November Atlantic hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:35 PM GMT on November 01, 2011

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Hurricane Rina is gone, and the tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no models predicting development of a tropical depression during the coming seven days. So, are we all done for 2011? Or will this seventh-busiest hurricane season of all-time spawn a Tropical Storm Sean? Let's try and come up some answers. Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, ten of the sixteen years (62%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of fifteen late-season storms:

2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (20%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. However, as I noted in the wake of last year's Hurricane Tomas last November in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 1. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Forecast for November 2011
The oceans are certainly warm enough to support continued development of tropical cyclones. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over a wide area of the tropical Atlantic are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, and are well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 2.) However, wind shear is starting to rise over much of the tropical Atlantic as the jet stream moves farther south in its usual seasonal cycle. Wind shear over most of the Atlantic will be too high to support tropical storm formation over the coming two weeks, according to the latest run of the GFS model (Figure 3.) Only the southern Caribbean and a few transient pockets in the middle Atlantic east and southeast of Bermuda will have low enough wind shear to support tropical storm formation over the next two weeks. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, far from land, in a region where an extratropical low pressure system gets cut off from the jet stream and lingers long enough over warm waters to acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting a system like this may take form 7 - 10 days from now. Taking all these factors into account, I predict we are all done this hurricane season with storms that will cause loss of life, but there is still a 70% chance that we will get one or more named storms in the middle Atlantic that will stay out to sea and not affect land.


Figure 2. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2011. The black dotted line is the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which marks the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast for November 11, 2011, as predicted by the 2am EDT November 1, 2011 run of the GFS model. The model is predicting low wind shear of less than 4 m/s (about 8 knots, light red colors) in the southern Caribbean and southern Lesser Antilles Islands. Very high wind shear in excess of 44 m/s (85 knots, orange colors), associated with the jet stream, will protect regions north of the Caribbean.

I'll have a new post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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I guess everybody decided to leave...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32283
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, I got 76+ in August. My finest rant. lol.


Well, Cybr. We only did that because we wanted you to get off your soap-box. We needed the wood. (It was a good rant)
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Those were the days. A lot less hectic times than they are today. :)

Get your kicks on Route 66!
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2465
Just in case anybody wanted to see them, the NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for a few of the storms during the 2011 AHS.

Tropical Storm Cindy

Tropical Storm Don

Tropical Storm Franklin

Tropical Storm Gert
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32283
Quoting WoodyFL:


I figured somebody would eventually get it. Route 66 still has some amazing sights along the way. A good way to see the country as it was.


Those were the days. A lot less hectic times than they are today. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)


ROTFL!!!!!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, I got 76+ in August. My finest rant. lol.

kool
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2465
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)


LOLOL Nea I love you hahaha.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3590
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We've had triple that before.


Yea, I got 76+ in August. My finest rant. lol.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24188
Quoting Articuno:


Woah
look at the number of +'s!
thats the highest rating ive seen on a blog post

We've had triple that before.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32283
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)


Woah
look at the number of +'s!
thats the highest rating ive seen on a blog post
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2465
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You do. This is the one that is most desired:


I figured somebody would eventually get it. Route 66 still has some amazing sights along the way. A good way to see the country as it was.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting cyclonekid:
The only active tropical cyclone in the world has had it's last advisory written.


...
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2465
I scattered crab shells and did my incantation, warding against a Paloma-like early November storm. The shells fell in a circular pattern.

Thus, we are done. NO mas. :D


P.s. Dr. Jeff - Hurricane Paloma was on Nov. 8, the 76th anniversary of the "Storm of '32", which also hit Cayman Brac.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The only active tropical cyclone in the world has had it's last advisory written.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


check out this link regarding the Arabian Sea storm. It is pretty interesting

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/11/new-study-ae rosols-not-pollution-responsible-for-stronger-hurr icanes/


I just read the article and it seems to contradict itself:

"Storms have gotten stronger even as the seas have cooled slightly, due to the south Asian atmospheric brown cloud has also increased due to rising pollution levels, they conclude. Normally cooler seas would lead to weaker storms.
However the combination of cooler seas and a warmer upper atmosphere has reduced the temperature gradient of the atmosphere, from the surface to upper levels above the Arabian Sea. This, in turn, has led to less vertical wind shear, which disrupts storms."

and it is followed by this:

"The bottom line is that six years ago a lot of scientists pointed to rising carbon dioxide levels (warming the atmosphere) as a culprit for increasing hurricane activity. Now another group of scientists say, in this particular hurricane basin, it’s aerosols (which cool the atmosphere)."

