Western Caribbean disturbance 96L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2011

Share this Blog
23
+

A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is beginning to show signs of organization. Some rotation is apparent, and the upper-level cirrus clouds streaming away from the center indicate that 96L is establishing an upper-level outflow channel to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited at present, because a large region of dry air to the east of 96L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. An ASCAT pass at 11:05 am EDT showed no signs of a surface circulation, with surface winds in the 25 - 30 mph range. Surface pressures are slowly falling at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Monday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow some modest development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east. The models are quite enthusiastic about developing 96L into a tropical depression, and our top four reliable models for forecasting genesis--the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS--have all been predicting formation of a tropical depression by Monday in one or more of their runs over the past day. 96L is in an area of weak steering currents, and will move little over the next three days. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The 12Z run of the GFS model and 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models predict 96L will develop into a tropical storm that hits Western Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday, and potentially affecting the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Bahamas as well. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model, which has 96L moving ashore on Tuesday over Nicaragua as a weak system. NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L Saturday afternoon.

I'll have a new post on Saturday, but might wait until the afternoon, when the hurricane hunter data becomes available.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 332 - 282

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

332. BaltimoreBrian
12:51 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
That HWRF model is disconcerting. Even though it has overdeepened storms in the past. A Halloween Howler?
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 25 Comments: 8059
331. Tazmanian
12:44 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You live in California?

5:39 PM PDT



thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114066
330. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:43 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Same for 97L:

AL, 97, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 93N, 569W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
329. pottery
12:42 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
could some one plzs time me what time it is ?

Looks like September, right?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
328. Neapolitan
12:39 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Pressure down one millibar since 1800z:

AL, 96, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 807W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
327. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:39 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
could some one plzs time me what time it is ?

You live in California?

5:39 PM PDT
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
326. hurricaneben
12:39 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
and if wind shear is low.................... wilma 2.0 o__O


That's what I was saying, and it looks like shear might not be so high after all. Wilma indeed...that's why I was saying to keep it relatively away from me. I like the excitement but not the damage. TS/CAT I conditions would be nice though as long as it doesn't cause extreme destruction and a high death toll.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 405 Comments: 675
325. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:38 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Latest SHIPS (just out):

HEAT CONTENT 43 44 44 45 48 53 12 62 100 97 86 86 72

SHEAR (KT) 17 16 12 11 4 7 13 16 18 8 12 14 16

SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.0

700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 70 70 71 67 66 58 55 55 52 57

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
324. Patrap
12:37 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)




AL962011 - INVEST




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
323. Tazmanian
12:36 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
could some one plzs time me what time it is ?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114066
322. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:36 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Pressure down 1 mb., winds the same.

AL, 96, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 807W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
321. wunderweatherman123
12:36 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Boo!!!!

HEAT CONTENT 44 42 41 41 41 44 44 56 10 89 81 88 90

A TCHP value around 75 is typically needed for Rapid Intensification...96L is expected to pass over 90 in 120 hours, and increasing....
and if wind shear is low.................... wilma 2.0 o__O
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
320. hurricaneben
12:35 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Boo!!!!

HEAT CONTENT 44 42 41 41 41 44 44 56 10 89 81 88 90

A TCHP value around 75 is typically needed for Rapid Intensification...96L is expected to pass over 90 in 120 hours, and increasing....


If that's true...I don't like where this is going. Could we see another Wilma-type intensification? I would like the excitement, but if it's really poised to be a massive major monster--keep it relatively away from me in Florida. I would like to see some nice action though, the Sunrise tornado dissipated 10 miles from my house.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 405 Comments: 675
319. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:23 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Boo!!!!

HEAT CONTENT 44 42 41 41 41 44 44 56 10 89 81 88 90

A TCHP value around 75 is typically needed for Rapid Intensification...96L is expected to pass over 90 in 120 hours, and increasing....
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
318. Levi32
12:22 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting shawn26:
Levi, will you be doing a tidbit over the weekend?


Probably.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
317. KoritheMan
12:18 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
I wouldn't be surprised to see a November storm. If 97L makes something of itself any time soon, that'd be two Oct storms. But with us going back into a La Nina winter, I can see a November storm, especially one like 96L, as a distinct possibility.


Indeed. Also do not forget high latitude ones like Noel and Olga of 2001.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19128
316. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:17 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Strange....
I was mixing one while you were posting that!

Salud!


Cheerleaders!

I have now joined you in a nightcap...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
315. BahaHurican
12:15 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:
Looks like we may actually churn out an October storm. That would be expected during a La Nina year.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a November storm. If 97L makes something of itself any time soon, that'd be two Oct storms. But with us going back into a La Nina winter, I can see a November storm, especially one like 96L, as a distinct possibility.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
314. BahaHurican
12:12 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Hey all.... have been reading back a bit... I still see room for a track anywhere from eastern to western Cuba with this system [96L]. A lot will depend on how far north it gets before it's picked up by a front. Is anybody else seeing the track NW and then W into Nicaragua / Honduras as being less likely for now?

Either way, 96L seems poised to add more moisture to that seen in central America and the Caymans of late.

97L is pretty far south; I'm not sure what to think about it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
313. KoritheMan
12:10 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Looks like we may actually churn out an October storm. That would be expected during a La Nina year.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19128
312. shawn26
12:09 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Levi, will you be doing a tidbit over the weekend?
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
311. WoodyFL
12:05 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
310. WoodyFL
12:01 AM GMT on October 22, 2011
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
309. pottery
11:59 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree about being a significant concern. The NW Caribbean has a tendency to produce at least one monster each year. We'll see.

