Western Caribbean disturbance 96L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is beginning to show signs of organization. Some rotation is apparent, and the upper-level cirrus clouds streaming away from the center indicate that 96L is establishing an upper-level outflow channel to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited at present, because a large region of dry air to the east of 96L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. An ASCAT pass at 11:05 am EDT showed no signs of a surface circulation, with surface winds in the 25 - 30 mph range. Surface pressures are slowly falling at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Monday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow some modest development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east. The models are quite enthusiastic about developing 96L into a tropical depression, and our top four reliable models for forecasting genesis--the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS--have all been predicting formation of a tropical depression by Monday in one or more of their runs over the past day. 96L is in an area of weak steering currents, and will move little over the next three days. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The 12Z run of the GFS model and 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models predict 96L will develop into a tropical storm that hits Western Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday, and potentially affecting the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Bahamas as well. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model, which has 96L moving ashore on Tuesday over Nicaragua as a weak system. NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L Saturday afternoon.

I'll have a new post on Saturday, but might wait until the afternoon, when the hurricane hunter data becomes available.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Kmanwoodie:
Hi everyone,
Have not posted in a while, just lurking as usual.
I am really concerned about 96L. Recon planes here at the airport in Cayman as well. Anyone know when they are scheduled to go in? Had to cancel trip to Miami on Sunday. Hopefully everyone will get prepared over the weekend. Did not even see any mention on the local weather here this evening. Thank goodnees for the blog. Always have useful info on here. Kman, any thoughts for us in the next fees days?
Recon is scheduled to go in tomorrow. I don't think kman is on now but he says we need to watch this one close. I mentioned this morning how good(sarcasm) Radio Cayman and CITN keep us updated.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I saw that :). Don't let it get to you. Just think of them as a puddle of dirty water. You step over it and go on your way. You don't let the puddle interfere with what you want to do.


Good analogy.
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Hi everyone,
Have not posted in a while, just lurking as usual.
I am really concerned about 96L. Recon planes here at the airport in Cayman as well. Anyone know when they are scheduled to go in? Had to cancel trip to Miami on Sunday. Hopefully everyone will get prepared over the weekend. Did not even see any mention on the local weather here this evening. Thank goodnees for the blog. Always have useful info on here. Kman, any thoughts for us in the next fees days?
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Quoting tropicfreak:


And I removed the offensive word and added something else.
I saw that :). Don't let it get to you. Just think of them as a puddle of dirty water. You step over it and go on your way. You don't let the puddle interfere with what you want to do.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Well, just ignore them. It won't do any good if you get yourself banned.


And I removed the offensive word and added something else.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Well, just ignore them. It won't do any good if you get yourself banned.


Alright, I've been doing that this year, but I just had to say something to express how fustrated I am about those trolls! Done with my ranting and venting!
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
u guys think 96L will look better tomorrow?
Check it around 4am or so and you will know then. It is normal for this time of night for a developing system to look like it does now.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Sorry, but this nonsense along with senseless individuals has dragged along throughout the whole season, and I'm getting really sick and tired of it.
Well, just ignore them. It won't do any good if you get yourself banned.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You are playing with getting banned with your language. You don't have to be discriminatory to get your point across.


Sorry, but this nonsense along with senseless individuals has dragged along throughout the whole season, and I'm getting really sick and tired of it.
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u guys think 96L will look better tomorrow?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
421. 7544
hmm looking at the hwrf looks like we could see another wilma system but will it take the same track also notice that 96l and 97l both meet in the carb.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Tell that to JFV not us. It's not like Irene caused a lot of damage and killed individuals.
You are playing with getting banned with your language. You don't have to be discriminatory to get your point across.
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Quoting chrisdscane:



thats removed from the convection




if it was re move from the t-storm it would not be T1.5 now would it??? it would say too weak
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Quoting stillwaiting:
a strong tc is possible south of cuba,if it gets north shear and dry air awaits,not as dry as now,continental airmass is entrenched over the area and aint gking know where's



Well I am glad you hold the crystal ball of weather forecasting beyond a reasonable time frame, have the lottery numbers for tonight? I have 7 minutes left.
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Quoting Tazmanian:
21/2345 UTC 12.8N 81.0W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic



thats removed from the convection
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21/2345 UTC 12.8N 81.0W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They are marginal now, but they won't be marginal then..

