Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 227 - 177

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The circulation is still to the west of the convection.
Nope. The circulation is to the east of the convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
itll be key how far it stays off shore
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1142
blog has slowed alot since midday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


It's late October.
levi will you make a tidbit about the enso and 2012 hurricane season after 2011 season ends?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This certainly doesn't help..
22/1745 UTC 13.0N 81.1W T1.0/1.5 96L -- Atlantic


The circulation is still to the west of the convection.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14226
96L looks very disorganized but the Center looks more defined to me , all we need is a good blowup of convection over the center and we should have a TD soon, what a shame recon did not go in
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This certainly doesn't help..
22/1745 UTC 13.0N 81.1W T1.0/1.5 96L -- Atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
levi I would love if u can breakdown the satelite presentation of 96L for us
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1142
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No surprise. This should cause the NHC to bump the odds back up to red.


but why change the odds so abruptly so many times if they are just going with the model consensus?

If us on the blog know how inconsistent the models can be then why is the NHC moving the chances of development up and down like a roller coaster to fit the model tracks?

What I am trying to say is if they know the models can shift wildly, then why not keep the chances of development the same instead of moving it up and down so much?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
robert88, do you ever post anything that might encourage development? lol, i only see you when a system is dying, or the odds decrease.

IMO, we're one to talk about overusing models most of us, so it would make sense for the NHC to be in swing. However, i don't like the wording they've been using. Yesterday, they made it seem like development was very likely on Sunday, now they make it seem that there is virtually zip chance of development, and this all seems to be because the GFS and ECMWF have dropped it. Its a small system born from a monsoonal circulation, models are confused with it. the latest ASCAT indicates that 96L is probably closed by now, and more organized than the NHC says it is in my opinion. As such, the models are now showing the system missing central america and heading towards the yucatan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11115
Quoting Levi32:


It's late October.

Really? XD

I'm just playing with you, Levi.
Quoting kmanislander:
Another big model switch. No more Nicaragua. As 96L drifts to the N so too will the models go.


Yep, and the NHC will bump their chances back up to 60% or 70% by the 8PM TWO.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
The rain has stopped so off to run errands before the next deluge. Back later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:

It sure is... but you could have an MJO pulse with convection the size of the US and it wouldn't matter this season.




You can still get a potent system with below climo instability levels.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Another big model switch. No more Nicaragua. As 96L drifts to the N so too will the models go.



No surprise. This should cause the NHC to bump the odds back up to red.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


It's late October.

It sure is... but you could have an MJO pulse with convection the size of the US and it wouldn't matter this season.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


And yesterday their thinking was straight north to northwest over water with nearly guaranteed development, identical to the model consensus. Today's thinking is also with the model consensus.


Wow, we must have been typing at the same time Lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I am posting this flood advisory with internet comming and going under a heavy thunderstorm in San Juan.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SAT OCT 22 2011

PRC007-021-025-041-045-061-063-127-139-222045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0506.111022T1852Z-111022T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-COMERIO PR-GUAYNABO PR-GURABO PR-
SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-
252 PM AST SAT OCT 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...COMERIO...GUAYNABO...GU RABO...SAN
JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO AND AGUAS BUENAS

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 245 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OF MOVING TOWARDS
THESE AREAS. SO FAR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN HALF AN
INCH AND AN INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. AT LEAST UNTIL 445 PM
AST...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
QUICK RISES IN SMALL STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1829 6594 1816 6614 1825 6625 1826 6624
1825 6623 1827 6623 1840 6603

$$
RAM
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


Looks nasty. Hearing thunder here as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting luvtogolf:


This is the NHC's thinking. Slow northward movement the shoved to the west by a blocking high pressure.


I agree that is their current thinking but it all depends on whether 96L takes it's own sweet time meandering around long enough for the high to retreat and allow it to continue lifting to the N. It wasn't their thinking yesterday and may not be so tomorrow or even later tonight.

Remember, late season systems are the most difficult to forecast as to track and intensity. Most are slow movers which allows the atmospheric currents to switch several times while the system remains essentially in the same area, thus giving the impression of "flip flopping " models and forecasting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting luvtogolf:


This is the NHC's thinking. Slow northward movement then shoved to the west by a blocking high pressure.