I was thinking that.
Hope this year is the odd one out.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
308. pottery
11:57 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Hmmmm....
I tink it's time for an environmentally friendly libation...

Strange....
I was mixing one while you were posting that!

Salud!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
307. kmanislander
11:56 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Have to go now but will check in later.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
306. wunderweatherman123
11:56 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting Levi32:




I like it because it's small, unlike 95L, and it basically represents the western edge of the MJO low pressure envelope, which means it has a lot of things naturally enhancing vorticity and low-level convergence. With the ECMWF and GFS now both jumping on it, it's becoming a more significant concern. It will take a little while for it to build up enough heat to kick out the upper trough axis sitting south of Jamaica though, which is currently hindering upper-level outflow.
levi i know the HWRF and GFDL over do tropical systems like crazy but is it possible if 96L takes a track towards western cuba and it takes about a week to get there and there is no dry air anticylone aloft and boiling water for it to become a major because october majors that threaten florida arent unheard of..
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
305. kmanislander
11:55 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting Levi32:




I like it because it's small, unlike 95L, and it basically represents the western edge of the MJO low pressure envelope, which means it has a lot of things enhancing vorticity and low-level convergence. With the ECMWF and GFS now both jumping on it, it's becoming a more significant concern. It will take a little while for it to build up enough heat to kick out the upper trough axis sitting south of Jamaica though, which is currently hindering upper-level outflow.


I agree about being a significant concern. The NW Caribbean has a tendency to produce at least one monster each year. We'll see.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
304. wunderkidcayman
11:54 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
ok I say depending on how well D-Max start off and continues I say 90/100% by 1am TD/TS by 5am or 8am or 80/90% by 1am and TD/TS by 11am
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
303. Levi32
11:52 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:


That's better LOL. So, what say you about 96L then ??




I like it because it's small, unlike 95L, and it basically represents the western edge of the MJO low pressure envelope, which means it has a lot of things naturally enhancing vorticity and low-level convergence. With the ECMWF and GFS now both jumping on it, it's becoming a more significant concern. It will take a little while for it to build up enough heat to kick out the upper trough axis sitting south of Jamaica though, which is currently hindering upper-level outflow.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
302. WeatherNerdPR
11:52 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
They made the circle smaller and rounder.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
301. CaicosRetiredSailor
11:50 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
70 percent...
I think I heard that earlier....
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
70%. Whoop-de-doo.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
70%. Not much room left before calling a virtual certainty.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
out for now lets see what happens tomorrow morning but looking likely we will see a TD sometime tomorrow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
70% for 96L

20% for 97L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whoo!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Quoting pottery:


Waterboarding for crickets. That's a new one
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting pottery:

The Plants know something...
Mangos are flowering again. Weird.
They fruited in Jun/Jul.
Immortelles are flowering in the Hills.
They are a Dry-Season bloom.....

Everything is topsy-turvy.


Hmmmm....
I tink it's time for an environmentally friendly libation...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
Quoting pottery:
>
Been using soap.
Blocks their breathing, but doesnt harm the birds and chickens.
In any case, the grass comes back....
(savannah grass)
find some green products like FERTILOME brand
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Both of those products are somewhat sketchy and to compare one to the other is even more sketchy.

Oh, there you are. Hey.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Quoting kmanislander:


Look for anything out of the ordinary.

pps. Spray the mole crickets with an environmentally friendly pesticide.
>
Been using soap.
Blocks their breathing, but doesnt harm the birds and chickens.
In any case, the grass comes back....
(savannah grass)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
Quoting Levi32:


Good evening lol.
hey levi looks like South Florida might have a hallow visit from a ghost called 96L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Good evening lol.


That's better LOL. So, what say you about 96L then ??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
looks like the TWO is delayed from the usual early postage
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Well, well. Good evening to you too Levi.


Good evening lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting pottery:

The Plants know something...
Mangos are flowering again. Weird.
They fruited in Jun/Jul.
Immortelles are flowering in the Hills.
They are a Dry-Season bloom.....

Everything is topsy-turvy.
my plants have gone bonkers also stuff that should not be blooming till spring are blooming now 5-6 months ahead of time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Both of those products are somewhat sketchy and to compare one to the other is even more sketchy.


Well, well. Good evening to you too Levi.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Speaking of Portents...

some of my wild orchids here are blooming in the first week of October...
These are the ones which we call "Christmas Orchids"
...is it Christmas already?

However, I have been enjoying fresh picked mushrooms
in my morning omelets lately... which says we had plenty rain mon...

The Plants know something...
Mangos are flowering again. Weird.
They fruited in Jun/Jul.
Immortelles are flowering in the Hills.
They are a Dry-Season bloom.....

Everything is topsy-turvy.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
Quoting Levi32:


Both of those products are somewhat sketchy and to compare one to the other is even more sketchy.

Now I feel...sketchy.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Time to get back into blogging mode now that 96L poses a threat to both Florida and much of the western Caribbean.

60% at 8p.m seems good to me. Still has some work to do on it's circulation and convective organization before we get too hyped on classifying this.
welcome back we have missed your insights
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 332 - 282

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.