NOAA winter forecast: drought in Texas, wet in the Northwest and Ohio Valley

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:17 PM GMT on October 20, 2011

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The Southern Plains should prepare for continued drier and warmer than average weather, while the Pacific Northwest is likely to be colder and wetter than average from December through February, according to the annual Winter Outlook released October 20 by NOAA. We currently have weak La Niña conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that a large region of cooler than average waters exists along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. Cooler than average waters in this location tend to deflect the jet stream such that the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler and wetter winters than average, while the southern U.S. sees warmer and drier winter weather. NOAA's forecast calls for a typical La Niña winter over the U.S.--warm and dry over the Southern Plains, cool and wet over the Pacific Northwest, and wetter than average over the Ohio Valley. According to NOAA's latest La Niña discussion, La Niña is expected to remain solidly entrenched throughout the coming winter and into spring.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature and precipitation for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted by the Winter Outlook released October 20 by NOAA.

Grading last year's forecast
Last year, NOAA predicted: "The Pacific Northwest should brace for a colder and wetter than average winter, while most of the South and Southeast will be warmer and drier than average". This forecast did not verify for Northwest, which had a winter with near average temperatures and precipitation. The South and Southeast were indeed much drier than average, as predicted, but the Southeast was much colder than average, in contradiction to the forecast of a warm winter. Last year's winter forecast was thus was a poor one. The reason for its failure was that it only took into account the impacts of La Niña on the weather--and not the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.)

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the Eastern U.S., and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa. It should be noted that the NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO (and AO) since record keeping began in 1950. The NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963. The NAO and AO were again strongly negative last winter in December and January. These negative AO conditions were responsible for unusual cold weather and snows over Eastern North America and Europe the past two winters. Unfortunately, the AO is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance. Thus, the latest NOAA winter forecast warns: “The evolving La Niña will shape this winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “There is a wild card, though. The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Niña’s typical impacts.”

Winter and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns might be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published this month in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern: "low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions occurring during solar minimum. The coming winter of 2011 - 2012 will have a much increased level of solar activity (Figure 2), so we may speculate that a strongly negative AO and a cold winter in northern Europe and the United States is less likely.


Figure 2. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2011 shows that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008, and that solar activity has been rising sharply in recent months. The peak of the current solar cycle is forecast to arrive in May 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
NOAA's annual Arctic Report Card discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009 - 2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009 - 2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative AO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and strongly negative AO last winter. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2011 - 2012, since Arctic sea ice loss this year was virtually tied with 2007 as the greatest on record.


Figure 3. Observed temperature and precipitation departures from average during December - February for the last three winters with a La Niña event in the "weak" category: 1984 - 1985, 1995 - 1996, and 2000 - 2001. These winters tended to be much colder than average over most of the country, particularly in the Upper Midwest. Dry conditions occurred over the Southeast and Pacific coast, and wetter than average conditions in the Midwest. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What happened during the last three weak La Niña winters?
The last three winters with weak La Niña conditions occurred in 2000 - 2001, 1995 - 1996, and 1984 - 1985. These winters tended to be much colder than average over most of the country, particularly in the Upper Midwest (Figure 3.) Dry conditions were observed over the Southeast and Pacific coast, and wetter than average conditions in the Midwest. The winter of 1995 - 1996 featured a strongly negative NAO, and occurred during a minimum in the solar cycle. That winter featured many cold air outbreaks across the Eastern U.S., resulting in fifteen major cities setting new all-time seasonal snowfall total, including 75.6" at New York City's Central Park. A better analogue for the coming winter may be the winter of 2000 - 2001, since that winter occurred during a peak of the solar cycle, and Arctic sea ice loss was closer to what was observed this year. The winter of 2000 - 2001 had a negative AO in December, but positive in January and February. This led to very cold conditions with heavy snows in December, and relatively mild weather in January and February. Overall, the winter of 2000 - 2001 ranks as the 27th coldest since 1895.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I usually shrug and ask them to catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a random forecast. Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as there is too much that we don't know. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past two years, so perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter for temperatures. The one portion of the winter forecast that does have a high probability of being correct, though, is the forecast of dry conditions over Texas and surrounding states. Extreme droughts tend to be self-reinforcing, by creating high pressure zones around them that tend to deflect rain-bearing low pressures systems. The unpredictable AO doesn't affect weather patterns that much over Texas, so we can expect that the fairly predictable drying La Niña influence will dominate Texas' weather this winter.

