November Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2011

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Hurricane Rina is gone, and the tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no models predicting development of a tropical depression during the coming seven days. So, are we all done for 2011? Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time spawn a Tropical Storm Sean? Let's try and come up some answers. Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, ten of the sixteen years (62%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of fifteen late-season storms:

2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (20%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. However, as I noted in the wake of last year's Hurricane Tomas last November in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 1. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Forecast for November 2011
The oceans are certainly warm enough to support continued development of tropical cyclones. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over a wide area of the tropical Atlantic are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and are well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 2.) However, wind shear is starting to rise over much of the tropical Atlantic as the jet stream moves farther south in its usual seasonal cycle. Wind shear over most of the Atlantic will be too high to support tropical storm formation over the coming two weeks, according to the latest run of the GFS model (Figure 3.) Only the southern Caribbean and a few transient pockets in the middle Atlantic east and southeast of Bermuda will have low enough wind shear to support tropical storm formation over the next two weeks. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, far from land, in a region where an extratropical low pressure system gets cut off from the jet stream and lingers long enough over warm waters to acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting a system like this may take form 7 - 10 days from now. Taking all these factors into account, I predict we are all done this hurricane season with storms that will cause loss of life, but there is still a 70% chance that we will get one or more named storms in the middle Atlantic that will stay out to sea and not affect land.


Figure 2. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2011. The black dotted line is the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which marks the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast for November 11, 2011, as predicted by the 2am EDT November 1, 2011 run of the GFS model. The model is predicting low wind shear of less than 4 m/s (about 8 knots, light red colors) in the southern Caribbean and southern Lesser Antilles Islands. Very high wind shear in excess of 44 m/s (85 knots, orange colors), associated with the jet stream, will protect regions north of the Caribbean.

I'll have a new post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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RAWS FT. YUKON AK US, Chalkyitsik, Alaska (PWS)
Partly Cloudy
-20 °F
Partly Cloudy
Windchill: -20 °F
Humidity: 72%
Dew Point: -26 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: in
Visibility: 10.0 miles
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Cooooooold winter setting up
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Death Valley; the Grand Canyon (bit of a side trip, but worth it); Meteor Crater; Albuquerque (Sandia Mountain); Oklahoma City (The National Memorial; Severe Storms Lab); the Ozarks; Memphis (especially if you're into real barbecue [or Elvis]). It's a nice ride; I've made it a dozen times or more...
Nea, you forgot the Painted Desert, the Petrified forest and Carlsbad Caverns. All beautiful places and on his route, more or less :)
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Hellava front plunging into TX, 39 and falling at Amarillo,TX

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The season is NOT over. There still is 28 days left and there will probably be a STS in the subtropical region or a weak TS in the Caribbean before the season is done...... JMHO.......
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194. MahFL
I was looking at the CP power and lightning outage map and it's not changed from the 44 % all morning.
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Quoting AnthonyJKenn:

And then we all complain when they don't name enough storms (read, Jose), or when storms don't pan out to our fantasies (Lee, Rina).

Really, y'all...weather forecasting is still an inexact science, and NOAA/NWS/NHC do as good a job as they can to forecast the weather. Sometimes Ma Nature just throws us curveballs.
br>I'll take them and our local mets over AccuWeather any day of the week.



Anthony

Some local Met's need to do cooking shows instead of weather forecasting..
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Quoting jrweatherman:



Just curious, what do you mean "another season pretty much bites the dust"?

I'm from Arizona - I suppose it originated from being tossed from a horse - but I used in the sense of the season is mostly over - unless we get one of the late ones popping up.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Thanks! That was the first one to have a religious angle--in the previous 5 battles I covered religion was not a factor.

That was the background---over the next week I'll write up an account of the storms and the battles the Spanish Armada was in.


One of the best loved events in British history.

One of the few that we're not pathetically embarrassed about.
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.."I cant believe they didnt na....."
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Quoting niederwaldboy:
They name as many storms as possible these days to justify their existence and funding. PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!
And then we all complain when they don't name enough storms (read, Jose), or when storms don't pan out to our fantasies (Lee, Rina).

Really, y'all...weather forecasting is still an inexact science, and NOAA/NWS/NHC do as good a job as they can to forecast the weather. Sometimes Ma Nature just throws us curveballs.

I'll take them and our local mets over AccuWeather any day of the week.



Anthony
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Tomas, he did cause 68 deaths and $488 million in damage. And only got to a Cat 2, so things could of been worse.


