Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 627 - 577

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sure enough, just as quick as it dropped it, the ECMWF is back onboard with 96L.


I am not understanding why the NHC dropped the chances of development again

If you look, they have changed the percentages on the last 4 TWOs, to me that was not necessary. They should have just kept it around 60% then if they were going to go up and down like this.

To me this looks better than it ever has and we could have a depression when recon flies in today. Unless of course they cancel that too; which would not surprise me
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
96L has a lot of spin, but just can't seem to get convection to build over its center.
But we could have a T.D. on our hands. 96L looks to be pretty wrapped up at the lower levels.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6818
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_late stBW.gif


Pulse look at the shear in the gulf the european developes a moderate ts before those strong winds rip it to shreads. Count on another increase in moisture across sfl later this upcoming week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
A 7.2-magnitude earthquake has struck eastern Turkey, causing buildings to collapse and causing deaths and injuries, officials said.

The quake hit just north-east of the city of Van, where Anatolia news agency said at least 50 people were injured.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting chrisdscane:
any idea what time for the HH?

A. 23/1900Z

3pm eastern, in the storm. take off in an hour and a half
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting chrisdscane:
any idea what time for the HH?

yeah
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 23/1500Z
D. 14.6N 82.5W
E. 23/1830Z TO 23/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
24/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_late stBW.gif
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting chrisdscane:
any idea what time for the HH?

14:00 is there normal time. I am happy to be corrected.

Myanmar flash floods kill more than 100—official

YANGON—More than 100 people were killed in flash floods caused by heavy storms in central Myanmar this week, an official in the military-dominated country said on Sunday.

“So far, 35 dead bodies were found out of 106 missing people. The other 71 people are also believed to have been killed in the floods,” a government official who did not want to be named told AFP.

“We haven’t found their bodies yet and are still searching.”

He added that more than 2,000 houses were swept away by the mass of water that hit four towns in the Magway region on Thursday and Friday, and some 6,000 homes were still flooded.

The official put the estimated damage from the disaster at around $1.7 million.

More than 1,500 people had sought refuge in two shelters in the flood-hit town of Pakokku, he added.

The state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper also mentioned the flood tragedy in its Sunday edition, but kept the toll to three dead and 80 missing.

Roads, bridges, monasteries and other buildings had been damaged by strong winds and heavy rains in the region but the waters had since receded, it added.

Local officials had started distributing relief aid to the flood victims, the paper said, including providing clean water “to avoid (an) outbreak of cholera.”

They were also “engaged in repair works for collapsed bridges and damaged roads,” the report said, adding that vehicular traffic in the affected areas had “returned to normal as floods subsided.”

A monk in Pakokku told AFP on Friday that the water level in a nearby river was believed to have risen to about three meters (10 feet) high after several days of torrential rain.

“Some people, animals, houses and a monastery were swept away when the water rose up,” he said at the time.

Another Pakokku resident, who did not want to give his name, told AFP on Sunday that locals had rallied “to donate water, food and clothes” to those affected by the flash floods.

“The water level is back to normal now,” he said. “Transportation is still difficult as the bridge was destroyed and most telephone lines are still down,” the man added.

Southeast Asia has been battered by particularly severe monsoon rains this year.

According to the United Nations, more than 750 people have been killed across Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and the Philippines.

Thailand has been particularly severely hit, with more than 350 people dead and tens of thousands of families sheltering in evacuation centres.

Flood waters have also reached the northern outskirts of low-lying Bangkok and the capital is anxiously bracing for worse to come as the government said the country’s flood crisis could go on for up to six more weeks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
any idea what time for the HH?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Sure enough, just as quick as it dropped it, the ECMWF is back onboard with 96L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Satellite imagery from the overnight hours and into this morning is showing that thunderstorm activity has become somewhat more concentrated with Invest 96L, which is located about 150 miles to the east-southeast of the Nicaraguan/Honduran border in the southwestern Caribbean. The greatest vorticity is located to the southeast of the deepest convection, however, the best convergence is located right over the deepest thunderstorm activitiy, which is near 15.9 North Latitude and 82.5 West Longitude.

As for current environmental conditions this morning, wind shear values are running from 5 to 10 knots down near where the best vorticity lies to around 20 knots where the deepest convection is located. Given that the environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development and intensification this week, I see no reason why this wont become a tropical depression by late tonight or on Monday and then potentially a tropical storm once we get into Tuesday and Wednesday. The model guidance continues to waffle on how much this will develop and there is frankly very little agreement among the model guidance regarding how much Invest 96L will develop
crownweather
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

isn't that yesterdays map
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


This pass is old, but shows how slow the movement is...

