Rina rapidly intensifies into a hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:59 PM GMT on October 24, 2011

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Rina is now a hurricane, just 21 hours after becoming a tropical depression. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft found winds of 75 mph--Category 1 hurricane strength--at 1:40 pm EDT in the north eyewall of Rina, using their SFMR surface wind instrument. Winds at flight level of 5,000 feet peaked at 78 mph, which typically translates to surface winds of 62 mph. On their second pass through the eye at 3:30 pm EDT, the winds were about 5 mph less, but the central pressure had fallen by two millibars, to 989 mb. Visible satellite loops show that Rina now has an eye, and the storm is steadily expanding in size and developing an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the north. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina's southeast side, inhibiting heavy thunderstorm development there. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Rina. An intense thunderstorm with a top that reaches into the stratosphere is visible on the southwest side of the eye. These "hot towers" are commonly seen in hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification.

Rina in historical context
Rina intensified into a hurricane just 21 hours after the first advisory was issued for it as a tropical depression. This is the second fastest such intensification since record keeping began in 1851. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 holds the Atlantic record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours. Rina's formation brings this year's tally of hurricanes to six, which is average for an Atlantic hurricane season. The number of named storms this season is now seventeen, making it the 7th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005, 1933, 1995, 1887, 2010, and 1969 had more named storms. However, 2011 has had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. Only 35% of this year's named storms have made it to hurricane strength, and normally 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for this very unusual occurrence.


Figure 2. Microwave satellite image from 11:39 am EDT October 24, 2011, showing that Rina had a partially complete eyewall, which was open on the east side. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found an elliptical eyewall that had a gap in it during their 3:30 pm eye penetration. The aircraft measured a temperature difference of 6°C between the eye and the region outside the eye, which is difficult to get unless an eyewall is on its way to completion. Rina will need to complete its eyewall if it is to intensify into a major hurricane. Given the fact wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday, Rina has a 2-day period to close off an eyewall and intensify, and it will probably reach Category 3 or Category 4 strength by Wednesday. On Wednesday, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday.

A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased. The latest 8 am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both predict that Rina will pass through the Yucatan Channel on Thursday and make landfall on Friday in the Florida Keys or extreme Southwest Florida, south of Naples. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict a weaker storm, and keep Rina trapped in the Caribbean. I think it is more likely that Rina will pass through the Keys. If Rina does make it to the Keys, it would likely be as a tropical storm, since wind shear, dry air, and possible land interaction with Western Cuba and Mexico would potentially knock down the storm's strength. Heavy rains from Rina should begin affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, and extreme Western Cuba on Wednesday. Rina's intensification into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean during the last half of October bring to mind Hurricane Wilma, which also performed such a feat in 2005. Wilma went on to become a Category 5 monster, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time. I don't think Rina will be another Wilma, even though the ocean temperatures and total heat content are similar to what Wilma experienced. Wilma had nearly ideal upper-level atmospheric conditions with an anticyclone aloft and light wind shear, under 5 knots. Rina is experiencing 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and is also a smaller storm, and is thus more vulnerable to the effects of wind shear and dry air.

97L approaching ABC islands
A broad region of low pressure approaching the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao (Invest 97L), is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today, but the activity is not organized into spiral bands, as is apparent from Curacao radar. 97L is surrounded by a large region of dry air, and this dry air will retard development. 97L is under low wind shear less than 10 knots, and this shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By the time 97L reaches the region between Jamaica and Nicaragua in the Central Caribbean on Thursday or Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression. However, none of the reliable models are predicting that 97L will develop. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. I put the odds higher, at 20%.

Jeff Masters

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564. roatangardener
1:00 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, RG.... was wondering how u guys were faring. I guess no rain so far? A lot is going to depend on how much Rina expands overnight, I guess. At least u guys are now in the SW quadrant, which is about as good as it gets with a 'cane...
we've had so much rain in the last 2 weeks really dont need any more at the moment. we had mudslides last week so hopefully not too much rain with rina. i will keep checking during the night just to see how big it gets and if the path stays as forecast. currently breezy and pleasant. and one spectacular sunset today. rg
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 54 Comments: 198
563. ChrisDcat5Storm
1:00 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Rina is generating the coldest cloud tops that we have seen in over 9 hours.




thanks levi do u think she is strenthening atm?
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
562. TampaSpin
1:00 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
The Yucatan is gonna get hit hard from this bugger.....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
561. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:00 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


More like 981 mb tbh.

so this is wrong


110 mph to 943 mb
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
560. stormwatcherCI
1:00 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Quoting hang10z:


I agree, now lets move on...

