Tropical Storm Rina continues to deteriorate; close to landfall in Mexico

By: Angela Fritz , 9:19 PM GMT on October 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Rina has taken a beating in the past 48 hours. Between a mass of dry air to its west and strong southerly wind shear, Rina has not been able to overcome its environment. At 5pm EDT, Rina had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving north at 7 mph. At 3:30pm EDT, Rina was located about 50 miles south of Cozumel. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found surface wind speeds of around 55 mph (moderate tropical storm-strength) on the north side of the storm and central pressure of 993 mb and rising. Rina's thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly since yesterday. The storm is battling a whopping 30 knots of wind shear, and its surface center is becoming exposed again this evening, which is apparent on satellite.

Wind speed on Cozumel is a breezy 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The island has received 0.28 inches of rain so far today, and it doesn't look like it's going to get much more than that. At Cancun, winds are blowing at 8 mph with gusts up to 15 mph and wave height on the beach is pretty low.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery shows Rina's thunderstorm activity has all but disappeared, and the surface center is exposed, likely due to the high wind shear from the south. Source: NOAA.


Forecast for Tropical Storm Rina
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to make landfall near Cozumel later this evening as a tropical storm. Over the next 48 hours, Rina is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as a cold front nudges it back into the Caribbean (Figure 2). The GFS is forecasting Rina to re-intensify to around 55 mph early next week. The ECMWF was predicting a similar event in this morning's forecast but has since backed off, and the HWRF agrees. The most likely scenario is that Rina's remnants will linger in the western Caribbean through the beginning of next week before finally dissolving into the surrounding environment.



Figure 2. Surface forecast for Saturday morning from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. A cold front dipping south into the Caribbean will be responsible for kicking Rina back into the Caribbean.

Angela

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Looks like Rina is firing up yet again Woody.
Not seeing what will turn her back south into the Caribbean, nor will I tonight as I am done for the day. goodnight.
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That front better get here soon to turn her back South.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Avila is crazy, lol.


TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

RINA HAS BECOME A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN
DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AGO...AND I WAS TEMPTED TO
LOWER THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
CHECKING THE CYCLONE MEASURED SEVERAL FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WHICH
SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH
LAND AS WELL. ON THIS BASIS...RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND
THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EARLY SATURDAY IF NOT SOONER. RINA WILL LIKELY BECOME A
MEANDERING REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION.

FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
SOUTHWARD BACK TO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE IT ALL BEGAN.
MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS PREFER THIS SOLUTION. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO
THIS...IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 20.5N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 21.5N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0000Z 21.5N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/1200Z 21.0N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 20.0N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z 19.5N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 18.0N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...CENTER OF RINA PASSING JUST WEST OF COZUMEL...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 87.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
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Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting stormpetrol:


Its cool :), he's a good guy though, just extra fascinated by the weather and hurricanes!


I don't mind anyone wishcasting. Heck, I'm one of the biggest wishcasters here. However storms go where they want to go and if it is heading away from me it is what it is and my comments of wishcasting won't change it's path.

Btw, I really hoped that Rina would come my way ( not as a major) but I knew from day one there was no chance.

Also, we should be watching ex 97L over the next several days.
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Quoting jrweatherman:


I was a actually joking or pretty much saying the opposite. For the last week he would insist over and over and over that Rina was going East towards him when it continued west of north the entire time.

hey jrweatherman its moving Eward-NNEward now don't you dare say that ain't true cause that is what its doing lol

Quoting stormpetrol:


Well I wouldn't bet a nickel against a bucket of cow manure on it, but high pressure should keep it west of us for a few days, but we are already experiencing stormy conditions and as they " a rose by any other name is still a rose"


well stormpetrol looking at the steering maps says WNW for now and with Rena and the Front will change track to NW-NNW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11121
Quoting sar2401:


Looks like the same kind of nocturnal thunderstorms that blew up yesterday before Rina did a swan dive today.


Looks like she's in dissipate-mode.
On that note, I'm catching some shut-eye.
Goodnight and thank God she's almost gone.
Rina was a real threat a day ago.
Now she's just a pain in the A.
Goodnight Rina, goodbye,
I'll see you in my dreams.
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She's not going down without a fight.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


That's not encouraging , maybe for ex 97, but not for us!
I agree.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

The difference is roughly 45 to 50 (or so) TWOs where named storms were TDs, and it's easy to get there. For instance, Ophelia alone had at least 13 or 14 such TWOs.


That makes sense.

Dr. Maue should make it very clear up front that he calculates ACE in this special way.
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Quoting sar2401:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Just want to say Grand Cayman has some of the best built buildings in the world, It is not on a continental shelf, the water around it is deep, we have no rivers or mountains and contrary to what some might think, even though some areas are prone to storm surge is probably one the safest places to be in a major hurricane! We had only only one death "directly" associated with Ivan and that was due to carelessness, though I hate to say it!

