Rina pulls its punch; Thai floods worsen; Texas gets snow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2011

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Tropical Storm Rina is being ripped apart by strong upper-level southerly winds creating 30 knots of wind shear over the storm. Visible satellite loops show that the low-level circulation of Rina is just a naked swirl over Cancun, on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The shear has torn away Rina's heavy thunderstorms so that they lie about 200 miles to the northeast of the center. Cancun radar shows almost no rain affecting the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding the waters, even though the center of the storm is directly over Cancun. Last night, Rina brought wind gusts of up to 41 mph to Cancun and 43 mph at Cozumel, where 8.20" of rain fell yesterday. Damage from Rina to Cozumel and Cancun should be very minor, and I expect the hotels there will be open for business today.

Rina will continue to be sheared apart today, with the low level center expected to drift slowly southwards along the Yucatan coast. Long range radar out of Key West shows that moisture streaming to the northeast from Rina is bringing rain to the Southwest coast of Florida. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches are likely over the Florida Keys and South Florida through Sunday due to moisture from Rina. Wind shear should be able to destroy the circulation of Rina by Saturday.


Figure 1. What tropical storm? It's hard to tell a tropical storm with 45 mph winds was centered over this beach in Cancun, Mexico this morning. Rina's heavy rains and strong wind were several hundred miles to the northeast of Cancun this morning, thanks to strong upper-level winds that sheared the storm apart.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rina showing the center of circulation over the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles to the northeast of the center.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A broad region of low pressure in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and Honduras is drifting slowly northwest at less than 5 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity is disorganized and relatively modest, and NHC is giving the region a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Heavy rains from the disturbance will affect Honduras, the Cayman Islands, and Nicaragua Friday through Sunday. None of the reliable computer models are showing development of a new tropical depression in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though we will continue to see disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean that could generate something.

Thailand's Great Flood likely to peak this weekend
The most damaging natural disaster in Thailand history is growing more serious, as the flood waters besieging the capital of Bangkok continue to overwhelm defenses and inundate the city. Heavy rains during September and October have led to extreme flooding that has killed 373 people and caused that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history, with a cost now estimated at $6 billion. Thailand's previous most expensive disaster was the $1.3 billion price tag of the November 27, 1993 flood, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Floodwaters have swamped fields and cities in a third of Thailand's provinces, affected 9 million people, and damaged approximately 10% of the nation's rice crop. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice, so the disaster may put further upward pressure on world food prices, which are already at the highest levels since the late 1970s. The highest tide of the month occurs this weekend at 8:07 am ICT in the capital of Bangkok, and the additional pressure that incoming salt water puts on the flood walls protecting the city is a major concern. Fortunately, the monsoon has been quiet this week over Southeast Asia, and the latest GFS model precipitation forecast show little additional rain over the country in the coming week. Heavy monsoon rains are common in Thailand and Southeast Asia during La Niña events, and we currently have a weak La Niña event occurring. Ocean temperatures in the waters surrounding Thailand during September and October have been approximately 0.3°C above average, which has increased rainfall amounts by putting more water vapor into the air. The remains of Tropical Storm Haitang and Typhoon Nesat also brought heavy rains in late September which contributed to the flooding.


Figure 3. Top ten most expensive natural disasters in Thailand since 1900, as tabulated by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This month's disaster (number one on the table above) is not yet in the CRED data base.

Texas gets its first snow of the season
The first snow of the season blanketed parts of the western and central Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles yesterday. Officially, Amarillo, TX picked up 3.1" of snow, which was a record for the date (old record: 2.4" on Oct. 27, 1911.) Areas 6 miles southwest of Amarillo got up to five inches of snow. Amarillo's heaviest October snow on record was 9.0" on Oct.21 - 22, 1906. The earliest measurable snowfall at Amarillo is 0.3" on Sept. 29, 1984. Yesterday's snow was quite a contrast from Tuesday's weather, when the high hit 86°F in Amarillo! Normally Texas would grumble about getting snow so early in the year, but yesterday's 1.23" of precipitation in Amarillo was over 25% of their precipitation for the entire year. Amarillo has now had 4.84" of precipitation this year, which is almost 14" below normal. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the latest on the Texas drought in his latest post. He noted that Pecos, TX had received a paltry .48" so far this year, and that the driest calendar year in Texas records was 1.64" at Presidio in 1956. Well, Pecos got another 0.02" yesterday to bring their yearly total to 0.50", so that city is still on track to record the lowest rainfall of any city in Texas history.

