Western Caribbean disturbance 96L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is beginning to show signs of organization. Some rotation is apparent, and the upper-level cirrus clouds streaming away from the center indicate that 96L is establishing an upper-level outflow channel to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited at present, because a large region of dry air to the east of 96L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. An ASCAT pass at 11:05 am EDT showed no signs of a surface circulation, with surface winds in the 25 - 30 mph range. Surface pressures are slowly falling at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Monday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow some modest development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east. The models are quite enthusiastic about developing 96L into a tropical depression, and our top four reliable models for forecasting genesis--the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS--have all been predicting formation of a tropical depression by Monday in one or more of their runs over the past day. 96L is in an area of weak steering currents, and will move little over the next three days. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The 12Z run of the GFS model and 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models predict 96L will develop into a tropical storm that hits Western Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday, and potentially affecting the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Bahamas as well. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model, which has 96L moving ashore on Tuesday over Nicaragua as a weak system. NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L Saturday afternoon.

I'll have a new post on Saturday, but might wait until the afternoon, when the hurricane hunter data becomes available.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Evening Kman,
watch and wait,
Thanks for letting us know you are keeping an eye on these "invests".


I don't like it when they sit to our South, especially the slow movers. If it stays offshore it could be a real problem come Tuesday/Wednesday next week.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How strong do you think they both will get?


I do not believe that 97L is going to do much. It is very late in the year for something to develop and come up from where it is all the way through the Caribbean. 96L on the other hand could be anywhere from a strong TS to a Cat 3/4 system before reaching Cuba depending on track.

Models typically underestimate the intensity forecasts for late season systems in the NW Caribbean which tend towards RI. Paloma is a recent example of this and the TCHP in this area remains untapped. If it avoids the coast of Nicaragua it could become a very dangerous system as the motion will be slow through 96 hours.
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Evening Kman. That was a ton of rain we've had the past 24 hours,soaked up here in Sav'.Expect more through the weekend.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Why what ?

Nevermind, I changed my sentence, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
GFS at 228 hours, 96L crossing Cuba heading N.E.


Given that the GFS has over developed every system this season, I wouldn't put much faith into that forecast. Of course, even a broken clock is right twice a day (unless it's digital). :)
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Evening Kman,
watch and wait,
Thanks for letting us know you are keeping an eye on these "invests".
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why?


Why what ?
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

I hope everyone has a lot of patience because 96 and 97L are stuck in a very weak steering environment as seen in the image below. The weekend will probably be spent more in looking for how much development is taking place versus where either one is going. For the latter extra patience will be needed through at least late Sunday and possibly early Monday IMO


How strong do you think they both will get?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Good evening folks

I hope everyone has a lot of patience because 96 and 97L are stuck in a very weak steering environment as seen in the image below. The weekend will probably be spent more in looking for how much development is taking place versus where either one is going. For the latter extra patience will be needed through at least late Sunday and possibly early Monday IMO

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Quoting hurricaneeye:


No, im sorry. You are the United States of America
Most people in the United State use the term America to refer to themsleves. But actually America is a Hemisphere, of North and South America, Central America and the Caribbean. We are all americans, from different zones. United States is just one of the three huge Countries that makes North America; Canada, United States and Mexico.
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GFS at 228 hours, 96L crossing Cuba heading N.E.
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Very good link indeed, Woody. I think 28Storms and HurricaneCity are two of the better sites for storm tracking and not over dramatizing storms.

This looks like a really complex situation over the next seven days. I don't think there's much doubt that 96L will become a tropical storm during that period, but I can't see much in the way of a kicker to move it away from the southern Caribbean. The steering currents are very weak, and that dry air to that north looks like it's going to get reinforced by another strong cold front that should make it into Florida by Thursday or Friday. OTOH, if 96L can develop quickly enough, it may be able to get to hurricane status by Tuesday and be able to split the goal posts between the Yucatan and Cuba. If this happens, that cold front may be the kicker needed to draw Rina north then northeast toward Cuba, southern Florida, and the Bahamas. If it can't get strong enough, I suspect it's going to get pulled westward, probably into the Yucatan or southern Mexico. I guess I'll put off that trip to Cancun. :)

97L just doesn't look that impressive. It needs a lot of things, all happening at once, to get to tropical storm status, and I just don't see that happening. Of course, since neither of these invests even have center of circulation, the models are just making wild guesses at this point, as am I. Kind of interesting that late October seems to be giving us more tropical happenings than at the height of the season.

