Tropical Storm Rina continues to deteriorate; close to landfall in Mexico

By: Angela Fritz , 9:19 PM GMT on October 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Rina has taken a beating in the past 48 hours. Between a mass of dry air to its west and strong southerly wind shear, Rina has not been able to overcome its environment. At 5pm EDT, Rina had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving north at 7 mph. At 3:30pm EDT, Rina was located about 50 miles south of Cozumel. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found surface wind speeds of around 55 mph (moderate tropical storm-strength) on the north side of the storm and central pressure of 993 mb and rising. Rina's thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly since yesterday. The storm is battling a whopping 30 knots of wind shear, and its surface center is becoming exposed again this evening, which is apparent on satellite.

Wind speed on Cozumel is a breezy 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The island has received 0.28 inches of rain so far today, and it doesn't look like it's going to get much more than that. At Cancun, winds are blowing at 8 mph with gusts up to 15 mph and wave height on the beach is pretty low.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery shows Rina's thunderstorm activity has all but disappeared, and the surface center is exposed, likely due to the high wind shear from the south. Source: NOAA.


Forecast for Tropical Storm Rina
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to make landfall near Cozumel later this evening as a tropical storm. Over the next 48 hours, Rina is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as a cold front nudges it back into the Caribbean (Figure 2). The GFS is forecasting Rina to re-intensify to around 55 mph early next week. The ECMWF was predicting a similar event in this morning's forecast but has since backed off, and the HWRF agrees. The most likely scenario is that Rina's remnants will linger in the western Caribbean through the beginning of next week before finally dissolving into the surrounding environment.



Figure 2. Surface forecast for Saturday morning from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. A cold front dipping south into the Caribbean will be responsible for kicking Rina back into the Caribbean.

Angela

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111. DDR
Do the Cayman islands have good infrastructure,specifically drainage?
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1699
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

According to...?


Look here, Interesting!!!!


Click image for loop.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the Atlantic ACE list from Wiki with the 21z numbers for Rina included.

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Best Track 2.3125
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 24.8375
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
14L (Maria) Operational 8.6700
15L (Nate) Operational 3.8325
16L (Ophelia) Operational 18.3550
17L (Philippe) Operational 14.8025
18L (Rina) Operational 8.6175
Total 115.3025



Current ACE numbers are Rina = 8.7975
North Atlantic = 119.632

from here
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
hey stormpetrol if 97L develops it will track simmilar to Rena but further E than rena this will cause a bigger threat to us what ya think
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
107. DDR
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know you have had a lot but for us it has just been too much at once. You've had enough to fill a small swimming pool LOL.

LOL yes,this rain has been a pain in the back,almost got stuck by lightning 2 days in a row this week.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1699
Looks like us here in the Cayman Islands are soon to become the meat in the sandwich... interesting days ahead it would seem!
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Quoting DDR:
You all think that rain in the caymans is plenty,its been raining almost everyday for 1 1/2 years here thanks to la nina.I've got around 240 inches of rain since last May.
I know you have had a lot but for us it has just been too much at once. You've had enough to fill a small swimming pool LOL.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8360
O_O Rina blew up.
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Quoting CapeCoralx3:
The winds are picking up here on cozumel. The power keeps going out for a min or two. I have a standby generator that has kicked on twice.
Stay safe.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8360
101. DDR
You all think that rain in the caymans is plenty,its been raining almost everyday for 1 1/2 years here thanks to la nina.I've got around 240 inches of rain since last May.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1699
The winds are picking up here on cozumel. The power keeps going out for a min or two. I have a standby generator that has kicked on twice.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I see that 97L is upped to 10% good call
Don't get too excited yet . J/K
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8360
I see that 97L is upped to 10% good call
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
It is freaking cold right now, though. Who knows, maybe this will prep the ground for Saturday and it will stick. Damn weather. :D

Going on a cruise and my first concern was Rina getting grabbed and quickly shooting across Florida and running the gap between US and Bermuda, thus cutting off all the ports (out of Baltimore)... that isn't going to happen, so instead I'll probably get the October equivilant of a blizzard for the ride down to Baltimore on Saturday. lol.
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Lets hope no more develop, that is to close to people that don't need the pain
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I'm very excited about the possibility for snow around the DC area in October. The possibility exists for an inch or two of snow in my area and I'm psyched up for it!!
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Yep my brother who lives in Prospect just called me to find out what kind weather we have here in South Sound,he is experiencing rain & high winds, but I have shutters on the East side of my house up, so I'll have to go outside and check, I don't like this ex97L, especially if it is forecast to remain almost stationary!


Im in Spotts moderate rain now but your right the island has had quite a soaking the last week or so we dont really need any more. I'm sure low lying areas could flood quite easily now as the ground is saturated. But looks like we will get more with this system just sitting there also when whatever is left of rina comes back south it may enhance rainfall even more in the area we'll have to wait and see!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

According to...?