Is the atmosphere in the Arabian Basin warming or cooling? The article seems to say that it is doing both. What I am I missing here? Cooler SSTs and a cooler atmosphere would tend to lead to fewer and less potent storms, would it not? How can aerosols then cool the atmosphere over cooler SSTs and lead to stronger storms? .... Does not compute.
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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
Its sad to see the tropics fade away with no more excitement of watching a developing storm.

This was a strange year for sure so many tropical storms and few hurricanes.

Time to go into hibernation till June 2012.


It would have been nice to get a weak tropical storm in the Gulf so those of us in drought, including Texas and Alabama, could have gotten some much needed rain. Other than that, I'd be happy to see every hurricane season like this one. After the 2005 season, I think most of us who live in hurricane prone areas have had enough excitment to last another 10 years or so.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
Quoting WoodyFL:


I thought you need a Corvette to travel on Route 66?


You do. This is the one that is most desired:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


check out this link regarding the Arabian Sea storm. It is pretty interesting

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/11/new-study-ae rosols-not-pollution-responsible-for-stronger-hurr icanes/


Try this link instead:

Link
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
sar2401 Great post and plus 1!


Thanks. I have no idea why we keep spending money on early 20th century technology in 2011. Our county has about 50,000 people. That's about 14,000 households. If we assume that 20% of the households already have a weather radio, that leaves about 11,000 households dependent on sirens that are hard to hear inside a house and are never loud enough to wake you up unless you happen to live right under one. Midland offers their WR-100 radio for $22 each to non-profits and government agencies. If you've got one of these, you'll know they're a pretty decent radio. We could buy a weather radio for each of those 11,000 households for $242,000. The county wants to spend about $290,000 to upgrade the existing sirens and add a few more. Seems like a no-brainer to buy weather radios instead of keeping up a system of WWII sirens. I've bought this up to the county commissioners at three separate meetings and was told they are still "considering" the idea. I get the feeling someone's cousin is in the siren business. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
Its sad to see the tropics fade away with no more excitement of watching a developing storm.

This was a strange year for sure so many tropical storms and few hurricanes.

Time to go into hibernation till June 2012.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So it was another year of recurves............will that be the case for 2012?? we shall see!
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228. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
20:30 PM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea moved slightly north northwestward and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.8N 54.3E, or 30 km south southeast of Salalah, Oman and 470 km north northeast of Socotra Island, Yemen.

The system is likely to move west northwestward for some time and then westward, crossing south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast close to Salalah around Thursday evening.

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea, Oman adjoining Yemen between 13.5 to 20.0N - 52.5E to 58.0E, and Gulf of Oman adjoining rest of northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -67C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system.

STORM SURGE GUIDE
==================

Storm surge of height of 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence show no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the system center and is not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear (-5 to -10 knots) around the system. THe system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system. The lowest mean sea level pressure reported by Salalah is 1001.5 hPa.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A lot of people refer to them as InAccuWeather, just so you know. ;)

There is a chance of severe weather next week, especially on Tuesday. But, an outbreak? Unlikely.


Yeah, I thought it was AccuWeather, since it starts off with an "Expert Senior Meteorologist". You'd kinda hope the senior guy would be an expert. :) I don't see anything in the long range outlook that would suggest a widespread severe weather outlook like we had this spring. November to February is our secondary severe weather season, so we need to keep an eye on what's happening, but I really hate things being advertised like that with not much to go on.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
Quoting WoodyFL:


I thought you need a Corvette to travel on Route 66?

