Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
La Nina continues to kick South Central Texas in the Butt, LOL. FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT TRENDS TOWARD A DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY ARE
PRESENTING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. A COUPLE OF VERY DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FROPA
LATE NEXT WEEK.

That mid/late-week front looks like a solid one with which to close out October. The Tuesday high in Oklahoma City is 84, while on Wednesday it's 59; in Topeka, it's 76 then 53; in Amarillo it's 81 then 52. And it's pretty much the same story throughout the region--and, as your comment indicates, there's only a slightly elevated chance of showers during the frontal passage; it's gonna be a dry one.

Sorry about that...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think this would confirm a northern movement.

.CARIBBEAN LOW PRES 13N81W 1005 MB. WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE
OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR
14N81W 1007 MB. WITHIN 30 NM S OF CENTER W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR
15N82W 1008 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8


The NHC is the last TWO said it was drifting Northward.
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Quoting jrweatherman:
Models that go north we want to believe them. Models going west we say they are wrong. Why is that?

Because the pattern doesn't favor a westward motion, it favors more of a northward motion.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hope so, because I don't think I have done anything wrong, lol.
You haven't.
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Quoting WoodyFL:


I didn't make them. I just found them on the internet and it showed them moving more North than west. I thought it would make you happy. I will try and find models that are all moving North next time.
I think this would confirm a northern movement.

.CARIBBEAN LOW PRES 13N81W 1005 MB. WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE
OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR
14N81W 1007 MB. WITHIN 30 NM S OF CENTER W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR
15N82W 1008 MB. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Calm down. I think he was just joking.

I hope so, because I don't think I have done anything wrong, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
What La Nina does to South Central Texas is the Weather patterns all stay North and East of us where we have 95 percent of the time have dry fronts come thru, Rains and Storms get within 100 miles North and East of us but miss us, this is the same thing that happened last year also. I am thinking South Central Texas next chance for good rains will be next tropical season? That is our Winter forecast Warm and Dry.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What's your problem? You've had a real sucky attitude towards me the past two days.
Calm down. I think he was just joking.
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Models that go north we want to believe them. Models going west we say they are wrong. Why is that?
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Quoting WoodyFL:


I didn't make them. I just found them on the internet and it showed them moving more North than west. I thought it would make you happy. I will try and find models that are all moving North next time.
The last two surface maps show 96L moving N. Previous one had 97L going NW but have shifted back W.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
La Nina continues to kick South Central Texas in the Butt, LOL. FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT TRENDS TOWARD A DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY ARE
PRESENTING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. A COUPLE OF VERY DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FROPA
LATE NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WoodyFL:


I didn't make them. I just found them on the internet and it showed them moving more North than west. I thought it would make you happy. I will try and find models that are all moving North next time.


What's your problem? You've had a real sucky attitude towards me the past two days.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't really like any of those model runs...

My opinion is that the system will move north over the coming days, before turning towards the west for a brief period. It will then turn back to the north in response to a trough, and then NE towards Southern Florida/Western Cuba, without affecting the Yucatan Peninsula.


I didn't make them. I just found them on the internet and it showed them moving more North than west. I thought it would make you happy. I will try and find models that are all moving North next time.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Slowly coming together.... Link

The lower-level cloud deck is starting to fill in near the circulation center.


If it does develop that is not good news for those in Honduras, Nicaragua and Belize.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't really like any of those model runs...

My opinion is that the system will move north over the coming days, before turning towards the west for a brief period. It will then turn back to the north in response to a trough, and then NE towards Southern Florida/Western Cuba, without affecting the Yucatan Peninsula.


I, for one living in FL, hope you are wrong!
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We are looking at 96L from what it's doing over the water, but the system in general is absolute disaster for the central american countries that are getting hit by heavy rains. After Eddye posted a UTube link this morning I looked up floods in central america in multiple countries and it really looks miserable. El Salvador has a mostly rural population and they are getting heavy flooding, landslides, etc. Even AlJazeera had a video report, as do other world focused newspapers. So this system may come north and hit us but it has already done a good bit of damage without being a classified tropical storm.
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Quoting WoodyFL:

I don't really like any of those model runs...

My opinion is that the system will move north over the coming days, before turning towards the west for a brief period. It will then turn back to the north in response to a trough, and then NE towards Southern Florida/Western Cuba, without affecting the Yucatan Peninsula.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Mitch was officially named on this day in 1998....Formed October 22, 1998
Dissipated November 5, 1998
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
180 mph (285 km/h)
Lowest pressure 905 mbar (hPa; 26.72 inHg)
Fatalities At least 11,000 direct
Damage $6.2 billion (1998 USD)
Areas affected Central America (particularly Honduras and Nicaragua), Yucatn Peninsula, South Florida
Part of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season
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Quoting Skyepony:
Oceansat caught 97L.. Pulling together nicely, a little elongated still, but gonna hit land if it doesn't move N.



Could be one of those rare sleepers coming from that way at an unexpected time, just sayin.....
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Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Stop posting correct info. :P


Hey you :p It's a tough job but somebody's gotta do it (j/k)
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Quoting charlottefl:
Look like is may be slowly moving Northward. Core is beginning to tighten up on VIS.

