Rina still a Cat 2, and may have peaked in intensity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:48 PM GMT on October 26, 2011

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There is little change to Category 2 Hurricane Rina, which continues slowly west-northwest at 4 mph towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The most recent hurricane hunter mission was at 3:58 am EDT this morning, and the next aircraft is not due into the storm until this afternoon, so we'll have to rely on satellite estimates of the storm's strength until then. Recent satellite intensity estimates suggest Rina has peaked in intensity, and may have weakened slightly since the last hurricane hunter mission. The eye is no longer visible on visible satellite loops, and the storm has a distinctly lopsided appearance, which are both signs that Rina may be weakening. Recent microwave images (Figure 1) suggest that the southern portion of Rina's eyewall may have a gap in it. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the south. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, but Rina will be leaving a region of high oceanic heat content late tonight, and will not have as much high-energy fuel to sustain itself. Rina has brought sporadic heavy rain squalls to the Yucatan; Cozumel Island airport reported 9.10" of rain yesterday and another 3.25" as of 9 am EDT today. I'm not sure this is correct, since two personal weather stations on the island reported only 1 - 2" of rain over the past two days. The outer rain bands of Rina are visible on Cancun radar and the La Bajada, Cuba radar.

If Rina does make it to Category 3 strength, it would join a very short list of major hurricanes that have occurred this late in the year. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only twelve major hurricanes in Atlantic on October 26 or later. Rina is a medium-small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds that extend out 25 miles from the center. The latest estimates of Rina's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) made yesterday afternoon by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the damage potential of Rina's storm surge at 2.5 on a scale of one to six. This is a relatively low number for a Category 2 hurricane, and means that storm surge damage will be confined to a relatively small area in the right front quadrant of Rina's eyewall. For comparison, the storm surge damage potential for Hurricane Irene when it was a strong tropical storm approaching Long Island, New York on August 28, 2011 was 4.1 on a scale of 1 to 6, since Irene was a huge storm that put vast areas of the ocean into motion.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Hurricane Rina taken at 7:15 am EDT October 26, 2011. Rina appears to only have the northern half of its eyewall intact. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found that Rina had a large elliptical eye with a diameter of 23 - 34 miles with a gap in the south eyewall during their 3:58 am EDT eye penetration this morning. Rapid intensification usually requires a circular eye with no gap in it, and thus I expect only gradual intensification of Rina can occur today. Wind shear is not expected to increase to the high range until Thursday afternoon, so Rina still has a day and a half to potentially intensify. Given the storm's inability to close off its eyewall so far, I expect that a Category 3 storm is the strongest that we will see. It is more likely that Rina has peaked in strength, and will begin to weaken. On Thursday, Rina will encounter high wind shear associated with upper-level westerly winds associated with the jet stream and a trough of low pressure moving through the Gulf of Mexico. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, and turn Rina more to the northwest by Thursday and northeast on Friday. Cozumel Island off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula appears at the highest risk of receiving a direct hit from Rina; the 5 am EDT Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave the island a 27% chance of receiving hurricane force winds, the highest chance of any land area in the forecast. If Rina hits Mexico, it would most likely be at Category 1 strength, with Category 2 strength also quite possible. NHC is giving Rina a 21% chance of being a Category 3 or stronger hurricane on Thursday afternoon, and I don't expect the storm will be a major hurricane at landfall. The chief threat from Rina is probably its rains; the hurricane is moving slowly and has the capability of dumping 8 - 16 inches of rain over the coastal Yucatan. Western Cuba is also at risk of receiving heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches.