Tomas weakened considerably in the Central Caribbean before restrengthening as it hit Haiti. Caribbean Cruiser is one to me that trucks the entire length of the Caribbean as a major hurricane or most of it as one.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23628
Quoting JNCali:
Hey All.. gonna be moving to TN next week.. hate to change my handle though (JNTen maybe?... Taking the I40 across from SoCal to Nashville (exchanging earthquakes for tornado's.. at least until the New Madrid fault pops) weather is supposed to be cool but not cold, any suggestions for good spots to stop along the way?? Thanks!

Death Valley; the Grand Canyon (bit of a side trip, but worth it); Meteor Crater; Albuquerque (Sandia Mountain); Oklahoma City (The National Memorial; Severe Storms Lab); the Ozarks; Memphis (especially if you're into real barbecue [or Elvis]). It's a nice ride; I've made it a dozen times or more...
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Hey All.. gonna be moving to TN next week.. hate to change my handle though (JNTen maybe?... Taking the I40 across from SoCal to Nashville (exchanging earthquakes for tornado's.. at least until the New Madrid fault pops) weather is supposed to be cool but not cold, any suggestions for good spots to stop along the way?? Thanks!
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tropical Storm Don report is up. No changes in intensity.

Link

No changes in intensity--though his life was extended for an additional six hours (ten TWOs instead of the previous nine), and his ACE was bumped from 1.4975 to 1.62. (He's still in 14th place on the 2011 ACE list, though he's just 0.0075 under Arlene, so he could easily move into 13th once Arlene's TCR is released.)
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Tropical Storm Don report is up. No changes in intensity.

Link
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Quoting BackwoodsTN:
and if that happens,,r we talkin a tropical system or maybe hurricane and where wud it go???


If the wave survives and makes it, yes...a tropical system. As far as where it would go, that's too far out for accurate steering.
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181. eddye
ppl can u tell me how cold it is going 2 get for my birthday in jacksonville nov 11
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180. eddye
wow low 40 for jacksonville
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Quoting TropicTraveler:
Good morning. From tropical storms and hurricanes to snow storms and winter in a few short weeks. Another season (pretty much) bites the dust. Still watching to see if a late one pops up, but it's hard to imagine with the freezing weather creeping down from Canada. Won't be long before we are wanting to be down in the tropics to get warm. Don't know if Pottery has the coffee on yet but I need some. It's cold out there this morning and still dark.



Just curious, what do you mean "another season pretty much bites the dust"?
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178. afj3

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Quoting BackwoodsTN:
do u think it has a chance to develop into anything or are the conditions to hostile at the moment?


Only if it can make it into the Caribbean in the next 5-7 days.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah but we know what can happen to TW's once they get into the right conditions. Do they exist anywhere in the ATL?


Might have a STS off the SE US next week by the looks of the GFS this morning. Other than that the ATL is pretty much shut down at the moment but the MJO is returning next week so well see.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just a tropical wave.


Yeah but we know what can happen to TW's once they get into the right conditions. Do they exist anywhere in the ATL?
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Quoting BackwoodsTN:

What's out there?

Just a tropical wave.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31558
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Quoting stoormfury:
morning
a fairly large area of convection east of the windwards is beginning to take an appearance of an invest. although wind shear is unfavourable for development. The area is showing some degree of spin in the lower cloud field, which can be substantiated in the latest 850mb vorticity charts.


Yep saw that needs to keep low to survive as shear to it´s north is really strong.

Will be interesting to see if it survives
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morning
a fairly large area of convection east of the windwards is beginning to take an appearance of an invest. although wind shear is unfavourable for development. The area is showing some degree of spin in the lower cloud field, which can be substantiated in the latest 850mb vorticity charts.
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Good morning. From tropical storms and hurricanes to snow storms and winter in a few short weeks. Another season (pretty much) bites the dust. Still watching to see if a late one pops up, but it's hard to imagine with the freezing weather creeping down from Canada. Won't be long before we are wanting to be down in the tropics to get warm. Don't know if Pottery has the coffee on yet but I need some. It's cold out there this morning and still dark.
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Good morning.

A wet pattern will establish for Puerto Rico and adjacent islands for the next few days.Below is an excerpt from this morning's discussion by the San Juan NWS.

A VERY UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY/DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER IN RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...A GRADUAL INCREASE ON
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2.15 INCHES ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE POLAR TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
SHEARLINE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ON SUNDAY.

