Tropical Storm Rina continues to deteriorate; close to landfall in Mexico

By: Angela Fritz , 9:19 PM GMT on October 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Rina has taken a beating in the past 48 hours. Between a mass of dry air to its west and strong southerly wind shear, Rina has not been able to overcome its environment. At 5pm EDT, Rina had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving north at 7 mph. At 3:30pm EDT, Rina was located about 50 miles south of Cozumel. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found surface wind speeds of around 55 mph (moderate tropical storm-strength) on the north side of the storm and central pressure of 993 mb and rising. Rina's thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly since yesterday. The storm is battling a whopping 30 knots of wind shear, and its surface center is becoming exposed again this evening, which is apparent on satellite.

Wind speed on Cozumel is a breezy 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The island has received 0.28 inches of rain so far today, and it doesn't look like it's going to get much more than that. At Cancun, winds are blowing at 8 mph with gusts up to 15 mph and wave height on the beach is pretty low.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery shows Rina's thunderstorm activity has all but disappeared, and the surface center is exposed, likely due to the high wind shear from the south. Source: NOAA.


Forecast for Tropical Storm Rina
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to make landfall near Cozumel later this evening as a tropical storm. Over the next 48 hours, Rina is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as a cold front nudges it back into the Caribbean (Figure 2). The GFS is forecasting Rina to re-intensify to around 55 mph early next week. The ECMWF was predicting a similar event in this morning's forecast but has since backed off, and the HWRF agrees. The most likely scenario is that Rina's remnants will linger in the western Caribbean through the beginning of next week before finally dissolving into the surrounding environment.



Figure 2. Surface forecast for Saturday morning from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. A cold front dipping south into the Caribbean will be responsible for kicking Rina back into the Caribbean.

Angela

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Looks like we will have a hurricane in the GOM.
Keep safe Texas
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Looks like the computer models might eat some crow for breakfast....Happy friday...
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TS.Rina's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 27Oct_6amGMT and ending 28Oct_6amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormRina's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 28Oct_6amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 20.486n87.242w-PCM is the endpoint of the 28Oct_12amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 20.464n87.262w-TUY is the same for the 27Oct_6pmGMT*mapping
but now connected to its 2nd nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Rina's travel-speed was 8.2mph(13.1k/h) on a heading of 7.6degrees(N)
TS.Rina made landfall near 20.553n87.15w -- northeast of Palmul,QuintanaRoo,Mexico -- and
was headed toward entry into the Gulf of Mexico near the other Cancun ~3hours from now

Copy&paste cme, isj, 20.464n87.262w-tuy, 20.486n87.242w-pcm, 18.6n86.7w-18.9n86.9w, 18.9n86.9w-19.5n87.1w, 19.5n87.1w-20.2n87.2w, 20.2n87.2w-20.9n87.1w, 20.2n87.2w-20.553n87.15w, 20.2n87.2w-21.551n87.007w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 28Oct_12amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the previous projections.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting AussieStorm:

Cheers to the Weekend everyone, Rina will be just a fluff ball of cloud soon.
good morning, drizzling here this morning 60-70 percent rain chances today, which is ok we need the rain...have a great day everyone
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Good morning all,

the three-hour Terminal Countdown sequence has been initiated for today's launch of the Delta 2 rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

Live coverage of the Delta 2 rocket launching the NPP climate and weather satellite from Spaceflight Now and NASA HD-TV.

NPP Launch Countdown clock


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Cheers to the Weekend everyone, Rina will be just a fluff ball of cloud soon.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting WoodyFL:

So...97l is the culprit.....
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Can someone someone close to were Rina is located, go outside and blow in her direction. I think that's all it will take for her to dissipate atm.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting sar2401:


Wunderkid, I'm well aware of DMin and DMax. You usually see DMax in the tropics between midnight and 0800 local time....right about now. The COC is essentially irrelevant because she's only slightly more than a tropical depression. The pressure has been rising like a rocket. It's up to 29.41. The pressure at my house in Central Alabama is 29.87. I've never seen any tropical storm become better organized when the pressure is rapidly rising. Forget all that stuff about what's happening with a moisture field, you're seeing blow off from Rina's convection, not the creation of a moisture field. Some storms can fight off dry air and shear with no problem, but not a dying tropical storm like Rina. Her best chance was three days ago, and it's been downhill since. The rest of the thunderstorm activity in the southern Caribbean is just that - thunderstorms. There's no organization and no banding. You're confusing the large coverage area of a group of individual storms with an organized storm.

