Rina rapidly intensifies into a hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:59 PM GMT on October 24, 2011

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Rina is now a hurricane, just 21 hours after becoming a tropical depression. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft found winds of 75 mph--Category 1 hurricane strength--at 1:40 pm EDT in the north eyewall of Rina, using their SFMR surface wind instrument. Winds at flight level of 5,000 feet peaked at 78 mph, which typically translates to surface winds of 62 mph. On their second pass through the eye at 3:30 pm EDT, the winds were about 5 mph less, but the central pressure had fallen by two millibars, to 989 mb. Visible satellite loops show that Rina now has an eye, and the storm is steadily expanding in size and developing an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the north. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina's southeast side, inhibiting heavy thunderstorm development there. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Rina. An intense thunderstorm with a top that reaches into the stratosphere is visible on the southwest side of the eye. These "hot towers" are commonly seen in hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification.

Rina in historical context
Rina intensified into a hurricane just 21 hours after the first advisory was issued for it as a tropical depression. This is the second fastest such intensification since record keeping began in 1851. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 holds the Atlantic record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours. Rina's formation brings this year's tally of hurricanes to six, which is average for an Atlantic hurricane season. The number of named storms this season is now seventeen, making it the 7th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005, 1933, 1995, 1887, 2010, and 1969 had more named storms. However, 2011 has had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. Only 35% of this year's named storms have made it to hurricane strength, and normally 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for this very unusual occurrence.


Figure 2. Microwave satellite image from 11:39 am EDT October 24, 2011, showing that Rina had a partially complete eyewall, which was open on the east side. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found an elliptical eyewall that had a gap in it during their 3:30 pm eye penetration. The aircraft measured a temperature difference of 6°C between the eye and the region outside the eye, which is difficult to get unless an eyewall is on its way to completion. Rina will need to complete its eyewall if it is to intensify into a major hurricane. Given the fact wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday, Rina has a 2-day period to close off an eyewall and intensify, and it will probably reach Category 3 or Category 4 strength by Wednesday. On Wednesday, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday.

A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased. The latest 8 am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both predict that Rina will pass through the Yucatan Channel on Thursday and make landfall on Friday in the Florida Keys or extreme Southwest Florida, south of Naples. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict a weaker storm, and keep Rina trapped in the Caribbean. I think it is more likely that Rina will pass through the Keys. If Rina does make it to the Keys, it would likely be as a tropical storm, since wind shear, dry air, and possible land interaction with Western Cuba and Mexico would potentially knock down the storm's strength. Heavy rains from Rina should begin affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, and extreme Western Cuba on Wednesday. Rina's intensification into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean during the last half of October bring to mind Hurricane Wilma, which also performed such a feat in 2005. Wilma went on to become a Category 5 monster, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time. I don't think Rina will be another Wilma, even though the ocean temperatures and total heat content are similar to what Wilma experienced. Wilma had nearly ideal upper-level atmospheric conditions with an anticyclone aloft and light wind shear, under 5 knots. Rina is experiencing 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and is also a smaller storm, and is thus more vulnerable to the effects of wind shear and dry air.

97L approaching ABC islands
A broad region of low pressure approaching the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao (Invest 97L), is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today, but the activity is not organized into spiral bands, as is apparent from Curacao radar. 97L is surrounded by a large region of dry air, and this dry air will retard development. 97L is under low wind shear less than 10 knots, and this shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By the time 97L reaches the region between Jamaica and Nicaragua in the Central Caribbean on Thursday or Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression. However, none of the reliable models are predicting that 97L will develop. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. I put the odds higher, at 20%.

Jeff Masters

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864. Skyepony (Mod)
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863. Skyepony (Mod)
For Rina AEMI is showing skill 1.7 28.1 44.4 39.0 (nm error 0hr, 24hr, etc). That has been favoring the hard recurve, then running south of Cuba from west to east. I've been thinking somewhere between there & SFL for a few days. Hope the Caymans are prepared.
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This stuff is a rush....but I respect the power of it and loathe its destruction.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Tropical models already are being run on 97L. Some intensity models intensify it into a hurricane...and then cause an interesting interaction with Rina. We'll see how it pans out. Sure will be interesting, though.
That would be pretty cool, you will surely keep us up to date with the nice graphics you put up?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
double xx

Cosmic
Been using this site since 2001 for weather info. Been going down hill for a long time.
Jesse
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Quoting AllStar17:


Tropical models already are being run on 97L. Some intensity models intensify it into a hurricane...and then cause an interesting interaction with Rina. We'll see how it pans out. Sure will be interesting, though.



