Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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NUEVO BLOG
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So far, 96L's formation and evolution has been very similar to what we saw last year with Paula. Lets see if that continues, 96L is better organized than it was yesterday. It is entirely possible the recon will find a 35 mph Tropical Depression 18. Looks closed from what little the ASCAT caught.

It really has...Looks exactly like Paula did as an invest as well.

If 96L wants to follow Paula exactly, recon should find 60 mph winds. However, I do not think that will be the case.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, several of the poor models.


Currently, I have very little confidence in any of the models.
But it looks like something (T.D or T.S) will affect the Belize area in a few days. What happens after that is anyone guess.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Eh, more like July.

Oh yeah I know was just making a comparison, especially if we get 3 named storms from these areas this late in the season.
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So far, 96L's formation and evolution has been very similar to what we saw last year with Paula. Lets see if that continues, 96L is better organized than it was yesterday. It is entirely possible the recon will find a 35 mph Tropical Depression 18. Looks closed from what little the ASCAT caught.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24169
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, several of the poor models.



LMAO
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Just noticed the GFDL run takes 97L from a TS to a Cat 3 in 6 hours (between 114 & 120 hrs).

Fear mongerer model!
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


We'll have to keep watch on 96L. Several of the models following this thinking and move 96L to the southwest into Central America.

Yeah, several of the poor models.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting TampaSpin:



Not much steering for 96L! What there is should move it WSW tho...


Actually that high to the W of 96L would block any motion to the WSW as 96L is too far N now IMO to be influenced by it. The high extends all the way into the Pacific. No way for 96L to get underneath it unless it builds over it to the N and does not look to be happening at this time. This set up has been around for over 24 hours.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Good morning.

96L has gotten better organized since yesterday. I think recon is gonna find a tropical depression.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting TampaSpin:



Not much steering for 96L! What there is should move it WSW tho...


We'll have to keep watch on 96L. Several of the models following this thinking and move 96L to the southwest into Central America.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


95L was actually a pretty strong system even though it never even became a T.D.
On its east side it had that really strong complex of convection.
Doppler radar indicated winds in excess of 60mph
2000 ft above the surface within this convection as it approached Fl west coast. Wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range were common with the system as it moved across South Fl during the late evening and over night.




95L, too bad it was never named.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
4.1 earthquake South of Grand Cayman last night

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Morning , anyone if Recon is still on for today? I see it still there , but sames confusing!


Todays TCPOD didn't have a remark about any cancellation,so is a go for this afternoon.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14315



Not much steering for 96L! What there is should move it WSW tho...
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Morning , anyone if Recon is still on for today? I see it still there , but sames confusing!


supposed to take off at 11:30 eastern so it a wait and see
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based on satalite i think we have a td..
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Good Morning , anyone if Recon is still on for today? I see it still there , but sames confusing!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7930
Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT data hasn't updated in more than 12hrs.


May be untill the end of the day before data starts again.

DUE TO A METOP SATELLITE ANOMALY, METOP INSTRUMENT DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE
FROM SENSING TIME 21:53 ON DOY 295 UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
METOP-A PLM HAS BEEN SWITCHED OFF AFTER A PLSOL ON DOY 295 22:38 UTC.
RECOVERY IS ON GOING. AVHRR, AMSU, MHS, HIRS, ASCAT, GRAS, SARR,
SARP SHOULD BE RECOVERD BY THE END OF THE DAY.
IASI AND GOME ON TUESDAY.

Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd hate to be in Invest 96L...Didn't 95L only have rain rates of like 3 inches or something?

Intense...


95L was actually a pretty strong system even though it never even became a T.D.
On its east side it had that really strong complex of convection.
Doppler radar indicated winds in excess of 60mph
2000 ft above the surface within this convection as it approached Fl west coast. Wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range were common with the system as it moved across South Fl during the late evening and over night.



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Quoting interstatelover7165:

Link Reconize it? It goes along with this situation.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yep I noticed that earlier, actually looks better than 96 & 97L :-P and the Atlantic is acting as though it is the peak of the Hurricane Season.

Eh, more like July.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting Skyepony:


Waters are still warm. CMC likes to consolidate it a bit more to the north. Could use more instability. It's found a sweet spot of lower shear. I give it a decent chance of becoming an invest at some point an an outside chance of becoming more.

