Tropical Storm Rina continues to deteriorate; close to landfall in Mexico

By: Angela Fritz , 9:19 PM GMT on October 27, 2011

Share this Blog
15
+

Tropical Storm Rina has taken a beating in the past 48 hours. Between a mass of dry air to its west and strong southerly wind shear, Rina has not been able to overcome its environment. At 5pm EDT, Rina had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving north at 7 mph. At 3:30pm EDT, Rina was located about 50 miles south of Cozumel. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found surface wind speeds of around 55 mph (moderate tropical storm-strength) on the north side of the storm and central pressure of 993 mb and rising. Rina's thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly since yesterday. The storm is battling a whopping 30 knots of wind shear, and its surface center is becoming exposed again this evening, which is apparent on satellite.

Wind speed on Cozumel is a breezy 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The island has received 0.28 inches of rain so far today, and it doesn't look like it's going to get much more than that. At Cancun, winds are blowing at 8 mph with gusts up to 15 mph and wave height on the beach is pretty low.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery shows Rina's thunderstorm activity has all but disappeared, and the surface center is exposed, likely due to the high wind shear from the south. Source: NOAA.


Forecast for Tropical Storm Rina
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to make landfall near Cozumel later this evening as a tropical storm. Over the next 48 hours, Rina is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as a cold front nudges it back into the Caribbean (Figure 2). The GFS is forecasting Rina to re-intensify to around 55 mph early next week. The ECMWF was predicting a similar event in this morning's forecast but has since backed off, and the HWRF agrees. The most likely scenario is that Rina's remnants will linger in the western Caribbean through the beginning of next week before finally dissolving into the surrounding environment.



Figure 2. Surface forecast for Saturday morning from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. A cold front dipping south into the Caribbean will be responsible for kicking Rina back into the Caribbean.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 61 - 11

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

This is what they are monitoring, FWIW:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL
MEXICO.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE BEING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 825 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Pre 98L is 10%
Ex 97L is 10%
Sean and Tammy possible
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
49 sar2401 "What happened to all the posts from earlier today? Are they all removed when a blog update is made?"

The old blogs&comments are still available. But the new blog gets a new entrynum= in its address.
And the old blog-with-comments gets put into the WUnderground Archive. Just click on one of the 'ViewComments'links there to see the accompanying comments.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
700 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...RINA VERY NEAR COZUMEL...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 87.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting onthescene:
Well Rina has definitely arrived into Playa del Carmen now, it's been raining solid for around an hour. And the sky has just gone the most peculiar shade of yellow outside. Not sure if that's anything to do with it being sunset time right now but wow?!


It's been raining here on Cozumel a little longer. I almost flooded a couple of weeks with the last system that sat on us for 4 or 5 days. I'm hoping that Rina just rolls on through with minimal rain...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

95 mph? You mean 90 mph?


I thought 80kts was 95mph? I might be a bit confused though...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
TCR for Beatriz came out within the last few hours.

Link

95mph now, still 977mb. 1 direct deaths, 3 indirect.

95 mph? You mean 90 mph?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
TCR for Beatriz came out within the last few hours.

Link

95mph now, still 977mb. 1 direct death, 3 indirect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


Notice a nice little deep convection burst near the COC of X97L.. This may surprise some tonight, perhaps a re-activation (again) later on.


RE: Earlier post. Nah, I was not trying to give you a hard time. I like that you stick to your guns and go out on a limb. Most around here, even those considered most knowledgeable, just wait for the models and play it safe by going with the models. So easy to look at models and either throw out outliers or scan the various steering mechanisms and adopt model that seems to be consistent with developing weather patterns. You at least are forward looking and try to formulate predictions perhaps even ahead of the models. Accordingly, you will be wrong a higher percentage of time than those that wait for the models or sure things because they are afraid being wrong will lead to less credibility. Truth is, everyone, and I mean everyone on here has consistently blown forecast all year on this year's storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What happened to all the posts from earlier today? Are they all removed when a blog update is made?

