Rina still a Cat 2, and may have peaked in intensity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:48 PM GMT on October 26, 2011

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There is little change to Category 2 Hurricane Rina, which continues slowly west-northwest at 4 mph towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The most recent hurricane hunter mission was at 3:58 am EDT this morning, and the next aircraft is not due into the storm until this afternoon, so we'll have to rely on satellite estimates of the storm's strength until then. Recent satellite intensity estimates suggest Rina has peaked in intensity, and may have weakened slightly since the last hurricane hunter mission. The eye is no longer visible on visible satellite loops, and the storm has a distinctly lopsided appearance, which are both signs that Rina may be weakening. Recent microwave images (Figure 1) suggest that the southern portion of Rina's eyewall may have a gap in it. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the south. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, but Rina will be leaving a region of high oceanic heat content late tonight, and will not have as much high-energy fuel to sustain itself. Rina has brought sporadic heavy rain squalls to the Yucatan; Cozumel Island airport reported 9.10" of rain yesterday and another 3.25" as of 9 am EDT today. I'm not sure this is correct, since two personal weather stations on the island reported only 1 - 2" of rain over the past two days. The outer rain bands of Rina are visible on Cancun radar and the La Bajada, Cuba radar.

If Rina does make it to Category 3 strength, it would join a very short list of major hurricanes that have occurred this late in the year. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only twelve major hurricanes in Atlantic on October 26 or later. Rina is a medium-small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds that extend out 25 miles from the center. The latest estimates of Rina's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) made yesterday afternoon by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the damage potential of Rina's storm surge at 2.5 on a scale of one to six. This is a relatively low number for a Category 2 hurricane, and means that storm surge damage will be confined to a relatively small area in the right front quadrant of Rina's eyewall. For comparison, the storm surge damage potential for Hurricane Irene when it was a strong tropical storm approaching Long Island, New York on August 28, 2011 was 4.1 on a scale of 1 to 6, since Irene was a huge storm that put vast areas of the ocean into motion.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Hurricane Rina taken at 7:15 am EDT October 26, 2011. Rina appears to only have the northern half of its eyewall intact. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found that Rina had a large elliptical eye with a diameter of 23 - 34 miles with a gap in the south eyewall during their 3:58 am EDT eye penetration this morning. Rapid intensification usually requires a circular eye with no gap in it, and thus I expect only gradual intensification of Rina can occur today. Wind shear is not expected to increase to the high range until Thursday afternoon, so Rina still has a day and a half to potentially intensify. Given the storm's inability to close off its eyewall so far, I expect that a Category 3 storm is the strongest that we will see. It is more likely that Rina has peaked in strength, and will begin to weaken. On Thursday, Rina will encounter high wind shear associated with upper-level westerly winds associated with the jet stream and a trough of low pressure moving through the Gulf of Mexico. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, and turn Rina more to the northwest by Thursday and northeast on Friday. Cozumel Island off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula appears at the highest risk of receiving a direct hit from Rina; the 5 am EDT Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave the island a 27% chance of receiving hurricane force winds, the highest chance of any land area in the forecast. If Rina hits Mexico, it would most likely be at Category 1 strength, with Category 2 strength also quite possible. NHC is giving Rina a 21% chance of being a Category 3 or stronger hurricane on Thursday afternoon, and I don't expect the storm will be a major hurricane at landfall. The chief threat from Rina is probably its rains; the hurricane is moving slowly and has the capability of dumping 8 - 16 inches of rain over the coastal Yucatan. Western Cuba is also at risk of receiving heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches.

After Rina makes its closest pass by Cozumel, it is uncertain if the storm will be strong enough to fully "feel" the steering influence of the trough, and be swept to the east-northeast into Southwest Florida and the Florida Keys. If Rina makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula and weakens significantly, the storm will likely be too weak to get caught up by the trough and will remain trapped in the Western Caribbean. This is the solution of the latest runs of the ECMWF and HWRF models, with the usually reliable ECMWF model continuing to predict that Rina will dissipate over the Yucatan. However, if Rina grazes the Yucatan and remains strong through Friday, it is more likely to get caught up by the trough and drawn into the Florida Keys or Southwest Florida near Marco Island, as a weakening tropical storm. This is the solution of the latest 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. The latest 2 am EDT runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models are in-between, predicting that Rina will get very close to the Keys on Saturday, but then weaken and sink southwards towards Cuba. There is high degree of uncertainty which set of model runs will be correct, and the threat to Florida depends strongly upon how much of a blow Mexico receives from the hurricane.