Yes, as stated.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Crown Weather has a very interesting discussion about 96L this morning.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14252
Until 96L gets more convection near the center...not sure if recon will be paying a visit today. It's not going anywhere fast. One thing to note...the slower it moves the less threat it is for S FL and the keys.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


This pass is old, but shows how slow the movement is...

oh ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



isn't that yesterdays map
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


This pass is old, but shows how slow the movement is...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


The 36 hours I gave this on Friday night to become a TD ends this morning. There was no Ascat pass last night but it does look very close to TD status now IMO.
You're cutting this one close Kman...LOL
An interesting Sunday ahead to see what develops for us
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
from TWD

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON
...IF NECESSARY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning. Roatan is currently having some pretty nasty conditions rain all night and now pouring. the winds are steady around 15-20 with higher gusts out of the north at the moment but it keeps shifting. this island is already soaked from tuesday's storm and the previous saturdays storm. flooding, mudslides and trees down. currently no power island wide. please keep me informed if you see this developing and especially where it might be heading. thanks. rg
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Partially exposed but beginning to cover up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting chrisdscane:


um.... yes look on the SE side >.<

You are correct and I corrected what I said. Take a look at the IR2 loop link I posted. Notice the clockwise movement? Anti-cyclone????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WatcherCI:
To much dry air around.

There's dry air, but 96L is still in a moist environment and is moving little.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting kmanislander:
The "center" is easy to see now and convection sufficiently close to it to warrant an upgrade IF there is a closed low.


that just about matches to coordinates from ATCF 14.5 81.0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this should be a TD a storm im not so sure
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Quoting AussieStorm:

um...... no.



um.... yes look on the SE side >.<
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning.

The models are struggling with 96L and are unreliable at this time. Steering remains very weak and a continued slow Northward drift looks to be the scenario for today. An anticyclone now sits right over the center of the system and there is the possibility of a significant increase in development by later today if upper level conditions hold.



Morning Kman, morning all.

Your right about the models as they don't handle very slow movement well. Especially in the case of 96L where the slow movement is days long. Haven't looked yet this morning however, I would assume by looking at satellite the flight for today will be a go. I agree 96L is very close to becoming a depression.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey Kman I have a feeling that this current movement is going to be a little longer that short term prob wouldn't change till maybe reaching 16/17N
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That's all for his morning but will return later.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
Quoting chrisdscane:
center is exposed in the first visible

Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting chrisdscane:
center is exposed in the first visible

On IR2 loop you can see the Anti-cyclone goin g to work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The "center" is easy to see now and convection sufficiently close to it to warrant an upgrade IF there is a closed low.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
center is exposed in the first visible
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Quoting chrisdscane:
t-storms still removed from llc we'll see if this changes today
To much dry air around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hmm I also noticed the convection is now starting to comeover the COC so its pulling away from the coast and movin ENE/NNE as well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
trust me this we be a storm maybe a TD until there are better banding features and convection wraps around the eastern side
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say it again 96L is moving ENE so what does this me well you could expect a Eward shift of the models


More NNE or NE but short term drift motion should not be focussed on IMO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816


shear on the increase
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
I say it again 96L is moving ENE so what does this me well you could expect a Eward shift of the models
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rivers.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting Neapolitan:
The shallow 7.3 earthquake in Turkey (comment #555) has reportedly caused the collapse of many buildings in the large modern city of Van (pop. 600,000), which sits not too many miles from the quake's epicenter. One really has to feel for them, facing the ravages of another quake striking right at the beginning of winter...

There has been a cluster of 10 aftershocks following the 7.2 Quake at Ermisler, 2.73 km (1.70 miles) S of the epicenter. Some as shallow as 2km (1.24 miles).
Here is a good resource website I got off this blog a few days ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whepton3:


everybody seems to generally has some sort of an "S" shaped track to varying degrees and abruptness:



I would discount any track that takes it to the Yucatan at this time.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
Non-tropical low south of Iceland.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682


she talking with dry air in the GOM
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hello what's this behind 97L???



I don't know.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Close ta being a depression.


The 36 hours I gave this on Friday night to become a TD ends this morning. There was no Ascat pass last night but it does look very close to TD status now IMO.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
t-storms still removed from llc we'll see if this changes today
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
97L
Lookin' better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning.

The models are struggling with 96L and are unreliable at this time. Steering remains very weak and a continued slow Northward drift looks to be the scenario for today. An anticyclone now sits right over the center of the system and there is the possibility of a significant increase in development by later today if upper level conditions hold.



everybody seems to generally has some sort of an "S" shaped track to varying degrees and abruptness:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 627 - 577

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.