After Rina makes its closest pass by Cozumel, it is uncertain if the storm will be strong enough to fully "feel" the steering influence of the trough, and be swept to the east-northeast into Southwest Florida and the Florida Keys. If Rina makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula and weakens significantly, the storm will likely be too weak to get caught up by the trough and will remain trapped in the Western Caribbean. This is the solution of the latest runs of the ECMWF and HWRF models, with the usually reliable ECMWF model continuing to predict that Rina will dissipate over the Yucatan. However, if Rina grazes the Yucatan and remains strong through Friday, it is more likely to get caught up by the trough and drawn into the Florida Keys or Southwest Florida near Marco Island, as a weakening tropical storm. This is the solution of the latest 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. The latest 2 am EDT runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models are in-between, predicting that Rina will get very close to the Keys on Saturday, but then weaken and sink southwards towards Cuba. There is high degree of uncertainty which set of model runs will be correct, and the threat to Florida depends strongly upon how much of a blow Mexico receives from the hurricane.

97L in the Central Caribbean not expected to develop
A broad region of low pressure in the Central Caribbean south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, (Invest 97L), is moving west at 10 - 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased since yesterday, and is disorganized. The storm is surrounded by a large region of dry air, and this dry air is the main impediment to development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low through Thursday. None of the reliable models are predicting that 97L will develop, and NHC gave 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. NHC is no longer interested enough in 97L to generate computer model forecasts of its track. Heavy rains from 97L should reach Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands by early Friday morning.

There will be a new post on Rina late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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114. Skyepony (Mod)
Highest flight winds on that pass was 82 knots (~ 94.3 mph).
Highest surface winds was 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph).
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39381
Quoting hurricanealley:
I miss the Advisory for Rina, can somebody post it again?


Your kidding right? It was posted like 10 times here. lol ;-)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
.
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I miss the Advisory for Rina, can somebody post it again?
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110. eddye
so let see wat happens and see if south florida is under a warning
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Quoting Skyepony:
Recon made a pass. Not the best stacked but like that trmm showed crazy tight core, quick decent in & out. Doesn't look like they hit it real clean with 17mph in the center..983.4 mb (~ 29.04 inHg) (extrapolated), ~17.8N 85.4W for a center fix.


I can't tell if they missed it, or if there simply isn't an eye of any sort anymore...

I guess we'll have to see what the vortex message says.

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I'm out for the day.....I really don't see any impact to Florida coming.....But the Yucatan might have a nice Storm to deal with....have a good day and NO FIGHTING KIDS!
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Quoting eddye:
tampaspin=disagree with u i expect a strong ts to hit the keys and south fl and so does the nhc post the new map plz forcast map


Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
ECMWF could be right about Rina.
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102. eddye
before they show a tropical storm know they show a hurricane near fl wow big difference guess they think the cold front will be weak
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NHC continues to move the Track further WEST....


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tampaspin=disagree with u i expect a strong ts to hit the keys and south fl and so does the nhc post the new map plz forcast map
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The Florida KEY can PARTY ON this weekend...NO WORRIES from RINA in my honest Opinion.
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so they expect it 2 hit south fl as a strong ts
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95. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon made a pass. Not the best stacked but like that trmm showed crazy tight core, quick decent in & out. Doesn't look like they hit it real clean with 17mph in the center..983.4 mb (~ 29.04 inHg) (extrapolated), ~17.8N 85.4W for a center fix.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39381
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

RINA HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE EYE IS NOT
APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM THE RADARS AT BELIZE
CITY AND ON THE TRMM SATELLITE SUGGEST THE EYEWALL HAS LOST SOME
DEFINITION. WHILE THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER
THAN -80C...THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST 15-20 KT
OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS AND IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO
REACH THE STORM WILL FIND RINA HAS WEAKENED.

THE RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE
RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW
290/4. RINA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD
CAUSE RINA TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
OLD ONE. AFTER 72 HOURS...RINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT
SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO SHEAR
APART...BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN AND THUS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN WEAKEN RINA VERY QUICKLY AND KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT
NEAR YUCATAN...WHILE THE GFDL FORECASTS A STRONGER CYCLONE TO CROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE OTHER MODELS ARE BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND
NOGAPS MODELS. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...IT APPEARS THAT RINA HAS RUN OUT
OF TIME TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH A
FASTER WEAKENING AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW QUICKLY RINA WILL SHEAR APART OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST KEEPS RINA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72
HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 120 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.9N 85.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.5N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 22.0N 87.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1200Z 23.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 23.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 261457
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA NOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED
FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
Member Since: October 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 101
i found winds too 120 mph
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Appears recon missed the center.

