Western Caribbean disturbance 96L close to tropical depression status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on October 23, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) has become more organized this morning, and is close to tropical depression status. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon at 2 pm EDT to see if a tropical depression has formed. The system is located just offshore from the Nicaragua/Honduras border, and is bringing heavy rains to northeastern Honduras. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is close to having a well-developed surface circulation, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the west side of the center, due to a large region of dry air to the east. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the east, and these winds are injecting dry air into 96L's east side, keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on that side. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
I expect 96L will be able to organize into a tropical depression later today or on Monday, though this process will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. Steering currents favor a motion to the west-northwest or northwest, and it is likely that heavy rains from 96L will spread over Belize by Tuesday night, when the storm will probably be called Tropical Storm Rina. Heavy rains from the storm will spread over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun, by Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday, 96L will be encountering a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since 96L is a small storm, these hostile conditions should cause the storm to weaken significantly before any potential landfall occurs.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 11°N, 55°W, about 300 hundred miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean on Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression then, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.

Jeff Masters

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1130. HuracanKY
2:17 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol:
I still think that Grand Cayman should be under TS warnings, as I think we will experience TS conditions here within the next 24 hours, JMO


TS force winds only extend 90 miles out from the center at present, and the system is about 190 miles away from us. We won't experience TS force conditions here, assuming it holds to its current projected track.
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1129. alvarig1263
1:54 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
NEW BLOG!!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
1128. ProgressivePulse
1:53 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Spiral bands evident and getting stronger.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1127. hurricanejunky
1:53 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
On this 6 year anniversary of Hurricane Wilma...

REMEMBERING WILMA

HURRICANE WILMA STORIES
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1125. osuwxguynew
1:52 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Interesting to see, as the shear abates, the MLC heading down to align with the LLC. May give the impression of a WSW movement. Won't be long and they'll be right on top of each other.


Agreed, it seems that the southeast shear is easing a bit allowing the the MLC and LLC to become vertically stacked as you say. This would definitely allow her to become a more efficient storm and take advantage of the high ocean heat content.

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1124. Stormchaser2007
1:51 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
FULL IMAGE
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1123. Neapolitan
1:50 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13260
1122. Stormchaser2007
1:50 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting WoodyFL:
Navy model.



lol

That's the NHC forecast track.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1121. WoodyFL
1:50 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
1120. ProgressivePulse
1:49 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Interesting to see, as the shear abates, the MLC heading down to align with the LLC. May give the impression of a WSW movement. Won't be long and they'll be right on top of each other.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1119. WoodyFL
1:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Navy model.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
1118. cchsweatherman
1:48 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
In my opinion, the CIMSS shear analysis is incorrect. Given the outflow to all quadrants except the southeast quadrant, wind shear is not nearly as high as analyzed and is likely around 10 to 15 kts, not the 20 to 30 kts analyzed by the CIMSS.

Also, given the current satellite appearance and the environment the storm is in, it would not surprise me at all to see this become a strong tropical storm at day's end.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
1117. Chicklit
1:47 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting stillwaiting:
,you can say that again,lookat the sheer levels its moving tiwards,im guessing 15-20kts now,increasing to 20-30kts,im wondering if it'll last thru the day!

Track has it pretty much hanging around WCarib over water for a few days, traveling more latitude than longitudinally. So who knows.


HWRF has done well this season, by the way.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
1116. jeffs713
1:47 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
I love reading some of these posts.. 1/3 of them are absolutely sure that Rina will become the next apocolyptocane. 1/3 say that Rina will get shredded soon, and won't last more than a day. The other 1/3 is laughing at the rest, and being cautious.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
1115. Stormchaser2007
1:45 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Recon should find the strength near 50-60mph when they arrive later today.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1114. AussieStorm
1:43 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting gopher1:
rinas death in iminent..its only a matter of time before rina gets ripped apart by the strong shear..to bad this couldnt happen in september we would of had a real serious problem with rina possibly a cat 5..its been like this all season things are just not ripe to support that kind of system..

