Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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377. Seflhurricane
11:51 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:


Ah, but then there would be those who were happy all the time and those who would be sad lol
true
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
376. portcharlotte
11:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
I agree. The whole perecentage thing should never have started. We maybe reading too much into it. it's like splitting hairs. I guess it implies a trend if you want to read into it more. They probably should have left the TWO the way it was.


Quoting FLWaterFront:
LOL!

#324 Says the NHC's forecast odds for the development of a TC within 48 hours will be lowered from the present 50% chance down to 30 or 40 percent.

#328 says that it probably should stay at 50%.

#332 Says they should raise it to 60% odds, and

#333 Argues that it should be or may be upped to as high as 70% chance of a TC forming within 48 hours.

Meanwhile, this percentage is nothing more than an opinion or even a guess that is coming from human beings at a government-sponsored scientific research institute. And if truth be known, they might as well throw darts at a dart board in some cases, this being one of those.

Also, it hardly matters what percentage they give because nature will run its course regardless and no one knows what the correct forecast percentage is. And of course it could all change drastically at the next update anyway, as it often does.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
375. stormpetrol
11:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:
If the NHC pros can have such diverse perspectives of the same system is there hope for tolerance on the blog ?? :-)


Thumbs up on that :)
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
374. kmanislander
11:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I personally can't stand it...I wish that there was ONE person for the Tropical Weather Outlook, and one only (preferably not Avila, LOL).


Ah, but then there would be those who were happy all the time and those who would be sad lol
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373. Seflhurricane
11:49 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:
If the NHC pros can have such diverse perspectives of the same systems is there hope for tolerance on the blog ?? :-)
Kman looks to me that if 96L develops you guys are going to get round 3 of bad weather again maybe watches/warnings if it develops
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
372. KoritheMan
11:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:
If the NHC pros can have such diverse perspectives of the same system is there hope for tolerance on the blog ?? :-)


;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19136
371. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:
If the NHC pros can have such diverse perspectives of the same system is there hope for tolerance on the blog ?? :-)

I personally can't stand it...I wish that there was ONE person for the Tropical Weather Outlook, and one only (preferably not Avila, LOL).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
370. kmanislander
11:47 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
If the NHC pros can have such diverse perspectives of the same system is there hope for tolerance on the blog ?? :-)
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369. portcharlotte
11:45 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
That's how it is..different forecasters either follow the same script or get creative...that's my opinion..Avila was watching the football game and now the new guy looked at weather underground's blog and essentially repeated what has been said here all afternoon. Good Guy...
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368. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:45 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
As I said, a switch in the language.
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367. SouthDadeFish
11:44 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
You can clearly see in this loop how the east side of the circulation is moistening up.

Link
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
366. KoritheMan
11:44 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Despite the decrease in percentage since yesterday, 96L still has all the characteristics to become a hurricane.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19136
365. SouthDadeFish
11:43 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting hurricane23:


It was actually the correct call. System has been dropped by almost all the globals. Florida threat has really diminished.

By the way new blog looks great! adrian
Thanks Adrian I appreciate it. The threat to Florida does seem lower at this time, but I would say it is too early to be sure about anything yet. I still think this system will develop into a tropical depression, but after that there are a ton of uncertainties.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
364. stormpetrol
11:43 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Surface circulation is better defined than it was 24 hours ago when it was up to 70%, it is supposed to move N, the NW into more favorable conditions, oh well I guess it depends on who is writing the TWO, I really have no argument with 50% though, but I think 60% would have been ok also!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
363. FLWaterFront
11:41 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
LOL!

#324 Says the NHC's forecast odds for the development of a TC within 48 hours will be lowered from the present 50% chance down to 30 or 40 percent.

#328 says that it probably should stay at 50%.

#332 Says they should raise it to 60% odds, and

#333 Argues that it should be or may be upped to as high as 70% chance of a TC forming within 48 hours.

Meanwhile, this percentage is nothing more than an opinion or even a guess that is coming from human beings at a government-sponsored scientific research institute. And if truth be known, they might as well throw darts at a dart board in some cases, this being one of those.

Also, it hardly matters what percentage they give because nature will run its course regardless and no one knows what the correct forecast percentage is. And of course it could all change drastically at the next update anyway, as it often does.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 713
362. kmanislander
11:41 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Wow, big change in the language of the outlook but no surprise to those of us who have been watching this system during the day. Current motion is just E of due N as high pressure over Honduras is serving to block any Western movement by 96L. NHC back to N and NW.

Steering map below shows the high coming down from the GOM across Honduras and points West as a block. Very weak steering where 96L is hence the continued drift to the N.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
361. allancalderini
11:40 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
so we probably are gonna get a td and possible a ts of Rina but what is your thinking in 97l anyone?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
360. GTcooliebai
11:40 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The language is a little bit more agressive.
And this time it's forecaster Kimberlain.
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359. portcharlotte
11:39 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Upcoming conditions are said to be favorable...new forecaster...new language
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358. Tropicsweatherpr
11:39 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
50% it is then.