;-) Well, you don't need one--but it sure helps. Especially if it's, say, a Rally Red '67 Sting Ray convertible.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13567
Quoting WoodyFL:


I thought you need a Corvette to travel on Route 66?


Nah, Woody, but it would make it a lot more fun. :) My favorite area is old 66 from Kingman to Flagstaff. Almost no traffic, lots of trains, and the Grand Canyon Caverns which are pretty neat, even if the signs make it look like a tourist trap.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)

Oh my.. I spit my coffee out reading that LOL
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Quoting sar2401:


What is the source for these comments? I don't know these guys and have no idea how much credence to place in their outlooks. If it's AccuWeather, I'd need some correlation from other forecasters before I started getting too worked up.

A lot of people refer to them as InAccuWeather, just so you know. ;)

There is a chance of severe weather next week, especially on Tuesday. But, an outbreak? Unlikely.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32283
Neapolitan, good forecast, but you really need a few more exclamation points to make it believable to the tinfoil hat crowd. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Next Week
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Nov 2, 2011; 12:20


What is the source for these comments? I don't know these guys and have no idea how much credence to place in their outlooks. If it's AccuWeather, I'd need some correlation from other forecasters before I started getting too worked up.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
Quoting Neapolitan:

True. I-40 goes straight through the Petrified Forest (there are mineralized logs laying about here and there just off of the highway) and the Painted Desert. Carlsbad Caverns would be another long side-trip south, but worth it if you haven't seen it.

Of course, there's also also old U.S. Route 66, which more or less parallels I-40 through the Southwest. Some parts are overly kitschy and touristy, but it's still a neat thing--and often a better view--to take it rather than the interstate if you have the time...


I thought you need a Corvette to travel on Route 66?
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)

lol
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2465
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)

LOL.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32283
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
810 AM EDT WED NOV 2 2011

...OCTOBER 2011 WAS COOLER AND MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...

A MORE DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN SET UP OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
OCTOBER...BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT BROUGHT COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA. THIS ALLOWED FOR
A MONTH THAT WAS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE-WISE AND MADE FOR ONE OF
THE WETTEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD.

.RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIRMASS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON THE 1ST KEPT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL OUT OF THE PICTURE INTO MUCH OF THE FIRST WEEK
OF OCTOBER. THEN ON THE 7TH A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BEGAN TO COMBINE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND A DISTURBED FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT INTO THE SECOND WEEKEND OF THE
MONTH. RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS EVENT (FROM THE 7TH-9TH) AROUND
6-10 INCHES WERE NOT UNCOMMON ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL
UP TO 12 TO NEAR 17 INCHES OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY AND
NEAR PALM BAY AND VERO BEACH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE PEAK OF
THE EVENT ON THE 8TH RANKED AMONG SOME OF THE HIGHEST DAILY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EVER RECORDED.

RAINFALL FROM OCTOBER 8TH (FOR SELECT SITES) AND HOW IT RANKS AMONG
THE HIGHEST DAILY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR OCTOBER AND DURING THE
ENTIRE PERIOD OF RECORD:

STATION RAINFALL OCTOBER ENTIRE RECORD
TOTALS RANK RANK

ORLANDO 5.68" 3RD HIGHEST 7TH HIGHEST
MELBOURNE 6.16" 2ND HIGHEST 9TH HIGHEST
VERO BEACH 8.30" 2ND HIGHEST 3RD HIGHEST

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THAT HAPPENED DURING THIS EVENT WAS
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS FROM A GALE FORCE LOW THAT DEVELOPED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ON THE 9TH. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED
MINOR WIND DAMAGE AS IT GENERATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40-50 MPH AND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75-80 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT PLEASE VISIT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/

AND CLICK ON OUR STORM SURVEYS PAGE.

NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WAS THEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE MONTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS BUILT INTO THE
AREA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE 14TH. THEN ANOTHER HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT OCCURRED ON THE 18TH WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FELL ON THIS
DAY...MAINLY OVER OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. IN
ADDITION TWO EF-0 TORNADOES DEVELOPED WITH STORMS DURING THIS
EVENT...ONE IN INDIANTOWN AND THE OTHER IN VERO BEACH.