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more than likely any tc that goes into the gom or fl will be blasted by shear,the gom closed for busness about 2-3 weeks ago imo
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Hey everyone,
96L should be at 70 or 80% at 8pm TWO
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96L stuck at 192 hours.
Based on the GFS 96L moves north and makes landfall in Western Cuba and then moves back to the south at its location (192 hours). Then it eventually shoots to the N.E.
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Pottery gets the XTRP...

...and the CLP5

it's two for one Friday.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh where oh where are you Levi?

Oh where oh where are you Drakoen?


Drakoen was in the previous blog this morning for a few posts.
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If 96L stays off land... my gut feeling isn't good. :|
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Quoting WoodyFL:



Here is a link for you. Might keep you happy for a bit.


Link

I'll be okay..

Quoting indianrivguy:


He did a good job on this.



Given that Levi showed us three weeks ago that this pattern was likely, it would stand to reason that those of us aware of it would talk it up. Then, as it began to unfold others joined in. Storm patterns this time of year simply favor tracks that can include Florida. Most here recognize and understand that and so it gets talked about.

If stuff like this annoys you, feel free to swing over to the Global Warming blog..

ohhh...no....
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting weaverwxman:
Woody great link thanks...


Ive followed that guy for years. He always does a good job. Glad you liked it.
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211. kwad
Quoting CaribBoy:
97L = 1999 JOSE or close to it! Very interesting! I think it will track more NW that W... It's late october guys!


2010 TOMAS Hit St Lucia on October 31st. Started developing in the same location. We cannot afford another. Hope it stays in a westerly direction. Please not NW.
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Woody great link thanks...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh where oh where are you Levi?

Oh where oh where are you Drakoen?


He did a good job on this.



Given that Levi showed us three weeks ago that this pattern was likely, it would stand to reason that those of us aware of it would talk it up. Then, as it began to unfold others joined in. Storm patterns this time of year simply favor tracks that can include Florida. Most here recognize and understand that and so it gets talked about.

If stuff like this annoys you, feel free to swing over to the Global Warming blog..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh where oh where are you Levi?

Oh where oh where are you Drakoen?



Here is a link for you. Might keep you happy for a bit.


Link
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Funny.. I don't recall a single occasion where I said 'yes, Florida is going to get hit by this'. I don't recall anyone but trolls who've said that.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
wow! I came on the wrong day..

is it national bash-other peoples forecasts day today? Lay off Teddy, he does a lot better job than more than half the jokers on here combined.

looks like a dangerous late-season setup occurring according to the models when looking at 96l. be on guard!!
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Invest97L
10/20 18(UTC), 8.5n54.4w, 25knots, 1006millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/21 00(UTC), 8.6n54.8w, 25knots, 1006millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/21 06(UTC), 8.7n55.2w, 25knots, 1006millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/21 12(UTC), 8.8n55.7w, 25knots, 1006millibars, D(istur)B(ance)
10/21 18(UTC), 9.0n56.2w, 30knots, 1006millibars, D(istur)B(ance)

Copy&paste pmv, uvf, tab, pos, 8.5n54.4w-8.6n54.8w, 8.6n54.8w-8.7n55.2w, 8.7n55.2w-8.8n55.7w, 8.8n55.7w-9.0n56.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting BackwoodsTN:
OMG. I love it. Today, we have a couple of puny invests that a couple models blow up to become big, bad, dangerous hurricanes. LOL.

You think you guys would learn be now. You guys come out of the woodwork every chance you get whenever a computer models spits out a fantasy run for you--taking a cane toward America.

But I got news for you. No way the Caribbean disturbance gets as far North as Cuba, before being kicked away by the series of troughs and jet protecting the GOM.