The language is a little bit more agressive.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
357. GTcooliebai
11:37 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
NHC kept it at 50% and noted that the surface circulation is better defined. Now all it needs is thunderstorms to build around that circulation and it's a go.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
356. portcharlotte
11:37 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUAN/HONDURAN
BORDER...HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY.

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355. RukusBoondocks
11:36 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
95L just did a 3 and out like a bad offense.........
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354. CybrTeddy
11:36 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
50% it is then.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
353. FrankZapper
11:36 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
96 is looking like another in the long line of October fizzes. And to think I was about to stock up on window tape!
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
352. Patrap
11:35 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
20:45 UTC





22:15 UTC




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
351. allancalderini
11:34 PM GMT on October 22, 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUAN/HONDURAN
BORDER...HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Lol people the fact that Avila dropped the % and that NHC cancelled recon today has no influence if the storm will develop or not.


It was actually the correct call. System has been dropped by almost all the globals. Florida threat has really diminished.

By the way new blog looks great! adrian
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Lol people the fact that Avila dropped the % and that NHC cancelled recon today has no influence if the storm will develop or not.


Agree 100%.
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If anyone wants to chim in to discuss about the lack of vertical instability during the 2011 Atlantic season,I made a blog about this important theme.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which is crazy considering they should know by now not to be model worshipers.
very likely it will remain 50%
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'd have kept it at 60, but I'm saying that the NHC will probably go with what the ECMWF and GFS and lower the odds.

Which is crazy considering they should know by now not to be model worshipers.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey google chorm fans google chorm 15 is comeing vary soon
Thanks! I didn't know that! Err, I had no clue.
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am going too say 10 to 40% at the next two
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Quoting stormpetrol:


BTW we're getting too much of a good thing here now , the rain is starting to be just a little too much now, plus more to come! Sorry for those in low lying areas!
I drove thru Spotts Newlands Rd the last hour, about 4 to 6 inches standing water on the road & home yards. A lot of water down Newlands area in general, from that big downpour mid afternoon
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why?

There is no need to lower the percentages. I say keep the odds where they are, or up them to 60%.


I'd have kept it at 60, but I'm saying that the NHC will probably go with what the ECMWF and GFS and lower the odds.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
Avila's percentages puts the next guy on shift in an awkward position. That's the problem with the percentages IMO


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why?

There is no need to lower the percentages. I say keep the odds where they are, or up them to 60%.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
hey google chorm fans google chorm 15 is comeing vary soon
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO.. 40% or even 30% at 8pm, especially if Avila is on duty.


Why?

There is no need to lower the percentages. I say keep the odds where they are, or up them to 60%.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO.. 40% or even 30% at 8pm, especially if Avila is on duty.



I would say it needs to be kept at 50%. No need to raise or lower the chances at this point.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


BTW we're getting too much of a good thing here now , the rain is starting to be just a little too much now, plus more to come! Sorry for those in low lying areas!
I don't have those worries. I live off John McLean Drive in East End. The highest point in Grand Cayman.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Lol people the fact that Avila dropped the % and that NHC cancelled recon today has no influence if the storm will develop or not.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't see why they would drop it any lower if it is finally beginnng to fire convection over the coc. Maybe leave it at 50%.


BTW we're getting too much of a good thing here now , the rain is starting to be just a little too much now, plus more to come! Sorry for those in low lying areas!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Quoting Seflhurricane:
and if avila is in charge tomorrow he would probably cancel recon also

LOL
Quoting tropicfreak:
Don't they sell these all north compasses? I heard the wests went out of stock.

& LOL
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't see why they would drop it any lower if it is finally beginnng to fire convection over the coc. Maybe leave it at 50%.


Actually since 96L been designated , this is actually the first ascat pass you can clearly identify a closed low, also Satellite imagery suggest a defined LLC, its moving just E of due N away from land, shear is low, the area is moistening, this should be given a high chance at least 60%, if not 70% of becoming a TC within 48 hrs IMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
i say 60 looks better than at 2pm IMO
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't see why they would drop it any lower if it is finally beginnng to fire convection over the coc. Maybe leave it at 50%.


I'll give you a hint, the GFS and ECMWF continue to not develop this system. They're really leaning on those two.. and that's probably why they've been dropping in the first place the odds.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
Don't they sell these all north compasses? I heard the wests went out of stock.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't see why they would drop it any lower if it is finally beginnng to fire convection over the coc. Maybe leave it at 50%.
thats what i think
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO.. 40% or even 30% at 8pm, especially if Avila is on duty.

I don't see why they would drop it any lower if it is finally beginnng to fire convection over the coc. Maybe leave it at 50%.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
and if avila is in charge tomorrow he would probably cancel recon also
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.