I know the BAMMS never ceased however, the GFDL, HWRF, TVCN Etc... are what I was referring too. I've been watching 97L all day anticipating this.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
Quoting KeyWestwx:
I'm not sure you all have covered this but this week is the second busiest week of the year in Key West- our big Fantasy Fest celebration which brings in 10's of thousands of tourist. Many are already here


I last went 6 years ago last week, to Tavernier. Our tournament was originally the weekend Katrina hit us in Broward and was rescheduled for the week before Wilma. Still big piles of seaweed and such in foul terrority (the two fields are on the atlantic coast). I think that was one of the keys where the storm surge crossed basins, overland ;)

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The Caribbean is lighting up like the peak of hurricane season! 97L is moving at a good clip and Rina seems to be waiting for a date with future Sean. This looks to be getting more interesting by the hour!
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


@ 40% we'll see the tropical models started again. Really could be an interesting weekend.


Tropical models already are being run on 97L. Some intensity models intensify it into a hurricane...and then cause an interesting interaction with Rina. We'll see how it pans out. Sure will be interesting, though.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
boy I tell you the HH is gong to have a bussy few day to fly Rina and PRE-Sean(97L) I mean look how bussy it is for rina

mission that is now
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 25/0245Z
D. 16.9N 83.3W
E. 25/0530Z TO 25/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

and the rest
1. TROPICAL STORM RINA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 25/1800Z A. 26/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0418A RINA B. NOAA2 0518A RINA
C. 25/1500Z C. 25/2000Z
D. 17.7N 84.3W D. 17.8N 84.8W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2100Z E. 25/2230Z TO 26/0200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 26/0600Z A. 26/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0618A RINA B. NOAA2 0718A RINA
C. 26/0300Z C. 26/0800Z
D. 17.9N 85.2W D. 18.1N 85.7W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/0900Z E. 26/1030Z TO 26/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
AND A P-3 FLIGHT EVERY 12 HRS.

3. ADDED: REMARK GIV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
RINA DEDARTING 25/1730Z.

so think of this times 2
Hey WUNDERKIDCAYMAN how bout me and you rent a jet and fly into Pre-Sean 97L to take the load off of Recon? I know I know before anyone responds, that would win you a Darwin award :-P
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Quoting Tazmanian:
97L is really geing is act togeter





@ 40% we'll see the tropical models started again. Really could be an interesting weekend.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
Have a great night, everyone!
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97L is really geing is act togeter



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Up to 20 million tons of debris from Japan’s tsunami moving toward Hawaii By Laura Rozen | The Envoy – 12 hrs ago


Debris from Japan's tsunami approaching Hawaii. (KITV/ABC)

Some 5 to 20 million tons of debris--furniture, fishing boats, refrigerators--sucked into the Pacific Ocean in the wake of Japan's March 11 earthquake and tsunami are moving rapidly across the Pacific. Researchers from the University of Hawaii tracking the wreckage estimate it could approach the U.S. West Coast in the next three years, the UK Daily Mail reports.

"We have a rough estimate of 5 to 20 million tons of debris coming from Japan," University of Hawaii researcher Jan Hafner told Hawaii's ABC affiliate KITV.


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000
ABNT20 KNHC 250257
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BONAIRE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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boy I tell you the HH is gong to have a bussy few day to fly Rina and PRE-Sean(97L) I mean look how bussy it is for rina

mission that is now
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 25/0245Z
D. 16.9N 83.3W
E. 25/0530Z TO 25/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

and the rest
1. TROPICAL STORM RINA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0418A RINA
C. 25/1500Z
D. 17.7N 84.3W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 26/0000Z
B. NOAA2 0518A RINA
C. 25/2000Z
D. 17.8N 84.8W
E. 25/2230Z TO 26/0200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0618A RINA
C. 26/0300Z
D. 17.9N 85.2W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 26/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0718A RINA
C. 26/0800Z
D. 18.1N 85.7W
E. 26/1030Z TO 26/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
AND A P-3 FLIGHT EVERY 12 HRS.

3. ADDED: REMARK GIV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
RINA DEDARTING 25/1730Z.

so think of this times 2
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9587
double xx
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Dr. Masters needs to add a "share to Google Plus" button. The earth sciences community is really strong on that site and would enjoy posts like these.
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i love the bad weather
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Quoting JLPR2:


ADT is about to go nuts then. xD



yup
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Quoting kipperedherring:
TAZMANIAC! What did you do with Stan?



sorry but you are now on my Ignore
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Anyone have an answer to 787? Is this known as fujiwara and can 2 named storms actually merge? When did it last happen? Thanks.
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THE LATEST
*Click images to enlarge (images can further be enlarged in Link Window by clicking anywhere on them)

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837. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2011 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 17:11:51 N Lon : 83:16:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 985.1mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.5

Center Temp : -71.5C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE


ADT is about to go nuts then. xD
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This has got to be in response to 97L.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
RECON IS UP


Link
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97L is at the same location OMAR formed in 2008. A few days ago, PR NWS said a deep trough would pull the system Northward across the NE Caribbean...
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oh boy if 97L becomes a cat 4 goes over western cuba and ne into florida it could be a major. western cuba is flat so it wouldnt weaken much but wouldnt stregnthen as ssts north of cuba are 81 degress and less
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2011 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 17:11:51 N Lon : 83:16:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 985.1mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.5

Center Temp : -71.5C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
For some reason my friends near DC said they just saw the Aurora Borealis bright red in the sky to the southeast. Can anyone confirm/ deny this??