and your proof is what? I'll give you 5mins to tell me before i add you to my ignore list.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
1113. wunderkidcayman
1:42 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
well look at the overall situation we start the Wessk with a storm and by the looks of 97L we will end the week with a storm here in Grand Cayman Islands
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9549
1112. stillwaiting
1:41 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:
Morning, Wow. Looks like things are getting interesting.
,you can say that again,lookat the sheer levels its moving tiwards,im guessing 15-20kts now,increasing to 20-30kts,im wondering if it'll last thru the day!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1111. gopher1
1:38 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
rinas death in iminent..its only a matter of time before rina gets ripped apart by the strong shear..to bad this couldnt happen in september we would of had a real serious problem with rina possibly a cat 5..its been like this all season things are just not ripe to support that kind of system..
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
1110. ProgressivePulse
1:36 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Rina is quickly becoming a rather healthy looking cyclone.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1109. Chicklit
1:35 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Morning, Wow. Looks like things are getting interesting.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
1108. Saltydogbwi1
1:34 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I really really think that the COC is trully near 17.3N 82.2W thats what I have to say about that at this time


well according to this your close

AL, 18, 2011102412, , BEST, 0, 170N, 826W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 40, 75, 1012, 200, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RINA, M,
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1107. WoodyFL
1:34 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
The HWRF is still the most aggresive model on the intensity

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
1106. tramp96
1:32 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good luck Mate! Knock'em dead.

Good luck buddy. Hope you get it
Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1370
1105. gopher1
1:32 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
40 to 50 mph windshear in the gom right now..only rna can go is nw ..if it tries to move into the se gom it will be ripped to shreds..IMHO..
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
1104. Saltydogbwi1
1:32 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Rina is one healthy looking TS right now outflow in all quads convection building around the center strengthening could be quick in the short term it has to deal with the dryer air eventually if it moves north but right now it looks good
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 330
1103. ProgressivePulse
1:31 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Based on the models, it looks like Rina will be stuck down in the Caribbean.
Local meteorologist said up here in Fl. we don't have anything to worry about from Rina.


He's a moron. The discussion from the Miami NWS tells the story well.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 241250
AFDMFL
ISSUED 716 AM EDT MON OCT 24 201

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SPREAD WITHIN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INCREASES.
DESPITE THEIR NOTABLE DIFFERENCES...THEY ALL DO INDICATE
INCREASING MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
FOR TIMING...THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY
REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND SHOW THE FRONT MOVING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS
DOES BEGIN TO STALL THIS BOUNDARY OVERHEAD WHILE THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT FURTHER PROGRESSING ESE WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
.WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS PERSIST WITHIN THIS PORTION OF
THE PERIOD. INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE WELL SOUTHWEST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1102. AussieStorm
1:29 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

MY S Florida mets are all stating that we have to watch these one "carefully". Unfortunately, in my experience some mets do not want to "scare" the tourists.

Good morning all. Lovely day in Port St. Lucie. Off to a job interview. Cross your fingers and please send positive thoughts my way.

Later.

Good luck Mate! Knock'em dead.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
1101. Neapolitan
1:29 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Rina strengthening nicely:

AL, 18, 2011102412, , BEST, 0, 170N, 826W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 40, 75, 1012, 200, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RINA, M,

...while 97L maintains its status quo:

AL, 97, 2011102412, , BEST, 0, 121N, 624W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 270, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13260
1100. wunderkidcayman
1:28 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
I really really think that the COC is trully near 17.3N 82.2W thats what I have to say about that at this time
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9549
1099. CitikatzSouthFL
1:27 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Based on the models, it looks like Rina will be stuck down in the Caribbean.
Local meteorologist said up here in Fl. we don't have anything to worry about from Rina.

Currently it does look that way, but I'd be afraid to make that statement.

MY S Florida mets are all stating that we have to watch these one "carefully". Unfortunately, in my experience some mets do not want to "scare" the tourists.

Good morning all. Lovely day in Port St. Lucie. Off to a job interview. Cross your fingers and please send positive thoughts my way.