THE DRIER AIRMASS THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THE 19TH SIGNALED THE BEGINNING OF THE DRY SEASON OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE INTO LATE
MONTH THEN BROUGHT MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION...AS
WELL AS THE THIRD EF-0 TORNADO TO THE IMPACT THE AREA. THIS ONE
STRUCK HOBE SOUND ON THE 29TH AND PRODUCED DAMAGE TO 42 MOBILE HOMES
IN THE AREA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS DURING THE MONTH ALLOWED FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
VERO BEACH WAS THE HIGHEST OF THESE WITH A TOTAL THAT WAS 17.02
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AND MADE FOR THEIR WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD!
THIS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FINALLY PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS THAT WERE IN PLACE.

OCTOBER 2011 RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE FOUR MAIN CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE AS FOLLOWS (RANKINGS PROVIDED IF IN THE TOP
10):

-DAYTONA BEACH RECEIVED 5.88 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH, WHICH
WAS 1.67 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

-ORLANDO RECEIVED 8.87 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
3.31 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 9TH WETTEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE.


-MELBOURNE RECEIVED 9.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
5.06 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 9TH WETTEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE.


-VERO BEACH RECEIVED 21.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH, WHICH
WAS 17.02 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE WETTEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE...SMASHING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 15.58 INCHES
SET IN 1983. THIS IS ALSO THE 2ND WETTEST MONTH FOR VERO BEACH...
FALLING SHORT OF THE 23.01 INCHES THAT FELL DURING SEPTEMBER OF
2004.

BELOW IS A LIST OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND RAINFALL
STATISTICS FOR SELECT SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR OCTOBER
2011:

STATION OCTOBER 2011 30 YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL NORMAL

DAYTONA BEACH 5.88" 4.21" 1.67" 140%
(DAB)
ORLANDO 8.87" 3.31" 5.56" 268%
(MCO)
MELBOURNE 9.54" 5.06" 4.48" 189%
(MLB)
VERO BEACH 21.93" 4.91" 17.02" 447%
(VRB)
CLERMONT 7.01" 2.52" 4.49" 278%
(CLRF1)
DELAND 5.69" 4.18" 1.51" 136%
(DELF1)
SANFORD 7.27" 3.93" 3.34" 185%
(SFNF1)
TITUSVILLE 7.44" 4.72" 2.72" 158%
(TITF1)
FORT PIERCE 16.47" 5.42" 11.05" 304%
(FPCF1)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)


This deserves best post of the year!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
sar2401 Great post and plus 1!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Seems as if Dixie Alley is becoming Tornado Alley. Folks please be aware get a noaa radio as La-Nina is notarious for big Tornado Outbreaks across the Deep South during the Winter Months due to warmer than average temps across the gulf coast.


I'm pretty sure everyone on here has a weather radio. :) What I wish would happen is that local and state governments would stop spending money on replacing worn out sirens and buy weather radios for the citizens. The sirens can't be heard in a lot of places and, even if you hear them, they give you no information. During las April's tornado outbreaks, the sirens in central Alabama were going off almost continuously, to the point that people started ignoring them. If everyone had a weather radio, at least they'd know what the warnings were for and if they were in danger.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)

The best post of the season!!!!!
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Quoting niederwaldboy:
They name as many storms as possible these days to justify their existence and funding. PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

That's true!!!!! I heard next year they are planning to name one storm for every day of the season!!!!! They will even name thunderstorms if they have to justify their existence and get their numbers!!! And if there are no thunderstorms, they'll name individual cumulus clouds!!!!! And if there are no cumulus clouds, they'll name dust devils!!!!! No, really!!!!!!!!!!! Next year's count will be 180-150-125!!! They will use the regular alphabet, then the Greek one!!!!!!!! Then the Cyrillic one!!! Then the Arabic one!!!!!! Then the Ge'ez one!! Then the Tana one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then they'll finally close out the year with a mixture of the North and South Indic ones!!!!!!!!! Watch!!!!!!! Just to justify their existence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And funding!!!!!!!! PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!

