Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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orionoid meteor shower overnight 15 or so a hr,and maybe a sat debris reentry if your lucky!!
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526. Skyepony (Mod)
Couple of possible tornadoes looking like they might pass on the east side of Dallas, TX.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting WoodyFL:


How do you know all these things?
She has a Yoda....
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Quoting Skyepony:


Usually right before sunrise, where the system is, when the air temp is at it's coolest. The cool air of early morning over the warm water is what feeds the convection.

There is also a Diurnal dance. A two day cycle. Once one goes off & makes a bunch of convection overnight, the next day the water is shaded by clous so the next night isn't so spectacular. Causing a noteworthy dmax every other morning.

I'm expecting a better Dmax tonight than lastnight. Not much cloud cover today.


How do you know all these things?
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
.
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522. 7544
Quoting chrisdscane:
when is dmax???



there is no set time it is between sunset and sunrise where the system is located

anytime after 2 am est thats when these things start to pop
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521. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting chrisdscane:
when is dmax???


Usually right before sunrise, where the system is, when the air temp is at it's coolest. The cool air of early morning over the warm water is what feeds the convection.

There is also a Diurnal dance. A two day cycle. Once one goes off & makes a bunch of convection overnight, the next day the water is shaded by clous so the next night isn't so spectacular. Causing a noteworthy dmax every other morning.

I'm expecting a better Dmax tonight than lastnight. Not much cloud cover today.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting chrisdscane:
when is dmax???



there is no set time it is between sunset and sunrise where the system is located
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Quoting WoodyFL:


I'm not an eye guy until I see a big circle. LOL It sure has grown in the last few hours though.


Yes it has.
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when is dmax???
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
The air around 96L definitely seems a lot more moist than just 12 hours ago.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting AussieStorm:

oh no, it could pop out an eye any second/minute/hour/day/week/month/year now. lol


I'm not an eye guy until I see a big circle. LOL It sure has grown in the last few hours though.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
dmax is when 2am right
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Out for now. I leave with my blog update.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Not sure. I have it at 13.5N 81.5W, though.

I'd go a tad farther north, but that's just me...Maybe a hint farther west too.

Anyways, I'm out for the night. Will check in and analyze the system in the morning.

See ya everyone.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
Quoting WoodyFL:
Looks like its building cold cloud tops now.

What could this mean????? hmmmm


oh no, it could pop out an eye any second/minute/hour/day/week/month/year now. lol
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Not sure. I have it at 13.5N 81.5W, though.


TY
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Early models. I think this was done before the current blow up of convection.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting WoodyFL:


Do you know where they have the center approximately? Each place I look has different coordinates.


Not sure. I have it at 13.5N 81.5W, though.
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507. ackee
Quoting Skyepony:
Nogaps has outperformed the rest on 97L so far.
agree
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506. Skyepony (Mod)
Nogaps has outperformed the rest on 97L so far.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting FrankZapper:
I just finished a conference call with my boy, and he said "mark my word 96 is dead in the water". I told him a lot of "enthusiasts" are wishing for one last BIG ONE. He said "good luck and Happy Halloween ".

Who's wishing?????
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Latest ROSAT Update from German Aerospace Center (Oct. 22, 10:45 p.m. EDT):

"On Sunday, 23 October 2011, between 1:45 UTC (3:45 CEST) and 2:15 UTC (4:15 CEST) the german ROentgen SATellite

ROSAT has re-entered Earth's atmosphere. There is currently no confirmation if pieces of debris have reached Earth's surface."
That would make since. Entering the Earth's atmosphere, but maybe not broken up yet. The last one fell apart at about 50 miles or so. I think I'll keep a heads up for a little while longer. You never know.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The circulation seems a bit too small for that, though.


Do you know where they have the center approximately? Each place I look has different coordinates.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Latest ROSAT Update from German Aerospace Center (Oct. 22, 10:45 p.m. EDT):

"On Sunday, 23 October 2011, between 1:45 UTC (3:45 CEST) and 2:15 UTC (4:15 CEST) the german ROentgen SATellite ROSAT has re-entered Earth's atmosphere. There is currently no confirmation if pieces of debris have reached Earth's surface."
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Invest 96L's convective pattern has become a whole lot better organized over the past few hours, and we are no where close to DMAX.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
Quoting KoritheMan:


My bad. I'm saying that the circulation is so small, and is thus not interacting with land too heavily.
Oh ok got you, I went ahead and revised my comment, because I thought that was what you meant.
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498. 7544
96l is getting ready for dmax should be a good one will we see a big red ball after dmax stay tuned imo yes
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
So you think a broader circulation would have more trouble winding up than a smaller circulation because of land interaction?