My next post may not be until Sunday or Monday, depending upon the weather.

Jeff Masters

Amarillo snow! (oklahomagirl1)
Early Amarillo,Tx. snow.
Amarillo snow!
Raining in Bangkok (Bangkrood)
Water on the ground and on the sky comimg to Bangkok!!
Raining in Bangkok
Not any Race today (Faasai)
Bangkok Speedway on Khlong 5 flooded,more than 50cm
Not any Race today

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Arabian Sea

Member Since: October 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
Quoting WoodyFL:
its 4.02 am sat and look out south florida, the radar is Still..all yellow and orange, you must be getting soaked down there..alot of flooding will be reported come daylight..stay safe down there..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42277
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
On to a more serious topic. Was this storm complex in south FL forecast by models earlier? I am thinking that the models were not showing the rainfall down there as heavy as this. Honestly was paying attention to Rina and our noreaster up here. Not the Florida part.
i think they forecsted 1 to 3 inches for you guys in south florida, looks like they had no idea just how bad it really was going to be
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42277
305. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 29 2011
====================================

A Well Marked Low Pressure Area now lies over central parts of central Arabian Sea and adjoining south Arabian Sea. The system is likely to intensify into a depression during the next 24 hours

Vortex over central Arabian Sea adjoining south Arabian Sea center within half a degree of 13.0N 62.0E

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Arabian Sea between 9.0N to 18.0N 56.0E to 72.0E. Minimum cloud top temperatures is -79C.
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Quoting jonelu:
WOW! We got alot of rain. Lots of flooding in Palm Beach County. I drove from WPB to Boca and back and it was pretty intense. I hope we get some clearing for tomorrow nights festivities. Fingers crossed.
good morning, looks like we also got some good rain last night
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42277
WOW! We got alot of rain. Lots of flooding in Palm Beach County. I drove from WPB to Boca and back and it was pretty intense. I hope we get some clearing for tomorrow nights festivities. Fingers crossed.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah east..LOL it is Friday night:) I'll change it.



I'm in West Eau Gallie, FL~ north end of Melbourne.


Anyone around here, hear the really loud rumble from maybe the Melbourne Airport direction? They would last like 20 mins. Sounded like rocket engine testing all morning long. Anyone know what that is? Started a few years ago. Shakes the house.
Did a bit of a Google search for strange noises in your part of the world. May be from pressure tests associated with a natural gas pipeline seems to be making its way through the state and causing similar queries. Might call your county office or local paper see if they know anything. You can't be the only person hearing it and wondering. Of course it could be Alien Mother Ship in hover mode, one of the more often given probabilities at one site. ;)
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:

I think 2012 will be another above average season and possibly with some close to home mischief.

16-17 named storms

6-7 hurricanes

2-4 major hurricanes



This probably won't be really popular on this blog, but I suspect that 2012 will actually be a below normal season for tropical activity. I have no scientific reasoning for this forecast, it is just a hunch.

But after all, not all hurricane seasons can be way above normal with the total number of named systems. And it does not always have to be an El Niño season to be below normal in overall activity.

Even though we are well into the above average phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, there will be some years that will underperform, just as the opposite is the case during below average NAO periods.

My guess is that there will be ten named systems, six of those becoming hurricanes and four total major hurricanes. So in effect, even though the total number of storms will be slightly less than the long term average, a greater percentage of these total storms will be overachievers, so to speak. Notice how the opposite effect happened this year... what with all of the named systems but so few of those becoming big hurricanes.

We still know a lot less about just exactly what causes hurricane seasons to develop in the way that they do than we know specific reasons for why this happens. We are still in the early stages of understanding the full spectrum of the dynamics of tropical weather, as well as weather and climate in general.

Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
299. Skyepony (Mod)
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Uh, what happened to the blog?
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297. Skyepony (Mod)
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296. Skyepony (Mod)
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8-10" bulls eye in south PBC.

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Nice handle NotMax...lol

Here in North Miami, real good swath came through but it looks like we're done for the night. Hard to believe with how badly Broward and points north are getting it.
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Quoting notmaxmayfield:

I'm in Boca too. I think it may be closing in on 6-8 now. We just got a new roof in June and its leaking. Sheesh!!!