This is the highest wind report.

Time: 14:40:30Z
Coordinates: 17.85N 85.2833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 750.8 mb (~ 22.17 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,430 meters (~ 7,972 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 992.1 mb (~ 29.30 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 161° at 76 knots (From the SSE at ~ 87.4 mph)
Air Temp: 14.7°C (~ 58.5°F)
Dew Pt: 14.3°C (~ 57.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 82 knots (~ 94.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
The EYEWALL is about to become completely exposed from shear coming from the EAST...
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where the 11.00 update
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87. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39381
000
WTNT43 KNHC 260845
TCDAT3

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT THERE IS GREAT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE RINA WILL BE LOCATED BY THE WEEKEND.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
I think the NHC will do a copy and paste of the track but I think it should be move north closer or over South coast of Florida.
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not last night this morning
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i disagree with some people here and i also agree with some people so i think this storm is not going to be geting affect by 40 knot shear i think mostly 20
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Quoting eddye:
they found winds to 130 mph on storm2k i see it
That was last night.
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they found winds also 125
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80. Skyepony (Mod)
New TRMM of Rina..Catches the eye. & that hot tower.. I don't think I've ever seen the black go all the way to 5km before..WOW~ that's some crazy heavy rain there.. Click pic to view very large quicktime animation (sorry too awesome not got big here)..not for slow computers.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39381
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
Rina's glory days are over. In fact, anemia should be setting in very quickly. I anticipate a downgrade to a TS later this evening. As these tiny systems rapidly strengthen, they also equally rapidly weaken. And she will begin feeling the full effects of the dry air entrainment, followed by an significant increase in the vertical wind shear. Furthermore, the interaction with the Yucatan will do a number on her structure.

It was fun while it lasted.

Next please...


Gotta almost agree with ya.......the eye is about to be exposed...from Shear...This will cause her to GO WEST YOUNG LADY...
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they found winds to 130 mph on storm2k i see it
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Quoting hurricanealley:



Shh! Its Football season!!!


Maybe for you, but the Birds are coming home for Games 6 & 7. May be rained out tonight, will have to see how much moisture behind cold front. Have Game 7 tix in hand and plan on celebrating Thurs or Fri! Go Cardinals!
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Rina looking very ill this morning.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


A

May not even be that, it will probably just be a stream of training rain over South Florida this weekend. All that dry air has to go somewhere and Rina will run into it soon enough and it will weaken considerably. Just my honest opinion.



B
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Latest Observations from Recon:

Time: 14:35:30Z
Coordinates: 18.05N 84.9833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 752.2 mb (~ 22.21 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,516 meters (~ 8,255 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.3 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 131° at 60 knots (From the SE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 11.9°C* (~ 53.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
Flight level winds up to 63 knots 18.05 lat, 84.98 long (getting pretty close to the center).
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david i disagree sorry but the reason is because there is more moisture then dry air i think it is going 2 between a ts our hurricane
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Quoting eddye:
guys wat u expect it 2 be if it hits fl

a tropical depression

b tropical storm

c cat 1 hurricane

d stronger then a cat 1


A

May not even be that, it will probably just be a stream of training rain over South Florida this weekend. All that dry air has to go somewhere and Rina will run into it soon enough and it will weaken considerably. Just my honest opinion.
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67. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


I read about it but the article didn't do what happened justice.. that is crazy flooding.

eddye~ Strong Tropical storm, maybe a Cat1.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39381
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A Weaker CAne won't feel the Affects of this very weak cold front......She won't be moving NORTH MUCH IMO....If she does not make it to CAT 3 then WESTWARD she goes...and dies on the Yucatan.
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guys wat u expect it 2 be if it hits fl

a tropical depression

b tropical storm

c cat 1 hurricane

d stronger then a cat 1
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