And well, the other one...that'll end up being another Emily.

Next please...


I wonder what people with the mindset that compels them to now troll blogs did before there was the internet?

96L? Wait and see where we get a real center.

97L? Wondering if it gets pulled into this as one of the models suggested earlier today.

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If someone is trolling, click unlike on the post, then report it, and ignore if you want. Their comments will be hidden and you won't have to worry about it. Back to tropics!
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Neap how far north do you think this disturbance might get. I do not think it will get as far north as Wilma.
which will lessen S Fl impact but might wreak havoc in the S bahamas.
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Oh where oh where are you Levi?

Oh where oh where are you Drakoen?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting weaverwxman:
I don't think it is that funny everytime there might be a possibility of a storm coming this way even when it has not formed yet the instigators come out of the woodwork and all of you quote them and feed them UGGGG.
If 96L forms and I do Mean if the timing of the next front may be the significant player and it MAY get close to the Fla coast because that is the only way for it to go unless it stays basically where it is now weak and meandering then it will go harmlessly away. JMO.
I hope another Wilma track does not occur.Even though this storm going anywhere is going to possibly be a series issue.All right folks I had my laughs.Good night.
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I don't think it is that funny everytime there might be a possibility of a storm coming this way even when it has not formed yet the instigators come out of the woodwork and all of you quote them and feed them UGGGG.
If 96L forms and I do Mean if the timing of the next front may be the significant player and it MAY get close to the Fla coast because that is the only way for it to go unless it stays basically where it is now weak and meandering then it will go harmlessly away. JMO.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I almost quoted him again...but I caught myself.

Its so hard for me because I'm a teenager, and you know how we are. :P
Yes I have to deal with your type on the train when I'm coming back from work.Lol.
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Post 190.Wow to move to Florida in 2004 was bad timing.But no one knew Florida was gonna get hammered the way it did.And then 2005 came along......,
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Guys, please just ignore the very obvious trolls. They're simply people disgruntled about being banned some weeks/months ago, so they visit several times a day looking to cause a bit of trouble so they can feel better about their little selves. Just report and ignore, as the rules say, and we can help make this a friendlier, happier place. Thanks!
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LOL..local NC Met has issued a "snuggle watch" due to cold weather tonight. Probably to be upgraded to a "snuggle warning". Followed by "Cats-a-clinging Warning" overnight.

Note: It's State Fair time here plus Friday football.

I had a good laugh at that.
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I'am like laughing my a** off right now.Who else is?.I know there's other people.This is bloody funny.
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I almost quoted him again...but I caught myself.

Its so hard for me because I'm a teenager, and you know how we are. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
187. Just when I thought you already had said the most idiotic statement of the night, you keep on talking. Where do I say they will come to Florida Panhandle?? What the heck are you talking about? Find a post, quote me. I'll explain the meaning - not that you'll listen anyways, mind you I don't think you'd listen if it was screamed in your ear. I've been in hurricanes, bad ones. I was in Isabel in 2003, I moved to FL in 2004, bad timing. I experienced Charley, Frances, and Jeanne, then I had to go through Katrina in the FL hit and Wilma. Do I like hurricanes? No. Would I want one to hit me? No. I'll take my own advise here now, your going on ignore. Hopefully, an admin will pick you up too. Sorry that I'm ranting here folks, back to subject.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
We're just dealing with your typical arse-hats here, just flag and ignore. Satellite image of 96L.


Convection fading as unsurprising due to DMIN atm.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe you need to learn a thing or two before coming to post here.

Big, fat -1 for you.
I Laugh at people like those.And you should to.Their nothing but a joke.It's obvious they have no lives or nothing better else to do besides try to put people down.Hilarious.
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Quoting BackwoodsTN:

America is the U.S.


No, im sorry. You are the United States of America
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97L = 1999 JOSE or close to it! Very interesting! I think it will track more NW that W... It's late october guys!
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Quoting capelookout:

You're right about none of these storms getting anywhere near America. .

Excuse me, but America is anywhere from Canada to Argentina. I think you mean The United States of America.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.