97L in the Central Caribbean not expected to develop
A broad region of low pressure in the Central Caribbean south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, (Invest 97L), is moving west at 10 - 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased since yesterday, and is disorganized. The storm is surrounded by a large region of dry air, and this dry air is the main impediment to development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low through Thursday. None of the reliable models are predicting that 97L will develop, and NHC gave 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. NHC is no longer interested enough in 97L to generate computer model forecasts of its track. Heavy rains from 97L should reach Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands by early Friday morning.

There will be a new post on Rina late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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514. MahFL
11:19 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Why is the cdo spreading south if there is southerly shear ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3338
513. HurricaneHunterJoe
10:36 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting alvarig1263:


Maybe you weren't paying attention to the recon data, but her winds have increased to 90 MPH and her pressure has fallen to 977 MB. That is not a TS to me. The reasonable explanation is that by sitting in the same area for a while it caused her to weaken, among other factors. but now that she has sped up and has made a turn to the NW, she is reintensifying.


+1000, robert says the same thing post after post
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5149
512. HurricaneHunterJoe
10:11 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting BenBIogger:


See that small tongue of dry air SE/E of Rina? Now watch what happens in 3-4 hours from now.


POOF I just don't like egging on people
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5149
511. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:36 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting robert88:
Hard to believe her eyewall is already gone.
000
URNT12 KNHC 261818
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 26/17:50:00Z
B. 18 deg 00 min N
085 deg 41 min W
C. 700 mb 2969 m
D. 63 kt
E. 063 deg 3 nm
F. 151 deg 72 kt
G. 062 deg 6 nm
H. EXTRAP 976 mb
I. 11 C / 3048 m
J. 22 C / 3045 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0818A RINA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 17:48:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
SFC WINDS REPORTED ON EYE DROP WERE 31KTS
SFC PRESSURE REPORTED ON EYE DROP WAS 985MB
;


POOF go ahead egg the wishcasters on!! the games some people play
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5149
510. WeatherNerdPR
9:29 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Good Afternoon.
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5630
509. AllStar17
9:25 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
THE LATEST
5:00pm Advisory
*Click images to magnify (images can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking on them)

Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
508. wunderkidcayman
9:19 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season end with Rina?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Undecided

==If you answered no to the above question, then ignore the below question==

Q: How many more named storms will the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season have?

A. 1
B. 2
C. 3
D. 4+

The NHC has a lot of deciding to do in post-season...From 96L in the Bay of Campeche in July, to 96L north of Bermuda in August (IIRC), to 93L off the Florida coast this month.


B
B or C
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11177
507. WoodyFL
9:17 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
The outflow looks bad, the cirrus clouds are poor and the structure is bad, but those strong storms and cold cloud tops are persisting.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
506. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:15 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Q: Will the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season end with Rina?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Undecided

==If you answered no to the above question, then ignore the below question==

Q: How many more named storms will the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season have?

A. 1
B. 2
C. 3
D. 4+

The NHC has a lot of deciding to do in post-season...From 96L in the Bay of Campeche in July, to 96L north of Bermuda in August (IIRC), to 93L off the Florida coast this month.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
505. reedzone
9:12 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting 996tt:


Haha, God love you. You stick to your guns and go out on a limb. What did you say Rina was going to do yesterday??? Maybe I am mixed up. If so, I apologize. Did you slam Cantorre who was down playing storm saying he was idiot or did you take up for Jim saying he had to be somewhat consistent with NHC. Someone was calling thus thing to be cat 4 or major, still string when gets to aflorida and calling Cantorre a kook.

I agree TWC people are all kooks who are 90 percent drama, 5 percent weather, and 5 percent general reporting. They over dramatize everything and like to insight fear and panic all in the name of increased ratings.

Haha, they were telling everyone in NYC to abandon high rise buildings for Irene or they were in serious peril and there would be many failures and injuries from flying glass and blown out windows. Then they accidentally interviewed a structural engineer who said mo worries, buildings were safe and you could see Cantorre's face was like oh crap, he just said opposite of the TWC's agenda and made them look like kooks. I used to love Weather Channel, but cannot watch it any more as it is so far from what it used to be.


Thanks for the apology before hand...

