Tropical Storm Rina continues to deteriorate; close to landfall in Mexico

By: Angela Fritz , 9:19 PM GMT on October 27, 2011

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Tropical Storm Rina has taken a beating in the past 48 hours. Between a mass of dry air to its west and strong southerly wind shear, Rina has not been able to overcome its environment. At 5pm EDT, Rina had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving north at 7 mph. At 3:30pm EDT, Rina was located about 50 miles south of Cozumel. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found surface wind speeds of around 55 mph (moderate tropical storm-strength) on the north side of the storm and central pressure of 993 mb and rising. Rina's thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly since yesterday. The storm is battling a whopping 30 knots of wind shear, and its surface center is becoming exposed again this evening, which is apparent on satellite.

Wind speed on Cozumel is a breezy 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The island has received 0.28 inches of rain so far today, and it doesn't look like it's going to get much more than that. At Cancun, winds are blowing at 8 mph with gusts up to 15 mph and wave height on the beach is pretty low.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery shows Rina's thunderstorm activity has all but disappeared, and the surface center is exposed, likely due to the high wind shear from the south. Source: NOAA.


Forecast for Tropical Storm Rina
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to make landfall near Cozumel later this evening as a tropical storm. Over the next 48 hours, Rina is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as a cold front nudges it back into the Caribbean (Figure 2). The GFS is forecasting Rina to re-intensify to around 55 mph early next week. The ECMWF was predicting a similar event in this morning's forecast but has since backed off, and the HWRF agrees. The most likely scenario is that Rina's remnants will linger in the western Caribbean through the beginning of next week before finally dissolving into the surrounding environment.



Figure 2. Surface forecast for Saturday morning from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. A cold front dipping south into the Caribbean will be responsible for kicking Rina back into the Caribbean.

Angela

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Quoting eddye:
hurricane warning south florida later tonight


Nah!
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Rina's moisture on the move towards S.W. Florida.
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Quoting apocalyps:
Dont be surprised if Rina becomes Hurricane.
It sure looks like it.


She left her LLC over the northern Yucatan coast.
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Anybody in Naples want to take bets on that U-turn South from the Yucatan?

Bob
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Quoting apocalyps:
Dont be surprised if Rina becomes Hurricane.
It sure looks like it.

Lets be realistic here - Rina is a naked, low-level circulation with all its deep convection being sheared off by high wind shear in excess of 30 knots. Not to mention, the Gulf of Mexico is very dry, more so than I've ever seen (not that I've really paid attention, lol). Do you really think Rina has a chance? Come on...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see Sybil--our troll with multiple personality disorder--is back. Like clockwork. Yawn...

Our 10% AOI #2 way out in the Atlantic is looking interesting this morning. There's some low-level cyclonic turning around 22N/38W, and occasional flare-ups of limited convection. Just an object of curiosity...


I hope you are not directing that first sentence to me. I ain't no troll... I'm just a weather enthusiast with a sense of humor (in which a good majority lack of).
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Dont be surprised if Rina becomes Hurricane.
It sure looks like it.
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Quoting Bergeron:


It's only one of the very few times this year that the ECMWF has nailed something...it hasn't done well on cyclogenesis however, as compared to the GFS. I usually prefer the EURO over the rest though, seeings it's a 4 dimensional model.


Hmmm...I disagree. I even remember Katrina, and how well the Euro did with that system, and that is before the recent upgrades to the ECMWF.

Been forecasting for a long time, and the ECMWF clearly is the better model...occasionally it busts however.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

True...but ATCF had it at 50 knots at 0600z, right? And with the obvious decoupling--the clouds are rushing northeast from the LLC as though there's a sale in Florida--the next one will almost certainly be a TD...
,it'll be deactivated imo,no td
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Looks like Rina is strengten again.
Does not look good.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Huh? Its the same as the 7AM CDT advisory.

True...but ATCF had it at 50 knots at 0600z, right? And with the obvious decoupling--the clouds are rushing northeast from the LLC as though there's a sale somewhere in Florida--the next update will almost certainly be the last as a TS...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13572
Quoting stillwaiting:
nakes swirl alert,reminant low rina now right on ne tip of yucatana,the mlc is decoupled and headed for swfl,maybe a burstof convection as it approaches the coastline tonight!!!


Yep, Rina's now a naked swirl with all her moisture heading for S.W. Florida.
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What once was 97L will really need to be watched over the coming days. Could have a sneaky system form down there.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I see Sybil--our troll with multiple personality disorder--is back. Like clockwork. Yawn...

Our 10% AOI #2 way out in the Atlantic is looking interesting this morning. There's some low-level cyclonic turning around 22N/38W, and occasional flare-ups of limited convection.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292
Quoting txag91met:
ECMWF wins again...why don't NHC just use the ECMWF period. It wins almost every time.

Nailed the shear, nailed the weakening of Rina.


It's only one of the very few times this year that the ECMWF has nailed something...it hasn't done well on cyclogenesis however, as compared to the GFS. I usually prefer the EURO over the rest though, seeings it's a 4 dimensional model.
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294. DDR
Yet another rainy day in T&T.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1703
Quoting Neapolitan:
Almost gone:

AL, 18, 2011102812, , BEST, 0, 215N, 868W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 35, 35, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RINA, M,

Huh? Its the same as the 7AM CDT advisory.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292
I see Sybil--our troll with multiple personality disorder--is back. Like clockwork. Yawn...

