prone area and not have one.

They do become annoying, like during TS Fay where the alarm sounded all night long as the flood warnings were renewed, but better to be annoyed than dead!

We were told that the technology is coming where our cell phones will get warnings based on which cell phone tower our phones are pinging. That would be great since no one stays home all the time and the warning would be specific to where we are at the moment! This is supposed to happen in the next 1-3 years.

Sorry to be late on the subject. I am a long time lurker and don't post anything but thought someone might be interested.
Member Since: September 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
287. PlazaRed
9:27 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
A Town in Texas: This is How it Ends


Thank you for that link. Although people in the USA will be familiar with these kinds of rainfall and climatic anomalies that they are experiencing, to most of us in the rest of the world we seldom hear about any of these things unless they are major news like the recent east coast storm.
I would just like to put forward what might have to be the long term solution to the drought problem if it continues at its present rate:-
What may be needed ids to introduce a type of over ground water grid of pipes, to take water from where it is more abundant to arid areas, rather like a state or national grid power system, this could be fed from a principle purification plant,the pipes could be maintained at high pressure and need not be very large in diameter. The alternative seems to be rural depopulation.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2180
286. winter123
9:17 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
285. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:26 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 3 2011
===================================

The low pressure over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea persists. The system is likely to become more marked during next 24 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46913
284. LargoFl
8:11 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting swflurker:
good morning, thanks for the pic of that nasty front headed
Quoting swflurker:
thanks for that pic of that nasty front headed east..62 here this morning, headed up to 79 so a nice day here..have a great day everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
282. swflurker
6:18 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Member Since: August 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 193
281. quicksilverskys
6:16 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Please forgive the long post. I have been around here a long time. Member since 2003,(gosh 8 yrs + now, Dosent seem possible!) I seldom say much. Every once in a great while I just have to pop off:) Usually late at night like this where nobody see's it :)
Member Since: July 13, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
280. swflurker
6:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2011

Member Since: August 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 193
279. cynyc2
6:02 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-


Long time lurker, and recent member. Hehe, I said member.....

Anywho, this is the greatest post on the interwebs, EVER!!
Member Since: May 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
278. quicksilverskys
5:54 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Very much in Agreement. Humans just cant seem to "get over ourselves" as a species & relise that man has kept record of weather & Such for an incredably tiny amout of time in the big picture. We really have no Idea of very long term cycles.. Nearly all these things are theory, Not absolute facts. Which is sort of wonderful if you think of it. So much more to study & find out. What fun would studying the weather or much else be if we already knew everything! As far as us affecting long term weather cycles, Well, The great Old George Carlin mentioned something once in one of his shows (not a direct quote) about if we got too far out of line as a species, the earth would just shake us of like a case of fleas. We are aggorant little buggers, Arent we:) The car exploding reference tickles me. Hurricanes may be deadlier than they used to be or floods worse but how much of that is because we think we can now just build where ever we want, without regard for the natural weather of the area. (i.e Barrier Islands, Off the sides of cliffs in slide & quake areas, Towns in flood plains etc.) Sometimes you got to think we may be getting dumber about survival as we "advance" :)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


IMHO, there is no such thing as man-made global warming. However, I do believe that mankind is altering the environment in a way that has caused larger swings in extremes. We have made the heat waves hotter, and the cold spells colder. We have not, in any way, done anything that would lead me to believe that the human race has directly caused warmer SSTs or the ensuing stronger storms and hurricanes. I know that recently the extreme weather (Texas/Southwest Drought, Thailand flood, and Snowtober in the Northeast) has some people saying that Man-Made Global Warming (MMGW) is the cause. That is like saying that my car made a odd noise and that it means that the engine is about to explode. Furthermore, all of these records have been broken is a result of just global warming, is incorrect because of two things. The first is that our "all time records" go back maybe 100 years or 150 if we are lucky. Undoubtedly more extreme temperatures occurred before records were kept during or before people lived there. Second, it is not MMGW, but just a combination of the planet still coming out of the ice age and the extremes being altered by pollution. Again, I said all the extremes, not just extreme hot, but extreme cold too.

On the subject of MMGW, for those who watched An Inconvenient Truth, I also encourage you to watch Cool It by Bjorn Lomberg, who provides alternate theories to the MMGW debate. IMO it is a real eye-opener.

Member Since: July 13, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
277. dabirds
5:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
276 Really? Apples to comquats. Hope you get your rain with no severe weather. Supposed to start here soon, hope it gets to you by morning.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 785
276. sar2401
5:19 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
I was looking up some information on how much energy a hurricane expends per day. Found the answer at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html. Bascially, an "average" hurricane (don't know, maybe a Cat 2?) expends more than 250 times the total electrical generation capacity of mankind - per day.

