Tropical Storm Rina continues to deteriorate; close to landfall in Mexico

By: Angela Fritz , 9:19 PM GMT on October 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Rina has taken a beating in the past 48 hours. Between a mass of dry air to its west and strong southerly wind shear, Rina has not been able to overcome its environment. At 5pm EDT, Rina had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving north at 7 mph. At 3:30pm EDT, Rina was located about 50 miles south of Cozumel. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found surface wind speeds of around 55 mph (moderate tropical storm-strength) on the north side of the storm and central pressure of 993 mb and rising. Rina's thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly since yesterday. The storm is battling a whopping 30 knots of wind shear, and its surface center is becoming exposed again this evening, which is apparent on satellite.

Wind speed on Cozumel is a breezy 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The island has received 0.28 inches of rain so far today, and it doesn't look like it's going to get much more than that. At Cancun, winds are blowing at 8 mph with gusts up to 15 mph and wave height on the beach is pretty low.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery shows Rina's thunderstorm activity has all but disappeared, and the surface center is exposed, likely due to the high wind shear from the south. Source: NOAA.


Forecast for Tropical Storm Rina
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to make landfall near Cozumel later this evening as a tropical storm. Over the next 48 hours, Rina is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as a cold front nudges it back into the Caribbean (Figure 2). The GFS is forecasting Rina to re-intensify to around 55 mph early next week. The ECMWF was predicting a similar event in this morning's forecast but has since backed off, and the HWRF agrees. The most likely scenario is that Rina's remnants will linger in the western Caribbean through the beginning of next week before finally dissolving into the surrounding environment.



Figure 2. Surface forecast for Saturday morning from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. A cold front dipping south into the Caribbean will be responsible for kicking Rina back into the Caribbean.

Angela

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211. 7544
the whole flow from the caribiean to the gom all is moving north and so is rina lol almost north of the channel now dont see anything moving south do you guys
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uh-oh.

During this unending World Series game I came across an error by Dr. Masters in a guest column on the BBC.

The guest column is here.

A quote from his guest column.

"If 2011 finishes without a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting the U.S.--which is likely--it will mark the first six-year period without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. since record keeping began in 1851. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma of October 2005."


However there was a 9 year gap between major hurricane landfalls from 1860 to 1869.

The 1851-1860 map.

And the 1861-1870 map.


Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8041
Quoting OminousCloud:
i meant Rinas track?

kinda not really
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9591
208. 7544
hmm looks like rina is pulling a fast one and dmax comingup could she surpise us and she still moving north at this hour taht front still is pretty far north of her could she be trying to beat that front and get further north in gom and then the front swiings her east all up to mother nature now imo and even the nhc cant predict whats going on as she blowing up agian all this is soooooooooo unexpected untill it actually happens stay tuned
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
If things were different 97 might have been a wilma storm

I think 97L will pull of a Paloma/Michelle type track
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9591
i meant Rinas track?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OminousCloud:
do you guys agree with the forecast track?

of what Rena or 97L
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9591
do you guys agree with the forecast track?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
97 is getting very organized look at the beautiful spital banding all the way around
Member Since: February 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294
If things were different 97 might have been a wilma storm
Member Since: February 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294
201. wunderkidcayman
4:08 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
97L according to vairous data is located near 15.2N 79.8W moving WNW-NW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9591
200. BaltimoreBrian
4:04 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Back in 1979 there was accumulating snow around DC on October 10th. I think it would be fun.

The temperature on my thermometer outside my window has fallen 6 degrees in the past 3 hours. Maybe the cold air will be a little deeper/colder than forecast. I hope so.

I like snow and I'll be missing the next two winters.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8041
199. bmrcatgrl
4:01 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Will any of the big eastern cities get accumulating snow? We have rain/snow forecast for Saturday.


Maybe on the grass. It's supposed to rain first, so accumulation will be very low.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 0
198. RukusBoondocks
4:00 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
we might wake up to a big fat rina
Member Since: February 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294
197. BaltimoreBrian
3:56 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
That system in the mid subtropical Atlantic is worth watching. There has been development out there in the late season in the past.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8041
196. JLPR2
3:51 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Second yellow circle, doesn't have a decent LLC.



It's just a messy mess.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
195. Saltydogbwi1
3:51 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting Supposetobefishin:


Fluked this shot from our balcony the other day - South side of Grand Cayman... (Spotts area for the locals!)



And this one last night about 10pm, from the same location but on the shoreline - waves from Rina rolling in...



very cool heres one of mine from a few months ago others can be found at the following link

img src="">

Link
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 330
194. BaltimoreBrian
3:51 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Will any of the big eastern cities get accumulating snow? We have rain/snow forecast for Saturday.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8041
193. BaltimoreBrian
3:51 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Rina is dying but hasn't keeled over yet.

Does the Mexican government issue tornado watches?
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8041
192. RukusBoondocks
3:48 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
97 might absorb the remnant low of Rina a nd become a huge powerful storm as it heads towards FL
Member Since: February 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294
190. RukusBoondocks
3:45 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
I think 97 will end up pushing all of that convection from Rina and all of that mess in the gulf right over FL.
Member Since: February 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294
189. Seastep
3:42 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Plenty of time, spathy, and still most likely nothing.