Taz CAN IT...

if you are going to "speak" please use http://translate.google.com/

so we can understand you..

thanks
You can tell him to stop being the blog police but please DO NOT criticize his spelling or language. Thanks.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
559. Hurricanes101
1:00 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:


987mb.....i would think would be more like 85kts i believe!


from what I have seen a CAT 1 hurricane generally has a pressure between 976mb and 990mb
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7686
558. Clearwater1
12:59 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
People in Lisbon are boarding up as we blog. Per your post and chart. #551
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
557. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:57 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
img src="">
\

that very last frame tells me something
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
556. Chicklit
12:56 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
\

Shear and dry air have negatively affected a lot of systems this year. And nuthin is going to Texas! Wow.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
555. Patrap
12:56 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
554. wpb
12:55 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Yes, and cooler SSTs are a factor as well if it comes far enough north.
thanks
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 573
553. CybrTeddy
12:55 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:


987mb.....i would think would be more like 85kts i believe!


More like 981 mb tbh.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24019
552. BahaHurican
12:54 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Quoting barotropic:


This storm does not appear to be rapidly intens. anything like Wilma.
Doc did post it's got the second-highest RI rate from DB to HU in the ATL.... though the categories are different, it does give Wilma a run RI wise. Please note I'm not trying to say Rina is another Wilma; however, there are some similarities. RI is 1 of them.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
551. Patrap
12:54 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
Quoting Hurricanes101:
\

987mb is right where it should be for a 75mph hurricane


987mb.....i would think would be more like 85kts i believe!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You'll love tomorrow...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241900 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0300 PM EDT MON 24 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-146

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS --REMARK ADDED
1. TROPICAL STORM RINA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 25/1800Z A. 26/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0418A RINA B. NOAA2 0518A RINA
C. 25/1500Z C. 25/2000Z
D. 17.7N 84.3W D. 17.8N 84.8W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2100Z E. 25/2230Z TO 26/0200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 26/0600Z A. 26/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0618A RINA B. NOAA2 0718A RINA
C. 26/0300Z C. 26/0800Z
D. 17.9N 85.2W D. 18.1N 85.7W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/0900Z E. 26/1030Z TO 26/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
AND A P-3 FLIGHT EVERY 12 HRS.

3. ADDED: REMARK GIV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
RINA DEDARTING 25/1730Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK....NEGATIVE.
WVW




RINA sould love that it will make the storm stronger
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Trackwise something like Wilma is possible. Rapid intensification has been happening [also like Wilma]. Whether it'll be as powerful as Wilma at either landfall? Well, that's still to be seen, but most people currently don't expect it.


Just FYI Wilma dropped from 981 to 882 mbar in 24 hours (near 100mb), including a drop of 53 mbar in less than 6 hours. Rita is not approaching a Wilma scenario.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wpb:
levi,
models seem to show a highly sheared cyclone crossing florida?


Yes, and cooler SSTs are a factor as well if it comes far enough north.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


What day this week does that show a Florida landfall?


This is at 114 hours. Get a calculator and figure it out yourself. :)

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting Tazmanian:





what we need is a recon

You'll love tomorrow...


(Click to enlarge)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ClaySFL:


Taz, just stop the blog police thing. It's gotten really annoying and out of hand. You poof people for nothing and you yell at people for nothing. It's time to drop the act.


I agree, now lets move on...
Quoting Tazmanian:




why not you mine your own BEE waxs and go about your own bloging


may be i sould poof you has well for interfearing


Taz CAN IT...

if you are going to "speak" please use http://translate.google.com/

so we can understand you..

thanks
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
541. wpb
levi,
models seem to show a highly sheared cyclone crossing florida?
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 573
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


as up to now it seems that Rina reminds me of Irene because the pressure kept decreasing but the winds didn't increase.
\

987mb is right where it should be for a 75mph hurricane
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7686
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


as up to now it seems that Rina reminds me of Irene because the pressure kept decreasing but the winds didn't increase.

That lag won't last long, and the gap between the relationship between the winds and pressure isn't that big.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


as up to now it seems that Rina reminds me of Irene because the pressure kept decreasing but the winds didn't increase.





what we need is a recon
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Quoting Tazmanian:




yes there is the mb is down too 987mb from 989mb


as up to now it seems that Rina reminds me of Irene because the pressure kept decreasing but the winds didn't increase.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOoks like Dry air slot to the NOrth to me also.