At any one time, there are more than 2,000 thunderstorms occuring somewhere in the world. These thunderstorms create and expend more energy than man creates and expends - per year . Makes me wonder if we are really being a little egotistical thinking we have the energy producing capability to permanantly alter the Earth's climate. I'm sure we can alter the climate on a local basis - look at Los Angeles - but I have yet to be persuaded we can alter the entire Earth's climate, even if we wanted to.

At any rate, see you in the morning. Hoping Alabama might actually get some rain today.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17360
275. dabirds
5:14 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
We really don't have anything to fear from the AGW CRISIS.r


I've watched for a while, how can u call yourself frank zapper? Your beliefs don't match his, in any way. Get a new name! Sorry, don't mean to be presumptive, but really not what Frank would think!
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 785
274. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:28 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
5:30 AM IST November 3 2011
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman remained practically stationary and lays centered over the same area close to Salalah. It is likely to move west northwestward and weaken further. However, some numerical weather prediction models suggest re-emergence of the system into Arabian Sea hence the system will be monitored for further development.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots wit ha central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off the coast of Oman and Yemen.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hPa level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1002.2 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46913
273. splash3392
4:23 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
thank you for the info skye.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 646
272. Skyepony (Mod)
4:08 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Topic: *Windsat data delay


*Update: *
ESPC was informed by Monterey that due to the NPP launch, the SVAL
receiving station will no longer be used to receive WinSat data for the
next month. FAIR will be spun up again to receive the WindSat orbits
during this time. Once Fairbanks is online again WinSat contacts
will be
handled only by Fairbanks until Svalbard is made available again. This
will mean increased latency because Coriolis has fewer contacts with
Fairbanks than at Svalbard. There will be a 6-orbit latency period each
day, from roughly 0400z to 1400z.

*Update #1: *ESPC began receiving Winsat data at 1645 UTC.

*Update #2: *CLARIFICATION: Due to NPP's higher priority for Svalbard
launch and testing activities, Windsat data receiving has been moved
from Svalbard to Fairbanks. Fairbanks replaces Svalbard in acting as
the receiving station for Windsat for the dates of October 28, 2011
through November 28, 2011. During this period blind spots at Fairbanks
will impact data receipt, creating data delivery delays for Windsat
orbits occurring between 0400Z and 1400Z. After November 28, 2011,
Windsat receiving will be transferred back to Svalbard and nominal data
delivery times will resume for Windsat data.

*Date/Time**Issued:*October 31, 2011 0100 UTC *
*
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39386
271. Skyepony (Mod)
4:04 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Windsat has been looking messed up. It looks down now.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39386
270. Skyepony (Mod)
4:03 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
ASCAT of the trough near PR.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39386
269. Skyepony (Mod)
3:58 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
About 8,000 Southern California Edison customers across several counties were still without power Wednesday night, the utility said.

Earlier in the day, more more than 18,000 people had been without electricity, Southern California Edison said in a Twitter message.

The areas without power Wednesday night included parts of Calabasas, Fontana, Lancaster, Simi Valley and Stanton.

Heavy winds earlier in the day knocked down power lines and were blamed for several brush fires. The National Weather Service issued a red-flag warning for strong winds and critical fire weather through 9 p.m. Wednesday.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39386
268. Skyepony (Mod)
3:53 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
A Town in Texas: This is How it Ends
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39386
267. Skyepony (Mod)
3:39 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
IPCC put out a summery for some paper that is to be released soon about Climate Change & extreme weather.

There's some quotes from Masters this article about the summary..

From June to August this year in the United States, blistering heat set 2,703 daily high temperature records, compared with only 300 cold records during that period. That made it the hottest summer in the U.S. since the Dust Bowl of 1936, according to Weather Underground Meteorology Director Jeff Masters, who was not involved in the study.

But Masters said the basic findings seem to be proven true by actual events.

"In the U.S., this has been the weirdest weather year we've had for my 30 years, hands down."
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39386
266. WoodyFL
3:20 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting MTWX:
Sorry, just catching up on the blog. didn't reallize the last post was 2 hours ago... LOL


It's OK. I was just looking myself. Guess everyone is on vacation or gathering links for tomorrow's arguments.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
265. MTWX
3:09 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Sorry, just catching up on the blog. didn't reallize the last post was 2 hours ago... LOL
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
264. WoodyFL
3:07 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting MTWX:
Excerpt from the SPC forecast...

THIS TROUGH WILL MINOR OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION ON SUN/D5...WITH A BROAD SWLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE
CNTRL AND WRN STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
WITH NEAR 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO OK BY SUN AFTERNOON. WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR BUT
SUBTLE NATURE OF FORCING SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL NOT OCCUR.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS
WHICH WILL BE OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY 12Z MON/D6.