I'm sure I've convinced you of nothing, so we'll have to wait a couple of days and see. If Rina or ex-97L turns into the storm that ate Miami, I'll be glad to come back here and eat crow. If nothing happens, I'm sure you'll be willing to do the same.

whatever I am very sleepy and goin bed lets see what happens in the morn and the rest of the day
by the way I am not confused at all
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
Quoting scottsvb:


Sports are fixed... WS had the 2nd lowest ratings of all time so far.. they had to spice it up.. lol
Really? Had 40 share in STL whole series, East Cost not in everybody cries! If you'd been watching, one of the best in a long time! We're getting 11 tomorrow, sorry TX, though I'm sure Houston not disappointed! Ya'll really should watch tomorrow since Rina poofing like Rangers! I'll be in STL, 50s dropping to 40s. Calling on all St Pete/ Tampa Jupiter residents, we spring trained and TLR a native, give the Cards some love! rant over, thanks
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night
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all so the higher the winds or the slower the storm the more ACE you get but the winds have too be at lest 35kt and above
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winds have too be at 35kt and above be for you start seeing the ACE add up on a storm
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Basically dealing with 1/3rd of a storm at this point.

C position is still inland NW of Cozumel. 40 miles give or take.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

acually it quite the opposite you have nocturnal decrease in thunderstorm activity cause of D-Min however you get very late night and morning increase cause if D-max. Yes Rena has got better organized, one key factor that goes into that is that the convection is over the COC as we speek. The pressures aren't rising as fast and with the increasing convection its creating a moisture field for it's dry air protection. Shear is not that bad, I've seen storm hang on with 30 shear, which right now rena is getting 15-20kt. In terms of forecast track according to cancun radar rena has started a NE-ENE track which is E of forecasted track which mean may start its E track earlier and it S track further E so may not even make it into the GOM

97L is much better organized since earlier today, yesterday, and the day before now starting to show some sort of spiral bands. It is not going to get traped in the SW Carib. Its moving NW-WNW and is expected to follow a track simmilar to Rena, but further E track. 97L could get trapped in the NW Carib after it sucks in Rena or whst ever is left of her


Wunderkid, I'm well aware of DMin and DMax. You usually see DMax in the tropics between midnight and 0800 local time....right about now. The COC is essentially irrelevant because she's only slightly more than a tropical depression. The pressure has been rising like a rocket. It's up to 29.41. The pressure at my house in Central Alabama is 29.87. I've never seen any tropical storm become better organized when the pressure is rapidly rising. Forget all that stuff about what's happening with a moisture field, you're seeing blow off from Rina's convection, not the creation of a moisture field. Some storms can fight off dry air and shear with no problem, but not a dying tropical storm like Rina. Her best chance was three days ago, and it's been downhill since. The rest of the thunderstorm activity in the southern Caribbean is just that - thunderstorms. There's no organization and no banding. You're confusing the large coverage area of a group of individual storms with an organized storm.

I'm sure I've convinced you of nothing, so we'll have to wait a couple of days and see. If Rina or ex-97L turns into the storm that ate Miami, I'll be glad to come back here and eat crow. If nothing happens, I'm sure you'll be willing to do the same.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15322
2am TWO 97L moving NW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
Quoting RyanFSU:


I do not use TD strength for ACE as my website says. I only use 34 knots + observations (6-hourly). My estimates of ACE are based upon the ATCF estimates which are the first-guess of intensity used for the global operational models (needed for bogus insertion, wave models, warnings, etc.) Thus, the final ACE for the season will change for every storm by a very small amount as the post-season analysis is completed and the final tracks are provided to the long-term best track.

Most of the differences occur at the tail end of the lifecycle usually associated with the declaration of extratropical status. The ACE for the season is probably within a few points of 120.


Regardless, you have a great site which we all enjoy. I post your models whenever I can. You figure them anyway you see fit. I have read your articles on the 2010 season. Very informative and well written.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Alright fellas goodnight...thanks for the contributions WoodyFL, BaltimoreBrian, and Scottsvb I appreciate your inputs. 97L may not develop or it may surprise and pull a trick for Halloween.


You too GT. Get some good sleep. I am on my way back to sleep, too. Nite all.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting petewxwatcher:


That's interesting. And a misleading way to calculate things.