The Aurora Borealis has always been know as the Northern Lights. They have been seen as far south as the Bahamas, some 100 years or so ago. You might need to check into this further. They only occur north of you.
Jesse
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Arkansas:

Southern aurora

Kentucky:

Southern aurora


awesome pics!
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True enough the four lanes do not stretch the entire keys however they anticipated a need to evacuate people faster and so widened the road where possible to facilitate this and yes except for emergency vehicles they do head them all north, I lived there for 15 years. Just saying , not looking for a fight guy's




Quoting FLHurricaneHunter:


Actually two lanes in both directions beginning at entrance to Key Largo south to Tavernier Marina approaching Coral Shores High School then merge to one.....hit some two Laners along through Marathon over Seven Mile Bridge. Point is, to say there are no four lanes (2 in both directions) is not entirely true. And recent upgrades to Jew Fish creek bridge and Overseas Hey should prove beneficial in evac, of needed.
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I have a feeling that 97L(pre-sean)will steel the show anyway I say 60% at 2am and 80/90% at 8am 11am TD 19/TS Sean I say the big jumps in numbers cause 97L is getting it self together very very quickly
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9587
Quoting Neapolitan:
Arkansas:

Southern aurora

Kentucky:

Southern aurora
What an absolutely beautiful astronomical phenomenon. o_o
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Quoting MoltenIce:
I thought Stan wasn't retired?



it was Stan is now called Sean for this year name
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

A major event is occurring with reports as far s as Mobile Al. Ham radio operators are reporting interference. Weatherchannels Facebook has pics as well as newstations across the central and northern US. It's bright red In color which Is also rare.


Cloudy skies across a large section of the Upper Midwest :(
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Quoting Tazmanian:



we no longer have Stan
I thought Stan wasn't retired?
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we may soon be talking about Sean
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Quoting Skyepony:
97L really deserves to have a floater pointed at it.




I've never seen one.

Me neither, its on my bucket list.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

really the NHC probs say differently they say Grand Cayman is in the 30% range so get ya info before ya go to yap
FYI.....you're not reading the NHC probability chart correctly. You're looking at the first column number.....which is normally 34 or 50, used to denote the wind speed and the columns after that denote the probability % that the sustained winds will equal or surpass that number at the given location. Look at the link I'm providing you and you'll see that that first column does indeed list the Caymans at 34, same as Orlando, Key West, etc. But the number you really want to look for is the number in ( ) in the last column. That figure is the cumulative total probability for the next 5 days. In the case of Grand Cayman, it's currently 0% for the next 12-24 hours, and currently at all of 3% for the next 5 days(for 50 knots or over winds), with all of those probabilities happening after day 3. By way of comparison, Cozumel is at 82%, Cayman at 3%. This isn't my opinion, it's the NHC.Link
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Just curious about the interaction and the fact that a lot of the models are showing a dive to the south at the end of the run.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
Quoting Neapolitan:
Arkansas:

Southern aurora

Kentucky:

Southern aurora


DANG! that's solid. Wish the Bahamas would get something some northern lights... at 25N ^___^
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1731
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I wish, I'm in the city so the lights interfere with viewing....maybe in a very clear area looking at the northern sky.


I'm in South Florida (Palm Beach Co.) and I saw some glow towards the NW. Can't say for sure if it was related.
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Quoting MoltenIce:
Rina and Stan? LOL

Looks like he really wants Rina.



we no longer have Stan
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815. Skyepony (Mod)
97L really deserves to have a floater pointed at it.


Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Nope from Fl border north.


I've never seen one.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



104
NOUS44 KMEG 250156
PNSMEG
ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MO Z113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088 >092-250600-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
856 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011

...AURORA BOREALIS VISIBLE ACROSS MIDSOUTH...

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A RED GLOW IN THE NORTHERN SKY ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH REGION HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE NORTHERN LIGHTS ARE
CURRENTLY BEING SEEN IN MULTIPLE STATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INCLUDING NORTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE
...AND EASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA.

THIS AURORA IS BEING CAUSED BY A MASSIVE BURST OF SOLAR WINDS
AIMED TOWARD THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

$$
Quoting Skyepony:


Spaceweather has info on it. Any chance friends confused SE with NE..


Thanks! Just was wondering because i'd never seen it before and was confused.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.