Reeedzone, I know you've been hoping that Rina/97L were going to become something over the past week, but I think it's time to give up on them now. The satellite and radar pics look like typical disorganized areas of tropical thunderstorms. With the dry air and shear in the GOM, I don't think either of them are going anywhere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting E46Pilot:
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.
I called it a dog when it was still a puppy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting onthescene:
Well Rina has definitely arrived into Playa del Carmen now, it's been raining solid for around an hour. And the sky has just gone the most peculiar shade of yellow outside. Not sure if that's anything to do with it being sunset time right now but wow?!

I bet you guys are happy it is 45 kt. (55 mph) weaker than what it was expected to be (Category 3 hurricane).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Well Rina has definitely arrived into Playa del Carmen now, it's been raining solid for around an hour. And the sky has just gone the most peculiar shade of yellow outside. Not sure if that's anything to do with it being sunset time right now but wow?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
45. Skyepony (Mod)
AF307 has descended into Rina..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 210 Comments: 39137
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
by near normal u mean named storms or hurricanes? if we dont get el nino we will see at least 13 storms and if vertical instability is average it would be quite a season

I was talking about Vertical Instability.

Quoting wunderweatherman123:
by near normal u mean named storms or hurricanes? if we dont get el nino we will see at least 13 storms and if vertical instability is average it would be quite a season

We'll probably see another above-average to hyperactive hurricane season given the setup.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
X97L may not hit land, could turn NW, a similar track of Rina.. What could happen is that Rinas remnants pulls southward then emerges with the disturbance, potentially becoming Sean. It's possible even though it's not currently forecast to happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close, although not particularly finished yet, I do believe I will start doing blog entries on the season as a whole, including each individual storm from Arlene to Rina.

One major factor to take into consideration for the low amount of hurricanes and major hurricanes is likely Vertical Instability. The lack of instability has demoted shower and thunderstorm activity, and promoted dry air. In addition, wind shear has been a little on the high side this season, and a lot of the storms have formed at a high-latitude, not allowing for much strengthening.

I do not believe Vertical Instability stays low for prolonged periods of time however. For this reason, its pretty safe to say it will be near normal to above normal for next season. We will just have to see.
by near normal u mean named storms or hurricanes? if we dont get el nino we will see at least 13 storms and if vertical instability is average it would be quite a season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok. Is it safe for me to *poof* Rina yet?

I don't want to be too early here...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It also says in the next 48 hours. Weather is constantly changing and can surprise you .


Well, the former 97L doesn't have 48 hours before it hits land, so in that sense they're right. There could always be some breakoff element of it that develops, and then they can be right twice!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
25 E46Pilot "Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman."
30 Chucktown "Its not as much fun as you think!!

Sure it is. Ya can make wild guesses about the weather and be adored by the public for the 1outta100 times ya beat the NWS.
And the 99times ya get beat by the NWS will be forgotten the way Vegas got built : billions of $$$ spent on construction&operation of casinos, all funded by folks who "broke even" or "came out a little ahead".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2" of snow on ground at Binghamton NWS - more to come for the northeast on Saturday

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close, although not particularly finished yet, I do believe I will start doing blog entries on the season as a whole, including each individual storm from Arlene to Rina.

One major factor to take into consideration for the low amount of hurricanes and major hurricanes is likely Vertical Instability. The lack of instability has demoted shower and thunderstorm activity, and promoted dry air. In addition, wind shear has been a little on the high side this season, and a lot of the storms have formed at a high-latitude, not allowing for much strengthening.

I do not believe Vertical Instability stays low for prolonged periods of time however. For this reason, its pretty safe to say it will be near normal to above normal for next season. We will just have to see.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
.."I wanna be a NHC forecaster"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting E46Pilot:
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.



plzs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting divingpyrate:
Not sure if people read the NHC but they say near 0% on this.
It also says in the next 48 hours. Weather is constantly changing and can surprise you .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting E46Pilot:
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.


Its not as much fun as you think !!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Major snow event for the northeast this weekend!

If anyone is interested in reading.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting E46Pilot:
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.


Did you predict for it to become a near-major hurricane too??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting E46Pilot:
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.