I never really said anything about Rina until today. I just said anything is possible down there, and the impossible happened. It rapidly became a Hurricane.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
504. 996tt
9:01 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


Very good post and that's exactly why she weakened. Notice after she finally started to move, convection built up. I expect a 90-100 mph. storm before it winds down.


Haha, God love you. You stick to your guns and go out on a limb. What did you say Rina was going to do yesterday??? Maybe I am mixed up. If so, I apologize. Did you slam Cantorre who was down playing storm saying he was idiot or did you take up for Jim saying he had to be somewhat consistent with NHC. Someone was calling thus thing to be cat 4 or major, still string when gets to aflorida and calling Cantorre a kook.

I agree TWC people are all kooks who are 90 percent drama, 5 percent weather, and 5 percent general reporting. They over dramatize everything and like to insight fear and panic all in the name of increased ratings.

Haha, they were telling everyone in NYC to abandon high rise buildings for Irene or they were in serious peril and there would be many failures and injuries from flying glass and blown out windows. Then they accidentally interviewed a structural engineer who said mo worries, buildings were safe and you could see Cantorre's face was like oh crap, he just said opposite of the TWC's agenda and made them look like kooks. I used to love Weather Channel, but cannot watch it any more as it is so far from what it used to be.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
503. wunderkidcayman
9:00 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
hey guys looking at the new forecast cone I don't think Rina will go that far N I think by early morn rina would start getting pulled NE-E
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11177
502. alvarig1263
8:57 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting portcharlotte:
I am surprised by the further south track taken by NHC. I would have expected to at least continue with the previous track. I am not buying that but I could be wrong. If anything trends are looking for less shear and more moisture.


I agree, models seem confused. Rina is surely heading in the right direction and is picking up speed. No reason really why the trough wouldn't pick it up, except for the weakening cold front.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
501. portcharlotte
8:57 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
that's a bold statement and you maybe right but there are many hours left to play in this game ...let's see what happens


Quoting barotropic:
With the new discussion out and the forecast track now not coming near the keys, I think we can put this one to rest. The TPC doesnt expect any strengthening at all, essentially weakening in about 24 hours and now is frcst to be a trop storm over NE tip of yuc. .......We really dont need the probs in fla anyway.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
500. will40
8:57 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
with the weakening trend i think Florida may have dodged a bullet on this one
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4111
499. alvarig1263
8:55 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting portcharlotte:
you are wasting your time with this chronic guy who has only one agenda...He's not worth responding to




Thanks for letting me know.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
498. CitikatzSouthFL
8:55 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes12:

Here we go loop-de-loo, here we go loop-de-lie. LOL
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 442
497. portcharlotte
8:54 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
I am surprised by the further south track taken by NHC. I would have expected to at least continue with the previous track. I am not buying that but I could be wrong. If anything trends are looking for less shear and more moisture.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
496. WoodyFL
8:54 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting charlottefl:


Pressure has been falling all day here in SWFL. (Slowly of course) wouldn't be surprised on the next CIMSS update to see the High has slid more to the E.


It has. I must have picked an old map.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
495. barotropic
8:54 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
With the new discussion out and the forecast track now not coming near the keys, I think we can put this one to rest. The TPC doesnt expect any strengthening at all, essentially weakening in about 24 hours and now is frcst to be a trop storm over NE tip of yuc. .......We really dont need the probs in fla anyway.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
494. Hurricanes12
8:53 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR...AND
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
THAT RINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT AND
SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 75-78 KT...WHILE AN EYEWALL
DROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS NEAR 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 75 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THE VORTEX IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT...AS DROPSONDES AT THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED 25-30 KT SURFACE
WINDS. THIS TILT IS LIKELY DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DEPICTED IN ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN.

RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 310/5. THE FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY ARE UNCHANGED FOR THE
FIRST 48 HOURS...WITH THE HURRICANE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
VERY PROBLEMATIC AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF HOW RINA
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND HOW LONG IT HOLDS TOGETHER
VERTICALLY. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND
CANADIAN MODELS NOW FORECAST RINA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MAKE A HAIRPIN
TURN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HWRF MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THESE MODELS AND IS THUS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THIS LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

RINA IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...
SUGGESTS IT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 36
HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR AS THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO WEAKEN IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING
THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS
MODEL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
120 HOURS OR EARLIER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 18.2N 85.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.7N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 20.0N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 21.4N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 22.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1800Z 23.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 22.5N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 22.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
493. Hurricanes12
8:52 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
491. charlottefl
8:49 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting WoodyFL:
Pretty recent wind analysis map. Nice squeeze-play. Like a wide-receiver heading for the end zone with the defense all around him. The high pressure to the east should be migrating east soon.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8dlm4.GIF


