Hurricane Rina a strong category 2

By: Angela Fritz , 9:16 PM GMT on October 25, 2011

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Hurricane Rina is now a strong category 2, and is slowly moving west-northwest toward Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Rina is packing winds of 110 mph and is crawling west at a 3 mph. Cancun radar shows some showers approaching the peninsula. Since this morning, satellite imagery has shown Rina becoming slightly more organized, and outflow has increased on all sides of the hurricane. Rina's eye appeared this afternoon, as well, though clouds continue to obscure it most of the time. Recent satellite images suggest thunderstorm activity is increasing around the eye (Figure 1). At 2pm EDT, wind shear was low (5-10 knots) near the cyclone, which is likely aiding it to intensify, but shear expected to increase over the next couple of days. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission reported maximum surface winds of 108 mph north of the eye using the SMFR surface wind instrument, an observation that was not flagged for poor data quality. If the current satellite imagery and organization of the hurricane is indicative, Rina will probably reach major hurricane status tonight or early tomorrow. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on the way to Rina this evening, and a NOAA-9 Gulfstream is also currently investigating the hurricane and sending back dropsonde information, which will be valuable for model forecasts.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Rina taken around 12:45pm EDT on October 25. Image source: NOAA.

Forecast for Hurricane Rina
The forecast for Rina hasn't changed much since this morning. Some intensification is expected over the next 12 hours, though its slow speed could act to decrease sea surface temperatures around the hurricane, and thus decrease the amount of fuel available for further intensification. This afternoon's computer model runs continue to be somewhat divided on the likely track for the hurricane, although they seem to be coming into agreement that Rina will struggle to maintain its intensity after the land interaction with the Yucatan, as well as the high shear it will encounter in the coming days. The GFS continues to forecast that Rina will remain intact after a brief brush with the Yucatan before turning northeast and heading toward southern Florida. The HWRF model is also predicting a similar outcome. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is sticking to its forecast that Rina will lose organization once it reaches the Peninsula, and instead providing a heavy rain event for Florida in conjunction with the trough of low pressure that is expected to move through later this week.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to continue to move to the west-northwest over the next 12 hours before turning to the north toward the tip of the Yucatan. This initial forecast is in agreement with the GFS and HWRF tracks, though beyond Thursday, the Center is forecasting Rina to decrease in intensity and make a hard right turn toward the Florida Straits. Regardless, people in Belize and especially the Yucatan Peninsula should be prepared for major hurricane conditions, including a storm surge up to 7 feet above normal tide conditions, and rainfall up to 16 inches.

Jeff will be back tomorrow morning with an update.

Angela

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910. BenBIogger
1:59 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Rina looks more like a Cat 1 Hurricane on Rainbow.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
909. alvarig1263
1:57 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
NEW BLOG!!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
908. alvarig1263
1:55 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Recon now 200 miles out from Rina's center.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
907. wunderkidcayman
1:54 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
hey does anyone think that rena is right now starting to pull WNW-NW I an now starting to see the now collapsing eyewall and now I beleve that Rina has Peaked
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9553
906. aspectre
1:53 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
I'd rather have the ibis.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
905. geoexplore99
1:50 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting alvarig1263:


Most likely she will use the moisture from 97L to build more of a shield on here eastern and southeastern side for protection from the dry air. Your north end will still be exposed though.


Thanks...Sorry for my weather ignorance...have 2 tropical storms or hurricanes ever merged, and is that even physically possible?
Member Since: October 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
904. Seflhurricane
1:50 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
the turn to the NW has begun
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
903. 7544
1:50 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
yeap gfdl a bit stronger now right over so fla
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
902. Sfloridacat5
1:50 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
New Blog guys.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4736
901. TampaSpin
1:50 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Its gonna die over the Yucatan.......i still believe that will occur.......there is hardly any front at all coming.....heck we in Tampa have absolutely NO Temp change at all coming over the next several days.

Even the HWRF model now kills it over the Yucatan.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
900. RitaEvac
1:49 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Amarillo, TX forecast

Tonight
Rain showers early in the evening...mixing with and turning over to light snow after midnight. Breezy. Snow accumulation less than 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
899. BenBIogger
1:49 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting geoexplore99:
Question for you tropical experts out there. What happens when 2 tropical storms intersect each other? Will 97L get sucked into Rina?


I'm not a tropical expert nor a Met.

