Western Caribbean disturbance 96L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is beginning to show signs of organization. Some rotation is apparent, and the upper-level cirrus clouds streaming away from the center indicate that 96L is establishing an upper-level outflow channel to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited at present, because a large region of dry air to the east of 96L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. An ASCAT pass at 11:05 am EDT showed no signs of a surface circulation, with surface winds in the 25 - 30 mph range. Surface pressures are slowly falling at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Monday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow some modest development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east. The models are quite enthusiastic about developing 96L into a tropical depression, and our top four reliable models for forecasting genesis--the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS--have all been predicting formation of a tropical depression by Monday in one or more of their runs over the past day. 96L is in an area of weak steering currents, and will move little over the next three days. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The 12Z run of the GFS model and 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models predict 96L will develop into a tropical storm that hits Western Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday, and potentially affecting the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Bahamas as well. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model, which has 96L moving ashore on Tuesday over Nicaragua as a weak system. NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L Saturday afternoon.

I'll have a new post on Saturday, but might wait until the afternoon, when the hurricane hunter data becomes available.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Seastep:
And, what the heck are you doing up at this hour?

Genuinely curious about the V8's. I have a case in my fridge, but don't know beyond that.

it's 3:45pm here. you should be in bed.
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Quoting Seastep:


Seriously? Wow. It's not that cold here, not even close.


Yup. 31 actually.
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Quoting Seastep:


What's the V8's?

Next door neighbor just got back from a two month stint (business) in your neck of the woods. NZ. Haven't had a chance to discuss the experience. He got back yesterday.

This is the V8's I am watching on TV. It's up at the Gold Coast, got a few of your Indy car drivers and other international drivers, this is a special round.
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Quoting Seastep:


Seriously? Wow. It's not that cold here, not even close.


Right at freezing. I'm quite surprised.
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If I lived in SFla I would think about bumping up to Level 2.
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And, still want to know what a V8 is on the tele.

wumail me if you would aussie.

Goodnight/Good day.
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Wait, you're already midday. Duh.

Mine is over. Obviously tired.

Goodnight.

As a sign off, disgusted by those bashing Kori.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Crestview FL did reach freezing this morning.


Seriously? Wow. It's not that cold here, not even close.
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And, what the heck are you doing up at this hour?

Genuinely curious about the V8's. I have a case in my fridge, but don't know beyond that.
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Quoting Seastep:
I'm freezing my butt off.


Crestview FL did reach freezing this morning.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm sitting here watching the V8's on the Gold Coast on tv wearing only shorts. It's a lovely warm day here.


What's the V8's?

Next door neighbor just got back from a two month stint (business) in your neck of the woods. NZ. Haven't had a chance to discuss the experience. He got back yesterday.
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I'm still not sold on 96L. Positioning is problematic. Good thing is there is plenty of time to watch and see.

I like the nogaps solution.
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Quoting TampaSpin:

Where is the MJO atm?


Looks like it's exiting Africa on it's way towards Asia again
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Quoting Seastep:
I'm freezing my butt off.

I'm sitting here watching the V8's on the Gold Coast on tv wearing only shorts. It's a lovely warm day here.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Most models develop 96L and bring it over or near the Cayman Islands. Check out the weather report our local tv station put out this evening.

Link
Looks like I am going to have to be careful over ' open water ' LOL
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Well, I guess "freezing" is a bit strong, but it's way too cold for me.
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I'm freezing my butt off.
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Evening all........96L might become a big one it appears.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good night everyone. Been up since 4 so I am going to try to get some rest.


nite storm
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Good night everyone. Been up since 4 so I am going to try to get some rest.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Most models develop 96L and bring it over or near the Cayman Islands. Check out the weather report our local tv station put out this evening.

Link
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Quoting tropicfreak:


And I removed the offensive word and added something else.
Your to young to be on the *** every week.
Do you want a heart attack before 30?
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Quoting Kmanwoodie:


Nite all. We will see what the morning has in store for us.
Good night> At least we should have a better idea tomorrow about what is going on with it.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Tell that to JFV not us. It's not like Irene caused a lot of damage and killed individuals. Keep this nonsense off this blog and go mess around on your blog, it's that simple, it's no wonder some of our respected and reliable persons have left the blog because of people like you come on here to stir up chaos, now I have had enough of this! If you are a grown adult ACT LIKE ONE!!! If you are a 12 year old go bother your older sister.
We don't want him.
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My grandmother used to start baking lots of fruitcakes at this time of the year. She would say " Fruitcakes for the fruitcakes".
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok.


Nite all. We will see what the morning has in store for us.
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Quoting Kmanwoodie:


Off Walker's Road.
Ok.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Me too but if you can ignore the BS that comes out on here at times you can learn a lot here. I have. Where in Cayman do you live ? I am in East End.