Latest SHIPS takes the TCHP value up to 100.

Ouch...
Could get even higher than that if it goes into the area just south of the tip of northen cuba, 110-120's.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That is a extremely dangerous TCHP value. Just be thankful the conditions are marginal, not excellent like they would be in mid-August.

They are marginal now, but they won't be marginal then..

Latest SHIPS takes the TCHP value up to 100.

Ouch...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Boo!!!!

HEAT CONTENT 44 42 41 41 41 44 44 56 10 89 81 88 90

A TCHP value around 75 is typically needed for Rapid Intensification...96L is expected to pass over 90 in 120 hours, and increasing....


That is a extremely dangerous TCHP value. Just be thankful the conditions are marginal, not excellent like they would be in mid-August.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24193
Is there a long range model for snow in the USA out there, if so plz send a link, by long range i mean seasonal models.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Dazzling Orionid meteor shower due Saturday
Isn't the biggest meteor shower, but one 'definitely worth waking up for'





Early bird skywatchers set your alarms: The annual October meteor shower will peak before sunrise on Saturday as the Earth passes through a stream of leftover dust from the famous Halley's Comet.

The Orionid meteor shower promises to offer skywatchers with a dark sky and good weather up to 15 meteors per hour at its peak, according to a NASA forecast.

Thanks for the tip --- didn't realize it was that time again and would have missed it if you hadn't of posted.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not seeing what u think will prevent 96L from heading N and NE... the W to Nic / Hond. seems counterintuitive to me.

I gotta admit I don't give much chances to anything N of 25N in the GOM...
,south then sw,then nw into ca,a clockwise loop imo,maybe remerging off the north coast of hondurous
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


You very well could be right however, 95L was always modeled to be exactly what it was, weak...

96L on the other hand is being touted as a major cane by reliable models. Not ensuing they are correct, just pointing out some differences that the models may be picking up on this time around that you are not.
a strong tc is possible south of cuba,if it gets north shear and dry air awaits,not as dry as now,continental airmass is entrenched over the area and aint gking know where's
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Got some rains today. Not much, just some intermittent showers.

Good Night.
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


seems like the wind has picked up in the last few hours and shifted a little more northeasterly



East End is showing ENE @ 26 mph.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Uh... Bahamas IS.... one unit made of smaller parts.... TYVM...

Agreed on the exclusion comment....

Is that PIQUE, as in raise to a higher level, titillate? [lol... just learned that little 5-letter word from a Toastmaster's attending friend of mine...]

Hey, PP.... haven't chatted in a while. Nice to have had several potentially interesting systems throughout October, but without much mayhem attached. Unfortunately, this 96L is looking a lot more ominous than its predecessors this month....



Thanks for the correction, not climbing any mountains tonight, lol.

Tightly clustered, early models tell me that steering will be rather straight forward. Even the ensembles are along the path. Remembering back to Wilma and how the models were so tightly clustered for seemed like a week before landfall. May do the exact opposite however and land into the Western Caribbean.
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376 Tazmanian "You're going to end up on a lot of blogger's Ignore if you keep saying that. I can't talk for every one of us but I find it very annoying."

Patrap's just joking, teasing the folks here who normally start screaming "I can't believe that the NHC hasn't Named [whatever blob] " whenever an Invest(ed) D(istur)B(ance) has turned into a (closed)LO(w).
The tease is apparently working: nobody is accusing the NHC of being manned by incompetents... yet.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting stillwaiting:
any tc making its way into the gom has alot of dry air and shear to deal with,95l just got destroyed by it,what makes anyone think those conditions will change,fat chance!,im guessing into nicaragua/hondurous...
I'm not seeing what u think will prevent 96L from heading N and NE... the W to Nic / Hond. seems counterintuitive to me.

I gotta admit I don't give much chances to anything N of 25N in the GOM...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I highly doubt it :) Just thought someone else might be interested. Sure is windy.


seems like the wind has picked up in the last few hours and shifted a little more northeasterly
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The Bahamas are part of America.

And I think it's too early to exclude Florida from being potentially threatened by this system.
Uh... Bahamas IS.... one unit made of smaller parts.... TYVM...