Bad here too in Boca, but our house is not leaking...at least I dont think it is. :P
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Quoting robj144:


Was it rich there before? :-)

Seriously, it's pouring like crazy in SE Palm Beach County for at least 2 hours so far. Must have had 4 to 6 inches of rain in that time.

I'm in Boca too. I think it may be closing in on 6-8 now. We just got a new roof in June and its leaking. Sheesh!!!
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You think there will be a Civil Emergency Message for this weather to urge people to stay away from driving in flooded roads? Like they did in North Dakota several months ago?
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hey stormpetrol looking at the surface map that plot seem near to where the surface map has it and also it going to come really closer to us that before look at the 00Z surface map

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gi f
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Those in SFL, shear is increasing as talked about.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL PENINSULA...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK AS OF
29/00-01Z. BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE
THAT AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND OR
ABOVE 30 KT. IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY ENLARGE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO OR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
THE KEYS AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE.


Thanks, Progressive. We in South Florida will all sleep better reading that at this hour. :P
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On to a more serious topic. Was this storm complex in south FL forecast by models earlier? I am thinking that the models were not showing the rainfall down there as heavy as this. Honestly was paying attention to Rina and our noreaster up here. Not the Florida part.
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Quoting WoodyFL:


You don't miss much, do you?


I shoulda been a sniper ;)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

baha we ain't from Japan we are Caymanians from Cayman NOT CAYMANESE ok
Yah, I know all too well... lol... thought I'd throw a bit of belligerent incorrectness around to fit the tone of the rest of the message.... ;o)

On a serious note, I agree w/ u guys that it's better 2 watch ur back with these returning systems.... whoever mentioned Ivan was right to do so on two fronts: first, the massive blow it gave to the Caymans, and second the loop-de-loop it did around the entire eastern half of the CONUS.... IMO, better to watch and make sure it's not coming back. We've been relatively lucky the last few seasons, because as bad as we've had it since about 1995, in every instance the storm impacts could have been even worse. Nevertheless, Bahamians keep a close eye on the tropical wx.

We just don't all post in the Doc's blog....
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Those in SFL, shear is increasing as talked about.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL PENINSULA...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK AS OF
29/00-01Z. BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE
THAT AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND OR
ABOVE 30 KT. IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY ENLARGE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO OR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
THE KEYS AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Been pouring like crazy in Broward county, FL since 9 pm. Torrential downpour up around the BankAtlantic Center on down to Coral Springs. Parts of the Sawgrass Expressway are flooded. Many local streets are looking like they have mini-lakes. Am gladly indoors and dry now!
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Quoting newenglader:
I'm in central northern CT. I still don't believe the forecast. I cant see 8 inches falling here. I will post pics though.
(post #275)

I see you don't post often so we will be looking forward to your pictures !!
Thanks in advance..
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Anyone interested in an update on the Turkey earthquake can use this site to get the latest news.

Short summary:
Update 28/10 – 13:16 UTC
-575 people have been killed.
- 2608 people have been injured
- 187 people have been rescued so far from the rubble.
More grim news on the loss front from the region:
From 10621 buildings examined:
-5739 have been found to be uninhabitable (8026 households – which could mean around 60000 people).
-4882 buildings have been damaged but are habitable (7660 households).
In terms of aftershocks, 1136 have occurred so far.
Sizes, ranging from M2 to 3 = 312,
ranging from M3 to 4 = 640,
ranging from M4 to 5 = 96,
ranging from M5 to 6 = 7
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So...does anybody have any 2012 AHS predictions? :P

I think 2012 will be another above average season and possibly with some close to home mischief.

16-17 named storms

6-7 hurricanes

2-4 major hurricanes

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


If you look at the bottom of most of the Washington DC discussions they end it with

WOODY!

I have no idea what that's about. I started noticing that 9 years ago. They did it during the Presidents' Day 2003 storm and have during strong weather events since.

Just Edit/search on the page and you'll find them.


Do you want to know who BJL is? You don't miss much, do you?
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lol I love how the forecast with the rain event tonight tonight ended up being very similar to a week ago, just not quite as bad. We weren't forecast to get 100% chance of storms with severe weather and a 5 inch QPF, but we were forecast to get up near 2 tonight, however, once again, all the rain is sliding by over South Florida. I can't really complain though, I had a really wet year, and parts of South Florida have been making up for the rain they didn't get during the wet season that we did.
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Drove from West Palm to Boca and the rain was as hard as I have ever seen it here in the 22 years that I have lived here. The only difference being that it was the entire trip home as opposed to lasting 5 or 10 minutes that it generally would.Lots of flooding.
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Quoting WoodyFL:


If you look at the bottom of most of the Washington DC discussions they end it with

WOODY!

