Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
96L is a gonner. shear is picking up which was unexpected...

Where do you get that?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32559
Quoting luvtogolf:


To be very near a tropical depression doesn't the system have to have a surface circulation? According to Dr. Masters, there are no signs of a surface circulation.

Well, he was wrong.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32559


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12Z GFS says season cancel. We shall see soon enough.
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Quoting chrisdscane:


ALOT OF C.AMERICA MODELS NOW

yep but alot of them are off cause most of them have 96L moving NW current movement via vis sat loop is NNE-NE
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
000
NOUS42 KNHC 221430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 22 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 23/1500Z
D. 14.6N 82.5W
E. 23/1830Z TO 23/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
24/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/2000Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 22/1205Z
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
While 96L's convective pattern has become slightly less organized since yesterday, its low pressure area has certainly became a lot more defined..I've noticed this season that the low pressure center usually counts more than the convective pattern, so I am going to go out on a limb and say that 96L is very nearly a tropical depression at this time. The NHC will probably keep 60% at the 2PM TWO, or maybe up it slightly to 70% based on the ASCAT pass, but I wish they wouldn't have cancelled recon.

It will be interesting to see if convection develops over the low, or if the low moves towards the convection.



To be very near a tropical depression doesn't the system have to have a surface circulation? According to Dr. Masters, there are no signs of a surface circulation.
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Quoting chrisdscane:


ALOT OF C.AMERICA MODELS NOW


Makes sense...weaker system goes W and is not influenced by trough.
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96L is a gonner. shear is picking up which was unexpected...
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1726
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
While 96L's convective pattern has become slightly less organized since yesterday, its low pressure area has certainly became a lot more defined..I've noticed this season that the low pressure center usually counts more than the convective pattern, so I am going to go out on a limb and say that 96L is very nearly a tropical depression at this time. The NHC will probably keep 60% at the 2PM TWO, or maybe up it slightly to 70% based on the ASCAT pass, but I wish they wouldn't have cancelled recon.

It will be interesting to see if convection develops over the low, or if the low moves towards the convection.



IMO, NHC will remain at 60% on 2 PM TWO because of the ASCAT pass.It would be higher if GFS would have developed at 12z run.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14600


ALOT OF C.AMERICA MODELS NOW
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1181
Climate change deniers thought they had an ally in Richard Muller, a popular physics professor at UC Berkeley.

Muller didn’t reject climate science per se, but he was a skeptic, and a convenient one for big polluters and conservative anti-environmentalists — until Muller put their money where his mouth was, and launched the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, in part with a grant from the Charles G. Koch foundation.

After extensive study, he’s concluded that the existing science was right all along — that the earth’s surface is warming, at an accelerating rate. But instead of second-guessing themselves, his erstwhile allies of convenience are now abandoning him.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

yep you hit the nail on the head and I also noticed that that ball of convection just to the W of that it trying to run to that COC
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
While 96L's convective pattern has become slightly less organized since yesterday, its low pressure area has certainly became a lot more defined..I've noticed this season that the low pressure center usually counts more than the convective pattern, so I am going to go out on a limb and say that 96L is very nearly a tropical depression at this time. The NHC will probably keep 60% at the 2PM TWO, or maybe up it slightly to 70% based on the ASCAT pass, but I wish they wouldn't have cancelled recon.

It will be interesting to see if convection develops over the low, or if the low moves towards the convection.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32559
Fla casting 101

It makes TD where it is.

Moves due N for 23 hours.

Moves NNE for 24. Makss week TS.

Goes in at Big Bend and comes aout at St. Aug

and we get a nice 3-4 inches of rain.

Well a professional "wishcaster" can hope right :)
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60. 7544
hmmm 96l may be getting a spin to it at this hour ?
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32559
Quoting CybrTeddy:


A very disorganized, weak TD. NHC might just bump the odds up again because of that ASCAT pass.. or they might just ignore it and say conditions are becoming less favorable for further development (12z GFS once again failed to develop this system).

Inconsistency from the ECMWF and GFS, which just yesterday where developing hurricanes from 96L.

I don't care what the models say.

This is a very complex situation, and in times like these, especially the way they have performed this season, it is best to just throw them out until we have a better defined steering pattern. Additionally, just because the models don't develop it, that doesn't mean that conditions are becoming further unfavorable.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32559
just looking back at the vis and even better rgb you can see the spin clearly on last few frames location near 13N 81W moving NNE
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
Quoting Neapolitan:

There's a large and growing burst of convection right at the putative CoC. No, it doesn't look like a TS, but it surely could pass for a TD...


A very disorganized, weak TD. NHC might just bump the odds up again because of that ASCAT pass.. or they might just ignore it and say conditions are becoming less favorable for further development (12z GFS once again failed to develop this system).

Inconsistency from the ECMWF and GFS, which just yesterday where developing hurricanes from 96L.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Nice pass looks closed to me!

hey isn't that further N and E than it current atcf location well its understandable considering that the rgb and vis sat shows a LLCOC somewhere near there we just need convection to build over it some more
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
Measurable snow event on the way, if anyone is interested in reading!

I'll be back on in time for the 2 pm TWO
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Quoting robert88:
Visible satellite presentation doesn't look too good imo

There's a large and growing burst of convection right at the putative CoC. No, it doesn't look like a TS, but it surely could pass for a TD...
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The deep convection is pretty far from the center. I don't think that the convection is organized enough for it to be a TC yet.
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Visible satellite presentation doesn't look too good imo
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Nice pass looks closed to me!