;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13567
For those who may still be interested...

We're doing the November edition of Prepare to Survive tonight at 7 p.m. eastern

Our guests will be talking about power outages and safety before, during and after a hurricane, and Florida's building codes.

Join the fun at

http://www.pinellascounty.org/eseries
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Quoting TropicTraveler:

Somebody last week said he's fine - just taking a break.
He is. Just not as interested in tropical weather as he was and busy with life in general.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Nea, you forgot the Painted Desert, the Petrified forest and Carlsbad Caverns. All beautiful places and on his route, more or less :)

True. I-40 goes straight through the Petrified Forest (there are mineralized logs laying about here and there just off of the highway) and the Painted Desert. Carlsbad Caverns would be another long side-trip south, but worth it if you haven't seen it.

Of course, there's also also old U.S. Route 66, which more or less parallels I-40 through the Southwest. Some parts are overly kitschy and touristy, but it's still a neat thing--and often a better view--to take it rather than the interstate if you have the time...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13567
Quoting EastTexJake:
I'm kind of interested in the Storm in the Arabian Sea at the moment. Is that an unusual place to see a tropical cyclone? Where might one find historic records of storms in that area?


check out this link regarding the Arabian Sea storm. It is pretty interesting

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/11/new-study-ae rosols-not-pollution-responsible-for-stronger-hurr icanes/
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Anybody heard from IKE? I miss his post.

Somebody last week said he's fine - just taking a break.
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I'm kind of interested in the Storm in the Arabian Sea at the moment. Is that an unusual place to see a tropical cyclone? Where might one find historic records of storms in that area?
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Seems as if Dixie Alley is becoming Tornado Alley. Folks please be aware get a noaa radio as La-Nina is notarious for big Tornado Outbreaks across the Deep South during the Winter Months due to warmer than average temps across the gulf coast.
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That's a week out, too early to be concerned
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Anybody heard from IKE? I miss his post.
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Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Next Week
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Nov 2, 2011; 12:20
|
The severe weather threat area could be even larger than this graphic shows.
As storm systems, jet stream energy and temperature contrast converge over the middle of the nation next week, an outbreak of severe weather is possible from Texas and the southern Plains to the Southeast and the Ohio Valley.

The weather pattern next week will favor building warmth over much of the eastern half of the nation with a flow of humid air developing off the Gulf of Mexico over the South Central states.

Meanwhile, a potent storm system is forecast to travel from Texas to the Great Lakes during the middle of the week.

If the currently growing dip in the jet stream in the West were to lunge toward the Mississippi Valley around the same time, we could be looking at damaging thunderstorms including tornadoes in part of an area hit hard by violent weather during the spring.


It is too early to give much detail on the situation. However, it appears the size of the threat area for severe thunderstorms at this time would be rather large and stretch from central Texas to south-central Kansas, eastward to the Florida Panhandle to the Ohio Valley.


The storm set to cause all the trouble over the middle of the nation next week will be dropping southward along the Pacific Coast this weekend.
The storms would shift from west to east across this area, spanning Tuesday through Thursday, meaning that most locations would be under the threat for a 12- to 18-hour period.

The details of the potentially dangerous weather situation will unfold in the coming days. AccuWeather.com meteorologists are very concerned and wanted to give severe-weather-weary folks in the region a heads-up.


On average, there is a second spike in severe weather during the fall.
Long Range Weather Expert Paul Pastelok expressed concern for severe weather outbreaks in the general area of the southern Plains and South Central states in the AccuWeather.com 2011-2012 Fall Forecast, issued back in August.

Pastelok feels the severe weather would fit in to the changes taking place in the atmosphere as winter takes hold over the North Central states beginning during the middle to latter part of November.

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People in the Deep South really need to monitor the wx set up early to mid next week as another potentially damaging Tornado Outbreak maybe looming!
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Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.