Our 10% AOI #2 way out in the Atlantic is looking interesting this morning. There's some low-level cyclonic turning around 22N/38W, and occasional flare-ups of limited convection. Just an object of curiosity...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13572
deactivation at anytime,no mo rina!!!
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nakes swirl alert,reminant low rina now right on ne tip of yucatana,the mlc is decoupled and headed for swfl,maybe a burstof convection as it approaches the coastline tonight!!!
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.
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my quote from yesterday morn: im wondering if some mid level circ makes its way ne thru the next 36hrs as rina possibly decouples today or tonight,enhancing rain and wind along fl's sw coastline,maybe look out for a possible hybrid low or possible subtropical low forming north of the yucatan channel tonight thru tomorrow,just my thinking to stir up the blog!......i alsobthink that the rain forecast for central and s.fl is wrong,wide spread 1" ,2-3-"isolated along coastline
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Almost gone:

AL, 18, 2011102812, , BEST, 0, 215N, 868W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 35, 35, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RINA, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13572
ECMWF wins again...why don't NHC just use the ECMWF period. It wins almost every time.

Nailed the shear, nailed the weakening of Rina.
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283. eddye
could be a tropical storm when it hits fl so put up ts warning
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AussieStorm-

Awesome picture. I spent many an afternoon at the Opera House Bar soaking in that view earlier this year.



By the way.
That WS game was epic last night. If you watched, you were treated to something special you rarely see in all of sports. One for the ages.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Going to be a very rainy day for portions of Florida...br

sure will be! unless it gets sheared to smithereens before it gets here.
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Quoting Walshy:


What a great start to the morning. *salutes

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Uh-oh.

During this unending World Series game I came across an error by Dr. Masters in a guest column on the BBC.

The guest column is here.

A quote from his guest column.

"If 2011 finishes without a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting the U.S.--which is likely--it will mark the first six-year period without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. since record keeping began in 1851. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma of October 2005."


However there was a 9 year gap between major hurricane landfalls from 1860 to 1869.

The 1851-1860 map.

And the 1861-1870 map.




A nice spot. It'd start from 1861 to 69 as there was a major hit in 1860. Of course, there were a couple of Cat 2s hitting, so we'll never know for sure as hurricane antiquity is pretty unreliable.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Uh-oh.

During this unending World Series game I came across an error by Dr. Masters in a guest column on the BBC.

The guest column is here.

A quote from his guest column.

"If 2011 finishes without a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting the U.S.--which is likely--it will mark the first six-year period without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. since record keeping began in 1851. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma of October 2005."


However there was a 9 year gap between major hurricane landfalls from 1860 to 1869.

The 1851-1860 map.

And the 1861-1870 map.




Mornin' Brian. You are correct, but in reviewing those years the Galveston Hurricane jumps out at me. What a friggin mess this thing, and the rest of the 1867 season was for shipping. Can you imagine the destruction a similar 'cane would cause today...

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Quoting BackwoodsTN:

Troll Alert: JFVisOmnipotent and dabirds.
He still comes on here under different names but I just ignore him. He is very immature and disruptive to the blog.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8394
It's going to be interesting to watch what happens when what is left of Rina meets up with what is left of X-97L.
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Quoting matilda101:
I suspect that 97L will become the dominate player now in the Carribean.
Hopefully nothing will come of it.
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I suspect that 97L will become the dominate player now in the Carribean.
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LinkWVLoopGOM
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. This sentence from this morning's discussion caught my eye:

THE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BEHIND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

I found this quite interesting, since it helps to explain why some of the models were forecasting Rina to make landfall in FL 3-5 days ago. This is something we need to keep in mind for future interpretations of model runs where the models are sharply divided into two groups; perhaps what the models collectively are forecasting is a decoupling of the storm's circulation, with one sub-group forecasting the LLC and the other the MLC.

Gotta run; Have a great Friday! [Whoohoo! Yeah, FRIDAY!!!! lol]
Yep. That's exactly what was happening. The models will latch on to the strongest vorticity in the system, which may end up occuring in the mid levels
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
700 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...RINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 86.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Going to be a very rainy day for portions of Florida...

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looks like the glob will be pushed right over s fl. might be alittle water rise
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hope that link works. i talked to Levi and asked him about the east coast troughing and he said its been there since 2009 september/october and up to september of 2011 and probably october this year aswell remained in place. this is why its hard to get a landfalling US hurricane in recent years.
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Good morning, and thanks for that information about this morning's successful launch in California, Xandra.

LinkNASA NPP Launch Blog



...Over the last dozen years, NASA has launched a series of satellites – known collectively as the Earth Observing System (EOS) – that has provided critical insights into the dynamics of the entire Earth system: clouds, oceans, vegetation, ice, solid Earth and atmosphere. Now NASA is helping to create a new generation of satellites to extend and improve upon the Earth system data records established by EOS.
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wooops, Rina's hat blew off!!!
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Morning all. This sentence from this morning's discussion caught my eye:

THE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BEHIND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

I found this quite interesting, since it helps to explain why some of the models were forecasting Rina to make landfall in FL 3-5 days ago. This is something we need to keep in mind for future interpretations of model runs where the models are sharply divided into two groups; perhaps what the models collectively are forecasting is a decoupling of the storm's circulation, with one sub-group forecasting the LLC and the other the MLC.

Gotta run; Have a great Friday! [Whoohoo! Yeah, FRIDAY!!!! lol]
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Good morning, all. Enjoying the much needed rain here.
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Looks like we will have a hurricane in the GOM.
Keep safe Texas
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.