For more information
Golden Gate Weather has a nice set of imagery showing historic La Niña winter impacts, based on whether it was a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" event.

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

A Western Caribbean disturbance worth watching
A large area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras. The heavy thunderstorms are in an area of weak steering currents, and will move little over the next two days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region, but is expected to drop to the moderate range on Friday, and remain moderate through the weekend. This should allow some slow development of the disturbance, and the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS models all develop the disturbance into a tropical depression by Monday. The most likely areas to be affected by this hypothetical storm are Honduras and Nicaragua, but we can't rule out a scenario where the storm moves northwards and threatens Cuba late next week, as the UKMET model is predicting. NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook.

Another area of disturbed weather near 12N 47W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles islands, is also being given a 10% of development by NHC. This disturbance has a respectable amount of spin, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is minimal. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. None of the models develops the disturbance, and recent satellite images show that the disturbance appears to be getting sheared apart. I doubt this disturbance will be around on Friday.

If there's not much change to the forecast for these disturbances on Friday, I'll leave the current post up until Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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403. stormpetrol
5:19 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
50%-60% at 2pm est
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
402. AvidWeatherHound
5:18 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
New Blog
Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
401. GTcooliebai
5:17 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Good Read about the 1921 Hurricane from NOAA

The morning of the event a small column on the front page of the Tampa Times was
dedicated to warning the public of the impending disaster. The final statement given by
Meteorologist W. J. Bennett at 11:30 on October 24, 1921 was that, “we are apparently in
the apparent path of the storm, but in the past in practically identical circumstances,
similar storms have always veered either to the north or the south of us, and probably this
one will do likewise.” Well we all know what happens next.

Link
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400. chrisdscane
5:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
look at the visisble to the east of the bolb is that a mid lvl or low lvl spin?
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399. klew136
5:13 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting FLWaterFront:


The October storms that hit Florida in the past DID NOT happen in years where strong cold fronts had previously moved through and crashed the sea surface temperatures.

I think some people forget that hurricanes need the high octane fuel that comes from very warm (even almost 'hot') water temperatures to maintain their strength
and surge northward out of the Caribbean Sea to smash into Florida and points north. When the water temps drop well below 80F, as it happening right now in the Gulf and Atlantic above Cuba, the hurricanes fizzle once they cross into that zone.

Anyone can find forecast models this time of year which develop a storm in the Caribbean and then smash it into Florida. Those models have not yet had the rapidly changing or evolving SST profiles installed into their analytical data stream.

It seems as if nearly every year models are predicting a major storm to attack Florida from the South. And yes, that can happen, even in late October.. in SOME years. But it only happens when the cold fronts have not yet begun to push that far south. The year of 2005 (Wilma) was a perfect example. Nothing at all in the way of cooler air had moved over South Florida yet in that year and the sea surface temps were still abnormally warm for late October.

But guess what? This year is quite the opposite. The fronts are on the march, big time and the water temps are plunging like a rock. But don't believe me, go look at the data yourselves.


I dont know why you directed this to me? I only was letting the person who posted Andrew as an Oct storm, that it was a Aug storm. I had no other comment to suggest anything else at all. I dont dispute whatsoever what you are saying.
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398. VAbeachhurricanes
5:09 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Happy rapture day everyone!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
397. FLWaterFront
5:01 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting whepton3:


It actually warms up in the next three days:

Miami NWS forecast:

REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 60 TO 64. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO
15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS 70 TO 74.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.


Yes but I was talking about the sea surface temps and what will happen there, not the air temps. Besides, that is the Miami NWS forecast and to get an accurate feel for the sea surface temperature trends one must look at the entire vast region, not just one tiny area at the southeastern-most corner of it.

The GFS model forecast is probably fairly accurate in terms of what may happen with 96L, at least through 144 hours. Beyond that I expect whatever forms with that system will be turning toward the NE in response to the approaching strong trough.

This is actually a common occurrence in the Western Caribbean not only in late October but also in November, for a hurricane to form south of Cuba, eventually cross Cuba and then quickly be shunted off to the NE or to the ENE as a rapidly weakening system. Caribbean Sea water temperatures never really cool down all that much but it is a far different story north of there.