Poster on previous blog showed images of the rise and fall of Rina. Glad she got all pretty and then fell apart before doing much damage. She was good to look at there for a while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting violet312s:
Local NC met (WRAL) is ripping the NHC on not being able to forecast intensity this year. Just showed the progression of Rina as a classic example of what has happened a lot this season.


Well, Rina was a baby of a storm. So intensity is going to bounce all over the place, I mean last evening it looked like a supercell, just a strong middle with nothing else.

IMO NHC overstates on the way up and understates on the way down. I think there's a method to that madness.

I feel like Rina's intensity forecasts on the way down have a bit of lag in them. This feels like yesterday's forecast today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2 days ago I said, in 2 days rina will be nearly gone, torn apart by the wind shear that was evident on the sat pics. Maybe it's time they put me on the air at the local station. I've always wanted to be a weatherman.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting divingpyrate:
Not sure if people read the NHC but they say near 0% on this.




.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
So that means a )% chance of moisture return for Florida after Saturday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Local NC met (WRAL) is ripping the NHC on not being able to forecast intensity this year. Just showed the progression of Rina as a classic example of what has happened a lot this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
A time-lapse taken from the front of the International Space Station as it orbits our planet at night. This movie begins over the Pacific Ocean and continues over North and South America before entering daylight near Antarctica.

Visible cities, countries and landmarks include (in order) Vancouver Island, Victoria, Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, San Fransisco, Los Angeles. Phoenix. Multiple cities in Texas, New Mexico and Mexico. Mexico City, the Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Lightning in the Pacific Ocean, Guatemala, Panama, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, and the Amazon.

Also visible is the earths ionosphere (thin yellow line) and the stars of our galaxy. Raw data was downloaded from;

. I love the videos pat, and the gfs,nam,and ecmwf are predicting a snow storm but I'm not sure if it is considered a noreaster for NY city and all areas north and west even staten island where I live what are the chances of this happening
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12 reedzone "X 97L looks like a fully developed Invest that could make TD status the next day... Perhaps the remnants of Rina will merge into the disturbance and potentially develop Sean."


Would certainly be interesting if Rina's remnant spin were to meet up with ex97L's remnant convection at the HotSpot west of GrandCayman.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WoodyFL:
Looks like a little split coming with Rina. Many times a chunk of energy gets thrown off when these systems break up. Looks like a bit of energy to the North of the Western tip of Cuba wants to flare-up a little.
And yes, 97L looks better. Nothing is calling for it to develop right now, but there is a lot of convection with it.



Notice a nice little deep convection burst near the COC of X97L.. This may surprise some tonight, perhaps a re-activation (again) later on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another thing to keep in mind with 97, if you put center fix at 13/80, it'll be on land in under a day at present direction and speed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4 12george1 "Has Rina made landfall yet?"

Probably not. At the speed&direction it was traveling, landfall would still be 5to6hours away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you Angela.
I like your writing in the last sentence. "Dissolving into the surrounding environment". .....that's a great way of putting it.
.
Shows us how 2 storms, Wilma and Rina, can have wildly different results. I wish I had a list of all the cyclones that dissolved, or broke up into an open wave, or got decapitated, etc.
.
It would be nice to have as a counter-point to the analog comparisons we see that looks to compare to deadly or powerful storms like Katrina, Wilma, etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like a little split coming with Rina. Many times a chunk of energy gets thrown off when these systems break up. Looks like a bit of energy to the North of the Western tip of Cuba wants to flare-up a little.
And yes, 97L looks better. Nothing is calling for it to develop right now, but there is a lot of convection with it.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601


looks like another round of rain headed our way from ex97L, gettin too much of a good thing now! Wonder if ex97L will be reactivated , looking rather impressive this evening!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not sure if people read the NHC but they say near 0% on this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
X 97L looks like a fully developed Invest that could make TD status the next day... Perhaps the remnants of Rina will merge into the disturbance and potentially develop Sean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PART OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OVERNIGHT AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO
8 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TIDAL LAKES...SOUNDS...AND
GULF COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THESE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 61 - 11

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
30 °F
Overcast