Pressure has been falling all day here in SWFL. (Slowly of course) wouldn't be surprised on the next CIMSS update to see the High has slid more to the E.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
490. onthescene
8:48 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
Member Since: October 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
489. portcharlotte
8:47 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
you are wasting your time with this chronic guy who has only one agenda...He's not worth responding to


Quoting alvarig1263:


Maybe you weren't paying attention to the recon data, but her winds have increased to 90 MPH and her pressure has fallen to 977 MB. That is not a TS to me. The reasonable explanation is that by sitting in the same area for a while it caused her to weaken, among other factors. but now that she has sped up and has made a turn to the NW, she is reintensifying.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
488. Buhdog
8:47 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Ok so there is a small difference between Rina and Wilma


Link

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487. charlottefl
8:45 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
486. njdevil
8:45 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting alvarig1263:


Maybe you weren't paying attention to the recon data, but her winds have increased to 90 MPH and her pressure has fallen to 977 MB. That is not a TS to me. The reasonable explanation is that by sitting in the same area for a while it caused her to weaken, among other factors. but now that she has sped up and has made a turn to the NW, she is reintensifying.


Maybe YOU aren't paying attention and don't realize that the storm is borderline naked visable except for the center core.

God, now we have excusecasting. I guess it's disappointing that the storm didn't meet expectations of a mid/high 3/low 4 and won't kill and destroy enough stuff so now we have to puff it up when it's currently a glorified supercell.
Member Since: July 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 145
485. WoodyFL
8:43 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Pretty recent wind analysis map. Nice squeeze-play. Like a wide-receiver heading for the end zone with the defense all around him. The high pressure to the east should be migrating east soon.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
484. LargoFl
8:43 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just looking at the latest satellite trends, I would expect Hurricane Rina to restrengthen possibly back to Category 2 status within the next 24 hours before the environment becomes less favorable for the storm. Noticing spiral banding pattern returning to the storm with a new spiral band forming over the Yucatan. In addition, core convection continues to deepen over the past few hours and the environment has become more moist throughout the day.
would be nice if she sent some rain to central florida but it looks like the cold front will prevent that from happening
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
483. alvarig1263
8:42 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting robert88:
Rina looks awful now. Dry air really doing a number on her. She will be downgraded to a TS before she hits the Yucatan.


Maybe you weren't paying attention to the recon data, but her winds have increased to 90 MPH and her pressure has fallen to 977 MB. That is not a TS to me. The reasonable explanation is that by sitting in the same area for a while it caused her to weaken, among other factors. but now that she has sped up and has made a turn to the NW, she is reintensifying.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
482. foggymyst
8:41 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Local met in Sofla stating the worst case is tropical storm in 4 days.. Either way it will be rainy.. Nothing Sunny South Fla can't handle.
Member Since: September 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
481. sar2401
8:40 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Sarah, your link is bad, at least for me.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13334
480. njdevil
8:39 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting yqt1001:
6 hours ago, Rina's inner structure looked like this:



Visible imagery from that time:



Fair bet to say that her eyewall looks pretty decent atm.



But that's the entire storm at this point! It's kind of on a razor's edge if it runs into any kind of negative influence because it will attack the core of the storm.

And yeah that earlier visable did look pretty awful. lol.
Member Since: July 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 145
479. alvarig1263
8:39 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting SarahFromFLA:
A LOT of dry air over the Gulf is right.


But notice when you loop the image you can see the dry air in the SE GOM is slowly eroding away from the moisture from Rina. So the whole rest of the GOM can stay dry if it wants to but the SE GOM is what we want to watch for, for high wind shear, and dry air. But it seems that so far the wind shear is lower than expected, and the dry air is slowly disappearing as Rina gets closer.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
478. sar2401
8:38 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


Very good post and that's exactly why she weakened. Notice after she finally started to move, convection built up. I expect a 90-100 mph. storm before it winds down.