And oddly enough, that same exact region often serves as a demarkation line for the atmosphere as well during this time of year. One often sees fronts stall out near Cuba or just south of there, with the highest wind shear being to the north and an entirely different atmospheric profile existing to the south.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 713
396. 7544
4:56 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
12Z GFS at 165 hours:



This run was more west of the last run.


yeap looks like the gfs has it just missing fla by a hair wait to see other runs could change stay tuned
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
395. stormpetrol
4:56 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 21 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-143

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 22/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 22/1530Z
D. 13.5N 80.0W
E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX SYSTEM AT 23/1800Z
NEAR 14.5N 80.5W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK....NEGATIVE.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
394. GTcooliebai
4:55 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Hurricane immunity: Indian blessings, iron deposits in the bay, ionic flux — there are many theories for why no hurricane has hit Tampa Bay since 1921. Jeff Masters of weatherunderground.com offers this: As the Earth rotates, three major bands of wind blow in alternating directions. In the tropics, the band moves east, and in the mid-latitudes area, the band moves west. Tampa Bay falls between those bands and that could shift storms away from us. Or, he adds, maybe we're just lucky. Did Dr. Masters really say this? Link
...Well anyways if he did, great explanation Doc. It would be nice to see a chart or map of the steering currents and sea surface temperatures for the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane, in that way we all could see what kind of a special set-up it takes for a storm to hit Tampa, and try to play with the different scenarios to see which is the most plausible for such an occurrence.
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393. stormpetrol
4:54 PM GMT on October 21, 2011


nice visible
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392. whepton3
4:49 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Look at this same map in about three days

Also, it is hard not to notice the little strips of blue beginning to show up far out to sea in the Gulf. And notice the sharp contrast between the Gulf temps and those in the Caribbean. And all of this data was from yesterday, whereas the water temperatures are on the downslide right now in response to a mountain of cool or cold high pressure overhead. In other words, each day the SSTs will be cooler than the day before, until at least Sunday/Monday when the trend should level off.

Another factor is what was posted above by someone else, which is the atmospheric profile. Next week, we are going to have yet another strong trough moving in, which will be followed by the coldest air mass of the season. Nighttime temperatures well down into the Florida Peninsula could be reaching record cold levels, as low as the mid-30s in some places.

All in all that spells doom for any tropical cyclone that tries to head northward into this buzz saw environment. However, a hurricane hitting Cuba is a much greater possibility, as usual for late October and November with Caribbean storms. And if so, look for it to be quickly shunted off to the ENE with the winds in the upper and middle levels of the atmosphere.


It actually warms up in the next three days:

Miami NWS forecast:

REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 60 TO 64. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO
15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS 70 TO 74.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
391. hurricane23
4:34 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
12Z GFS at 165 hours:



This run was more west of the last run.


Most euro ensembles have this drifting northward in time.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
390. Levi32
4:34 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, October 21st, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
389. SouthDadeFish
4:30 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
12Z GFS at 165 hours:



This run was more west of the last run.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
388. FLWaterFront
4:29 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting whepton3:
SST Map:



Water is warm enough to support a cyclone all the way to N. Florida.


Look at this same map in about three days

Also, it is hard not to notice the little strips of blue beginning to show up far out to sea in the Gulf. And notice the sharp contrast between the Gulf temps and those in the Caribbean. And all of this data was from yesterday, whereas the water temperatures are on the downslide right now in response to a mountain of cool or cold high pressure overhead. In other words, each day the SSTs will be cooler than the day before, until at least Sunday/Monday when the trend should level off.

Another factor is what was posted above by someone else, which is the atmospheric profile. Next week, we are going to have yet another strong trough moving in, which will be followed by the coldest air mass of the season. Nighttime temperatures well down into the Florida Peninsula could be reaching record cold levels, as low as the mid-30s in some places.

All in all that spells doom for any tropical cyclone that tries to head northward into this buzz saw environment. However, a hurricane hitting Cuba is a much greater possibility, as usual for late October and November with Caribbean storms. And if so, look for it to be quickly shunted off to the ENE with the winds in the upper and middle levels of the atmosphere.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 713
387. SouthDadeFish
4:21 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
12Z GFS at 132 hours:



the ridge is starting to erode as a trough moves in.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
386. SouthDadeFish
4:17 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
12Z GFS at 120 hours.....

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
385. SouthDadeFish
4:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
I just composed a blog entry on 96L for anyone who is interested.

