Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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still say models are crap we need that darn c130 out there now hey how much longer till they take off
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11214
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Which means nothing to us in the Caribbean. Paloma was a Cat4 over the Cayman Islands and weakened to a TD over Eastern Cuba.


Eastern Cuba also has some very high mountains as well
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT data hasn't updated in more than 12hrs.

No...NO!
Seriously, better hope it updates soon.
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674. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't scare us... :(


I try not to let it get to me for the first 48hrs, especially over the weekend.

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Quoting AussieStorm:


Is 96L bigger than TS Marco 2008?


Yes, a lot bigger.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
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Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT data hasn't updated in more than 12hrs.

Don't scare us... :(
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:





Is 96L bigger than TS Marco 2008?

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Quoting TampaSpin:






Below are the BAM Models.......the one going North is the BAMD so the stronger this system gets the more likely it is to go North which is generally the rule with these systems.

All of them sending 96L into Nicaragua/Honduras or the Yucatan are likely wrong.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
668. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT data hasn't updated in more than 12hrs.
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Below are the BAM Models.......the one going North is the BAMD so the stronger this system gets the more likely it is to go North which is generally the rule with these systems.
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666. Skyepony (Mod)
Windsat is mostly a miss this morning.
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Just woke up and saw there was a 7.2m in Turkey. 377k of the population felt IX level of movment and 29k felt X. I cant imagine the ammount of damage this has caused.
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Quoting chrisdscane:


ya i think so if you look at the visible clouds and t-stroms are trying to wrap around we'll see im sticking with my 60mph storm just south of keywest prediction
Which means nothing to us in the Caribbean. Paloma was a Cat4 over the Cayman Islands and weakened to a TD over Eastern Cuba.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:






From Wikipedia:
Less than 2 degrees latitude Very small/midget
2 to 3 degrees of latitude Small
3 to 6 degrees of latitude Medium/Average
6 to 8 degrees of latitude Large
Over 8 degrees of latitude Very large
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Quoting interstatelover7165:

You're Right:
img src=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Li sa_2010-09-24_2200Z.jpg

And:



img src=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/ 0/0e/Hurricane_Paula_2010-10-12_1620Z.jpg



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
Quoting TampaSpin:


They are still running models on 97L so i thought they still have it has an Invest........the GFDL is looking nasty.





The HWRF is also running on Invest 97L

Hmmm...I don't know then.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
It was a good decision to send recon as this is now organizing on a steady pace.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14070
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Looks like a little storm. Reminds me of Midget Hurricanes Lisa and Paula.

You're Right:
img src=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Li sa_2010-09-24_2200Z.jpg

And:



img src=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/ 0/0e/Hurricane_Paula_2010-10-12_1620Z.jpg
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
finally 96L consalidated.. maybe now it can become a td


ya i think so if you look at the visible clouds and t-stroms are trying to wrap around we'll see im sticking with my 60mph storm just south of keywest prediction
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1083
655. ackee
I think ex 97L will start to devlop once it reach the CAENTRAL CARRB would not be suprise if this end up being a TD or TS
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

ATCF hasn't updated since 00Z, and its not on FSU's model page any more.

Link


They are still running models on 97L so i thought they still have it has an Invest........the GFDL is looking nasty.





The HWRF is also running on Invest 97L
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finally 96L consalidated.. maybe now it can become a td
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1370
seems like the ow is trying ot get pulled under IMO if not we'l see if t-storm wrap around it
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1083
Looks like a little storm. Reminds me of Midget Hurricanes Lisa and Paula.
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Anti-cyclone developing could block shear for 96L. Possibly great.... just like Alabamas defense! Roll Tide Roll!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744
649. ackee
question will 96L NE mostion be long term or short live
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

ATCF hasn't updated since 00Z, and its not on FSU's model page any more.

Link


Sorry, maybe you are correct.....i seen it on other sites and just assumed it was.....thanks!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They cancelled recon yesterday a little later than now, I believe.


On todays TCPOD there is any remark of recon canceled as it occured with yesterdays TCPOD.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14070
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
00Z HWRF, very optimistic.
,path maybe,stregth no way!!!,between shear and ladn interaction with cuba,the most fl should see is a slight increase in pops,30-40% for sfl and 20-30% for central fl imo,more fluff for the season....any news on the satellite that came down last night?
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Goodmorning, Tropical Atlantic has a 12 hour average of 96L moving NNE or 23 Degrees at 6mph.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744
Quoting TampaSpin:



X intvest 97L....its an Invest Now i do beleive.