Thank you, reedzone. I'm glad to see at least one person reads my posts. After watching the action here the last two days, one would have thought that Wilma 2 was about to flatten something. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13334
477. robert88
8:38 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Rina looks awful now. Dry air really doing a number on her. She will be downgraded to a TS before she hits the Yucatan.
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476. SarahFromFLA
8:36 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
A LOT of dry air over the Gulf is right.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 86
475. 7544
8:33 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
models shifting further north a cone change soon peeps ?
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474. Sfloridacat5
8:32 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
471 - :)
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473. alvarig1263
8:31 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
@ 5PM advisory I'm calling for 90 MPH winds, and 980 MB's.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
472. Sfloridacat5
8:31 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 20:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 20:05:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°08'N 85°54'W (18.1333N 85.9W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 157 miles (252 km) to the ENE (74°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,937m (9,636ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the W (279°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 33° at 76kts (From the NNE at ~ 87.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WNW (282°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 79kts (~ 90.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:10:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 79kts (~ 90.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:10:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYE DROP REPORTED SLP OF 981MB AND 24KT SFC WIND
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6188
471. alvarig1263
8:30 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 20:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 20:05:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°08'N 85°54'W (18.1333N 85.9W)
B. Center Fix Location: 157 miles (252 km) to the ENE (74°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,937m (9,636ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the W (279°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 33° at 76kts (From the NNE at ~ 87.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WNW (282°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 79kts (~ 90.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:10:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 79kts (~ 90.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:10:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYE DROP REPORTED SLP OF 981MB AND 24KT SFC WIND
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
470. WoodyFL
8:27 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
469. reedzone
8:23 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting sar2401:
I see my question way back at post #292 has become lost among the wishcasting, doomcasting, and downcasting. It seems to me that much of the weakening we've seen is because Rina has spent way too much time at about the same spot, bringing up too much cooler water over time. When she finally gets her butt in gear and moves over some hot water again, I suspect she will regain some of that lost strength. It still appears to me that Rina will come on shore as a weak Cat 2 somewhere around Cancun. Assuming she survives this, the remnants will get into the Gulf, where there's a lot of dry air and shear for such a small storm to deal with.

The dry air is all over the Gulf and southeast US and I don't see it getting moistened up by any fronts headed our way. If we're lucky, we might get a few showers out of the trough passing through central Alabama Thursday night or Friday. The front was looking much more vigorous two days ago. Just as information, my PWS is showing a temperature of 82 with a humidity of 29%. The recovery this morning only for the RH up to 62%. Beyond the fact that there's a high probability that Rina will either go onshore or have a close brush near Cancun, I have no idea what will happen next. I do know that the usual juicy, moist air over the Gulf isn't there, and that's going to make it tough for Rina to survive if and when she turns to the east.

BTW, WoodyFL, I appreciate your graphics too. I wish I was smart enough to contribute some decent graphics to the blog.


Very good post and that's exactly why she weakened. Notice after she finally started to move, convection built up. I expect a 90-100 mph. storm before it winds down.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
468. alvarig1263
8:22 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:


guys is her center in side the big convection bubble or to the east of it


Right inside it.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
467. yqt1001
8:21 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
6 hours ago, Rina's inner structure looked like this:



Visible imagery from that time:



Fair bet to say that her eyewall looks pretty decent atm.

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
466. sar2401
8:20 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
I see my question way back at post #292 has become lost among the wishcasting, doomcasting, and downcasting. It seems to me that much of the weakening we've seen is because Rina has spent way too much time at about the same spot, bringing up too much cooler water over time. When she finally gets her butt in gear and moves over some hot water again, I suspect she will regain some of that lost strength. It still appears to me that Rina will come on shore as a weak Cat 2 somewhere around Cancun. Assuming she survives this, the remnants will get into the Gulf, where there's a lot of dry air and shear for such a small storm to deal with.

The dry air is all over the Gulf and southeast US and I don't see it getting moistened up by any fronts headed our way. If we're lucky, we might get a few showers out of the trough passing through central Alabama Thursday night or Friday. The front was looking much more vigorous two days ago. Just as information, my PWS is showing a temperature of 82 with a humidity of 29%. The recovery this morning was only 62%. Beyond the fact that there's a high probability that Rina will either go onshore or have a close brush near Cancun, I have no idea what will happen next. I do know that the usual juicy, moist air over the Gulf isn't there, and that's going to make it tough for Rina to survive if and when she turns to the east.

BTW, WoodyFL, I appreciate your graphics too. I wish I was smart enough to contribute some decent graphics to the blog.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13334
465. ChrisDcat5Storm
8:19 PM GMT on October 26, 2011


guys is her center in side the big convection bubble or to the east of it
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
464. Hurricanes12
8:18 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Rina is close to the Yucatan peninsula. :-o
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.