Western Caribbean disturbance 96L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is beginning to show signs of organization. Some rotation is apparent, and the upper-level cirrus clouds streaming away from the center indicate that 96L is establishing an upper-level outflow channel to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited at present, because a large region of dry air to the east of 96L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. An ASCAT pass at 11:05 am EDT showed no signs of a surface circulation, with surface winds in the 25 - 30 mph range. Surface pressures are slowly falling at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Monday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow some modest development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east. The models are quite enthusiastic about developing 96L into a tropical depression, and our top four reliable models for forecasting genesis--the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS--have all been predicting formation of a tropical depression by Monday in one or more of their runs over the past day. 96L is in an area of weak steering currents, and will move little over the next three days. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The 12Z run of the GFS model and 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models predict 96L will develop into a tropical storm that hits Western Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday, and potentially affecting the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Bahamas as well. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model, which has 96L moving ashore on Tuesday over Nicaragua as a weak system. NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L Saturday afternoon.

I'll have a new post on Saturday, but might wait until the afternoon, when the hurricane hunter data becomes available.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GerlindeEspinosa:

Oh brother--you mean to tell me your are actually using the LBAR and BAMM for guidance. LMAO.

Let's get a closed off low and then we'll talk, eh?


cat5hurricane? Has to be him.
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96L

Dynamic 18Z

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Since the previous mapping for 21Oct_12pmGMT :
13.8n80.0w, 13.5n80.0w have been re-evaluated&altered for Invest96L's_22Oct_12amGMT_ATCF
14.0n80.0w, 13.5n80.2w, 13.0n80.5w, 12.7n80.7w are now the most recent positions
Starting 21Oct_12amGMT and ending 22Oct_12amGMT

The 4 line-segments represent Invest96L's southsouthwestward path
(213.75degrees is midway between SSW and SW)

Copy&paste cdd, puz, pva, adz, lio, 14.2n80.0w-14.0n80.0w, 14.0n80.0w-13.5n80.2w, 13.5n80.2w-13.0n80.5w, 13.0n80.5w-12.7n80.7w, ctg, rch into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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Surely a lot to hash out over the next few days however, models are rather tightly clustered to the NW Caribbean.

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Control yerself

Take only what you need from them..

A family of trees wanting,

To be Haunted



Currently Active Tropical Cyclones

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Wow @ HWRF - that is the most perfect 107KT storm I've ever seen on a model... beautiful.
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Quoting Patrap:
.."I cant believe they havent named..



your going too end up on a lot of bloger | Ignore if you keep saying that i cant talk for evere one us but i find it vary annyouing
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Pat...It's headed to Tampa right? I'm tucking my head now! ;)
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Wow. It's Friday evening, and the disgruntled, multi-handled little fella has nothing better to do than troll a weather forum. Don't engage him, but do feel pity on him for his obvious lack of social skills that find him again at home and alone. Pobrecito...
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The water is warm

But it's sending me shivers

A baby is born
Crying out for attention

The memories fade

Like looking through a fogged mirror

Decision to decisions are made and not bought
But I thought this wouldn't hurt a lot

I guess not


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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You can set your watch by them and I still have not figured out why the good bloggers on here always choose to engage them. They are like a pesky mosquito. Swat them away and forget about them.


yes when they start talking to themselves they leave for sure
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE.. .70 ERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Sorry I can't hang around to read comments, another exhausting day.
Goodnight!
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like the keys need anymore rain didnt key west get like 18 inches?
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Quoting will40:
you guys are feeding a troll again
You can set your watch by them and I still have not figured out why the good bloggers on here always choose to engage them. They are like a pesky mosquito. Swat them away and forget about them.
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Anyway, I'm out.

Since we've reached a new page, I'll link to my blog again.

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Quoting will40:
you guys are feeding a troll again


Ugh, you're right. I will go out on a limb and say that I seriously doubt 96L will hit Baltimore as a hurricane!
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I read Koritheman's blog and it was well written and well reasoned. He's definitely not overhyping 96L or saying it will surely be a threat to any specific location.


Thank you. I would die before I hype.
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evening, wunderfolks.with shear this low, and waters still warm, anything can happen.

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Quoting will40:
you guys are feeding a troll again
I know. :/ Its hard not to when there this good at it.
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Quoting will40:
you guys are feeding a troll again


trying not to
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you guys are feeding a troll again
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Quoting GerlindeEspinosa:

Oh brother--you mean to tell me your are actually using the LBAR and BAMM for guidance. LMAO.

Let's get a closed off low and then we'll talk, eh?


AL, 96, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 807W, 25, 1007

the NHC found the closed low did you?
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Quoting GerlindeEspinosa:
KoriTheMan,

Here we go again. Yet another overhyped, premature, chicken little expression of "OMG, I think this is the big one folks".

Ha. It's more like another attempt to try to get everyone to see that they are the first person to make such a bold, stupid prediction. Yes I read your blog, and normally enjoy it. But this is yet another CyberTed kind of reaction to something that HAS NOT even materialized yet.