Indeed. They also have one of the best emergency managment agencies I've seen for such a small country. Their storm shelter system is well-developed and the people tend not argue when they're told to get in a shelter. :)


Tks , Obviously you either live here or have had experience with our what should I say " our way of preparing for such weather"
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Quoting petewxwatcher:


That's interesting. And a misleading way to calculate things.


I'm mildly surprised that tropical depressions would add 4 points of ACE.

Most you could get in six hours is 0.09, with some 0.0625 advisories thrown in.


The difference is roughly 45 to 50 (or so) TWOs where named storms were TDs, and it's easy to get there. For instance, Ophelia alone had at least 13 or 14 such TWOs.
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Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Since it's relatively quiet tonight, I think it is a good time to show a composite image of this years most impressive storm (imho).



Yasi's minimum central pressure of 929mb is the 3rd lowest this year, tied with Dora and behind Songda and Nanmandol.

Yasi's maximum 1-min windspeed of 155mph is the 2nd highest recorded this year, tied with Dora and Nanmandol and closely following behind Songda and Muifa.
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I'm not that big a fan of ACE, honestly. I think a summation of the IKE (integrated kinetic energy) values for each 6 hour period would be better than ACE.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Anticyclone back over X97L.


That's not encouraging , maybe for ex 97, but not for us!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Dr. Maue takes the unorthodox approach of including ACE for tropical depressions, as well as that for tropical storms and hurricanes.


That's interesting. And a misleading way to calculate things.


I'm mildly surprised that tropical depressions would add 4 points of ACE.

Most you could get in six hours is 0.09, with some 0.0625 advisories thrown in.

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Quoting Neapolitan:

Dr. Maue takes the unorthodox approach of including ACE for tropical depressions, as well as that for tropical storms and hurricanes.


What about subtropical storms? I realize they aren't typically included as ACE contributors.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Y'all, see that Rina, although classified as a tropical storm, is still packing a punch this evening.
LinkWvLoop


Looks like the same kind of nocturnal thunderstorms that blew up yesterday before Rina did a swan dive today.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13254



Anticyclone back over X97L.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Current ACE numbers are Rina = 8.7975
North Atlantic = 119.632

from here

Dr. Maue takes the unorthodox approach of including ACE for tropical depressions, as well as that for tropical storms and hurricanes. (From http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/ba ckground_information.shtml: "The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm strength.")
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Quoting jrweatherman:


I was a actually joking or pretty much saying the opposite. For the last week he would insist over and over and over that Rina was going East towards him when it continued west of north the entire time.


Its cool :), he's a good guy though, just extra fascinated by the weather and hurricanes!
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Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting Chicklit:
I'm sorry this is goofy as heck.

...cannot believe it's for real.


Practically knocked me off my feet earlier , LOL!!
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Quoting Chicklit:
I'm sorry this is goofy as heck.

...cannot believe it's for real.


Gordon in 1994 did a pretty good treble clef.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Well I wouldn't bet a nickel against a bucket of cow manure on it, but high pressure should keep it west of us for a few days, but we are already experiencing stormy conditions and as they " a rose by any other name is still a rose"


I was a actually joking or pretty much saying the opposite. For the last week he would insist over and over and over that Rina was going East towards him when it continued west of north the entire time.
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I'm sorry this is goofy as heck.

...cannot believe it's for real.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Just want to say Grand Cayman has some of the best built buildings in the world, It is not on a continental shelf, the water around it is deep, we have no rivers or mountains and contrary to what some might think, even though some areas are prone to storm surge is probably one the safest places to be in a major hurricane! We had only only one death "directly" associated with Ivan and that was due to carelessness, though I hate to say it!

Indeed. They also have one of the best emergency managment agencies I've seen for such a small country. Their storm shelter system is well-developed and the people tend not argue when they're told to get in a shelter. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13254
Quoting stormpetrol:


Well I wouldn't bet a nickel against a bucket of cow manure on it, but high pressure should keep it west of us for a few days, but we are already experiencing stormy conditions and as they " a rose by any other name is still a rose"


Had 0.5" of an inch of rain here in savannah in just under 20 mins good thing ex 97 L isnt going to get anywhere "close" to us LOL
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Current ACE numbers are Rina = 8.7975
North Atlantic = 119.632

from here


I like Ryan Maue's stuff a lot. But I am really trying hard to figure out how he got an ACE total of over 119 for this season so far.

I've gone back, double checked, and accounted for the first tropical storm reports which have boosted some storms' intensity.

