Tropical Storm Rina continues to deteriorate; close to landfall in Mexico

By: Angela Fritz , 9:19 PM GMT on October 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Rina has taken a beating in the past 48 hours. Between a mass of dry air to its west and strong southerly wind shear, Rina has not been able to overcome its environment. At 5pm EDT, Rina had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving north at 7 mph. At 3:30pm EDT, Rina was located about 50 miles south of Cozumel. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found surface wind speeds of around 55 mph (moderate tropical storm-strength) on the north side of the storm and central pressure of 993 mb and rising. Rina's thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly since yesterday. The storm is battling a whopping 30 knots of wind shear, and its surface center is becoming exposed again this evening, which is apparent on satellite.

Wind speed on Cozumel is a breezy 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The island has received 0.28 inches of rain so far today, and it doesn't look like it's going to get much more than that. At Cancun, winds are blowing at 8 mph with gusts up to 15 mph and wave height on the beach is pretty low.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery shows Rina's thunderstorm activity has all but disappeared, and the surface center is exposed, likely due to the high wind shear from the south. Source: NOAA.


Forecast for Tropical Storm Rina
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to make landfall near Cozumel later this evening as a tropical storm. Over the next 48 hours, Rina is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as a cold front nudges it back into the Caribbean (Figure 2). The GFS is forecasting Rina to re-intensify to around 55 mph early next week. The ECMWF was predicting a similar event in this morning's forecast but has since backed off, and the HWRF agrees. The most likely scenario is that Rina's remnants will linger in the western Caribbean through the beginning of next week before finally dissolving into the surrounding environment.



Figure 2. Surface forecast for Saturday morning from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. A cold front dipping south into the Caribbean will be responsible for kicking Rina back into the Caribbean.

Angela

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361. Neapolitan
2:57 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting BackwoodsTN:

Ha nice try pawning that off as yours. Just because stormtop made that and emailed that before he was banned, that does not make that yours to take credit for.

You tried pulling that stunt last year to.

Try again

Back off, GerlindeEspinoza. I mean BullShoarsTN. I mean ITCZMike. I mean capelookout. I mean BackwoodsTN.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
360. wunderkidcayman
2:45 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Good morning Skye. Good morning Tampa. And good morning to all the rest. Sunny in Port St. Lucie with some occasional clouds, but looks like we will be getting really wet later today or tonight and probably all day tomorrow. Thanks Tampa for the radar pics. Skye, LOVE the jack-o-lantern!
Does Rina have any kind of chance to reform if she continues to linger in the Carrib? Looks like lots of moisture down there. Status of MJO? Water temps? Thanks.

I say yes Rina could reform when its back in the caribbean. MJO+ATLANTIC=DOWNWARD but that don't mean that storm can't develop/or redevelop in downward phase. SST are still high, TCHP are still high, 26.C Isotherm still high, SSA are high in most areas in the NW Carib
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11057
359. dabirds
2:41 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting BackwoodsTN:

Troll Alert: JFVisOmnipotent and dabirds.


Not really, tired of hearing no one watching what is one of the best series in a long time is all. Long time lurker who finally signed in. Don't get JFV ref @ all, never wished a storm on anyone! Beautiful day in C IL & StL, going to game tonight-50s into 40s at game time. Hope you all enjoy on TV.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 722
357. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:39 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31468
356. 7544
2:36 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
i dont know about the a swril but that blob aka rina is moving nne and heading right over the southern part of fla. so looks like a wet 24 hours in store imo the blob beat the front lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
355. CitikatzSouthFL
2:33 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Good morning Skye. Good morning Tampa. And good morning to all the rest. Sunny in Port St. Lucie with some occasional clouds, but looks like we will be getting really wet later today or tonight and probably all day tomorrow. Thanks Tampa for the radar pics. Skye, LOVE the jack-o-lantern!
Does Rina have any kind of chance to reform if she continues to linger in the Carrib? Looks like lots of moisture down there. Status of MJO? Water temps? Thanks.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 440
354. TampaSpin
2:32 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:


I liked my version better..



Thats a beauty....YOU WIN!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
353. Skyepony (Mod)
2:26 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

LOL, nice.


Dr Masters wu-mailed me after, said he used in his presentation at NHC..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37359
352. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:


I liked my version better..


LOL, nice.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31468
351. Skyepony (Mod)
2:20 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What we were watching a year ago today:



I liked my version better..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37359
350. hurricanealley
2:19 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:



You really need to change your Avatar!....LMAO


Why?
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
349. Skyepony (Mod)
2:17 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting stillwaiting:
morning ts and sky!!!!,gloomy dayy here in swfl


Good morning to you & the rest. The convection is boiling pretty far from the surface spin. The more that maintains the more rain for us. If Hwrf materializes & the Rina goes to Cuba we might really get some good rain.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37359
348. TampaSpin
2:14 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting hurricanealley:


Not sure if the conditions are set for tornadoes over South Florida.



You really need to change your Avatar!....LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
347. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:13 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
What we were watching a year ago today:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31468
346. MahFL
2:11 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Front heading for NE FL.

Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3298
345. TampaSpin
2:10 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting stillwaiting:
morning ts and sky!!!!,gloomy dayy here in swfl


HEY Still.....got at least 1 more gloomer coming maybe even 2......but sunny days a coming.....:)
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
344. Skyepony (Mod)
2:09 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Taz~ That's from earlier. She's back off land again. NE tip of Yucatan (RGB LOOP).
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37359
343. MahFL
2:08 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting congaline:
It looks to me like Rina has missed her turn and is half-way to Fl already, expect to see some track changes soon from NHC. On Satellite she also appears to be re-organizing. Any one want to help me understand this better?!


What you are no doubt looking at is the thunderstorm tops being sheared off to the NE by the wind. The low level center is still near the Yucatan.



Note the blob to the NE, thats the sheared mid level circulation, being blown off towards S FL.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3298
342. stillwaiting
2:06 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
morning ts and sky!!!!,gloomy dayy here in swfl
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
341. Skyepony (Mod)
2:03 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Looks like the good part of Rina is coming (the rain). Orlando south should get more rain than north. Maybe some thunderstorms. Not expecting a widespread severe weather event.

Looking in on the invest in the Arabian sea..


Latest loop here..

Pretty unorganized. Pretty high PWat..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37359
340. TampaSpin
2:02 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
339. Tazmanian
2:02 PM GMT on October 28, 2011


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2011 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 21:18:50 N Lon : 86:54:43 W


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114732
338. TampaSpin
1:59 PM GMT on October 28, 2011


Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
337. TampaSpin
1:58 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
336. TampaSpin
1:57 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
335. TampaSpin
1:55 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
334. TampaSpin
1:54 PM GMT on October 28, 2011


LET'er Snow......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
333. islander101010
1:52 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
rina has a similiar look like no name 2
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4335
332. TampaSpin
1:50 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting stillwaiting:
interesting the low that is the seed for our ne snowstorm aopears to be taking shape south of la in the gom,gonna be a wet 24hrs for fl imo


Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
331. TampaSpin
1:47 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
There are some on here i just hit the little -(minus) button no matter what they say.....GOOD MORNING
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
330. stillwaiting
1:45 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
interesting the low that is the seed for our ne snowstorm aopears to be taking shape south of la in the gom,gonna be a wet 24hrs for fl imo
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
329. masonsnana
1:44 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting congaline:
It looks to me like Rina has missed her turn and is half-way to Fl already, expect to see some track changes soon from NHC. On Satellite she also appears to be re-organizing. Any one want to help me understand this better?!
Thinking the same thing but to afraid to ask! lol Maybe to much shear for development?
Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 663
328. congaline
1:43 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


What you're seeing is the moisture from Rina. Rina's LLC (low level center) is currently very near the NE tip of the Yucatan.


OK. SFLCAT! Thanks for the info., I'll look again.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
327. Sfloridacat5
1:38 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting congaline:
It looks to me like Rina has missed her turn and is half-way to Fl already, expect to see some track changes soon from NHC. On Satellite she also appears to be re-organizing. Any one want to help me understand this better?!


What you're seeing is the moisture from Rina. Rina's LLC (low level center) is currently very near the NE tip of the Yucatan. If you check the visibile sat. you'll see the LLC swirling over the N.E. tip (near 21.5N and 87W) of the Yucatan without any convection.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6114
326. congaline
1:36 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
It looks to me like Rina has missed her turn and is half-way to Fl already, expect to see some track changes soon from NHC. On Satellite she also appears to be re-organizing. Any one want to help me understand this better?!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
325. Dragod66
1:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
I know this is a little off topic but i want to know what is the chances of Nova Scotia seeing a substantial snowfall this sunday? I see just outside New York is supposed to get around 8 inches saturday night.
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 604
324. Sfloridacat5
1:32 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting eddye:
with all that red they should put up a tornado warning


Could definitely see some heavy rain and associated thunderstorms later today going into tomorrow.

Here's the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD
ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA. HERE...LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL
ACTIVATE STORMS WITH MAINLY JUST A RAIN THREAT. WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL
VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL EXIST...OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED
WITH TROPICAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF SEVERE.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6114
323. hurricanealley
1:29 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting eddye:
with all that red they should put up a tornado warning


Not sure if the conditions are set for tornadoes over South Florida.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
322. eddye
1:25 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
with all that red they should put up a tornado warning
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
321. Neapolitan
1:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting capelookout:

You should know better than to just ignore and not even think or comment on anyone of whom you believe is trying to stir things up.

See: irony ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
320. hurricanealley
1:23 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting eddye:
hurricane alley how about comment 222


Updated. Very disorganize if you ask me.

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
319. eddye
1:19 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
hurricane alley how about comment 222
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
318. hurricanealley
1:17 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting eddye:
look at comment 212 that wat it looks like right know


That's Ex-97L.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
316. WoodyFL
1:13 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
315. hurricanealley
1:13 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

No, it wasn't directed at you.


My apologies then.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
313. eddye
1:11 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
look at comment 212 that wat it looks like right know
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
312. Neapolitan
1:11 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting hurricanealley:


I hope you are not directing that first sentence to me. I ain't no troll... I'm just a weather enthusiast with a sense of humor (in which a good majority lack of).

No, it wasn't directed at you.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
311. hurricanealley
1:10 PM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting eddye:
hurricane warning south florida later tonight


Nah!
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.