Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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This is insane...

HEAT CONTENT 48 52 56 28 11 16 104 105 95 87 85 71 57
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33855
22/2345 UTC 13.5N 81.2W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15483
Quoting 996tt:


Haha, consider using good sentence structure if trying to sound intelligent.
You don't have to write a perfect sentence to be intelligent and this is not English class.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Be careful what you ask for....

Apples need a chill period in order to set buds in the spring. Without this, they will not produce. The chill period takes place while trees are dormant for the winter. Temperatures need to be below 45 degrees Fahrenheit for a set number of hours, depending on the cultivar being grown. For instance, the ever-popular northern apple 'McIntosh' requires 900 hours of temperatures below 45 degrees to set buds for the spring. The Southern variety 'Anna' needs only 200 to 300 hours of chill period. There are apples that need as many as 1,700 chill hours;


Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.....
I will stick with mangoes and bananas. I don't even want the temps to drop too far down in the 60's. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Anti-cyclone pretty well situated right on top of 96L now.








No west movement for now with this.


Interesting divergence formation over it, too.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
422. 996tt
Quoting aspectre:
192 kmanislander "The last paragraph is pretty much a paraphrase of a post I put up on the old blog this morning."
199 Levi32 "Unfortunately he tends to do that to me sometimes as well."

Imitation is the strongest form of flattery... and agreement. Otherwise there would be no such thing as pithy old sayings such as "A stitch in time saves nine." and "Penny-wise, pound-foolish."
All of us analyze then synthesize what we are reading&seeing.
If you argue a particularly copacetic&cogent point, it is bound to impress itself upon the reader's mind. Which makes it likely to be repeated either as a quotation or as a paraphrase when that reader posts upon the the same topic.
More likely as a paraphrase: just because an argument is impressive doesn't mean that one can remember the exact wording, or who first posited that argument.
Even in this Internet world, it's difficult to come up with a keyword or keyphrase that'll narrow down a Search to a set of results small enough to make it worthwhile to comb through those results to find the original author.


Haha, consider using good sentence structure if trying to sound intelligent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I once saw an apple tree growing in this part of Florida. But it is an extreme rarity.

This one was small and was growing in a shaded area right next to a house. Must have required a ton of topsoil as well. Too much sand in the Florida coastal plain soils.

Now so as not to make this totally off-topic, I think Rina will form tomorrow, move to the N at less than 5mph for a day and a half, then gradually turn W and eventually move on land as a Cat 1 in the southern Yucatan.

After that I think it will become a huge moisture plume that will get entrained in the upper-level wind flow as a trough digs down over the central and lower Mississippi Valley in the US. This will cause yet another big rain event over South Florida and possibly Central Florida as well, ahead of the predicted strong cold front, which will clear the SE US coast in about 168 hours.

Now that is just my take and nothing more. Enjoy those mango trees in the Cayman Islands and the fruit that they provide. My guess is you'll have no major issues with the upcoming Rina there, as I think it will stay a bit to your south.
I hope you are right but I don't really think so. :) My husband planted an apple tree but it only got about a foot tall and then died.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
...The fruit trees are tropical. Can't even grow an apple tree here. Too hot and I guess the soil is not right either.


Be careful what you ask for....

Apples need a chill period in order to set buds in the spring. Without this, they will not produce. The chill period takes place while trees are dormant for the winter. Temperatures need to be below 45 degrees Fahrenheit for a set number of hours, depending on the cultivar being grown. For instance, the ever-popular northern apple 'McIntosh' requires 900 hours of temperatures below 45 degrees to set buds for the spring. The Southern variety 'Anna' needs only 200 to 300 hours of chill period. There are apples that need as many as 1,700 chill hours;

http://davesgarden.com/guides/articles/view/1685/ #b


Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I really miss Grothar... :(
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33855
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Most things are imported although we do have local meat and ground provisions but not much else. The fruit trees are tropical. Can't even grow an apple tree here. Too hot and I guess the soil is not right either.


I once saw an apple tree growing in this part of Florida. But it is an extreme rarity.

This one was small and was growing in a shaded area right next to a house. Must have required a ton of topsoil as well. Too much sand in the Florida coastal plain soils.

Now so as not to make this totally off-topic, I think Rina will form tomorrow, move to the N at less than 5mph for a day and a half, then gradually turn W and eventually move on land as a Cat 1 in the southern Yucatan.

After that I think it will become a huge moisture plume that will get entrained in the upper-level wind flow as a trough digs down over the central and lower Mississippi Valley in the US. This will cause yet another big rain event over South Florida and possibly Central Florida as well, ahead of the predicted strong cold front, which will clear the SE US coast in about 168 hours.

Now that is just my take and nothing more. Enjoy those mango trees in the Cayman Islands and the fruit that they provide. My guess is you'll have no major issues with the upcoming Rina there, as I think it will stay a bit to your south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
DMax should give it the boost it needs.


I never could get DMax and DMin right. But it looks like it wants to do something tonight. I hope we don't have a "sleeper" with this one. They can fire up fast in that area.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Adjusted circle:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33855
Yup, right where I thought it was.