Hey, it was nice and quiet in here until you posted that. :)
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
263. MTWX
3:06 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Excerpt from the SPC forecast...

THIS TROUGH WILL MINOR OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION ON SUN/D5...WITH A BROAD SWLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE
CNTRL AND WRN STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
WITH NEAR 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO OK BY SUN AFTERNOON. WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR BUT
SUBTLE NATURE OF FORCING SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL NOT OCCUR.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS
WHICH WILL BE OVER THE CO RIVER VALLEY 12Z MON/D6.
BY D6...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
ECMWF...THE TYPICALLY PREFERRED MODEL...INDICATES A DEEPER UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...SUGGESTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS ON MON/D6. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN A TWO
DAY PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR MON AND TUE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WOULD BE EVEN GREATER ON TUE/D7 OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND
PREDICTABILITY IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE AREAS.

Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
262. Dakster
1:37 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
My current thoughts on the GW Debate:

1. Anything we can do to pollute less and use natural and limited resources more efficiently is good. (regardless of whether it will help/hurt GW)

2. The Earth has gone through periods of warming and cooling. And these changes happened well before "man" was around. What caused those trends? Dino Farts? I don't remember Dino's driving cars...

3. I couldn't even begin to scientifically tell you whether man was accelerating GW, altered the climate, or is even preventing the warming of the Earth.

4. There are a lot of people politically and monetarily motivated in this debate. This motivation tends to bring out mis-leading information. So much that it is hard to weed through the BS.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10790
261. AstroHurricane001
1:35 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting WxGeekVA:


IMHO, there is no such thing as man-made global warming. However, I do believe that mankind is altering the environment in a way that has caused larger swings in extremes. We have made the heat waves hotter, and the cold spells colder. We have not, in any way, done anything that would lead me to believe that the human race has directly caused warmer SSTs or the ensuing stronger storms and hurricanes. I know that recently the extreme weather (Texas/Southwest Drought, Thailand flood, and Snowtober in the Northeast) has some people saying that Man-Made Global Warming (MMGW) is the cause. That is like saying that my car made a odd noise and that it means that the engine is about to explode. Furthermore, all of these records have been broken is a result of just global warming, is incorrect because of two things. The first is that our "all time records" go back maybe 100 years or 150 if we are lucky. Undoubtedly more extreme temperatures occurred before records were kept during or before people lived there. Second, it is not MMGW, but just a combination of the planet still coming out of the ice age and the extremes being altered by pollution. Again, I said all the extremes, not just extreme hot, but extreme cold too.

On the subject of MMGW, for those who watched An Inconvenient Truth, I also encourage you to watch Cool It by Bjorn Lomberg, who provides alternate theories to the MMGW debate. IMO it is a real eye-opener.



There is scantly any such thing as direct cause-and-effect when it comes to a complex system like the global climate. I think man-made emissions and natural causes are each contributing about half of the warming observed, which in turn has increased evaporation, which in turn has changed both the intensity and distribution of precipitation events. That means monsoons are more likely to fail, and drought is more likely to change to flood too quickly for farmland to recover.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
260. AstroHurricane001
1:32 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
Quoting Xandra:

Here is the article in Nature and it says nothing about some cooling
and the sea surface temperature in the Arabian Sea is above normal.


I see little to no contradiction in the quoted block. Remember when the tropical Pacific warming contributed to cooling of the tropopause after undergoing a switch in 2000?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
259. FrankZapper
12:47 AM GMT on November 03, 2011
We really don't have anything to fear from the AGW CRISIS.

As long as we have fine products being developed by Americans at fine American companies such as Lennox, Trane and Carrier and serviced by equally fine companies such as Waldo's Refrigeration we will remain comfortable despite the ups and downs of the outside climate.

Make mine the 4 ton variable speed heat pump with heavy duty coils and the 10 year factory warranty. Now that's COOL LIVING!




In no way is any of this to be taken as an endorsement of ANY product or service company or an attempt to spam or link to another site. It is ONLY an ATTEMPT to bring a little humor into a tired old blog during relatively quiet times in the tropics. It is NOT the topic of GW that I take lightly (I have been a believer for 10 years) but some of the arrogant posters , who despite the urging of many, continues to lecture and demean the rest of us, as if they ONLY had seen a burning bush and are now on some sort of an anti-AGW crusade.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
258. WxGeekVA
11:57 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Lets have a debate:
How long will it take for AGW believers before you back off on exactly how fast and rapid it is occurring. (As in if in 10 years it is just a little warmer, still arctic sea ice in the summer, will you agree the threat had been overblown).

And for the other side, how many years of extreme weather will it take for you to finally agree that the warming is having a great effect on the environment?


And how long to expect the other side to wait?


I actually wanna have a scientific debate not a name-calling war.