I have no idea what that's about. I started noticing that 9 years ago. They did it during the Presidents' Day 2003 storm and have during strong weather events since.

Just Edit/find on the page and you'll find them.
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Quoting newenglader:
I'm in central northern CT. I still don't believe the forecast. I cant see 8+ inches falling here. I will post pics though.


They boosted our forecasted snow in downtown Baltimore up to 1 to 3 inches. I'm having a hard time seeing how that will happen.

That being said I will be thrilled to be wrong. I like snow.
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I'm in central northern CT. I still don't believe the forecast. I cant see 8+ inches falling here. I will post pics though.
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The remnant LLc of Rina is around 84.8W/21.8N! It was moving ESE, but now sames to be moving more Eastward, with this motion IMO chances of regeneration are slim! JMOLink
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It's still 47 here at the Baltimore Inner Harbor station, which represents the city well.

I'm not seeing accumulating snow beyond an inch for the big cities.

It's just too warm. Temps will drop but we have a long way to go.

We need very heavy precip to cool the air column down.

Florida is getting a big storm complex moving through. I'm not sure if that was forecast in the models. It may be stealing moisture needed to give us heavy precipitation.

I think to get a record breaking event all the conditions have to be perfect or nearly so. I'm not seeing perfection here.
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Quoting robj144:


Was it rich there before? :-)

Seriously, it's pouring like crazy in SE Palm Beach County for at least 2 hours so far. Must have had 4 to 6 inches of rain in that time.


I know, I went with my dad to his work here in Boca and we drove across an intersection that must've been flooded up to 3 feet deep. Probably the worst weather to hit this area in a while, maybe since Wilma.
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Quoting avthunder:
OK - it is getting nasty in NE Broward now. Also reports of street flooding in East Boca, SE Palm Beach County.



Going to rain all night and tomorrow too. Big numbers up already.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So...does anybody have any 2012 AHS predictions? :P


2,012 major hurricanes, 4,048,144 hurricanes (2012^2) and 8,144,865,728 tropical storms (2012^3). :P

But seriously, the lack of heat released in the Caribbean is worrying to me. We might get (a) very serious storm(s) in there next year if conditions allow for it. It will be 3rd year La Nina (well nearly) so storm numbers should be down, and 3rd year La Ninas generally have a more active Caribbean season than CV season. At least this is what I'm thinking.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting chrisdscane:
its about to poor here in miami


Was it rich there before? :-)

Seriously, it's pouring like crazy in SE Palm Beach County for at least 2 hours so far. Must have had 4 to 6 inches of rain in that time.
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Quoting chrisdscane:
its about to poor here in miami


Was it rich there before? :-)

Seriously, it's pouring like crazy in SE Palm Beach County for at least 2 hours so far. Must have had 4 to 6 inches of rain in that time.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So...does anybody have any 2012 AHS predictions? :P


Assuming you mean Atlantic Hurricane Season, I'd give you my forecast, but I just put my special, patented, Hurricane Forecasting Dart Board away for the night. :)
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Interesting to see how fast all that convection between Central America and Cuba has evaporated. Makes me wonder if the front and dry air has made it that far south. Whatever the case, it looks like that bunch of stuff is out of the picture in terms of a tropical storm.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So...does anybody have any 2012 AHS predictions? :P


If you tell us what an AHS is, we might play.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So...does anybody have any 2012 AHS predictions? :P




40 name storms
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So...does anybody have any 2012 AHS predictions? :P


I will in 2 years :P
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So...does anybody have any 2012 AHS predictions? :P
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It's stealing 97L too... lol. This could be worthy of a mid-winter Nor'Easter if all of this energy can get pulled together.
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258. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Due west or due east ?


Yeah east..LOL it is Friday night:) I'll change it.

Quoting avthunder:
Where are you located?


I'm in West Eau Gallie, FL~ north end of Melbourne.


Anyone around here, hear the really loud rumble from maybe the Melbourne Airport direction? They would last like 20 mins. Sounded like rocket engine testing all morning long. Anyone know what that is? Started a few years ago. Shakes the house.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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