Yeah, I'm not buying that. It could definitely snow but I'd be shocked if it gets cold enough to turn into the biggest "anything".

At least around here. The hilly areas up NW might get a surprise.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Rainy and very windy in East End too. Lots of lightning again.


This is just really going on too long and looks like it could last nearly another week, I could scream for people in flood prone areas!
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Yep my brother who lives in Prospect just called me to find out what kind weather we have here in South Sound,he is experiencing rain & high winds, but I have shutters on the East side of my house up, so I'll have to go outside and check, I don't like this ex97L, especially if it is forecast to remain almost stationary!
Rainy and very windy in East End too. Lots of lightning again.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8360
Looks like Rina as commenced that NNE turn according to the latest HH fix!
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No change in strength or pressure according to ATCF --

AL, 18, 2011102800, , BEST, 0, 202N, 872W, 50, 996, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RINA, D,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
In Cancún there is only ver y mild rain and the Wind is about 20mph may be latee wil jet some more looks like Rita didnt like cancun
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
raining heavy in grand cayman right now just had 30 mph gusts


Yep my brother who lives in Prospect just called me to find out what kind weather we have here in South Sound,he is experiencing rain & high winds, but I have shutters on the East side of my house up, so I'll have to go outside and check, I don't like this ex97L, especially if it is forecast to remain almost stationary!
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Quoting Speeky:
NYC is expecting record snowfall for the month of October on Saturday. That's amazing.

According to...?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
raining heavy in grand cayman right now just had 30 mph gusts
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NYC is expecting record snowfall for the month of October on Saturday. That's amazing.
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Here is the Atlantic ACE list from Wiki with the 21z numbers for Rina included.

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Best Track 2.3125
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 24.8375
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
14L (Maria) Operational 8.6700
15L (Nate) Operational 3.8325
16L (Ophelia) Operational 18.3550
17L (Philippe) Operational 14.8025
18L (Rina) Operational 8.6175
Total 115.3025


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Quoting njdevil:
That Cape Verde one is pretty junior sized. lol.

Seems like they relocated ex97 and now they're saying it's going to park where it is. Well, that increases the chances a bit.


We don't need it parked where it is, we are saturated with rain here in the Caymans :(
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Hmmm. The number I have is 115.19, with Rina in sixth place (and she'll be in fifth place at the 11PM TWO).
Go figure Wiki is behind :-P What site do you get your figures from?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Btw ACE is up to 109 for the season with Rina in 9th place.


Rina is in 6th place. If she can hang on till 11 p.m. she'll be in 5th place.

Seasonal ACE is 115.3025 on the high side of normal.

I will defer to Neapolitan for the seasonal total.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Btw ACE is up to 109 for the season with Rina in 9th place.

Hmmm. The number I have is 115.19, with Rina in sixth place (and she'll be in fifth place at the 11PM TWO).
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
Quoting Neapolitan:

In that image, AOI #2 became Sheri on the 28th, and AOI #3 became Tomas on the 29th.

Yes, and that first AOI was likely an unnamed tropical storm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Btw ACE is up to 109 for the season with Rina currently in 9th place with an ACE of 2.04.
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BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE BEING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

This is EXACTLY what I wanted to see, thank you NHC!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

In that image, AOI #2 became Sheri on the 28th, and AOI #3 became Tomas on the 29th.

Shary, not Sheri.
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That Cape Verde one is pretty junior sized. lol.

Seems like they relocated ex97 and now they're saying it's going to park where it is. Well, that increases the chances a bit.
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Alright I want to get everybody's opinion.

What is most likely to occur for the remainder of the 2011 season?

A. One more Hurricane
B. One more Hurricane which becomes a Major Hurricane
C. 4 Tropical Storms
D. No more storms
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is what we were looking at this time last season:


In that image, AOI #2 became Sheri Shary on the 28th, and AOI #3 became Tomas on the 29th.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 23:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 23:39:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°07'N 87°11'W (20.1167N 87.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 31 miles (50 km) to the SSW (209°) from Cozumel, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,402m (4,600ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 156° at 59kts (From the SSE at ~ 67.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:34:00Z

Looks can be deceiving, looks like Rina could be a lil stronger than earlier!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe this satellite image will help?



Thanks, sorry I just lurk here and don't know many sites to get good data/images etc.
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This is what we were looking at this time last season:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Quoting CapeCoralx3:
Question for you weather gurus. Where is the heavy thunderstorm activity located on Rina? Just wondering how much rain the island will get tonight.

Maybe this satellite image will help?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Question for you weather gurus. Where is the heavy thunderstorm activity located on Rina? Just wondering how much rain the island will get tonight.
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Its late October for crying out loud!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is what they are monitoring, FWIW:



Didn't Jose look similar to that? LOL
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lol



i think we had Sean and Tammy we sould be on W right now
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.