It'll be an Invest, just for curiosity. I don't think it will do anything else.
The waters are definitely warm, though:
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What do you think about this?:

It's late October!
Yep I noticed that earlier, actually looks better than 96 & 97L :-P and the Atlantic is acting as though it is the peak of the Hurricane Season.
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Meanwhile, in the EPAC...


Nada.
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699. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What do you think about this?:

It's late October!


Waters are still warm. CMC likes to consolidate it a bit more to the north. Could use more instability. It's found a sweet spot of lower shear. I give it a decent chance of becoming an invest at some point an an outside chance of becoming more.
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
I know that. Africa. Isn't it a little late for Cape Verde?

I know right? This year is so bizarre...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

100% agree

true but if you look at the BAM models they always jump all over the place weak or strong it didn't matter they still do that


They are suppose to be a large spread difference depending on the strength of systems......that is what they are suppose to do........then they will finally come into very good agreement....Love the BAM and believe they give us different ways of looking at systems.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Earth. lol
I know that. Africa. Isn't it a little late for Cape Verde?
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Quoting Skyepony:
Highest rain rate on here is over 10 inches in the last 12 hrs..


I'd hate to be in Invest 96L...Didn't 95L only have rain rates of like 3 inches or something?

Intense...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting interstatelover7165:

What Da F?

Earth. lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Does it still have a chance to ramp up quickly? I mean, isn't it a little too close to land?


Paloma went from TS to Cat 4 over Cayman Brac and Little Cayman from the same position
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thank you Capt. Obvious :)

I'm not sure what it is...Looks like it did a while back when Invest 97L was being spawned.

This is a question ask Levi or Drak.

It just doesn't look like something you'd expect at this time of the year.
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691. Skyepony (Mod)
Highest rain rate on here is over 10 inches in the last 12 hrs..

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Quoting kmanislander:
My game got rained out so back home :-(. The sun is out now but not for long it seems.

96L looks like it has got to TD status and I would be surprised if this is not classified today. The risk with these October/November systems is that they take forever to close off then ramp up very quickly catching everyone by surprise.

I expect a renumber on this at any time whether the HH goes or not.

Does it still have a chance to ramp up quickly? I mean, isn't it a little too close to land?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thank you Capt. Obvious :)

I'm not sure what it is...Looks like it did a while back when Invest 97L was being spawned.

This is a question ask Levi or Drak.
Maybe the ol' CATL wave?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

All of them sending 96L into Nicaragua/Honduras or the Yucatan are likely wrong.

100% agree
Quoting TampaSpin:



They won't be wrong if it does not become at least a Tropical Storm......those other models are BAMS and BAMM! The BAMM is usually for Tropical Storms while the BAMS is for systems under Tropical Storm status. We will see what happens with 96L......my guess is it will become a TS at least but, i am not sure it goes North....Heck the GFS has nearly dropped it....So I don't know!

true but if you look at the BAM models they always jump all over the place weak or strong it didn't matter they still do that
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What Da F?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What do you think about this?:

It's late October!

Thank you Capt. Obvious :)

I'm not sure what it is...Looks like it did a while back when Invest 97L was being spawned.

This is a question ask Levi or Drak or Kman.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
My game got rained out so back home :-(. The sun is out now but not for long it seems.

96L looks like it has got to TD status and I would be surprised if this is not classified today. The risk with these October/November systems is that they take forever to close off then ramp up very quickly catching everyone by surprise.

I expect a renumber on this at any time whether the HH goes or not.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

No...NO!
Seriously, better hope it updates soon.

Link Reconize it? It goes along with this situation.
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682. Skyepony (Mod)
roatangardener~ Lastnight's TRMM pass showed this storm loaded with rain, especially on your side of it. You may be in for crazy rain..


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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
still say models are crap we need that darn c130 out there now hey how much longer till they take off


Around 11 AM EDT is the departure from Biloxi.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14315
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

All of them sending 96L into Nicaragua/Honduras or the Yucatan are likely wrong.



They won't be wrong if it does not become at least a Tropical Storm......those other models are BAMS and BAMM! The BAMM is usually for Tropical Storms while the BAMS is for systems under Tropical Storm status. We will see what happens with 96L......my guess is it will become a TS at least but, i am not sure it goes North....Heck the GFS has nearly dropped it....So I don't know!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, a lot bigger.

What do you think about this?:

It's late October!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
We were tracking a very dangerous hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico and headed towards Florida six years ago.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
still say models are crap we need that darn c130 out there now hey how much longer till they take off
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.