Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history
A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.
Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.
97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.
Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.
Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.
I'll have a new post on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUAN/HONDURAN
BORDER...HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
22:15 UTC
ABOUT 200 MILES MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUAN/HONDURAN
BORDER...HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY.
The language is a little bit more agressive.
Steering map below shows the high coming down from the GOM across Honduras and points West as a block. Very weak steering where 96L is hence the continued drift to the N.
#324 Says the NHC's forecast odds for the development of a TC within 48 hours will be lowered from the present 50% chance down to 30 or 40 percent.
#328 says that it probably should stay at 50%.
#332 Says they should raise it to 60% odds, and
#333 Argues that it should be or may be upped to as high as 70% chance of a TC forming within 48 hours.
Meanwhile, this percentage is nothing more than an opinion or even a guess that is coming from human beings at a government-sponsored scientific research institute. And if truth be known, they might as well throw darts at a dart board in some cases, this being one of those.
Also, it hardly matters what percentage they give because nature will run its course regardless and no one knows what the correct forecast percentage is. And of course it could all change drastically at the next update anyway, as it often does.
Link
I personally can't stand it...I wish that there was ONE person for the Tropical Weather Outlook, and one only (preferably not Avila, LOL).
;)
Ah, but then there would be those who were happy all the time and those who would be sad lol
Thumbs up on that :)
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT
* AT 644 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEARDEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BEARDEN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
A possibility but lots of time to watch this slow mover.
Indeed. Only fools would turn a blind eye to it at this point.
Then, this blog encompasses >50% of those.
Also, Kimberlain is always very generous with the forecast percentages. I wouldn't get too overly excited yet.
199 Levi32 "Unfortunately he tends to do that to me sometimes as well."
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery... and of agreement. Otherwise there would be no such thing as pithy old sayings such as "A stitch in time saves nine." and "Penny wise, pound foolish."
All of us analyze then synthesize what we are reading&seeing.
If you argue a particularly copacetic&cogent point, it is bound to impress itself upon the reader's mind. Which makes it likely to be repeated either as a quotation or as a paraphrase when that reader posts upon the the same topic.
More likely as a paraphrase: just because an argument is impressive doesn't mean that one can remember the exact wording, or who first posited that argument.
Even in this Internet world, it's difficult to come up with keywords or keyphrases that'll narrow down a Search to a set of results small enough to make it worthwhile to comb through those results to find the original author.
Too far east.
umm nope there it right just looped it again and that it where it it if anything it just could be a tad bit W to about 80.7W
Still too far east.
The question that I have is this.. Do pecan trees grow in the Cayman Islands?
Probably not, so my guess is that the wood is imported from the SE US.
The above is a photo of Todd Kimberlain...he just wrote the latest refreshing TWO.
todd kimberlain..NHC
96L needs a good DMAX. This will most likely be a tropical cyclone 24hrs from now.
Viewing: 351 - 401
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index