Later.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 414
1098. gopher1
1:26 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
everyone on cozumel need to be prepared for at least a cat 1 hurricane...rina is going to give them a real problem as it stews over them for 48 hours..i really dont think SOUTH FLA has anything to be concerned about with the strong shear thats forecast for later in the week.i think rina dies on the yucatan after a few days....IMO of course..
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1097. GeoffreyWPB
1:26 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
97L...

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1096. kmanhurricaneman
1:24 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
anyway i out see u all later
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1095. Sfloridacat5
1:22 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Ships has 97L up to 101kts @ 120 hrs. Seems this may be one to watch for sure.



Different time of year, but the model tracks match up pretty well with Hurricane Charley.

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1094. kmanhurricaneman
1:22 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
what? no comment?
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
1093. WoodyFL
1:22 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
I agree with most of you that Rina does look better organized in just the past few hourse. It appears that there is much more outflow in the Northwest part of they system than before.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
1092. MahFL
1:21 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Looks to me that Rina is rotating a lot faster than 40 mph....
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1091. kmanhurricaneman
1:17 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Paloma 2008
November 5 18 UTC 13.7N 81.7W -- deg -- mph -- kph 30 mph 45 kph 1004 mb Tropical Depression
November 6 0 UTC 14.2N 82.0W 330 deg 5 mph 9 kph 35 mph 55 kph 1004 mb Tropical Depression
November 6 6 UTC 14.8N 82.1W 350 deg 6 mph 11 kph 40 mph 65 kph 1003 mb Tropical Storm
November 6 12 UTC 15.4N 82.0W 10 deg 6 mph 11 kph 45 mph 75 kph 1000 mb Tropical Storm
November 6 18 UTC 16.1N 81.9W 10 deg 8 mph 12 kph 65 mph 100 kph 994 mb Tropical Storm
November 7 0 UTC 16.8N 81.8W 10 deg 8 mph 12 kph 75 mph 120 kph 987 mb Hurricane - Category 1
November 7 6 UTC 17.4N 81.7W 10 deg 6 mph 11 kph 75 mph 120 kph 985 mb Hurricane - Category 1
November 7 12 UTC 18.0N 81.6W 10 deg 6 mph 11 kph 85 mph 140 kph 979 mb Hurricane - Category 1
November 7 18 UTC
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1090. Sfloridacat5
1:17 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Based on the models, it looks like Rina will be stuck down in the Caribbean.
Local meteorologist said up here in Fl. we don't have anything to worry about from Rina.

Currently it does look that way, but I'd be afraid to make that statement.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4734
1088. AussieStorm
1:15 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
11/6-11/13: If the RMM phase space transitions into RMM phases 3-4 low-frequency atmospheric conditions are projected to become more favorable over the

Atlantic during this period and there is potential for major hurricane development. Due to the time of year, this would be a favorable period for genesis to

occur over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Keep an eye on this period for potentially strong hurricanes. Tropical cyclone activity is expected to be Low

with confidence of 15%. This forecast relies heavily on the evolution MJO and will be adjusted accordingly with time.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
1087. ProgressivePulse
1:14 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Judging by the clustered BAMM tracks for 97L, and the path, looks like it will just follow the western edge of the ridge into a weakness.
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1086. scott39
1:10 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
It looks like the farther N Rina gets away from land interaction, the more she is organizing.
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1085. ProgressivePulse
1:09 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
97L is looking a bit more interesting..



Ships has 97L up to 101kts @ 120 hrs. Seems this may be one to watch for sure.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1084. Saltydogbwi1
1:09 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Power has been off at my end of the island for about 20 minutes now.


my UPS beeped about that same time and the lights dimmed prolly a strike still have power here in spotts though
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1083. Cotillion
1:07 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
It's not even a Paloma type track, let alone it being a little too early for comparisons to a Cat 4.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1082. kmanhurricaneman
1:06 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
remember track paloma if i recall models took it away from cayman ,thats why they took so long to issue warnings remember.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
1081. charlottefl
1:03 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
mmmmmm somebody say "paloma"


I definitely think a more Eastward track is possible. We'll just have to see what kind of influence these 2 shortwaves have...
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1080. wunderkidcayman
1:03 PM GMT on October 24, 2011
Paloma . . .
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9549

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.