Well, even if it is, Rina is sporting some of the coldest cloud tops we've seen since mid-morning.

Won't take much to get rid of it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BenBIogger:


Dry air might soon effect Rina. Not sure if its a dry slot developing right behind the spiral band.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Doubt it.


LOoks like Dry air slot to the NOrth to me also.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
534. wpb
model track should hold more weight this time wednesday after the gulfstream data gets inputted
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 573
Quoting BahaHurican:
Trackwise something like Wilma is possible. Rapid intensification has been happening [also like Wilma]. Whether it'll be as powerful as Wilma at either landfall? Well, that's still to be seen, but most people currently don't expect it.


This storm does not appear to be rapidly intens. anything like Wilma.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting roatangardener:
rina seems to be enjoying all our warm deep water off the coast of honduras. (which means deep waters) plan to keep an eye on this storm. i know it has slid a little north of us but still..... i was here for mitch. will be checking in here during the night and tomorrow early to see what rina is up to and what all of you make of it. rg
Hey, RG.... was wondering how u guys were faring. I guess no rain so far? A lot is going to depend on how much Rina expands overnight, I guess. At least u guys are now in the SW quadrant, which is about as good as it gets with a 'cane...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting BenBIogger:


Dry air might soon effect Rina. Not sure if its a dry slot developing right behind the spiral band.


Saw that to.
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530. wpb
not much change from 12z to 18z gfdl,hmrf
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 573
Quoting WoodyFL:


Did you notice the GFDL and HWRF and are almost identical on this one this far out?


What day this week does that show a Florida landfall?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11153
Quoting Articuno:

I hate when it's cold and there is nothing to show for it.

Well...you ARE Articuno..so...
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Quoting muddertracker:
Rina's looking good. Is it August or October? She won't pull a Wilma, will she? Sheer/dry air?
Trackwise something like Wilma is possible. Rapid intensification has been happening [also like Wilma]. Whether it'll be as powerful as Wilma at either landfall? Well, that's still to be seen, but most people currently don't expect it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting TampaSpin:



The NAVY keeps it going straight across the Yucatan..

Can you say shore leave? ;)
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
200 posts in 2 hours during primetime(for this blog) with a cyclone that's forecast to intensify and possibly hit some area within the prime demographic? pffft....we did that in 10-20 minutes in years past. That's some lull. Must ne a like a lull-22.
That's called October :)
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The NAVY keeps it going straight across the Yucatan..
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting BenBIogger:


Dry air might soon effect Rina. Not sure if its a dry slot developing right behind the spiral band.

Doubt it.
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Quoting Levi32:
In my opinion this is a great forecast, both track and intensity. She maxes right at the Cat 2/3 threshold and falls to a TS at Florida.



Did you notice the GFDL and HWRF and are almost identical on this one this far out?
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
rina seems to be enjoying all our warm deep water off the coast of honduras. (which means deep waters) plan to keep an eye on this storm. i know it has slid a little north of us but still..... i was here for mitch. will be checking in here during the night and tomorrow early to see what rina is up to and what all of you make of it. rg
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 54 Comments: 198
Quoting kmanislander:


Cold and expanding in aerial covergae. Probably the next leg up in the intensification process.



Dry air might soon effect Rina. Not sure if its a dry slot developing right behind the spiral band.
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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting floridaT:
if Rina aims at key west by Saturday bad news. this week is there biggest week of the year.

Really, try to visualize Monroe County enforcing a mandatory evacuation of Fantasy Fest ... it would be difficult!
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Quoting Levi32:


We only have about an inch of powder right now. We were 3 weeks late for our first snow, despite being cold enough for it.

I hate when it's cold and there is nothing to show for it.
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Quoting JNCali:
Would not want to be on the Caymans right now.. Hope Rina heads North and gets outta your neighborhood soon!

Weather here is tranquil this evening with light winds from the north-east. Rain has backed off since about midday. Deceiving that you can be so close to a hurricane and have relatively normal weather.
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Quoting Articuno:

So how much snow have you gotten? Or is it just cold dry weather?


We only have about an inch of powder right now. We were 3 weeks late for our first snow, despite being cold enough for it.
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Quoting Levi32:
In my opinion this is a great forecast, both track and intensity. She maxes just under Cat 3 and falls to a TS at Florida.

shows some interaction with the yucatan.. i agree with everything although a cat 1 isnt out of the relm of possibilities
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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