I'm mildly surprised that tropical depressions would add 4 points of ACE.

Most you could get in six hours is 0.09, with some 0.0625 advisories thrown in.



I do not use TD strength for ACE as my website says. I only use 34 knots + observations (6-hourly). My estimates of ACE are based upon the ATCF estimates which are the first-guess of intensity used for the global operational models (needed for bogus insertion, wave models, warnings, etc.) Thus, the final ACE for the season will change for every storm by a very small amount as the post-season analysis is completed and the final tracks are provided to the long-term best track.

Most of the differences occur at the tail end of the lifecycle usually associated with the declaration of extratropical status. The ACE for the season is probably within a few points of 120.
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Quoting WoodyFL:
That's very cold cloud tops probably around -80 degrees.
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Alright fellas goodnight...thanks for the contributions WoodyFL, BaltimoreBrian, and Scottsvb I appreciate your inputs. 97L may not develop or it may surprise and pull a trick for Halloween.
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Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting sar2401:


You're seeing the typical nocturnal increase in thunderstrom activity of a tropical system. Rina shows no signs of increasing organization and the pressure is rising fast. She's too weak of a low to penetrate the dry air and shear for more the 50 miles in the GOM before turning back south, just like the forecast track suggests. Ex-97L is also not better organized and will be trapped in the southern Caribbean with no steering currents to move it anywhere. Except for giving places like the Caymans rain they don't need, these systems are done. As far as developing into some monster that's going to hit Florida, well, now we're getting into wishcasting at its finest.

acually it quite the opposite you have nocturnal decrease in thunderstorm activity cause of D-Min however you get very late night and morning increase cause if D-max. Yes Rena has got better organized, one key factor that goes into that is that the convection is over the COC as we speek. The pressures aren't rising as fast and with the increasing convection its creating a moisture field for it's dry air protection. Shear is not that bad, I've seen storm hang on with 30+ shear, which right now rena is getting 15-20kt. In terms of forecast track according to cancun radar rena has started a NE-ENE track which is E of forecasted track which mean may start its E track earlier and it S track further E so may not even make it into the GOM

97L is much better organized since earlier today, yesterday, and the day before now starting to show some sort of spiral bands. It is not going to get traped in the SW Carib. Its moving NW-WNW and is expected to follow a track simmilar to Rena, but further E track. 97L could get trapped in the NW Carib after it sucks in Rena or whst ever is left of her
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Indeed! Night Woody, et al.


See you around, BB.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
The center should be moving off of the Yucatan soon.
According to the models, it should start moving South when the front sweeps in.


Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Indeed! Night Woody, et al.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Having the last game on a Friday night won't be good for ratings.

And Rina was a pretty "tinny" storm wasn't she, Woody?


Very. :)
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
No harm done Scott.
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Having the last game on a Friday night won't be good for ratings.

And Rina was a pretty "tinny" storm wasn't she, Woody?
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oops wrong post quote... sorry
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Quoting too much of that skit is gonna get us in trouble ;)

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Goooooooorn!

I can't believe I'm still up. Looking through the GFS run before I got to bed.


I'm just semi-joking about it being fixed.. but it is all about $$$ and ratings.. but yeah it's 2nd lowest ratings ever... lowest was TB vs..Philly...

Only thing that will make ratings go crazy would be LA vs NYYs or even Cleveland Indians cause they never win... maybe Cubs vs Indians World Series... ooops..this is suppose to be weather...

Anyways.. Rina should hold as a Tropical Storm at least into Saturday morning.
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GFS at 180 hours shows a freeze over much of the deep South.

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Goooooooorn!

I can't believe I'm still up. Looking through the GFS run before I got to bed.



tinny
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting WoodyFL:



Goooooooorn!

I can't believe I'm still up. Looking through the GFS run before I got to bed.
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Quoting scottsvb:


Sports are fixed... WS had the 2nd lowest ratings of all time so far.. they had to spice it up.. lol
Really? I didn't know that, one would think since it's the Cardinals with such a large fan base that this would be up near the top. Fixed or not which I do believe some games are fixed like the Yankees rolling over for the Rays just so the Red Sox wouldn't make it in, it was a great game otherwise.
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Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting sar2401:


You're seeing the typical nocturnal increase in thunderstrom activity of a tropical system. Rina shows no signs of increasing organization and the pressure is rising fast. She's too weak of a low to penetrate the dry air and shear for more the 50 miles in the GOM before turning back south, just like the forecast track suggests. Ex-97L is also not better organized and will be trapped in the southern Caribbean with no steering currents to move it anywhere. Except for giving places like the Caymans rain they don't need, these systems are done. As far as developing into some monster that's going to hit Florida, well, now we're getting into wishcasting at its finest.