You can find it here.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
384. CybrTeddy
4:09 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Love how people are screaming they're padding the numbers, and then you have storms like 93L. If they where padding numbers, why wasn't it named? Please. Its not the NHC padding numbers, they're doing their job, its the fact the Atlantic keeps on PRODUCING anemic, but classifiable, tropical cyclones. Get a grip.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
383. Neapolitan
4:07 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting OKJunkie:


Not news! The big questions are how much - questionable reliability of some data - and why.

But this is news; the results of the study were just released yesterday, and there truly are no big questions left to answer so far as it's concerned. The primary purpose of the BEST project was to validate (or invalidate) the temperature data previous gathered through the NOAA, NASA GISS, and HadCRU methodologies. Those final results say that the data have indeed been validated; the planet is warming, just as climate scientists have been saying for years that it has been.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13269
382. whepton3
4:05 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
SST Map:



Water is warm enough to support a cyclone all the way to N. Florida.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
381. Sfloridacat5
3:58 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
From a USA today interview about water temps and tropical storm formation.
This was the year of Hurricane Wilma.

Q: Were the Gulf of Mexico's water temperatures unusually warm this year? If so, is that why there were so many major hurricanes?

A: The Gulf of Mexico is shallower than the open ocean, so much like a backyard kiddie pool, it heats up quickly under the blazing summer sun. While preliminary data indicate that the Gulf water temperatures were slightly above normal this year, warm water is only one factor that can strengthen storms. In the cases of Katrina and Rita, and to a lesser extent, Wilma, these hurricanes strengthened rapidly in the Gulf not only because of warm Gulf waters, but also because of very favorable atmospheric conditions, such as low wind shear and upper-level high pressure.

That leads me to 95L.
95L just couldn't get its act together because of all the shear over the GOM. The water temps were warm enough for development but the shear was just too great.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4768
380. Dodabear
3:57 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting hurricane23:


Same here..


Hey "killer," good to see you.
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379. whepton3
3:55 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
Rina here we come. Yet ANOTHER golden opportunity for out friends at the NHC to pad numbers and over-exaggerate to justify an insane hurricane season projection earlier this year.

Look out Cayman...this one is poised for you. Cuba gonna feel the outer feeder bands as well, with a possible direct hit.

Should be noted though the this thing is not expected to hit America...so really not very much to be seen or to worry about here.

I guess another 7 or 8 months until next hurricane season. *sigh*

Next please...


Models uncertain about potential impact to CONUS.

Several DO indicate a significant threat to the Florida Peninsula, including the GEM and Euro.

96L is nearing a window conducive to development and intensification.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
378. OminousCloud
3:54 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Any computer solutions on 96L? if so, which was is supposed to head to?
Member Since: June 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 86
375. Tazmanian
3:51 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
Rina here we come. Yet ANOTHER golden opportunity for out friends at the NHC to pad numbers and over-exaggerate to justify an insane hurricane season projection earlier this year.

Look out Cayman...this one is poised for you. Cuba gonna feel the outer feeder bands as well, with a possible direct hit.

Should be noted though the this thing is not expected to hit America...so really not very much to be seen or to worry about here.

I guess another 7 or 8 months until next hurricane season. *sigh*

Next please...



POOF
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
374. Tropicsweatherpr
3:44 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
One thing I think may be helping 96L is forced convergence due to the shape of coastline surrounding 96L. This is a similar situation as to what we see on the Bay of Campeche. 96L has been slowly but steadily organizing over the past few days and if current trends continue I believe recon will find a TD/TS tomorrow. The center still appears to be somewhat broad, but should tighten up with time. Hopefully 96L stays far enough away from Central America that it doesn't dump its heavy rains over the region. I'm afraid this won't be the case.


Agree 100% on all of what you said.Let's see how it all pans out.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13292
372. hurricane23
3:42 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting alvarig1263:


Well I'm not gonna change my ISP completely to get one site working that'll eventually probably fix itself. lol ;-)


Hopefully whatever is the issue it gets fixed.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
371. ycd0108
3:42 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
237,294,300:
I don't see any trolls taking the bait yet
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 170 Comments: 4401
370. hurricane23
3:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting kwgirl:
Yeah, AT&T, Sprint, any other ISP :)