IMHO, there is no such thing as man-made global warming. However, I do believe that mankind is altering the environment in a way that has caused larger swings in extremes. We have made the heat waves hotter, and the cold spells colder. We have not, in any way, done anything that would lead me to believe that the human race has directly caused warmer SSTs or the ensuing stronger storms and hurricanes. I know that recently the extreme weather (Texas/Southwest Drought, Thailand flood, and Snowtober in the Northeast) has some people saying that Man-Made Global Warming (MMGW) is the cause. That is like saying that my car made a odd noise and that it means that the engine is about to explode. Furthermore, all of these records have been broken is a result of just global warming, is incorrect because of two things. The first is that our "all time records" go back maybe 100 years or 150 if we are lucky. Undoubtedly more extreme temperatures occurred before records were kept during or before people lived there. Second, it is not MMGW, but just a combination of the planet still coming out of the ice age and the extremes being altered by pollution. Again, I said all the extremes, not just extreme hot, but extreme cold too.

On the subject of MMGW, for those who watched An Inconvenient Truth, I also encourage you to watch Cool It by Bjorn Lomberg, who provides alternate theories to the MMGW debate. IMO it is a real eye-opener.

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
257. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:39 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Lets have a debate:
How long will it take for AGW believers before you back off on exactly how fast and rapid it is occurring. (As in if in 10 years it is just a little warmer, still arctic sea ice in the summer, will you agree the threat had been overblown).

And for the other side, how many years of extreme weather will it take for you to finally agree that the warming is having a great effect on the environment?


And how long to expect the other side to wait?


I actually wanna have a scientific debate not a name-calling war.

lol, well, good luck with that...You may get one or two people, but a lot have headed elsewhere for the winter. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32829
256. VAbeachhurricanes
11:30 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
Lets have a debate:
How long will it take for AGW believers before you back off on exactly how fast and rapid it is occurring. (As in if in 10 years it is just a little warmer, still arctic sea ice in the summer, will you agree the threat had been overblown).

And for the other side, how many years of extreme weather will it take for you to finally agree that the warming is having a great effect on the environment?


And how long to expect the other side to wait?


I actually wanna have a scientific debate not a name-calling war.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
255. JNCali
11:15 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
Quoting WoodyFL:


I thought you need a Corvette to travel on Route 66?
What? my Penske 26 footer will sure be outta place :[
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
254. Patrap
11:12 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
Quoting sar2401:


Thanks. I have no idea why we keep spending money on early 20th century technology in 2011. Our county has about 50,000 people. That's about 14,000 households. If we assume that 20% of the households already have a weather radio, that leaves about 11,000 households dependent on sirens that are hard to hear inside a house and are never loud enough to wake you up unless you happen to live right under one. Midland offers their WR-100 radio for $22 each to non-profits and government agencies. If you've got one of these, you'll know they're a pretty decent radio. We could buy a weather radio for each of those 11,000 households for $242,000. The county wants to spend about $290,000 to upgrade the existing sirens and add a few more. Seems like a no-brainer to buy weather radios instead of keeping up a system of WWII sirens. I've bought this up to the county commissioners at three separate meetings and was told they are still "considering" the idea. I get the feeling someone's cousin is in the siren business. :)






Weather Radio and Radio Scanner Tone for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning while under a tornado watch.


Midland WR-100


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
253. Articuno
10:58 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
I found this and I wanted to share:


Link
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
252. displacedFloridian
10:54 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)


I think this is my first post after lurking for about 6-7 years, but I just had to give kudos for this blast! Well done!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
251. Xandra
10:53 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I just read the article and it seems to contradict itself:

"Storms have gotten stronger even as the seas have cooled slightly, due to the south Asian atmospheric brown cloud has also increased due to rising pollution levels, they conclude. Normally cooler seas would lead to weaker storms.
However the combination of cooler seas and a warmer upper atmosphere has reduced the temperature gradient of the atmosphere, from the surface to upper levels above the Arabian Sea. This, in turn, has led to less vertical wind shear, which disrupts storms."

and it is followed by this:

"The bottom line is that six years ago a lot of scientists pointed to rising carbon dioxide levels (warming the atmosphere) as a culprit for increasing hurricane activity. Now another group of scientists say, in this particular hurricane basin, it’s aerosols (which cool the atmosphere)."

Is the atmosphere in the Arabian Basin warming or cooling? The article seems to say that it is doing both. What I am I missing here? Cooler SSTs and a cooler atmosphere would tend to lead to fewer and less potent storms, would it not? How can aerosols then cool the atmosphere over cooler SSTs and lead to stronger storms? .... Does not compute.

Here is the article in Nature and it says nothing about some cooling and the sea surface temperature in the Arabian Sea is above normal.
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
250. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
I guess everybody decided to leave...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32829

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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