Western Caribbean disturbance 96L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2011

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A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is beginning to show signs of organization. Some rotation is apparent, and the upper-level cirrus clouds streaming away from the center indicate that 96L is establishing an upper-level outflow channel to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited at present, because a large region of dry air to the east of 96L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. An ASCAT pass at 11:05 am EDT showed no signs of a surface circulation, with surface winds in the 25 - 30 mph range. Surface pressures are slowly falling at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Monday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow some modest development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east. The models are quite enthusiastic about developing 96L into a tropical depression, and our top four reliable models for forecasting genesis--the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS--have all been predicting formation of a tropical depression by Monday in one or more of their runs over the past day. 96L is in an area of weak steering currents, and will move little over the next three days. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The 12Z run of the GFS model and 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models predict 96L will develop into a tropical storm that hits Western Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday, and potentially affecting the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Bahamas as well. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model, which has 96L moving ashore on Tuesday over Nicaragua as a weak system. NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L Saturday afternoon.

I'll have a new post on Saturday, but might wait until the afternoon, when the hurricane hunter data becomes available.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting capelookout:

You're right about none of these storms getting anywhere near America. .

Excuse me, but America is anywhere from Canada to Argentina. I think you mean The United States of America.
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Quoting capelookout:

You're right about none of these storms getting anywhere near America.


America?

North America, Central America, or South America?

Be careful when saying America. Latin Americans are Americans as well, technically.
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174.

I got news for you also buddy. If you don't like it here, then by all means, no, as a matter of fact, I insist, don't the door hit you in the rear end on the way out, as its pretty obvious what deck your playing with here..
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The pressure at San Andres Island, Colombia is 29.76 and slowly falling.

Note: 29.76 inHg = 1007.79 or ~1007.8.
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Quoting BullShoalsAR:

Leave it alone man. Quoting it just fuels it. Over 10,000 posts and I'd expect a little more common sense from you.

Well then, why'd you like my post? :P

Yeah, I know I'm not supposed to quote people like that...but it happens sometimes.
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Quoting BackwoodsTN:
OMG. I love it. Today, we have a couple of puny invests that a couple models blow up to become big, bad, dangerous hurricanes. LOL.

You think you guys would learn be now. You dorks come out of the woodwork every chance you get whenever a computer models spits out a fantasy run for you--taking a cane toward America.

But I got news for you. No way the Caribbean disturbance gets as far North as Cuba, before being kicked away by the series of troughs and jet protecting the GOM.

And well, the other one...that'll end up being another Emily.

Next please...

Maybe you need to learn a thing or two before coming to post here.

Big, fat -1 for you.
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Sorry peeps about my rant on the NBC-rip off.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, tomorrow seems like a good time.

---

I've not done one of these in a while..

Q: What will the NHC give 96L at 8PM?


A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. Higher or lower

Q: What will the NHC give 97L at 8PM?

A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. 50%
E. Higher or lower


B and A
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Ewww TWC(Which I will not call them any more)has turned into a NBC news rip-off.Since when does the weather channel start caring about different foods/beers for fall?.And all of a sudden had an obsession for football??.And talk about stories unrealted to weather??.And to top it all off have videos on there site thats retared in so many ways.
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Quoting charlottefl:


A lot of the damage in Charley was from "mini swirls" , (high shear zones in the eyewall producing rotating vorticies with damage of greater intensity than the hurricane itself), similar to a tornado. You can do some research on it. Ted Fujita was the one who coined the term. All I know is the wind was intense. Down the road about a mile and a half they recorded a wind gust to 174 mph before the instrument failed, long before the lowest pressure was reached.


Yea, it was an eyewall vorticie that almost got the Doc on his trip into Hugo.

During hurricane Cleo, one of those came through the neighborhood while we were in the eyewall band. You could follow the damage for a block. A tree here, corner of a roof there, flipped a car, twisted two trees in the next door neighbors yard at the base and then tore the backside of our tree, and the one across the street etc... It was jumping up and down as it went, lucky it went over our house with definite spin damage on both sides.

I saw a lot of evidence of that after Andrew too. Lots.

I have always been wary about a storm spinning up just before landfal like Charlie, but to late to move. Didn't matter until I lived ON Indian river... I evacuated for Francis and Jeanne. No surge or erosion issues with Wilma so I stayed.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
158. There has been little change in organization in either system, so 60% on 96L and 20% on 97L seems pretty likely to me.


Sounds about right.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I agree with 96L and 97L(A.K.A twins) will probally be the last significant ones.After that we may still have the potential for a November hurricane but all I see for the rest of this season after Mid-November is sheared tropical systems.

Agreed.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

We might see a couple of storms after these two, but seems 96L and 97L will be the last significant ones IMO.
I agree with 96L and 97L(A.K.A twins) will probally be the last significant ones.After that we may still have the potential for a November hurricane but all I see for the rest of this season after Mid-November is sheared tropical systems.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Doesnt it look like in 97L a competing center?

97L is rather broad, and is still trying to get a dominant center.
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The thing is we could have two hurricanes or even one hurricane and one major. The item is that nothing really has been able to hold it together that far east, in reference to 97, if it does maintain itself it will get interesting. Looks like the Hunters have a busy weekend with both of them firing up, The thing is are there any Highs forecasted to move into either of the locations where these two are forming?
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Doesnt it look like in 97L a competing center?
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
97L Water Vapor


96L


Now tell me from Navy Water vapor imagery, which of these two systems appears to be more organized?

96L.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, tomorrow seems like a good time.

---

I've not done one of these in a while..

Q: What will the NHC give 96L at 8PM?