And yesterday their thinking was straight north to northwest over water with nearly guaranteed development, identical to the model consensus. Today's thinking is also with the model consensus.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robert88:
Conditions are just plain horrible in the Atlantic basin.




It's late October.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Another big model switch. No more Nicaragua. As 96L drifts to the N so too will the models go.



This is the NHC's thinking. Slow northward movement then shoved to the west by a blocking high pressure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Conditions are just plain horrible in the Atlantic basin.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another big model switch. No more Nicaragua. As 96L drifts to the N so too will the models go.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am posting this flood advisory with internet comming and going under a heavy thunderstorm in San Juan.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SAT OCT 22 2011

PRC007-021-025-041-045-061-063-127-139-222045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0506.111022T1852Z-111022T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-COMERIO PR-GUAYNABO PR-GURABO PR-
SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-
252 PM AST SAT OCT 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...COMERIO...GUAYNABO...GU RABO...SAN
JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO AND AGUAS BUENAS

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 245 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OF MOVING TOWARDS
THESE AREAS. SO FAR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN HALF AN
INCH AND AN INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. AT LEAST UNTIL 445 PM
AST...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
QUICK RISES IN SMALL STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1829 6594 1816 6614 1825 6625 1826 6624
1825 6623 1827 6623 1840 6603

$$
RAM
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14226
Quoting Levi32:


Unfortunately he tends to do that to me sometimes as well.


LOL. I don't know if he saw my post or read my mind.

Getting off now. Too much lightning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Based on current NHC criteria it's not quite there yet. A fully-exposed low-level center is not usually something they want to classify. The subjective requirement for organized convection is not being met here. The NE quad is also still ill-defined.

I'm not really sure they have a criteria, at least, not this season. Remember Jose? Completely exposed low-level center. Anyways, even if this isn't a tropical depression, it was downright wrong to drop this down to 50%. If should have been raised to 70% considering that as soon as it gets convection, we will have a tropical depression. Sure, its being sheared right now, but as its ULAC aligns with the system, wind shear will become virtually non-existent.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Rain rate of 3.5 inches per hour. Just got half an inch in the last half hour alone but it has eased up now. Big bolt of lightning just now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


The last paragraph is pretty much a paraphrase of a post I put up on the old blog this morning.


Unfortunately he tends to do that to me sometimes as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


LOL. I guess the North Sound does look like an inland lake from the end of the runway.

Randyke is probably in serious trouble today because you can see it at the end of that development across from our launching ramp in South Sound and it is coming down now at a rate of several inches an hour IMO. My weather station is downstairs so I will go take a look
Not that end of the runway. The end that is closer to Mango Tree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
96L should find more favorable conditions later tonight and tomorrow as it pulls away from land, which should allow for convection to develop. In my opinion, this is likely a 35 mph tropical depression, and it would probably be one if it was in the Gulf of Mexico...It wasn't a good idea for the NHC to cancel recon, and it wasn't a good idea for Avila to drop the chances down to 50%. They are being model worshipers right now, which is not a good thing to be in a complex situation such as this.

The storm is being sheared slightly right now due to the displacement of its upper level Anticyclone, but it should be able to align with it over the next 48 hours. If it does that, I expect the system to really take off in development. The potential is still there for 96L to become a significant storm in the coming days, especially with all that untapped fuel that lies a little farther north.


Based on current NHC criteria it's not quite there yet. A fully-exposed low-level center is not usually something they want to classify. The subjective requirement for organized convection is not being met here. The NE quad is also still ill-defined.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Those poor people in Randyke must be flooded already. My husband said he heard a tourist say yesterday that we have such a beautiful lake at the end of the airport runway. LOL


LOL. I guess the North Sound does look like an inland lake from the end of the runway.

Randyke is probably in serious trouble today because you can see it at the end of that development across from our launching ramp in South Sound and it is coming down now at a rate of several inches an hour IMO. My weather station is downstairs so I will go take a look
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


I saw that as well.
I think in a few more hours people will be singing a different song.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not looking good for the rest of the day

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
1 inch of rain already today and coming down very hard.
If 96L hangs around for several more days there will be serious low lying flooding on this island.
Those poor people in Randyke must be flooded already. My husband said he heard a tourist say yesterday that we have such a beautiful lake at the end of the airport runway. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If you look at the RGB loop you can see a definite northward movement and looks live convection is being pulled from the Pacific side of Panama towards the cc.