THEREFORE...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...THURSDAY AND SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAYS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MUCH STRONGER ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
BEHIND THE SHEARLINE.

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big system out east of the windwards i picked 12 at the beginning since no name will likely be added not the greatest forecast. damn lee and irene screwed it up or damage would of been mimumal p rico had a bad season too due to heavy rain
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Ok, it is now November 2nd. While I would not call this season a 'bust' as an inactive season is actually a GOOD thing, can't we call a rabbit a rabbit? For the post 1995 period, this was an incredibly slow season. Were it not for the satellite storms forming off of cutoff lows in the mid Atlantic (things that never would have gotten a name in years past) the numbers would be way down, and this is the second lowest number of hurricanes in the past 20 years. I believe the same was true of the number of majors. Other than Irene there was no real threat to land all season. I don't want this to start an AGW debate as a) I am a believer b)it was more to do with wind shear and the MJO, but just because we believe in AGW doesn't mean we have to make every data point fit what we theorize will happen due to it, and this season was NOT active, sorry.
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162. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
8:30 AM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Intensified Into A Cyclonic Storm KEILA Over West Central Arabian Sea .

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over west central Arabian Sea moved westward and intensified into a cyclonic storm. Cyclonic Storm Keila lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.0N 55.0E, or about 2150 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 400 km north-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 150 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast to south of Salalah around Thursday night/evening.

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area south Oman adjoining Yemen between 13.5N to 20.0N and 52.5E to 58.0E and moderate to intense convection over northeast Oman adjoining northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system center.

Storm Surge Guide
=================

Storm surge of height 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C around the center. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the center and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate (10-20 knots) There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear (-5 to -10 knots) around the center. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of center. 24 hour pressure tendency is positive along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1004 hPA. Buoy near 16.5N 55.1E reported sea level pressure of 999.2 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

09 HRS: 16.0N 54.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 16.0N 53.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 16.0N 52.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
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Arabian Sea

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I wouldn't consider Gustav a dangerous Caribbean Cruiser, he only got powerful as he approached Cuba in the Western Caribbean. I'm talking about Gilbert, Allen, Dean, and Felix situations. High being strong enough to force them straight west into Central America or Texas while being very powerful all the way through.

Tomas, he did cause 68 deaths and $488 million in damage. And only got to a Cat 2, so things could of been worse.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Ah, this should be fun. I am writing Don's report, and am right up to the point where he attained peak intensity.

It should be rather interesting to analyze the possible reasons for his abrupt weakening.


I already know the answer to that one, Koritheman. Don's downfall was trying to approach the Texas coastline. Texas evaporated it as soon as it approached the coast!
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Quoting WoodyFL:


I thought it snowed there last week, or are you talking about currently? Please be specific. :)


At this hour I'm usually vague :)
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
No snow yet in Denver but it's coming. November in the Rockies! At least the snow is where it's supposed to be :)


I thought it snowed there last week, or are you talking about currently? Please be specific. :)
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You're right Taz, down 8 degrees in last hour :)
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
No snow yet in Denver but it's coming. November in the Rockies! At least the snow is where it's supposed to be :)




its snowing there now


and sticking


lol


Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114779
No snow yet in Denver but it's coming. November in the Rockies! At least the snow is where it's supposed to be :)
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boy did thing really go down hill fast in denver
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I bet you wish you were there, huh? ;)






yes and no



yes i wish i was but no i dont think i can stan the temper up and downs
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151. BaltimoreBrian
2:49 AM GMT on November 02, 2011
Don't forget to see Jupiter in the east tonight and this week when it is fair.


Venus is emerging as an evening star and will gradually get higher and brighter all winter and into early spring.

Mercury is also visible. I was *just* able to see Mercury. Venus and Mercury are 2 degrees apart in the sky. Mercury is below Venus at sunset.

Here's a simple trick to locating dimmer objects close to bright objects like Venus.




If you hold out your arm all the way and make a fist, your fist is about 10 degrees across. Hold your fist so it is vertical. Have Venus at the top of your fist. Now look down a little less than a finger's width and you'll see a fainter 'star'. That's Mercury.

Do this 30 minutes after sunset when the sky is clear.

Now that you are armed (literally) with this knowledge, you can locate objects easily in reference to brighter objects when you read about them on the Sky and Telescope site!
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
150. KoritheMan
2:45 AM GMT on November 02, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:


I bet you wish you were there, huh? ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20023

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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