As I said...They shouldn't have cancelled recon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32559
According to ASCAT, 96L might have a closed circulation. However, satellite image isn't as impressive.
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48. 7544
agree give it time peeps its only one run they droped it it will be back in future runs imo
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Circulation from the ascat pass looks to be around 13N/81W, should sent recon today IMO.
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As far as I'm concerned 96L is probably 30 mph TD right now, just my take, I've seen them looked worse than this and classified!
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Nice pass looks closed to me!


Appears to be a well defined surface circulation to me.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Nice pass looks closed to me!


Yeah looks closed to me too!
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Nice pass looks closed to me!
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I see it.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Thai PM warns deadly floods to last for weeks
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Since the previous mappingfor 22Oct_12amGMT :
10.0n55.0w, 10.6n55.7w, 11.4n56.3w have been re-evaluated&altered for Invest97L's_12pmGMT_ATCF
9.7n54.8w, 9.6n55.1w, 9.5n55.4w, 9.6n55.6w, 9.8n55.8w are now the most recent positions
Starting 21Oct_6amGMT and ending 22Oct_12pmGMT

The 5 southern line-segments represent Invest97L's path

Copy&paste 9.7n54.5w-9.7n54.8w, 9.7n54.8w-9.6n55.1w, 9.6n55.1w-9.5n55.4w, 9.5n55.4w-9.6n55.6w, 9.6n55.6w-9.8n55.8w, bgi, fdf, dcf into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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Meanwhile in Thailand:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2011/10 /thailand-flooding-death-toll-hits-356.html

Thailand death Toll hits 356, Flooding could last until December

Thailand, reeling from its worst flooding in decades, received more bad news Saturday as the death toll since July rose to 356 and the prime minister warned that the inundation could last an additional six weeks.

...The government raised the death toll to 356 from Friday’s 342 level with another two missing. An estimated 113,000 people have been displaced and are now living in shelters. And the nation has suffered some $3.3 billion in economic damage, a figure that could double if Bangkok is swamped.

Neighboring Myanmar has also suffered at least 100 deaths and Cambodia 247 from its own severe flooding.
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It seems that conditions are getting a little better for the little "bug"(97L), that it might even stand a chance... lets see.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
same thinking as i had said yesterday,into nic/hond,maybe,maybe rememrging off nhond coastlineout of 96l,0,if it goes thru the yucatan channel,it will be destroyed by continental airmass,not expecting much impacts for the us imo


I was trying to make that basic point here on this blog yesterday but I got the feeling that my take on the situation was not particularly popular.

The problem with late season development of tropical cyclones is that every year is different. Even though Caribbean systems are much favored with regard to climatology, this only happens in some years and not in others.

For example, 2005 was an ideal year for late season tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. And in that year we had Wilma, which bombed out massively in the Caribbean, tormented Cancun and Cozumel for three days and then raced northeastward across Florida, remaining a major hurricane all the way through.

But in this year we have seen the development of intangible factors in the atmosphere which appear to be hindering development of tropical cyclones since late last month, so that even though the tangible atmospheric factors remain favorable the storms are struggling to get going and gain strength.

Additionally, we now have very tangible factors in the higher latitudes.. above the Tropic of Cancer.. which are very hostile to tropical systems in general. Wind shear and colder temperatures have invaded that region to an extent that is normally not seen until about a month from now. This means that even if a major storm can form and get going it will encounter big trouble as it moves poleward. Not only are dry air and wind shear profiles significantly present but the SSTs are plunging like a rock already, robbing the marine environment of its usual TCHP.

Nothing is set in stone of course when it comes to tropical development but some interesting trends are definitely beginning to take shape. We understand clearly what some of these trends are but not yet all of them.
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Weather Still Sucks in South Central Texas, LOL. One rain since June, near 90 yesterday and today, well above normal temps. The last 12 months plus have been pretty bad here, next 12 are not sounding great but still praying for a change here. I cannot use any outside water except with a hose that has a turnoff on the end of it.
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Really,the situation at El Salvador has been very bad with many deaths and extensive destruction of homes. See the report from there at link below translated to english.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14600
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Point is, give 96L time. We've had several systems that form out of the SW Caribbean struggle a few days into genesis. Ida, Paula, for example are probably going to be our closet analog systems for development.

I found a relatively nice analogue for the system, although Paula may still be a better example.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32559
It'd be nice to hear Levi or Drak's opinion on the situation.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32559
Point is, give 96L time. We've had several systems that form out of the SW Caribbean struggle a few days into genesis. Ida, Paula, for example are probably going to be our closet analog systems for development.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What about Irene? Ophelia? Katia? Philippe? Maria?


As a general rule, all systems this year have had some problems with dry air, some more than others. The lack of overall instability just lead to storms having problems making hurricane strength.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What about Irene? Ophelia? Katia? Philippe? Maria?


All those hurricanes struggled with dry air, until they reached a nice pocket, and in Ophelia's case, ventilation.
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Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)

GOES-13 WV Image/Loop

..click image for Loop dee Loop


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Quoting robert88:
Mid level dry air and lack of vertical instability = struggling systems.

What about Irene? Ophelia? Katia? Philippe? Maria?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32559

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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