Usually the Dominate feature tends to absorbs the weaker system. Wilma and Alpha (2005) are a very good example.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
898. Neapolitan
1:47 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
For you demented types who just love winter weather, "enjoy" these lovely photos showing the first real blast of the year. The top one shows downtown Breckenridge, Colorado:

Breckenridge

And this is a Wyoming DOT webcam from near Laramie, Wyoming:

Wyoming

No, thanks. SWFL works just fine for me, Rina or not...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
897. alvarig1263
1:46 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting geoexplore99:
Question for you tropical experts out there. What happens when 2 tropical storms intersect each other? Will 97L get sucked into Rina?


Most likely she will use the moisture from 97L to build more of a shield on here eastern and southeastern side for protection from the dry air. Your north end will still be exposed though.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
896. TropicTraveler
1:45 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting BenBIogger:


Good Morning!

Could indeed be grub worms. Thankfully I am well prepared, I have a bag of Scott Grub Control.

Or you could consider the ibis as a "green" form of bug control.....
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 917
895. TampaSpin
1:45 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Seems the NHC track is RIGHT of the MODEL consensus.



Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
894. RitaEvac
1:45 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Amarillo, TX at 44 degrees VS
Rockport, TX at 84 degrees
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
893. shawn26
1:45 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
I meant Crown Weather, not Crown Royal, lol. Too early for that yet.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
892. BenBIogger
1:44 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:


Do you know what happens to ibis if/when they ingest that stuff? Just asking.


No. Though I do know where the white stains on top my neighbors roof is coming from now...
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
891. geoexplore99
1:42 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Question for you tropical experts out there. What happens when 2 tropical storms intersect each other? Will 97L get sucked into Rina?
Member Since: October 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
890. alvarig1263
1:42 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
NOGAPS has stuck to a Mexico landfall and dissipation over Mexico for the past 3-4 days. Now all of a sudden their saying it's gonna hit FL.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
889. Chicklit
1:41 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting BenBIogger:


Good Morning!

Could indeed be grub worms. Thankfully I am well prepared, I have a bag of Scott Grub Control.


Do you know what happens to ibis if/when they ingest that stuff? Just asking.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11035
888. alvarig1263
1:39 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting usa777:


Could you get me the ###.. I have a few questions for them as well..lol


305-229-4404

lol
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
887. Chicklit
1:39 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting seflagamma:


rofl, don't want to alarm you but my husband goes crazy
when he sees a lot of Ibis in our grass pecking away....

that usually means your lawn is infested with cinch bugs or grub worms!

You may want to check that out!

Hi everyone, good morning to you.


Hi Gamma,
He should be grateful...do you have any idea what it would cost to have 20 ibis flown in to take care of a cinch bug/grub worm problem?!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11035
886. shawn26
1:39 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Anyone read the latest from Crown Royal this morning? They like the idea of the GFDL the most. It is funny that the GFDL actually has it restrengthening again just before it somes to SWFL because of the heat content in that area.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
885. BenBIogger
1:33 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting seflagamma:


rofl, don't want to alarm you but my husband goes crazy
when he sees a lot of Ibis in our grass pecking away....

that usually means your lawn is infested with cinch bugs or grub worms!

You may want to check that out!

Hi everyone, good morning to you.


Good Morning!

Could indeed be grub worms. Thankfully I am well prepared, I have a bag of Scott Grub Control.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
884. RescueAFR
1:33 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting seflagamma:


rofl, don't want to alarm you but my husband goes crazy
when he sees a lot of Ibis in our grass pecking away....

that usually means your lawn is infested with cinch bugs or grub worms!

You may want to check that out!

Hi everyone, good morning to you.
I second that.. 80 new pieces of sod..lol
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
883. usa777
1:30 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting eddye:
i just called the national hurricane center and they told me they think she will clip mexico and come towards the keys and south fl as a catgory 1


Could you get me the ###.. I have a few questions for them as well..lol
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
881. eddye
1:25 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
yes starbuck
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
879. starbuck02
1:24 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting eddye:
i just called the national hurricane center and they told me they think she will clip mexico and come towards the keys and south fl as a catgory 1


You called the NHC.....and they took the time to tell you that? lol
Member Since: April 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
878. seflagamma
1:24 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting BenBIogger:
Woke up to a very nice sight this morning, 20-30 ibis in my backyard...


rofl, don't want to alarm you but my husband goes crazy
when he sees a lot of Ibis in our grass pecking away....

that usually means your lawn is infested with cinch bugs or grub worms!