Off Walker's Road.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


I love SFWMD model page, never needed anything else however, I wish they would scale the image to not include redundant points that zoom the image so far out that it's hard to determine which model your actually looking at. Fix that and it would be perfect....
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Quoting Kmanwoodie:


Today it was Sunset House.
LOL. I believe it.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Wouldn't surprise me a bit. I think he rides his bicycle through South Sound and looks at the sky to see what kind of weather we will have.


Today it was Sunset House.
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Quoting Kmanwoodie:


Thanks.....learning.
Me too but if you can ignore the BS that comes out on here at times you can learn a lot here. I have. Where in Cayman do you live ? I am in East End.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Time they will make their first penetration to the specified location of 13.5N 80W


Thanks.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Fix (I think) is when they "fix" the coc. Or confirm where it is.


Thanks.....learning.
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nobody is accusing the NHC of being manned by incompetents... yet.
Actually, on this very blog, there's been one or two here and there who in the heat of tropical cyclone emotion have declared us incompetent, or not interested, too busy eating lunch, or model drones, or too much this or too much that. It goes with the territory. Some enjoy the discourse here, though they tell me it seems to be in a lull of sorts.
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Quoting Kmanwoodie:


Thanks. What does fix mean?



Time they will make their first penetration to the specified location of 13.5N 80W

Trying to "Fix" the center. 13.5N 80W is where they believe the center will be at the time the plane arrives. Not that will be the exact center of course. FAA requires a destination point when filing a flight plan. That point however, can be modified en route.
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Quoting Kmanwoodie:


Thanks. What does fix mean?
Fix (I think) is when they "fix" the coc. Or confirm where it is.
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Quoting Kmanwoodie:





My thoughts exactly. Due to the storm being Sao close to us, if it develops and heads our way we don't have much time to prepare. Think I saw our weather man heading to happy hour @ 5 pm.
Quoting kmanislander


I do not believe that 97L is going to do much. It is very late in the year for something to develop and come up from where it is all the way through the Caribbean. 96L on the other hand could be anywhere from a strong TS to a Cat 3/4 system before reaching Cuba depending on track.

Models typically underestimate the intensity forecasts for late season systems in the NW Caribbean which tend towards RI. Paloma is a recent example of this and the TCHP in this area remains untapped. If it avoids the coast of Nicaragua it could become a very dangerous system as the motion will be slow through 96 hours.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Takeoff is 11:30am Eastern

Fix is 4:00pm Eastern


Thanks. What does fix mean?
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Obviously some concern there as they are heading down deep in the Caribbean for this one.
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Quoting Kmanwoodie:





My thoughts exactly. Due to the storm being Sao close to us, if it develops and heads our way we don't have much time to prepare. Think I saw our weather man heading to happy hour @ 5 pm.
Wouldn't surprise me a bit. I think he rides his bicycle through South Sound and looks at the sky to see what kind of weather we will have.
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Quoting Kmanwoodie:
Hi everyone,
Have not posted in a while, just lurking as usual.
I am really concerned about 96L. Recon planes here at the airport in Cayman as well. Anyone know when they are scheduled to go in? Had to cancel trip to Miami on Sunday. Hopefully everyone will get prepared over the weekend. Did not even see any mention on the local weather here this evening. Thank goodnees for the blog. Always have useful info on here. Kman, any thoughts for us in the next fees days?



Takeoff is 11:30am Eastern

Fix is 4:00pm Eastern
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Recon is scheduled to go in tomorrow. I don't think kman is on now but he says we need to watch this one close. I mentioned this morning how good(sarcasm) Radio Cayman and CITN keep us updated.





My thoughts exactly. Due to the storm being Sao close to us, if it develops and heads our way we don't have much time to prepare. Think I saw our weather man heading to happy hour @ 5 pm.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Has there been a recent ASCAT pass over 96L to see how things are going in the organization phase?
Not yet.
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I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 22/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 22/1530Z
D. 13.5N 80.0W
E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX SYSTEM AT 23/1800Z
NEAR 14.5N 80.5W.
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Has there been a recent ASCAT pass over 96L to see how things are going in the organization phase?
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Quoting Kmanwoodie:
Hi everyone,
Have not posted in a while, just lurking as usual.
I am really concerned about 96L. Recon planes here at the airport in Cayman as well. Anyone know when they are scheduled to go in? Had to cancel trip to Miami on Sunday. Hopefully everyone will get prepared over the weekend. Did not even see any mention on the local weather here this evening. Thank goodnees for the blog. Always have useful info on here. Kman, any thoughts for us in the next fees days?
Recon is scheduled to go in tomorrow. I don't think kman is on now but he says we need to watch this one close. I mentioned this morning how good(sarcasm) Radio Cayman and CITN keep us updated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.