Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 477 - 427

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Quoting Hurricanes101:
96L dissipated?

Did I miss something?


Misunderstanding. pottery was talking about 97L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L dissipated?

Did I miss something?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the San Juan NWS AFD this evening about effects from 97L next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 PM AST SAT OCT 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST. MOST
OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAY`S AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR PR AND USVI
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GFS BRINGING RELATIVELY DRY AIR FOR
SUNDAY...BUT SOME LOCALIZED CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE WEATHER
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF PR/USVI MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...ITS NORTHERN FRINGES WILL AFFECT THE AREA
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

I really hope not.....
97 seems to have pretty well dissipated right now.
Would need to find a bunch of moisture from somewhere if it is going to do anything at all..
I messed up i meant 96L but i'm still surprised that computer models bring 97 L to hurricane status
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

I really hope not.....
97 seems to have pretty well dissipated right now.
Would need to find a bunch of moisture from somewhere if it is going to do anything at all..


Sorry, but it hasn't. Satellite imagery still suggests well-defined cyclonic turning. With upper-level winds forecast to improve, I would expect a resurgence of convection during the next couple of days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10.2n55.6w has been re-evaluated&altered for Invest97L's_12amGMT_ATCF
10.4n55.6w, 10.9n55.7w are now the most recent positions
Starting 22Oct_12amGMT and ending 23Oct_12amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent Invest97L's now northward path
(348.75 is midway between NNW and W)

Copy&paste pmv, 9.7n55.3w-9.8n55.4w, 9.8n55.4w-9.9n55.5w, 9.9n55.5w-10.4n55.6w, 10.4n55.6w-10.9n55.7w, bgi, dom into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 22Oct_6pmGMT)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting belizeit:
I wonder if 97 L will bring us another 20 in of rain as 96L did

I really hope not.....
97 seems to have pretty well dissipated right now.
Would need to find a bunch of moisture from somewhere if it is going to do anything at all..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder if 97 L will bring us another 20 in of rain as 96L did
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Clearwater1:
Something more imediate to track. Another satellite falling to earth, with in the next couple of hours.

The largest piece to make it will be a 1.5 ton mirror, resistant to heat. If that fell in your back yard, that would be 7 years worth of bad luck.

Track it here:


Link

Thanks. Now I'll be mesmerized until the stupid thing crashes. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The hurricane season is oveeerrr!!! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Clearwater1:
Something more imediate to track. Another satellite falling to earth, with in the next couple of hours.

The largest piece to make it will be a 1.5 ton mirror, resistant to heat. If that fell in your back yard, that would be 7 years worth of bad luck.

Track it here:


Link

Thanks for that.
A ton-and-a-half Mirror landing in my yard would probably wake me up.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
Kori, I don't either, but I sense it just like with the last 2 unnamed lows.


Perhaps we're just surprised. It is October, after all. We are not expected to go the entire month without seeing a storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't understand how forecasting is tantamount to wishing.
Kori, I don't either, but I sense it just like with the last 2 unnamed lows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WoodyFL:


I meant in color!! :)






if you look at post 458 it was in color
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115257
Quoting FrankZapper:
I just finished a conference call with my boy, and he said "mark my word 96 is dead in the water". I told him a lot of "enthusiasts" are wishing for one last BIG ONE. He said "good luck and Happy Halloween ".


I don't understand how forecasting is tantamount to wishing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I meant in color!! :)


Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
I just finished a conference call with my boy, and he said "mark my word 96 is dead in the water". I told him a lot of "enthusiasts" are wishing for one last BIG ONE. He said "good luck and Happy Halloween ".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Maybe you ought to follow your own advice?


Hey Doug, good see you! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Something more imediate to track. Another satellite falling to earth, with in the next couple of hours.

The largest piece to make it will be a 1.5 ton mirror, resistant to heat. If that fell in your back yard, that would be 7 years worth of bad luck.

Track it here:


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:


Haha, consider using good sentence structure if you're trying to sound intelligent.





Maybe you ought to follow your own advice?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winds are back up:

AL, 97, 2011102300, , BEST, 0, 109N, 557W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 270, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13580
the mode runs need some food if they had some food then may be they can think better on where 96L will go
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115257
Blog update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not trying to be rude, but I'm glad some of you don't work at the National Hurricane Center.