Agreed on the exclusion comment....

Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Long ways away for sure. However, it's one of those times and one of those places that peak the interest of SFL.
Is that PIQUE, as in raise to a higher level, titillate? [lol... just learned that little 5-letter word from a Toastmaster's attending friend of mine...]

Hey, PP.... haven't chatted in a while. Nice to have had several potentially interesting systems throughout October, but without much mayhem attached. Unfortunately, this 96L is looking a lot more ominous than its predecessors this month....
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Quoting stillwaiting:
any tc making its way into the gom has alot of dry air and shear to deal with,95l just got destroyed by it,what makes anyone think those conditions will change,fat chance!,im guessing into nicaragua/hondurous...


You very well could be right however, 95L was always modeled to be exactly what it was, weak...

96L on the other hand is being touted as a major cane by reliable models. Not ensuing they are correct, just pointing out some differences that the models may be picking up on this time around that you are not.
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Link

How could any tropical system hold together, should it make it into the gulf with this ahead of it?
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


I do enjoy watching them however I dont think the weather is going to cooperate for us here in cayman.. ;-p
I highly doubt it :) Just thought someone else might be interested. Sure is windy.
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any tc making its way into the gom has alot of dry air and shear to deal with,95l just got destroyed by it,what makes anyone think those conditions will change,fat chance!,im guessing into nicaragua/hondurous...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Dazzling Orionid meteor shower due Saturday
Isn't the biggest meteor shower, but one 'definitely worth waking up for'





Early bird skywatchers set your alarms: The annual October meteor shower will peak before sunrise on Saturday as the Earth passes through a stream of leftover dust from the famous Halley's Comet.

The Orionid meteor shower promises to offer skywatchers with a dark sky and good weather up to 15 meteors per hour at its peak, according to a NASA forecast.


I do enjoy watching them however I dont think the weather is going to cooperate for us here in cayman.. ;-p
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Dazzling Orionid meteor shower due Saturday
Isn't the biggest meteor shower, but one 'definitely worth waking up for'





Early bird skywatchers set your alarms: The annual October meteor shower will peak before sunrise on Saturday as the Earth passes through a stream of leftover dust from the famous Halley's Comet.

The Orionid meteor shower promises to offer skywatchers with a dark sky and good weather up to 15 meteors per hour at its peak, according to a NASA forecast.
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Quoting ClaySFL:


I surely hope it's not another case of "Here we go again..."


Long ways away for sure. However, it's one of those times and one of those places that peak the interest of SFL.
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Quoting BullShoalsAR:

It may affect the Bahamas, but it likely won't have much of an impact on America.
If it gets this far[the Bahamas / TCI], it'll likely have brought some stormy weather to at least a few other locales, like the lesser and greater Antilles... Even Trinidad with its relatively small history of 'canes may get some TS type wx if it pulls together.

But in any case, this is all moot if it doesn't spin up to begin with.

You may also find you have a better experience on the blog if you were more specific with your AMERICA references.... as in, do you mean the entire double continent? North America? The CONUS? Given the fact that 97L hitting USVI or PR is not entirely to be ruled out, even saying the US is not as clear as you may think it is. If you continue with vague references, you are likely to get throwaway answers instead of a true engagement on the topic of the weather at hand.

BTW.... welcome to the blog.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That model cluster brings 96l near the highest TCHP values in the area. Hope there is at least 20knts of shear.


Lotsa Go Jo out there still for sure.


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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Surely a lot to hash out over the next few days however, models are rather tightly clustered to the NW Caribbean.



I surely hope it's not another case of "Here we go again..."
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Quoting Tazmanian:



your going too end up on a lot of bloger | Ignore if you keep saying that i cant talk for evere one us but i find it vary annyouing


Taz, if you don't like it, ignore. Quit acting like the blog police. A lot of people here are pretty tired of it.
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Quoting Patrap:
96L

Dynamic 18Z

That model cluster brings 96l near the highest TCHP values in the area. Hope there is at least 20knts of shear.
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kool song
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Quoting GerlindeEspinosa:

Oh brother--you mean to tell me your are actually using the LBAR and BAMM for guidance. LMAO.

Let's get a closed off low and then we'll talk, eh?


cat5hurricane? Has to be him.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.