Does it even have a closed off LLC? Anyone? What's recon say? Cuz I see two huge longwaves diggin' in by the time this thing would even have a prayer to affect Florida or anywhere in America.

Folks, this a Caribbean storm. Plain and simple.

Next please...

Lol ur acting like uv been on this blog for years. Who made u the boss of everybody. Id quit the childish stuff before we all put u on ignore.
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I read Koritheman's blog and it was well written and well reasoned. He's definitely not overhyping 96L or saying it will surely be a threat to any specific location.
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Quoting GerlindeEspinosa:
KoriTheMan,

Here we go again. Yet another overhyped, premature, chicken little expression of "OMG, I think this is the big one folks".

Ha. It's more like another attempt to try to get everyone to see that they are the first person to make such a bold, stupid prediction. Yes I read your blog, and normally enjoy it. But this is yet another CyberTed kind of reaction to something that HAS NOT even materialized yet.

Does it even have a closed off LLC? Anyone? What's recon say? Cuz I see two huge longwaves diggin' in by the time this thing would even have a prayer to affect Florida or anywhere in America.

Folks, this a Caribbean storm. Plain and simple.

Next please...




plain and simple huh ?
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Quoting GerlindeEspinosa:
KoriTheMan,

Here we go again. Yet another overhyped, premature, chicken little expression of "OMG, I think this is the big one folks".

Ha. It's more like another attempt to try to get everyone to see that they are the first person to make such a bold, stupid prediction. Yes I read your blog, and normally enjoy it. But this is yet another CyberTed kind of reaction to something that HAS NOT even materialized yet.

Does it even have a closed off LLC? Anyone? What's recon say? Cuz I see two huge longwaves diggin' in by the time this thing would even have a prayer to affect Florida or anywhere in America.

Folks, this a Caribbean storm. Plain and simple.

Next please...


There are far too many uncertainties within the synoptic pattern to tell whether it misses the United States. I do agree that it is likely to remain in the Caribbean for at least the next five days, as I said.

I do not hype. I forecast. I have been wrong before, and could be again.
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.."I cant believe they havent named..
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Thanks! I've been meaning to finish it but either been too busy or too lazy when I've had time. But I'll finish it eventually. I'd meant to write up the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest and the Spanish Armada but don't know if I'll have time in next 3 weeks.


yeah, yeah, yeah. You've been saying that for weeks. How much work could you army guys have anyway?
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The Bahamas are part of America.

And I think it's too early to exclude Florida from being potentially threatened by this system.


i dont know why some are saying it wont be a threat to america just doesnt make sense we have seen the NHC forecast cone yet
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The Bahamas are part of America.

And I think it's too early to exclude Florida from being potentially threatened by this system.
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Quoting WoodyFL:


hiya, BB. Great read on your blog.


Thanks! I've been meaning to finish it but either been too busy or too lazy when I've had time. But I'll finish it eventually. I'd meant to write up the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest and the Spanish Armada but don't know if I'll have time in next 3 weeks.
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Quoting Grothar:
.
Hey Grothar. How are you doing ?
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levi whats ur take on 96l current satellite presentation
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
That HWRF model is disconcerting. Even though it has overdeepened storms in the past. A Halloween Howler?


hiya, BB. Great read on your blog.
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Well, well. Here we are again...


GFDL & HWRF pull the "Dead Mans Hand".
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Well, the euro has been pretty consistent in regards to 96 l, at least in the past two runs. Where as the GFS has it doing this crazy loop southeast at the end. Anxious to see if they come to some sort of agreement in the next couple of days. Anyone have an opinion as to which model has performed best this season?

Both have had their fair share of winds.
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.
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Well, the euro has been pretty consistent in regards to 96 l, at least in the past two runs. Where as the GFS has it doing this crazy loop southeast at the end. Anxious to see if they come to some sort of agreement in the next couple of days. Anyone have an opinion as to which model has performed best this season?
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Once the Ull to its north move farther west, 97 might have a chance to increase since wind shear would be decreasing by Sunday and SST are very hot, who knows, they have it as a Cat-1 in 120 hours...
Hmm.... they r still forecasting that NNW track? I thought given the ULL's location that didn't seem likely to work. Only potential track to me seems to be NW towards JA / RD.... with eventual recurve due to whatever front comes through. But even that seems low probability right now.

However, I remember Tomas, so am not ruling out anything at this point.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey all.... have been reading back a bit... I still see room for a track anywhere from eastern to western Cuba with this system [96L]. A lot will depend on how far north it gets before it's picked up by a front. Is anybody else seeing the track NW and then W into Nicaragua / Honduras as being less likely for now?

Either way, 96L seems poised to add more moisture to that seen in central America and the Caymans of late.

97L is pretty far south; I'm not sure what to think about it.
Once the Ull to its north move farther west, 97 might have a chance to increase since wind shear would be decreasing by Sunday and SST are very hot, who knows, they have it as a Cat-1 in 120 hours...
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Quoting WoodyFL:


Is it just me or this model always bomb storms like that?
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That HWRF model is disconcerting. Even though it has overdeepened storms in the past. A Halloween Howler?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.