Rina rapidly intensifies into a hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:59 PM GMT on October 24, 2011

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Rina is now a hurricane, just 21 hours after becoming a tropical depression. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft found winds of 75 mph--Category 1 hurricane strength--at 1:40 pm EDT in the north eyewall of Rina, using their SFMR surface wind instrument. Winds at flight level of 5,000 feet peaked at 78 mph, which typically translates to surface winds of 62 mph. On their second pass through the eye at 3:30 pm EDT, the winds were about 5 mph less, but the central pressure had fallen by two millibars, to 989 mb. Visible satellite loops show that Rina now has an eye, and the storm is steadily expanding in size and developing an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the north. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina's southeast side, inhibiting heavy thunderstorm development there. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Rina. An intense thunderstorm with a top that reaches into the stratosphere is visible on the southwest side of the eye. These "hot towers" are commonly seen in hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification.

Rina in historical context
Rina intensified into a hurricane just 21 hours after the first advisory was issued for it as a tropical depression. This is the second fastest such intensification since record keeping began in 1851. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 holds the Atlantic record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours. Rina's formation brings this year's tally of hurricanes to six, which is average for an Atlantic hurricane season. The number of named storms this season is now seventeen, making it the 7th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005, 1933, 1995, 1887, 2010, and 1969 had more named storms. However, 2011 has had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. Only 35% of this year's named storms have made it to hurricane strength, and normally 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for this very unusual occurrence.


Figure 2. Microwave satellite image from 11:39 am EDT October 24, 2011, showing that Rina had a partially complete eyewall, which was open on the east side. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found an elliptical eyewall that had a gap in it during their 3:30 pm eye penetration. The aircraft measured a temperature difference of 6°C between the eye and the region outside the eye, which is difficult to get unless an eyewall is on its way to completion. Rina will need to complete its eyewall if it is to intensify into a major hurricane. Given the fact wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday, Rina has a 2-day period to close off an eyewall and intensify, and it will probably reach Category 3 or Category 4 strength by Wednesday. On Wednesday, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday.

A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased. The latest 8 am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both predict that Rina will pass through the Yucatan Channel on Thursday and make landfall on Friday in the Florida Keys or extreme Southwest Florida, south of Naples. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict a weaker storm, and keep Rina trapped in the Caribbean. I think it is more likely that Rina will pass through the Keys. If Rina does make it to the Keys, it would likely be as a tropical storm, since wind shear, dry air, and possible land interaction with Western Cuba and Mexico would potentially knock down the storm's strength. Heavy rains from Rina should begin affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, and extreme Western Cuba on Wednesday. Rina's intensification into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean during the last half of October bring to mind Hurricane Wilma, which also performed such a feat in 2005. Wilma went on to become a Category 5 monster, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time. I don't think Rina will be another Wilma, even though the ocean temperatures and total heat content are similar to what Wilma experienced. Wilma had nearly ideal upper-level atmospheric conditions with an anticyclone aloft and light wind shear, under 5 knots. Rina is experiencing 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and is also a smaller storm, and is thus more vulnerable to the effects of wind shear and dry air.

97L approaching ABC islands
A broad region of low pressure approaching the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao (Invest 97L), is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today, but the activity is not organized into spiral bands, as is apparent from Curacao radar. 97L is surrounded by a large region of dry air, and this dry air will retard development. 97L is under low wind shear less than 10 knots, and this shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By the time 97L reaches the region between Jamaica and Nicaragua in the Central Caribbean on Thursday or Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression. However, none of the reliable models are predicting that 97L will develop. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. I put the odds higher, at 20%.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



104
NOUS44 KMEG 250156
PNSMEG
ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MO Z113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088 >092-250600-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
856 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

...AURORA BOREALIS VISIBLE ACROSS MIDSOUTH...

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A RED GLOW IN THE NORTHERN SKY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH REGION HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE NORTHERN LIGHTS ARE
CURRENTLY BEING SEEN IN MULTIPLE STATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INCLUDING NORTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE
...AND EASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA.

THIS AURORA IS BEING CAUSED BY A MASSIVE BURST OF SOLAR WINDS
AIMED TOWARD THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

$$
Quoting Skyepony:


Spaceweather has info on it. Any chance friends confused SE with NE..


Thanks! Just was wondering because i'd never seen it before and was confused.
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Quoting SunriseSteeda:



I haven't been down to the Keys (sometimes Key West, sometimes Tavernier for softball tournaments) since around 2005. Back then there would be stretches of 4 lanes including 2 "passing lanes" where the speed limit would briefly go up to 55 so you could get around the trailers and boats. And 4 lanes through some of the bigger keys, and of course the 7-mile-bridge. Still a lot of bottlenecks though, with 80,000 residents (plus any tourists!) scattered throughout the islands.
I'm not sure you all have covered this but this week is the second busiest week of the year in Key West- our big Fantasy Fest celebration which brings in 10's of thousands of tourist. Many are already here
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Quoting Tazmanian:
Rina will have a boy friend soon from 97L



whats sing it


Rina has a boy friend Rina has a boy friend
Rina and Stan? LOL

Looks like he really wants Rina.
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Rina will have a boy friend soon from 97L



whats sing it


Rina has a boy friend Rina has a boy friend
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114041
Quoting GTcooliebai:
All of sudden the sleeping giant known as the Caribbean which to some has been dead this year has blown the cover off the pot and is boiling over.
The Caribbean has been somewhat inactive for the past 3 years. Last significant activity was in 2008.
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Anyone else thinking 97L may steal the show? Closing in fast and SHIPS showing 98kts in 102hrs.