I saw that as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1 inch of rain already today and coming down very hard.
If 96L hangs around for several more days there will be serious low lying flooding on this island.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L should find more favorable conditions later tonight and tomorrow as it pulls away from land, which should allow for convection to develop. In my opinion, this is likely a 35 mph tropical depression, and it would probably be one if it was in the Gulf of Mexico...It wasn't a good idea for the NHC to cancel recon, and it wasn't a good idea for Avila to drop the chances down to 50%. They are being model worshipers right now, which is not a good thing to be in a complex situation such as this.

The storm is being sheared slightly right now due to the displacement of its upper level Anticyclone, but it should be able to align with it over the next 48 hours. If it does that, I expect the system to really take off in development. The potential is still there for 96L to become a significant storm in the coming days, especially with all that untapped fuel that lies a little farther north.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
If you look at the RGB loop you can see a definite northward movement and looks live convection is being pulled from the Pacific side of Panama towards the cc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link


thanks, very clear!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderweatherman123:

shear increased in the carribean and there still is dry air. right now i doubt 96L will develop.

Shear has not increased, this has already been pointed out to you.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting kmanislander:


Avila is conservative. That is more a fact than a criticism. Personally I think he is excellent.


Exactly, just as Stewart is an excellent forecaster, but sometimes a little bullish.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting kmanislander:


The last paragraph is pretty much a paraphrase of a post I put up on the old blog this morning.
I know and they have changed several times since yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Avila is conservative. That is more a fact than a criticism. Personally I think he is excellent.


I think he is excellent if not the best at the NHC. I'm not going to question his thinking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yeah I think the NHC is sleeping
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Excerpt from Crown Weather.

The 00Z GFS model guidance forecasts this system to become a tropical storm during Sunday and Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday as it tracks slowly northwestward. This northwestward track would cause future Rina to potentially impact the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel, as a hurricane by Wednesday into Thursday and the western tip of Cuba during Thursday. From there, the GFS model forecasts this potential hurricane to turn east-northeastward and affect the Florida Keys and south Florida on Friday night and potentially the northwestern Bahamas next Saturday.

The 06Z GFS model guidance has done a complete 180 and now forecasts Invest 96L to be shoved westward into Honduras and Nicaragua by later Monday and Tuesday as a tropical depression.

The European model forecasts no development whatsoever from Invest 96L which is also a complete 180 from yesterday’s model runs.

The UKMET model forecasts an overall northwestward path during the next several days which would take it near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by about Wednesday and then near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday. Given the approaching trough of low pressure forecast on the UKMET model, I would say a turn to the east-northeast towards south Florida is likely for Friday.

The Canadian model forecasts 96L to become a tropical storm by Sunday night and forecasts it to turn westward and west-southwestward at around the 17 North Latitude line. This west and west-southwest track would conceivably take this storm into Belize as a weakening tropical storm on Wednesday.

The GFDL model forecasts 96L to become a tropical storm by later today and shows it growing quickly into a hurricane just off of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras on Sunday. From there, the GFDL model forecasts that this system will turn due west and come ashore on the north coast of Honduras as a Category 2 hurricane on Monday night.

The HWRF model forecasts 96L to spin-up into a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. From there, the HWRF model forecasts future Rina to intensify quite rapidly into a hurricane by late Sunday and then a major Category 3 hurricane by Monday. The HWRF model is on the northwest tracking bus as it takes future Rina into the northwestern Caribbean about halfway between the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and Wednesday. At the end of the HWRF model run, which is Wednesday night, future Rina is tracking north-northeastward towards the western tip of Cuba as a major Category 4 hurricane.

The Experimental FIM model forecasts that 96L will develop into Tropical Storm Rina on Sunday. From there, the FIM model forecasts intensification as it tracks northwestward on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday reaching the northwestern Caribbean as a moderately strong tropical storm late Wednesday. The FIM model then forecasts future-Rina to affect Cancun and Cozumel as a 55 to 70 mph tropical storm by Thursday and then it turns east-northeastward which would cause the storm to affect the northwestern coast of Cuba on Friday, the Florida Keys and south Florida on Friday night into Saturday morning and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday afternoon.