My bad. I'm saying that the circulation is so small, and is thus not interacting with land too heavily.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The circulation seems a bit too small for that, though.
So you think a broader circulation would have more trouble winding up than a smaller circulation because of land interaction? Or you just think it is far enough away from land for there to be any hindrance?
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495. ackee
DMAX really helping 96L tonight 97L seem like its trying to make a come bk too guess we see what will happen in next 24 hours
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah that's what I'm tracking it's now east of Argentina.


That's the one, it now has now gained alt. 111 miles. lol

Lat 49 south
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Quoting Clearwater1:


I don't think so. I see a chart to the top right of the site that reads alt. 105 miles. Your's tracking ROSAT, right? The lat. is now -30
Yeah that's what I'm tracking it's now east of Argentina.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I think once it gets away from the coast of Nicaragua it should be able to develop further. I think land interaction has been interfering with its ability to wind up.


The circulation seems a bit too small for that, though.
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Quoting WoodyFL:
Is this in color? I can't tell. It looks like it is getting a lots of convection around it.


I think once it gets away from the coast of Nicaragua it should be able to develop further. I think land interaction has been interfering with its ability to wind up.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


It might mean more than seven years of bad luck if it were to fall a bit closer than just the back yard.
Right, if it were to hit a tad closer, you would not have to worry about luck at that point.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Did it crash into the Pacific Ocean because I see an elevation of -21.9 off the coast of Peru?


I don't think so. I see a chart to the top right of the site that reads alt. 105 miles. Your's tracking ROSAT, right? The lat. is now -30
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Quoting WoodyFL:
Is this in color? I can't tell. It looks like it is getting a lots of convection around it.


No this is in IR true color is not available in the night
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Is this in color? I can't tell. It looks like it is getting a lots of convection around it.


Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting Birthmark:

Thanks. Now I'll be mesmerized until the stupid thing crashes. lol


I know what you mean. I sat up watching the last one at a not-so-high-tech site. As I waited for a piece to fall through my roof the site admin. failed to mention it had already fallen in safely into the ocean a few hours earlier. This site however seems on top of it.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


florida

just checked the satellite and there is a nice flare up with 96L already and it still has a long way to go until DMAX
Last year we got the R Storm so if 96L develops we get a chance at the R again .
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Quoting pottery:

Also, we had some west and NNW winds here during the day, which would confirm turning taking place.

I did not mean to say that there was NO chance of development, just that it was not looking likely right now.


It's not overly likely, no, but it certainly warrants watching. Anticyclones can do wonders.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


It might mean more than seven years of bad luck if it were to fall a bit closer than just the back yard.
Did it crash into the Pacific Ocean because I see an elevation of -21.9 off the coast of Peru?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




if you look at post 458 it was in color


I'm color blind Taz, they both look gray to me. Did you notice the little smile sign I posted at the end of the sentence?
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sorry, but it hasn't. Satellite imagery still suggests well-defined cyclonic turning. With upper-level winds forecast to improve, I would expect a resurgence of convection during the next couple of days.

Also, we had some west and NNW winds here during the day, which would confirm turning taking place.

I did not mean to say that there was NO chance of development, just that it was not looking likely right now.
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Something more imediate to track. Another satellite falling to earth, with in the next couple of hours.

The largest piece to make it will be a 1.5 ton mirror, resistant to heat. If that fell in your back yard, that would be 7 years worth of bad luck.

Track it here:


Link


It might mean more than seven years of bad luck if it were to fall a bit closer than just the back yard.
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Quoting belizeit:
Where are you from ?


florida

just checked the satellite and there is a nice flare up with 96L already and it still has a long way to go until DMAX
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
Quoting Hurricanes101:
96L dissipated?

Did I miss something?
Where are you from ?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
96L dissipated?

Did I miss something?


Misunderstanding. pottery was talking about 97L.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.