Stop posting correct info. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Look like is may be slowly moving Northward. Core is beginning to tighten up on VIS.
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96L 18Z Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis

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Quoting Patrap:
Out at the airport where the planes come in
People buzzing like flies

Out at the airport where the planes come in
See the hours go flashing by

But you know it's gonna get there
Around and around it's gonna spin



AL962011 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Image/loop

...click image for loop

still a broad area of low pressure not well defined
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Out at the airport where the planes come in
People buzzing like flies

Out at the airport where the planes come in
See the hours go flashing by

But you know it's gonna get there
Around and around it's gonna spin



AL962011 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Image/loop

...click image for loop

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Quoting wxgeek723:


Already eager to see if next year will be 'the season' eh? Sigh

He mentioned nothing about that, do not try to assume that is what he was thinking.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
levi will you make a tidbit about the enso and 2012 hurricane season after 2011 season ends?


Already eager to see if next year will be 'the season' eh? Sigh
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued (past minute).

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 869 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC081-133-230500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0869.111022T2040Z-111023T0500Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

LITTLE RIVER SEVIER


OKC005-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-049-051 -061-063-067-
069-073-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-095-099-10 7-109-121-123-
125-127-133-137-230500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0869.111022T2040Z-111023T0500Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA BRYAN CADDO
CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW
CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE
COTTON GARVIN GRADY
HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON KINGFISHER LATIMER
LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN
LOVE MARSHALL MCCLAIN
MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MURRAY
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA
SEMINOLE STEPHENS


TXC037-063-067-077-085-097-119-121-147-159-181-183 -203-223-231-
237-277-315-337-343-379-387-449-459-497-499-230500 -
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0869.111022T2040Z-111023T0500Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOWIE CAMP CASS
CLAY COLLIN COOKE
DELTA DENTON FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREGG
HARRISON HOPKINS HUNT
JACK LAMAR MARION
MONTAGUE MORRIS RAINS
RED RIVER TITUS UPSHUR
WISE WOOD


ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...TSA...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
248. Skyepony (Mod)
Oceansat caught 97L.. Pulling together nicely, a little elongated still, but gonna hit land if it doesn't move N.

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Slowly coming together.... Link

The lower-level cloud deck is starting to fill in near the circulation center.
Also can see a slight N. movement.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Slowly coming together.... Link

The lower-level cloud deck is starting to fill in near the circulation center.
Quoting charlottefl:


Yeah and if I'm not mistaken, I think we're beginning to start to see some spiral banding..

Agreed on both accounts.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting charlottefl:


Yeah and if I'm not mistaken, I think we're beginning to start to see some spiral banding..


I was just going to post this link when I saw your entry.

Link
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting charlottefl:


Yeah and if I'm not mistaken, I think we're beginning to start to see some spiral banding..
indeed all we need is a good blow up of convection and we should see a TD tomorrow
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Slowly coming together.... Link

The lower-level cloud deck is starting to fill in near the circulation center.


Yeah and if I'm not mistaken, I think we're beginning to start to see some spiral banding..
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Slowly coming together.... Link

The lower-level cloud deck is starting to fill in near the circulation center.
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Quoting luvtogolf:


I think the models are correctly themselves a little bit after that huge adjustment from a northward bias to a westward bias.


I think they read this blog and just do that to confuse us, or give us something to argue about. J/K
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting WoodyFL:


Gee, they did shift a little more North than earlier, who would have thought that?


I think the models are correctly themselves a little bit after that huge adjustment from a northward bias to a westward bias.
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I think the center is a hare further West. Partially exposed on the East, and firing convection on the West side. As for direction of movement. I still say it's drifting erratically at the moment.

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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Gee, they did shift a little more North than earlier, who would have thought that?
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it is slightly east of where you have the circle.
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Another flood advisory issued.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST SAT OCT 22 2011

PRC013-039-054-073-101-107-141-222130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0508.111022T1930Z-111022T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-JAYUYA PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-UTUADO PR-
ARECIBO PR-
330 PM AST SAT OCT 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...JAYUYA...MOROVIS...OROCOVIS...U TUADO AND
ARECIBO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 329 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OR MOVING TOWARDS THESE
AREAS. SO FAR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN HALF AN INCH
AND AN INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. AT LEAST UNTIL 500 PM
AST...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
QUICK RISES IN SMALL STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1835 6663 1834 6649 1825 6638 1820 6650

$$
GV
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13299
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Give it a couple more hours and she will have her clothes on IMO.


Maybe....that line of Tstorms is building where the driest air has been for the last day or so
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
pretty good rain band firing just east of 96L in the last few frames of the loop

Link
Give it a couple more hours and she will have her clothes on IMO.
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Slowly but surely convection is finding it's way towards the coc.
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pretty good rain band firing just east of 96L in the last few frames of the loop

Link
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96L is starting to draw alot of moisture from the pacific to its south and Se side of the circulation
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Nope. The circulation is to the east of the convection.


oops yes I meant east. That happens.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13299
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The circulation is still to the west of the convection.
Nope. The circulation is to the east of the convection.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.