Have att&t on my iphone but in terms of comcast is there anywere around this?
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
369. SouthDadeFish
3:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
One thing I think may be helping 96L is forced convergence due to the shape of coastline surrounding 96L. This is a similar situation as to what we see on the Bay of Campeche. 96L has been slowly but steadily organizing over the past few days and if current trends continue I believe recon will find a TD/TS tomorrow. The center still appears to be somewhat broad, but should tighten up with time. Hopefully 96L stays far enough away from Central America that it doesn't dump its heavy rains over the region. I'm afraid this won't be the case.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
368. 12george1
3:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting klew136:

hurricane andrew was aug 24

Hurricane Andrew was also never in the Caribbean
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
367. alvarig1263
3:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting kwgirl:
Yeah, AT&T, Sprint, any other ISP :)


Well I'm not gonna change my ISP completely to get one site working that'll eventually probably fix itself. lol ;-)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
366. kwgirl
3:36 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting hurricane23:


Also have comcast..any fix to this?
Yeah, AT&T, Sprint, any other ISP :)
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
365. hurricane23
3:35 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting alvarig1263:


Yeah, the guys at the NHC posted a few minutes ago on their Facebook page when I asked that it might be my ISP. I'm using Comcast here in (Naples) SW FL. All other sites I have accessed since last night have all been working fine, except for any links that include www.hurricanes.gov or
www.nhc.noaa.gov


Also have comcast..any fix to this?
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
364. alvarig1263
3:30 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting kwgirl:
It may be your carrier???


Yeah, the guys at the NHC posted a few minutes ago on their Facebook page when I asked that it might be my ISP. I'm using Comcast here in (Naples) SW FL. All other sites I have accessed since last night have all been working fine, except for any links that include www.hurricanes.gov or www.nhc.noaa.gov
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
363. WeatherNerdPR
3:30 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Good morning. 96L looks good.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
362. FLWaterFront
3:30 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting klew136:

hurricane andrew was aug 24


The October storms that hit Florida in the past DID NOT happen in years where strong cold fronts had previously moved through and crashed the sea surface temperatures.

I think some people forget that hurricanes need the high octane fuel that comes from very warm (even almost 'hot') water temperatures to maintain their strength
and surge northward out of the Caribbean Sea to smash into Florida and points north. When the water temps drop well below 80F, as it happening right now in the Gulf and Atlantic above Cuba, the hurricanes fizzle once they cross into that zone.

Anyone can find forecast models this time of year which develop a storm in the Caribbean and then smash it into Florida. Those models have not yet had the rapidly changing or evolving SST profiles installed into their analytical data stream.

It seems as if nearly every year models are predicting a major storm to attack Florida from the South. And yes, that can happen, even in late October.. in SOME years. But it only happens when the cold fronts have not yet begun to push that far south. The year of 2005 (Wilma) was a perfect example. Nothing at all in the way of cooler air had moved over South Florida yet in that year and the sea surface temps were still abnormally warm for late October.

But guess what? This year is quite the opposite. The fronts are on the march, big time and the water temps are plunging like a rock. But don't believe me, go look at the data yourselves.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 713
361. OKJunkie
3:30 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting pottery:
A new study by an Independent group of US Scientists has concluded that the Earth is Warming......

How very strange!


Not news! The big questions are how much - questionable reliability of some data - and why.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
360. kwgirl
3:26 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting alvarig1263:


www.hurricane.gov not working either. And using a different browser doesn't solve it either.
It may be your carrier???
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
359. alvarig1263
3:25 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting FLHurricaneHunter:
Agree... Chrome is great.... I use it and no problems



www.hurricane.gov not working either. And using a different browser doesn't solve it either.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
358. Tazmanian
3:22 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
AL, 96, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 800W, 25, 1008, LO,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
357. Tropicsweatherpr
3:20 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting hurricane23:


Same here..


I dont know if it has to do with location,but here in Puerto Rico,I have no problem going to that site.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13292
356. hurricane23
3:16 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting alvarig1263:
Is the NHC website down for anyone else??? Keeps saying Internet Explorer can't display the webpage, while all other websites are working.


Same here..
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
355. CybrTeddy
3:15 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Blog updates return!!
Blog updates return! 96L in the SW Caribbean a future threat. 10/21/11
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
354. klew136
3:10 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
Quoting eddye:
stillwaiting u are wrong we got wilma in late october remember and also hurricane andrew and that is where most of the storms come from in october the carribean that hit fl

hurricane andrew was aug 24
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
353. scott39
3:05 PM GMT on October 21, 2011
96L looks like it may be the TC we been waiting on, to come out of the Caribbean in the late season.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.