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Arkansas:

Southern aurora

Kentucky:

Southern aurora
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Looks like There won't be any space in the "garage" for 97L... Rina will be there when it arrives....

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I KNEW IT 40% ON 97L YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
All of sudden the sleeping giant known as the Caribbean which to some has been dead this year has blown the cover off the pot and is boiling over.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
That is far south, is it advancing any farther south tonight? I want to see it here in Tampa Bay.

I wish, I'm in the city so the lights interfere with viewing....maybe in a very clear area looking at the northern sky.
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11.4n55.8w, 11.8n56.4w, 12.1n57.6w, 12.1n59.0w, 12.1n60.1w, 12.1n61.4w, 12.1n62.5w have been re-evaluated&altered for Invest97L's_12amGMT_ATCF
11.5n55.9w, 11.8n56.6w, 11.9n57.6w, 11.9n58.8w, 12.0n60.1w, 12.1n61.4w, 12.3n62.8w, 12.5n64.3w are now the most recent positions
Starting 24Oct_12amGMT and ending 25Oct_12amGMT

The 4 line-segments represent Invest97L's westward path

Copy&paste gnd, uvf, 11.9n58.8w-12.0n60.1w, 12.0n60.1w-12.1n61.4w, 12.1n61.4w-12.3n62.8w, 12.3n62.8w-12.5n64.3w, lrv, bon, cur, aua into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 24Oct_6pmGMT
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Anticyclone over 97L?
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Quoting NoNamePub:
Well Said Pettee - and Close enough for me! 

Ditto. :let's hope Rina does not rain on our parade this weekend!
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Nope from Fl border north.
That is far south, is it advancing any farther south tonight? I want to see it here in Tampa Bay.
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I KNEW IT 40% ON 97L YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
Quoting Islandgirl56:
Actually the keys has four lanes in most parts of the highway now and in an evacuation they bring all lanes headed north, I would be worried more about getting a conch to actually leave which encourages others to stay and have a hurricane party too.



I haven't been down to the Keys (sometimes Key West, sometimes Tavernier for softball tournaments) since around 2005. Back then there would be stretches of 4 lanes including 2 "passing lanes" where the speed limit would briefly go up to 55 so you could get around the trailers and boats. And 4 lanes through some of the bigger keys, and of course the 7-mile-bridge. Still a lot of bottlenecks though, with 80,000 residents (plus any tourists!) scattered throughout the islands.
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Quoting yqt1001:
Newest microwave image.



she needs to build her inner core very strong for the possibly rough trip that lies ahead
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Quoting YouCaneDoIt:
Hey Taz, what do you think the odds are of Rina hitting South Florida?



50/50 at this time



50% ch it will 50% ch it wont
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114041
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BONAIRE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

special
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BONAIRE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
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Hey Taz, what do you think the odds are of Rina hitting South Florida?
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Quoting Skyepony:


Spaceweather has info on it. Any chance friends confused SE with NE..

Nope from Fl border north.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Grand Cayman finally in the cone, had this creepy it would come!
That's a very odd track.
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LOL at some of the bloggers tonight, so my local met. Dennis Phillips just said the key to the forecast will be when the system begins to make that turn to the north over the Yucatan and what the intensity will be like, since a stronger storm is likely to move Northeast and a weakened storm would stay in the NW Caribbean. Basically something like that.
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790. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting WxGeekVA:
For some reason my friends near DC said they just saw the Aurora Borealis bright red in the sky to the southeast. Can anyone confirm/ deny this??


Spaceweather has info on it. Any chance friends confused SE with NE..
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
For some reason my friends near DC said they just saw the Aurora Borealis bright red in the sky to the southeast. Can anyone confirm/ deny this??



104
NOUS44 KMEG 250156
PNSMEG
ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MO Z113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088 >092-250600-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
856 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

...AURORA BOREALIS VISIBLE ACROSS MIDSOUTH...

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A RED GLOW IN THE NORTHERN SKY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH REGION HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE NORTHERN LIGHTS ARE
CURRENTLY BEING SEEN IN MULTIPLE STATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INCLUDING NORTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE
...AND EASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA.

THIS AURORA IS BEING CAUSED BY A MASSIVE BURST OF SOLAR WINDS
AIMED TOWARD THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

$$
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
For some reason my friends near DC said they just saw the Aurora Borealis bright red in the sky to the southeast. Can anyone confirm/ deny this??