Note: Circle may be a tad too far east.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33855
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 96, 2011102300, , BEST, 0, 135N, 814W, 25, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Pressure down 2 mb ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Still moving north per 00z Best Track.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15483
Quoting WoodyFL:
Looks like its building cold cloud tops now.

What could this mean????? hmmmm

DMax should give it the boost it needs.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Pressure down another millibar:

AL, 96, 2011102300, , BEST, 0, 135N, 814W, 25, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I imagine the Danish baby backs are imported as well, as are most goods there....and many goods here in the US.
Most things are imported although we do have local meat and ground provisions but not much else. The fruit trees are tropical. Can't even grow an apple tree here. Too hot and I guess the soil is not right either.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Invest 96L's Upper Level Anticyclone is aligning itself with the systems center...This will lessen the easterly wind shear that has been affecting the system slightly today. This, combined with a moistening environment, should allow for 96L to build convection tomorrow, and likely become a tropical depression by tomorrow night.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33855
Looks like its building cold cloud tops now.

What could this mean????? hmmmm

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601


Anti-cyclone pretty well situated right on top of 96L now.








No west movement for now with this.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Tazmanian:




it will take a good 48 too 72hrs

To develop convection?

Highly unlikely.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33855
Quoting FLWaterFront:




The question that I have is this.. Do pecan trees grow in the Cayman Islands?

Probably not, so my guess is that the wood is imported from the SE US.
I imagine the Danish baby backs are imported as well, as are most goods there....and many goods here in the US.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good evening.
96L needs a good DMAX. This will most likely be a tropical cyclone 24hrs from now.




it will take a good 48 too 72hrs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5093 Comments: 115794


Avila...a few years back
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
Quoting FLWaterFront:




The question that I have is this.. Do pecan trees grow in the Cayman Islands?

Probably not, so my guess is that the wood is imported from the SE US.
No, they don't. :)
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Too far east.

My thoughts exactly.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Good evening.
96L needs a good DMAX. This will most likely be a tropical cyclone 24hrs from now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


todd kimberlain..NHC
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
Link

The above is a photo of Todd Kimberlain...he just wrote the latest refreshing TWO.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Let me know when they are almost done. I can be there in 1/2 hour.


Quoting kmanislander:
Well, I have to take a break to throw some Danish baby backs over pecan wood. Back after I give them a working over lol


The question that I have is this.. Do pecan trees grow in the Cayman Islands?

Probably not, so my guess is that the wood is imported from the SE US.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Still too far east.
that is where I see it looking at the ir2 loop I will wait and see what happens to prove other wise
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

umm nope there it right just looped it again and that it where it it if anything it just could be a tad bit W to about 80.7W

Still too far east.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33855
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Too far east.


umm nope there it right just looped it again and that it where it it if anything it just could be a tad bit W to about 80.7W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
looking at shortwave ir (ir2) the LLCOC is currently located at 13.5N 80.5W movement to the NNE

Too far east.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33855
looking at shortwave ir (ir2) the LLCOC is currently located at 13.5N 80.5W movement to the NNE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Well, I have to take a break to throw some Danish baby backs over pecan wood. Back after I give them a working over lol
Let me know when they are almost done. I can be there in 1/2 hour.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Tomorrow should be an interesting day with 96L , everyone have a good and safe night!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8163
192 kmanislander "The last paragraph is pretty much a paraphrase of a post I put up on the old blog this morning."
199 Levi32 "Unfortunately he tends to do that to me sometimes as well."

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery... and of agreement. Otherwise there would be no such thing as pithy old sayings such as "A stitch in time saves nine." and "Penny wise, pound foolish."
All of us analyze then synthesize what we are reading&seeing.
If you argue a particularly copacetic&cogent point, it is bound to impress itself upon the reader's mind. Which makes it likely to be repeated either as a quotation or as a paraphrase when that reader posts upon the the same topic.
More likely as a paraphrase: just because an argument is impressive doesn't mean that one can remember the exact wording, or who first posited that argument.
Even in this Internet world, it's difficult to come up with keywords or keyphrases that'll narrow down a Search to a set of results small enough to make it worthwhile to comb through those results to find the original author.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Pretty soon we'll doing % on who will be issuing the TWOs instead of the actual storms.;)
Also, Kimberlain is always very generous with the forecast percentages. I wouldn't get too overly excited yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
....subjective, convective, conjecture?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Indeed. Only fools would turn a blind eye to it at this point.

Then, this blog encompasses >50% of those.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33855
Quoting stormpetrol:
The fact remains 96L "could potentially" be a very dangerous system in the making!


Indeed. Only fools would turn a blind eye to it at this point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The fact remains 96L "could potentially" be a very dangerous system in the making!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8163
Well, I have to take a break to throw some Danish baby backs over pecan wood. Back after I give them a working over lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The next perecentage forecast will be the following...Hurricane Rina has a 40% chance of an eye forming in the next 24 hours.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Kman looks to me that if 96L develops you guys are going to get round 3 of bad weather again maybe watches/warnings if it develops


A possibility but lots of time to watch this slow mover.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 644 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEARDEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BEARDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33855
Quoting kmanislander:


Ah, but then there would be those who were happy all the time and those who would be sad lol
true
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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