You may want to check that out!

Hi everyone, good morning to you.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
877. BenBIogger
1:23 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting niederwaldboy:

upwelling the cooler water??


Doubt it. The likely cause was some dry air which was entrained from the SW side of Rina. Now if 97L moisture is able to reach Rina by tonight, expect for some deeper convection to develop over Rina.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
876. eddye
1:20 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
i just called the national hurricane center and they told me they think she will clip mexico and come towards the keys and south fl as a catgory 1
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
875. stillwaiting
1:20 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
a weakend tc after a yucatan landfall,being pushed to the east,the thing is this front imo is not going to be a s strong as forecast imo and may even stall over sfl,i think we're in for a suprise or 2 ,what a weaker front may do is what happend with wilma actually drew her into swfl,not that it'll happen just find it interesting that my local forecasts only drops our temps maybe 5*!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
874. Neapolitan
1:19 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
This is only tangentially related to the tropics, but it is weather, and I think some will find it interesting.

I ran across a couple of videos yesterday showing a phenomenon known as "crown flash". I've witnessed it a few times in the pileus cap atop immature and quickly-growing thunderstorms, but always assumed it to be caused by the shock waves from high-altitude lightning flashes. But it's apparently a little more complex than that: it's caused by the refraction of sunlight through ice crystals that slowly align themselves as an electrical charge builds up in the parent cumulonimbus, then quickly re-align as lightning flashes, releasing the charge. The whole things is is explained pretty well here (also here (in Portugese, so you'll need to translate it). (Also here at the Big Astronomy blog)

Here are two videos, the first from Singapore, and the second (lower-quality one) from Maryland:



Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
873. BenBIogger
1:19 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting eddye:
im looking at satelite she still looks good


Look at the MIMIC.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
872. niederwaldboy
1:18 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting eddye:
why because she going nearland

upwelling the cooler water??
Member Since: January 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
870. eddye
1:18 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
im looking at satelite she still looks good
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
869. eddye
1:16 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
why because she going nearland
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
868. BenBIogger
1:16 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting eddye:
lol she not losing her eye


She lost quite a bit of her eye wall.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
867. eddye
1:13 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
lol she not losing her eye
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
866. AussieStorm
1:09 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting BZEJeff:


Anyone know where there's a graphic that would show where this ridge is? Being located on the northern most Caye in Belize, the timing of this right turn for Rina's gonna make a big difference here.

Turn is happening now. Rina is also loosing her eye.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
865. BenBIogger
1:09 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting BZEJeff:


Anyone know where there's a graphic that would show where this ridge is? Being located on the northern most Caye in Belize, the timing of this right turn for Rina's gonna make a big difference here.


Link
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
864. BZEJeff
1:07 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting BenBIogger:
Rina should begin to turn towards the NW in the next 12-24 Hours. The Mid-Level Ridge located over the northern Bahamas, is currently sliding towards the southeast. Expect Rina to slow down a bit later today... JMO


Anyone know where there's a graphic that would show where this ridge is? Being located on the northern most Caye in Belize, the timing of this right turn for Rina's gonna make a big difference here.
Member Since: June 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
863. Nolehead
1:07 PM GMT on October 26, 2011

805. cajunkid11:28 AM GMT on October 26, 2011

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
A lot of BP oil is about to say Hello to the Florida land mass


What makes you think that?


Because 2/3rds of the oil is still at the bottom of the floor...working this stuff since May2010...every front or disturbance has been pushing it right into Gulf Shores and Orange Beach...don't be suprised if Florida does get some...the gulf current is still moving so it is possible...us up here in Bama...we expect to see alot of it...remember people the oil is still there...didn't get eaten up by micro stuff either...whatever our great media hasn't been telling the public...all about the $$$
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1923
862. wunderweatherman123
1:06 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting allancalderini:

this time we have Irene Ophelia Katia and of course Rina
they are 3 majors there if Rina become a major will be 4 one less than 2010
im talking about tropical storm converting to hurricanes. we had 17 only 6 became hurricane usually at least 8 do
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
861. BenBIogger
1:06 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Quoting TropicTraveler:

Excellent! Wish you had a picture.


I wish I had a camera. Would have made a very nice postcard...
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
860. prcane4you
1:04 PM GMT on October 26, 2011
Add Rina to this year list of nothing happened.Reasons for this year weird season...who knows?
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 760

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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