And I still get 115.3025
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Hi Y'all, see that Rina, although classified as a tropical storm, is still packing a punch this evening.
LinkWvLoop
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125. 7544
rina blowing up again and moving north she might have a good dmax is she about to pull a trick out of her hat lol could she be going further north of the next nhc plot ?interesting to see if she makes the loop back south
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6693
Quoting jrweatherman:


Absolutely no chance that ex 97L gets anywhere near The Caymans.


Well I wouldn't bet a nickel against a bucket of cow manure on it, but high pressure should keep it west of us for a few days, but we are already experiencing stormy conditions and as they " a rose by any other name is still a rose"
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Quoting aspectre:
49 sar2401 "What happened to all the posts from earlier today? Are they all removed when a blog update is made?"

The old blogs&comments are still available. But the new blog gets a new entrynum= in its address.
And the old blog-with-comments gets put into the WUnderground Archive. Just click on one of the 'ViewComments'links there to see the accompanying comments.


Thanks, aspectre, I assumed they went somewhere but I just didn't how to find them.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13254
Just want to say Grand Cayman has some of the best built buildings in the world, It is not on a continental shelf, the water around it is deep, we have no rivers or mountains and contrary to what some might think, even though some areas are prone to storm surge is probably one the safest places to be in a major hurricane! We had only only one death "directly" associated with Ivan and that was due to carelessness, though I hate to say it!
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Quoting njdevil:


Yeah, I'm not buying that. It could definitely snow but I'd be shocked if it gets cold enough to turn into the biggest "anything".

At least around here. The hilly areas up NW might get a surprise.


I'm in the Kingston area of the Mid Hudson Valley (90mile up the river from NYC). I was surprised that we actually saw some sleet here this afternoon, despite the fact that the NWS forecast mentioned a chance of a change over to snow/mix for a period... we usually get the skimpy end of their snow forecasts. But based on the current wording in the ALbany outlook Link it sounds like there is at least the potential for a decent early season event. Still I would be surprised if we saw over an inch this weekend. And I have a very hard time imagining the lower hudson valley seeing much of anything in the way of accumulating snow.

...just my personal experiences.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey stormpetrol if 97L develops it will track simmilar to Rena but further E than rena this will cause a bigger threat to us what ya think


To be honest my friend, I really don't know and don't even want to think of it!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey stormpetrol if 97L develops it will track simmilar to Rena but further E than rena this will cause a bigger threat to us what ya think


Absolutely no chance that ex 97L gets anywhere near The Caymans.
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Quoting jrweatherman:
112. I really don't get the purpose of your posts.
His posts are kind of like the xtrap which shows you where a storm has been and where it will be if it were to continue in a straight line from the current position.
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112. I really don't get the purpose of your posts.
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Quoting DDR:
Do the Cayman islands have good infrastructure,specifically drainage?
Drainage is okay as long as the Public Works Department keeps the drains cleared which they usually wait until the roads have several inches of water in them.
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Quoting DDR:

LOL yes,this rain has been a pain in the back,almost got stuck by lightning 2 days in a row this week.
The past few days here the lightning has been unbelievable. Be careful and stay inside when there is lightning.
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114. DDR
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


a little better than it used to be we are pretty flat here so most water runs off into the ocean but there are a few small communities that do start to flood after heavy rains like this although the government did improve drainage somewhat for these areas what happens is they still flood but they drain within a few days to a week now as opposed to weeks.

okay,we have horrible drainage here,countless governments and mps have come and gone without much drainage infrastructural improvements,almost everywhere on this island floods at some point in time.
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Quoting DDR:
Do the Cayman islands have good infrastructure,specifically drainage?


a little better than it used to be we are pretty flat here so most water runs off into the ocean but there are a few small communities that do start to flood after heavy rains like this although the government did improve drainage somewhat for these areas what happens is they still flood but they drain within a few days to a week now as opposed to weeks.
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18.9n87.0w, 19.5n87.1w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Rina's_12amGMT_ATCF
18.9n86.9w, 19.5n87.1w, 20.2n87.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting 27Oct_12amGMT and ending 28Oct_12amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormRina's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 28Oct_12amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 20.464n87.262w-PCM is the endpoint of the straightline projection connected to its nearest airport for the 27Oct_6pmGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbbell at 19.41n87.515w-TUY is the same for the 27Oct_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Rina's travel-speed was 8.2mph(13.1k/h) on a heading of 352.3degrees(N)
TS.Rina was headed toward passage over LaGloria,QuintanaRoo,Mexico ~1hour from now

Copy&paste cpe, isj, 19.41n87.515w-tuy, 20.464n87.262w-pcm, 18.3n86.1w-18.6n86.7w, 18.6n86.7w-18.9n86.9w, 18.9n86.9w-19.5n87.1w, 19.5n87.1w-20.2n87.2w, 19.5n87.1w-20.486n87.242w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 27Oct_6pmGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the previous projections.
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111. DDR
Do the Cayman islands have good infrastructure,specifically drainage?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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