Word.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Invest96L's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 22Oct_12amGMT and ending 23Oct_12amGMT

The 4 line-segments represent Invest96L's now northward path

Copy&paste siu, ahs, puz, adz, 13.0n80.5w-12.7n80.7w, 12.7n80.7w-12.7n81.2w, 12.7n81.2w-12.9n81.4w, 12.9n81.4w-13.2n81.4w, 13.2n81.4w-13.5n81.4w, pva into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 22Oct_6pmGMT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 996tt:


Haha, consider using good sentence structure if trying to sound intelligent.


Haha, consider using good sentence structure if you're trying to sound intelligent.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you have a close-up of that?
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hebert Box, aye?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's because it is a consensus model...Average of at least 2 of GHMI, EGRI, NGPI, HWFI, GFSI, GFNI, EMXI.

...and because the NHC follow the consensus, and the TVCN is a consensus model, their tracks are always similar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC Track & Intensity Models with description
nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening irg.

Was a Nice time that day and evening.

We were def honored to be invited and to have the chance to meet and chat with some great folks.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128887
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
look guys the models all of them is crap even the TVCN cause we do not have an "offical" defined LLCOC and most likely we will not be able to find that out till morning or midday so hold on give it some time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
I met Avila here in Nov 2009 at a conference the day after QuikSCAT Failed on orbit.


I found him to be Highly intelligent and very personable as I had a conversation with Him and Dr. Ivor van Heerden.

Their Knowledge of Past Storms History was stunning.

The food and drinks were excellent as well.


US-Cuba Conference


I had forgotten about that... I'm still jealous :)

Good evening to you sir.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i meant when we actually get a storm out of this dont kill me plz lol :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting chrisdscane:


guys the TVCN model the the one to watch ya the gfs and all thoose r good but the NHC bases there tracks on the TVCN which is the best hurricane forecasting model




am not sure what your talking about but the TVCN is olny for TD TS and hurricanes its not made for a Inves not that i no of
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115257
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's because it is a consensus model...Average of at least 2 of GHMI, EGRI, NGPI, HWFI, GFSI, GFNI, EMXI.



I know sometimes people worry to much about what most models are doing and not focusing in on what the relaible ones are
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting chrisdscane:


guys the TVCN model the the one to watch ya the gfs and all thoose r good but the NHC bases there tracks on the TVCN which is the best hurricane forecasting model
That's because it is a consensus model...Average of at least 2 of GHMI, EGRI, NGPI, HWFI, GFSI, GFNI, EMXI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
437. Skyepony (Mod)
Average model error for 96L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is insane...

HEAT CONTENT 48 52 56 28 11 16 104 105 95 87 85 71 57
Oh ****.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


guys the TVCN model the the one to watch ya the gfs and all thoose r good but the NHC bases there tracks on the TVCN which is the best hurricane forecasting model
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
422 996tt "Haha, consider using good sentence structure if trying to sound intelligent."

Why would I wanna do that??? I'm aimin' t' be the official village idiot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
432. flsky
Sorry, I'm just testing something - please disregard.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not trying to be rude, but I'm glad some of you don't work at the National Hurricane Center.
thanks lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I met Avila here in Nov 2009 at a conference the day after QuikSCAT Failed on orbit.


I found him to be Highly intelligent and very personable as I had a conversation with Him and Dr. Ivor van Heerden.

Their Knowledge of Past Storms History was stunning.

The food and drinks were excellent as well.


US-Cuba Conference
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128887
I'm not trying to be rude, but I'm glad some of you don't work at the National Hurricane Center.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32355
I say this convection increasing, shear still droping, pressure falling, LLCOC becoming better defined, so 1am upped to 80/90% if D-max goes good maybe TD/TS by 11am 2omrrow however I think future track of this system will have a more N and E track than what is currently forecasted and how strong it get well it just depends on how far N and E it goes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is insane...

HEAT CONTENT 48 52 56 28 11 16 104 105 95 87 85 71 57
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32355

Viewing: 477 - 427

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.