Bedtime.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
188. Tazmanian
3:40 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting spathy:


Thank you Taz.
I realize that would be a good source of information.
But I work 12 hrs/day and I have just now cleaned up after dinner and am going to sleep before another 12 hrs of work.

A qualified response would be most helpful ATM.


There are tens of thousands of dangling breakables that would need to be secured asap(my responsibility) if the winds are going to be over 30mph in SW Florida!

Help please.



like i said read back a few page if you need yoo find info that you need too no where not going too be here all the time too tell you things if if you want too no whats been going on read back a few and you find evere thing you need too no
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114062
186. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:36 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Invest 97L will need a percentage increase at the next Tropical Weather Outlook...Infrared imagery shows what looks like banding features located on the northeastern side of the system, with what looks like a low pressure area taking shape to the northeast of the Honduras/Nicaragua border.



And with that, I'm out, because I have to get up early, I'm 14, and my laptop is about to die, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
185. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:34 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
This may sound crazy, but I think that Rina is strengthening.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
184. BahaHurican
3:33 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Evening all.

Quoting MahFL:
Wow she blew up again, a bit of a surprise.
Not to me. Once this system got going, it's always been generating these remarkably high cold tops. I'm just glad for the southerly shear that's disrupting.

Quoting WoodyFL:
That was a strange way to end a forecast by Avila. What do you think he meant by it, Tropical???
It's prolly just Avila being Avila. But I think he's trying to say Rina's demise is not that unusual, including the loop de loop track.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
182. Tazmanian
3:29 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting spathy:
WT heck is Rina doing now?

I dont need a surprise when I wake up tomorrow!







read back a few page and you find out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114062
181. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:28 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
I'm ready for next hurricane season, lol.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
179. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:21 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:
97L seems to be giving it another try.



Did I kill the blog?

Yes..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
178. WoodyFL
3:21 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:
97L seems to be giving it another try.



Did I kill the blog?



No. LOL Just that a lot of the regulars who were on here late don't come on much anymore.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
177. Supposetobefishin
3:20 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The past few days here the lightning has been unbelievable. Be careful and stay inside when there is lightning.


Fluked this shot from our balcony the other day - South side of Grand Cayman... (Spotts area for the locals!)



And this one last night about 10pm, from the same location but on the shoreline - waves from Rina rolling in...

Member Since: November 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
176. stillwaiting
3:20 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
imo wcoàst of fl is going to get more wx than fôrecast 24hrs from now
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
175. WoodyFL
3:16 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Still




and link to animation

Link
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
174. JLPR2
3:13 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
97L seems to be giving it another try.



Did I kill the blog?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
173. JLPR2
3:01 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Avila is crazy, lol.


TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

RINA HAS BECOME A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN
DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AGO...AND I WAS TEMPTED TO
LOWER THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
CHECKING THE CYCLONE MEASURED SEVERAL FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WHICH
SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH
LAND AS WELL. ON THIS BASIS...RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND
THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EARLY SATURDAY IF NOT SOONER. RINA WILL LIKELY BECOME A
MEANDERING REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION.

FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
SOUTHWARD BACK TO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE IT ALL BEGAN.
MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS PREFER THIS SOLUTION. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO
THIS...IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONES.





$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Avila is awesome! LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
172. Seastep
3:01 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting WoodyFL:
That was a strange way to end a forecast by Avila. What do you think he meant by it, Tropical???


Not strange to me. From the beginning, I found it hard to believe what some models were doing.

Find a comparable. Good luck.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
171. Orcasystems
3:00 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
170. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:00 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting WoodyFL:
That was a strange way to end a forecast by Avila. What do you think he meant by it, Tropical???

No clue.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
169. MahFL
2:58 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Wow she blew up again, a bit of a surprise.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
168. bohonkweatherman
2:58 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Well at least some parts of Texas got some moisture today, 4 to 5 inches of snow around Amarillo. Rain in North and Southeast Texas but nothing near South Central Texas. Good News is some parts of Texas are seeing Improvement, bad news for me not around here. That is very early for snow for Amarillo too.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
167. DDR
2:56 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Has anyone seen pottery lately?
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
166. WoodyFL
2:55 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
That was a strange way to end a forecast by Avila. What do you think he meant by it, Tropical???
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
165. DDR
2:54 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Small hardware buisness,work around the yard and deliveries.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
164. WoodyFL
2:54 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:
Looks like Rina is firing up yet again Woody.
Not seeing what will turn her back south into the Caribbean, nor will I tonight as I am done for the day. goodnight.


I thought you were already gone. Good-night, again. See ya, Chicklit.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
163. stormwatcherCI
2:52 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting DDR:

Its hard to avoid the weather in my line of work,but i try.
What do you do ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
162. DDR
2:49 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The past few days here the lightning has been unbelievable. Be careful and stay inside when there is lightning.

Its hard to avoid the weather in my line of work,but i try.Same here,for the past 4 days its been crazy every afternoon.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
161. Chicklit
2:48 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Looks like Rina is firing up yet again Woody.
Not seeing what will turn her back south into the Caribbean, nor will I tonight as I am done for the day. goodnight.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.