There's no point of trying. lol.

It could be knocked down to a slight breeze and drizzle and people here will still find a way to justify the destruction of a major US city.

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Good ole Jimmy Buffet.

How fast will the shear rip the convection away completely?


Should be soon.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Is it safe to say we're tracking the MLC with that blow-up of convection? And the humid moisture has returned over Florida. Got some sprinkles here along the coast of West Central FL. LOL Water Vapor Loop Btw did you all just see that epic game 6 of the World Series? Man was that fun to watch! :D


Sports are fixed... WS had the 2nd lowest ratings of all time so far.. they had to spice it up.. lol
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Quoting WoodyFL:
Changes in latitude, changes in attitude.




Good ole Jimmy Buffet.

How fast will the shear rip the convection away completely?
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Rina is going along as expected..made landfall just east of Tulum and will exit just NW of Cancun and turn ENE later Friday then Sat move Slowly in the clockwise circle. I don't see her ever going back south of 20N..I think she will eventually move NNW then back NE ahead of the next front Monday or Weds..but as a sheared system. I do think she can hold TS status for awhile if she stays south of the westerlys around 20-22N and 84-86W but once she gets back north of 22N Sunday-Mon..the shear will pull her moisture NE
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Quoting sar2401:


You're seeing the typical nocturnal increase in thunderstrom activity of a tropical system. Rina shows no signs of increasing organization and the pressure is rising fast. She's too weak of a low to penetrate the dry air and shear for more the 50 miles in the GOM before turning back south, just like the forecast track suggests. Ex-97L is also not better organized and will be trapped in the southern Caribbean with no steering currents to move it anywhere. Except for giving places like the Caymans rain they don't need, these systems are done. As far as developing into some monster that's going to hit Florida, well, now we're getting into wishcasting at its finest.
Is it safe to say we're tracking the MLC with that blow-up of convection? And the humid moisture has returned over Florida. Got some sprinkles here along the coast of West Central FL. LOL Water Vapor Loop Btw did you all just see that epic game 6 of the World Series? Man was that fun to watch! :D
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Changes in latitude, changes in attitude.


Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting 7544:
hmm looks like rina is pulling a fast one and dmax comingup could she surpise us and she still moving north at this hour taht front still is pretty far north of her could she be trying to beat that front and get further north in gom and then the front swiings her east all up to mother nature now imo and even the nhc cant predict whats going on as she blowing up agian all this is soooooooooo unexpected untill it actually happens stay tuned


You're seeing the typical nocturnal increase in thunderstrom activity of a tropical system. Rina shows no signs of increasing organization and the pressure is rising fast. She's too weak of a low to penetrate the dry air and shear for more the 50 miles in the GOM before turning back south, just like the forecast track suggests. Ex-97L is also not better organized and will be trapped in the southern Caribbean with no steering currents to move it anywhere. Except for giving places like the Caymans rain they don't need, these systems are done. As far as developing into some monster that's going to hit Florida, well, now we're getting into wishcasting at its finest.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15322
Quoting 7544:
the whole flow from the caribiean to the gom all is moving north and so is rina lol almost north of the channel now dont see anything moving south do you guys

well give it a day and we will see
Quoting JLPR2:
yeah...

Hopefully land interaction will stop its development.


looks to be moving WNW-NW no land interaction for this one so far
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
Baltimore had 2.5" of snow in Oct 1925 and 1.3" of snow in Oct 1940.

Washington DC had 2.2" of snow in Oct 1925 and 1.5" in Oct 1940.

And I can't believe the Cardinals won! Awesome but took em long enough!
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Rina makes landfall about 20 miles NE of where I said 3 days ago :) winds though reported only around 40-50mph with a gust report around 58mph.. so far the Cancun airport has not seen TS winds but reports closer to the resorts have had wind gusts in the mid 40s range. Just rainy and windy weather.
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212. JLPR2
yeah...

Hopefully land interaction will stop its development.
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211. 7544
the whole flow from the caribiean to the gom all is moving north and so is rina lol almost north of the channel now dont see anything moving south do you guys
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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