A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. Higher or lower

Q: What will the NHC give 97L at 8PM?

A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. 50%
E. Higher or lower
B for 96l and b for 97l
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158. There has been little change in organization in either system, so 60% on 96L and 20% on 97L seems pretty likely to me.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like what may become "Rina" will probally be the big finally of the season.And whatever becomes of 97L may become the closing out or conclusion.

We might see a couple of storms after these two, but seems 96L and 97L will be the last significant ones IMO.
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97L Water Vapor


96L


Now tell me from Navy Water vapor imagery, which of these two systems appears to be more organized?
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Quoting wn1995:


Which may not be too long. Looks like we may see it named late tonight or tomorrow.

Yeah, tomorrow seems like a good time.

---

I've not done one of these in a while..

Q: What will the NHC give 96L at 8PM?


A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. Higher or lower

Q: What will the NHC give 97L at 8PM?

A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. 50%
E. Higher or lower
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


1975: 27 tropical depressions, 9 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.



Very unusual. With modern data.. I'd be willing to bet the 1975 hurricane season would be more like 27 tropical depression, 18 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 majors.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon. Two invests now? Not surprising.
Looks like what may become "Rina" will probally be the big finally of the season.And whatever becomes of 97L may become the closing out or conclusion.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone ever notice from 1973 to 1977, each season had 20+ cyclones in the Atlantic, but only like 7 or 10 where named? Everything else was a tropical depression or sub-tropical, unbelievable.


1975: 27 tropical depressions, 9 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.

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Quoting indianrivguy:


I think you are both correct. As the track shifted east, so did the forecasts. They just didn't see the nudge east becoming a shove. Then the dang thing turned into an F-3 tornado 15 miles wide.



A lot of the damage in Charley was from "mini swirls" , (high shear zones in the eyewall producing rotating vorticies with damage of greater intensity than the hurricane itself), similar to a tornado. You can do some research on it. Ted Fujita was the one who coined the term. All I know is the wind was intense. Down the road about a mile and a half they recorded a wind gust to 174 mph before the instrument failed, long before the lowest pressure was reached.
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Good Afternoon. Two invests now? Not surprising.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone ever notice from 1973 to 1977, each season had 20+ cyclones in the Atlantic, but only like 7 or 10 where named? Everything else was a tropical depression or sub-tropical, unbelievable.
could we be possibly entering a period like that?.
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*WARNING* A link about global warming.

(Can't complain then ;) )

Link

But I was told it was only the government that cared?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its still early to be focusing on intensity...Lets wait until we have an actual system to track.


Which may not be too long. Looks like we may see it named late tonight or tomorrow.
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Quoting LargoFl:
LOL Tampa shields being readied
Tampa Bay is really safe if the first cone of danger has it in the cross-hairs. Sure miss then.

Even that little disturbance last week that was supposed to give TB lots of rain and moderate winds didn't make it. We shall see.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Top O' The Day!
Ominous GFS...
Well Rina is the predecescer of Rita.Lol.I hope they have nothing in common.
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Anyone ever notice from 1973 to 1977, each season had 20+ cyclones in the Atlantic, but only like 7 or 10 where named? Everything else was a tropical depression or sub-tropical, unbelievable.
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Surface map Hurricane Wilma. You can see the cold front blasting through Florida as Wilma was moving through.
That's why everyone enjoyed nice cool air right after Wilma's passing.
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looks like 96l is going through growing pains
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Who the hell is Charley?.Are you all talking about hurricane Charley,04?


SHHHHH lucreto is going to come out of his nest!
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We've been spoiled now for the past two hurricane seasons and potentially the third(If a La nina is going to form then that means it will probally be active) I would hate to see a El nino come around and spoil the fun for the people on the blog that like to track hurricanes.Lol.
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There are many old parks with old trailers and old people in St Pete. Many of those people did not heed the evacuations orders. Had Charley hit, there would have been major loss of life, not to mention the property devastation.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
whats ur predicted stregnth for future rina? what worries me is if it stalls in the carribean it will be over hot water and an anticyclone over the top which could induce RI. a cat 1 or 2 in florida could be possible. as of now im calling for a cat 1 in about 96 hours

Its still early to be focusing on intensity...Lets wait until we have an actual system to track.
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Quoting TropicTraveler:
I seem to remember Hurricane Charley was headed straight for Tampa then changed course at the last minute and headed for Port Charlotte. At the time I thought had it hit Tampa it would have been much more damaging and possibly loss of lives would have been greater.


I think you are both correct. As the track shifted east, so did the forecasts. They just didn't see the nudge east becoming a shove. Then the dang thing turned into an F-3 tornado 15 miles wide.

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Top O' The Day!
Ominous GFS...
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Charley is a perfect example of ,, "Watch the Storm in real time", as he didnt get the "Tampa" Landfall forecast as they have no Ears nor internet.
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What's amazing is how small and compact charley was compared to a storm like Wilma.
You could almost put Charly inside Wilma's eye at landfall in S.W. Fl.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its not really moving right now, but should drift northward as we head into the weekend.
whats ur predicted stregnth for future rina? what worries me is if it stalls in the carribean it will be over hot water and an anticyclone over the top which could induce RI. a cat 1 or 2 in florida could be possible. as of now im calling for a cat 1 in about 96 hours
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Who the hell is Charley?.Are you all talking about hurricane Charley,04?
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Yeah the second Charley started jogging north from Sanibel, I knew where he was going. One of those bad vibes you get.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone has a loop to see how 96L is moving if is moving at all? I ask because if it moves west,it will be buried in CA and it will be over.

Its not really moving right now, but should drift northward as we head into the weekend.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.