ATCF hasn't updated since 00Z, and its not on FSU's model page any more.

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You haven't seen post 634? You dont have to scream.

They cancelled recon yesterday a little later than now, I believe.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ex-Invest 97L may be something to worry about as we head into the middle of the week. SHIPS analyzed about 20-25 knots of wind shear over 97L, which isn't really conducive for development, but it takes the shear down to under 15 knots by this time tomorrow, and under 10 knots in 36 hours.

In addition, Relative Humidity values are expected to increase over the next 120 hours, becoming really favorable for development by the end of the period (120 hours).

Lastly, TCHP values are relatively low right now (58 as analyzed by SHIPS), and increasing pretty fast, in the 90s by 96 hours.




X intvest 97L....its an Invest Now i do beleive.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ex-Invest 97L may be something to worry about as we head into the middle of the week. SHIPS analyzed about 20-25 knots of wind shear over 97L, which isn't really conducive for development, but it takes the shear down to under 15 knots by this time tomorrow, and under 10 knots in 36 hours.

In addition, Relative Humidity values are expected to increase over the next 120 hours, becoming really favorable for development by the end of the period (120 hours).

Lastly, TCHP values are relatively low right now (58 as analyzed by SHIPS), and increasing pretty fast, in the 90s by 96 hours.



You haven't seen post 634? You dont have to scream.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14070
Invest 96L is now far enough North that even if it does move West it nearly stays over Water NOw.......Shear and conditions are getting more favorable....

Invest 97L is a real Sleeper currently....This could become a Major Cane in my opinion in the Caribbean. Wouldn't that be something in Late October or early November.

These next few days are gonna get rather interesting to say the least.
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Ex-Invest 97L may be something to worry about as we head into the middle of the week. SHIPS analyzed about 20-25 knots of wind shear over 97L, which isn't really conducive for development, but it takes the shear down to under 15 knots by this time tomorrow, and under 10 knots in 36 hours.

In addition, Relative Humidity values are expected to increase over the next 120 hours, becoming really favorable for development by the end of the period (120 hours).

Lastly, TCHP values are relatively low right now (58 as analyzed by SHIPS), and increasing pretty fast, in the 90s by 96 hours.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
623:
You did get it up there. I slept in here and fiddled about on my blog before checking USGS.
Looks bad
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
96L is going to pass over that cell of 100+ TCHP values....

Oh ****
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.


I will scream if they cancel it, because there is a high, HIGH likelihood that we are dealing with a tropical depression right now.

Everybody say 'Aye' if you will scream along with him if they don't.
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96L is going to pass over that cell of 100+ TCHP values....

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
Recon will go this afternoon as there is no remark on the contrary.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT SUN 23 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 24/1445Z
D. 16.6N 82.4W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 25/0245Z
D. 16.9N 83.3W
E. 25/0530Z TO 25/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14070
00Z HWRF, very optimistic.
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Strong shear In the S GOM will be awaiting 96L in the coming days.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Good morning all.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am not understanding why the NHC dropped the chances of development again

If you look, they have changed the percentages on the last 4 TWOs, to me that was not necessary. They should have just kept it around 60% then if they were going to go up and down like this.

To me this looks better than it ever has and we could have a depression when recon flies in today. Unless of course they cancel that too; which would not surprise me

I will scream if they cancel it, because there is a high, HIGH likelihood that we are dealing with a tropical depression right now.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Lookin' a lot better.
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Quoting roatangardener:
morning. Roatan is currently having some pretty nasty conditions rain all night and now pouring. the winds are steady around 15-20 with higher gusts out of the north at the moment but it keeps shifting. this island is already soaked from tuesday's storm and the previous saturdays storm. flooding, mudslides and trees down. currently no power island wide. please keep me informed if you see this developing and especially where it might be heading. thanks. rg

Sounds pretty Dread, there.
Keep Safe.
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the convection is start to cover the COC from the NNW side
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11214
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sure enough, just as quick as it dropped it, the ECMWF is back onboard with 96L.


I am not understanding why the NHC dropped the chances of development again

If you look, they have changed the percentages on the last 4 TWOs, to me that was not necessary. They should have just kept it around 60% then if they were going to go up and down like this.

To me this looks better than it ever has and we could have a depression when recon flies in today. Unless of course they cancel that too; which would not surprise me
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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