One thing to keep in mind regarding waffling model runs is that this should be expected and further 180 turns in the model guidance are possible until we see a well defined center of circulation with this system. We should instead look at the current environment around this system and see what that tells us and go from there.


The last paragraph is pretty much a paraphrase of a post I put up on the old blog this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Notice the nearly complete absence of trade winds through the Caribbean. Disturbances like 96L need trade winds to help pile up air in their vicinity from the east in order to force air to rise. That's one of the only major negative factors that it is struggling with right now. However, the environment remains more conducive than not.

Also, the pressures and heights over central America and the eastern Pacific seem too high to allow westward movement into Nicaragua and Honduras right now. Any left turn seems more likely to be after a couple days of northward drift, when the ridge builds in over the southern U.S. for a couple days. At that point a move towards the Yucatan is possible, but whether it gets there will be another question. Right now the path of least resistance is either no path at all or a very slow northward drift.

shear increased in the carribean and there still is dry air. right now i doubt 96L will develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:


Thanks could you post the link please, TIA.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jrweatherman:
I don't understand the criticism of Avila? I guess a PHD isn't good enough.


Avila is conservative. That is more a fact than a criticism. Personally I think he is excellent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonekid:
Maybe this is why Avila lowered the percentages. It seems like the favored opinion is that it should be higher. I concur with that hypothesis. I say the percentages should have either been kept at 60% or have been increased to 70%.
too close to the land and dry air to the east, nothing will come of it for the states to worry about
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38216
Excerpt from Crown Weather.

The 00Z GFS model guidance forecasts this system to become a tropical storm during Sunday and Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday as it tracks slowly northwestward. This northwestward track would cause future Rina to potentially impact the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel, as a hurricane by Wednesday into Thursday and the western tip of Cuba during Thursday. From there, the GFS model forecasts this potential hurricane to turn east-northeastward and affect the Florida Keys and south Florida on Friday night and potentially the northwestern Bahamas next Saturday.

The 06Z GFS model guidance has done a complete 180 and now forecasts Invest 96L to be shoved westward into Honduras and Nicaragua by later Monday and Tuesday as a tropical depression.

The European model forecasts no development whatsoever from Invest 96L which is also a complete 180 from yesterday’s model runs.

The UKMET model forecasts an overall northwestward path during the next several days which would take it near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by about Wednesday and then near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday. Given the approaching trough of low pressure forecast on the UKMET model, I would say a turn to the east-northeast towards south Florida is likely for Friday.

The Canadian model forecasts 96L to become a tropical storm by Sunday night and forecasts it to turn westward and west-southwestward at around the 17 North Latitude line. This west and west-southwest track would conceivably take this storm into Belize as a weakening tropical storm on Wednesday.

The GFDL model forecasts 96L to become a tropical storm by later today and shows it growing quickly into a hurricane just off of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras on Sunday. From there, the GFDL model forecasts that this system will turn due west and come ashore on the north coast of Honduras as a Category 2 hurricane on Monday night.

The HWRF model forecasts 96L to spin-up into a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. From there, the HWRF model forecasts future Rina to intensify quite rapidly into a hurricane by late Sunday and then a major Category 3 hurricane by Monday. The HWRF model is on the northwest tracking bus as it takes future Rina into the northwestern Caribbean about halfway between the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and Wednesday. At the end of the HWRF model run, which is Wednesday night, future Rina is tracking north-northeastward towards the western tip of Cuba as a major Category 4 hurricane.

The Experimental FIM model forecasts that 96L will develop into Tropical Storm Rina on Sunday. From there, the FIM model forecasts intensification as it tracks northwestward on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday reaching the northwestern Caribbean as a moderately strong tropical storm late Wednesday. The FIM model then forecasts future-Rina to affect Cancun and Cozumel as a 55 to 70 mph tropical storm by Thursday and then it turns east-northeastward which would cause the storm to affect the northwestern coast of Cuba on Friday, the Florida Keys and south Florida on Friday night into Saturday morning and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday afternoon.

One thing to keep in mind regarding waffling model runs is that this should be expected and further 180 turns in the model guidance are possible until we see a well defined center of circulation with this system. We should instead look at the current environment around this system and see what that tells us and go from there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 227 - 177

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
68 °F
Overcast