A major event is occurring with reports as far s as Mobile Al. Ham radio operators are reporting interference. Weatherchannels Facebook has pics as well as newstations across the central and northern US. It's bright red In color which Is also rare.
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Hypothetical question to anyone and all.Let's say that Hurricane Rina stays at her slow current track and that the moisture field from 97L shows up in her vicinity of Rina without a circulation,just a bunch of blobs of convection. What would be the more likely outcome? Rina absorbs the moisture into her? Or even though there is no circulation with 97L,it would still have a negative affect on Hurricane Rina?? Please explain either solution if you know. TIA
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Back again. :D

Surprised to see Rina intensifying to a hurricane. Hopefully she'll not be a repeat of Wilma and highly doubt it'll happen.
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Will check in tomorrow morning. Gnite.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting kipperedherring:
Taz, is it too early to tell if Rina will affect the UK?




are you some kind of joker or some in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114041
If anyone wants my thoughts on Rina, I just wrote a blog on her.

I'll probably be back in a little while, after I exercise.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
btw C-130 is in the air


Two and a half to three hours out before we get any data near the system. I won't be waiting up for that
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Well, I'm not surprised Rina made it to cat 1 status. She looked so good last night before I went to bed. Rina made it to hurricane status in 21hrs, but that will get rounded up to 24hrs in the final data base. What were the other 6 storms that went from TD to H1 in 24hrs?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
You do realize that for the Caymans to be hit directly by this NHC forecast it requires a rebondo shot off Cancun followed by a Chula! bouncing off the Isle Of Youth 5 days from now....don't you? There's little to no probability that this cyclone is going to head directly for you at this point. jmo

really the NHC probs say differently they say Grand Cayman is in the 30% range so get ya info before ya go to yap
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
97L is looking very good tonight and heading off to the WNW fairly briskly.

The GFS had a solution several days ago where the two systems merged in the NW Caribbean.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
For some reason my friends near DC said they just saw the Aurora Borealis bright red in the sky to the southeast. Can anyone confirm/ deny this??
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Well Said Pettee - and Close enough for me! 
Quoting Pettee:
WE can settle the keys debat. Stock Island through big coppit is 2 lanes each direction. then single lane to big pinem, which is 2 lanes again, back to single until Marathon. Marathon is 2 lanes until just north of Hawks Cay.

I believe that there are 2 lanes in Tavernier, Islamorada and Key Largo.

And some will leave, a lot would stay. Work requires me to stay - so I do.

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btw C-130 is in the air
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
Quoting kipperedherring:
Forget the GFDL, what do you think Taz?




youare so vary annyouing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114041
Um, you guys do realize all of the models are well within the cone, right? A Florida run would only be slightly to the NE of the "center" of the 5 day cone, which is not actually a predicted position, just the center of the cone.

For a bunch of people who do this as a hobby there's alot of cracking on NHC under goofy permises.
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This PDF from last summer lists the lane widths for US 1 in the Keys, along with maximum flow rates under an evacuation.

Now you know...
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Well, I've seen the 11 p.m., so I'm going to head to bed. I wouldn't be surprised to see a cat 2 Rina in the a.m.

Meanwhile, good night to all...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
No Need for name calling - 
US-1 even in times of evacuation is NOT 4 lanes - 
There are a few section especially north of marathon - but MOST of the Southern Keys is a 2 lane road.

I am well versed in the Key's Hurricane Evacuation plans - But thank you for your concern.  

http://www.floridahurricane.net/
Is a good resource for anyone interested.
aspectre - False infomation is dangerous - People read these blogs who are uninformed.  Someone may be deciding whether or not Fantasy Fest would be a good idea....then read 4 lanes out  - Oh ok Ill go.
Be informed....be safe....don't listen to  "uninformed louts" 
Quoting aspectre:
737 NoNamePub, perhaps ya should provide the correct information insteada actin' like an uninformed lout. Cuz to my knowlege, the Keys' Hurricane Emergency Plan does include turning the main highway into a one-way mainland-bound only evacuation route.

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hey stormpetrol the NHC think that rina will recurve back into the NW Carib that will cause more impacts on us during that time plus at that time we would have 97L(PRE-SEAN) to our SE getting ready to smack us
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
Should the GFS model pan out and that is a big "if" at the moment and Rina does a clock-wise loop then 97L enters the picture and perhaps a fujiwhara takes shape.
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From the 11pm Discussion:

RINA IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT TRAVERSES THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS
FORECAST IS THAT DRY AIR LURKING IN THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEYOND 60 HOURS...THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS
FAVORABLE AS RINA ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR IMPINGES ON THE CIRCULATION. THE CYCLONE COULD
ALSO INTERACT WITH LAND AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN 72-96 HOURS.

by Kimberlain
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very sad how the nhc only uses the GFS... thats very sad considering the logic is a ne movement into the straights or south florida...
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Quoting klew136:

the KEYS DO NOT HAVE TWO LANES BOTH WAYS where have you been driving

The overseas highway is 4 lanes in some sections of the keys
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WE can settle the keys debat. Stock Island through big coppit is 2 lanes each direction. then single lane to big pinem, which is 2 lanes again, back to single until Marathon. Marathon is 2 lanes until just north of Hawks Cay.

I believe that there are 2 lanes in Tavernier, Islamorada and Key Largo.

And some will leave, a lot would stay. Work requires me to stay - so I do.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.