95L could develop into a depression and affect Western Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2011

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A large low pressure system centered over the eastern Yucatan peninsula, near Mexico's Cozumel Island (Invest 95L), is bringing heavy rains to Western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central and Western Cuba since October 9, according to radar rainfall estimates from the Key West Radar. Heavy rains have also affected portions of the Florida Keys; a personal weather station on Plantation Key recorded 2.28" of rain so far this weekend. Satellite loops show that 95L does not have a well-formed surface circulation, but the storm does have a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in intensity and areal coverage. Surface observations in the Western Caribbean reveal that 95L has a broad counter-clockwise circulation. A ship in the Yucatan Channel recorded sustained winds of 44 mph this morning, and another ship measured sustained winds of 39 mph about 30 miles southwest of Key West, but no land stations are reporting winds over 30 mph. Water temperatures over the regions are near 29°C, which is plenty warm to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Wind shear over 95L is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range over the next three days. This should allow 95L a decent chance to develop into a tropical depression, once it pulls away from the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. NHC is giving the system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and has scheduled a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the system on Monday afternoon. I'd put the odds of development higher, at 70%. All of the models are showing only weak development of 95L. The storm is currently moving northwest, but should turn north and then northeast by Tuesday, as it gets sucked into an approaching trough of low pressure. This trough should pull 95L into the west coast of Florida on Tuesday, and the southwest portion of Florida could receive up to 6 inches of rain from 95L. Once 95L meets up with the trough, wind shear will rise sharply, and it is unlikely 95L will be able to grow any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm before landfall occurs along the west coast of Florida. It is more likely that 95L will have top winds of 35 - 45 mph at landfall on Tuesday.

Another area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Atlantic, 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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811. aspectre
6:22 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
deleted, wrong blog
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
810. weatherbro
6:17 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1330
809. Chicklit
3:21 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
What will be not funny is if the forecasted wind shear over 95L acts to wrap around it and it intensifies on its way to Florida.

LinkShearMap

It does, however, currently look to be getting "smooshed" with the low exposed to the west of convection.
LinkWVLoopGOM
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11358
808. TampaSpin
2:29 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
807. wayne0224
2:27 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting MahFL:


More like 88.78.....


Your center lookes like a mid level vort rotating around a stronger low to its NE
Member Since: December 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
806. Sfloridacat5
2:27 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7557
805. MahFL
2:23 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:
The LLC is located at 23N 87W


More like 88.78.....


Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3578
804. wayne0224
2:21 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
forget about that naked swirl. remember that a new COC can reform easily under the heaviest convection.
That "swirl" is just that i've been seeing that since yesterday. its not the true LLC.
Member Since: December 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
803. Sfloridacat5
2:20 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting scott39:
Is that the Nams most futher N model?


I'm running the western North Atlantic/S.E.

But if you run the North American model run, you get the same placement of the low. You just get a few further north.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7557
802. wilburo33
2:18 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
How does one find out where the new "home" is located?

Quoting BeanTech:


Yeah....

The new "home" where all the regulars went is quite active though....so no big loss.

Member Since: August 30, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
801. scott39
2:18 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Taffy combining with a strong front equals a sticky situation
HaHa Good one!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
800. WeatherfanPR
2:18 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
forget about that naked swirl. remember that a new COC can reform easily under the heaviest convection.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1590
799. FLWeatherFreak91
2:17 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting scott39:
It will be Taffy soon..... Its has a window of about 24 to 36 hours to develope.
Taffy combining with a strong front equals a sticky situation
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
798. Sfloridacat5
2:17 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
NAM at 42 hours.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7557
797. scott39
2:16 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
NAM at 39 hours (landfalling system)
Is that the Nams most futher N model?
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796. Seflhurricane
2:16 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Very good bet we will have ts Rina later today
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
795. scott39
2:14 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:


This is why it's not classified... lol
It will be Taffy soon..... Its has a window of about 24 to 36 hours to develope.
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794. Sfloridacat5
2:13 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
NAM at 39 hours (landfalling system)
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7557
793. FLWeatherFreak91
2:11 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting scott39:
Do you see that NNW to NW movement in the last couple of frames?
Quoting 7544:
and the blob looks to be on the move to ene now


This is why it's not classified... lol
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792. Sfloridacat5
2:11 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
12z, NAM at 36 hours
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791. FLWeatherFreak91
2:10 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting 7544:
and the blob looks to be on the move to ene now
Yep. All of this will be pulled a little further north as the front comes down to meet it though.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
790. scott39
2:09 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:
The LLC is located at 23N 87W
Do you see that NNW to NW movement in the last couple of frames?
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789. 7544
2:09 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
and the blob looks to be on the move to ene now
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
788. TampaSpin
2:08 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting BeanTech:


Yeah....

The new "home" where all the regulars went is quite active though....so no big loss.



What site did many go too.......i'm sure i got it booked marked but to find it would be a challenge.......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
787. FLWeatherFreak91
2:08 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
I work at a hotel and have held a couple of rooms tomorrow night for any employees that may need to stay the night instead of driving in the weather. Many commute across the Bay and may have trouble with that if the bridges happen to close.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
786. 7544
2:07 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
in the meantime 95l is getting larger in size and is trying to tighten up imo
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
785. TampaSpin
2:06 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I see what you mean. And I also notices that the naked swirl just to the north of the yucatan seems to be dropping sw a little, indicating that it is rotating around a stronger low off to its east.


Exactly.....Correct......some was getting that confused with the bigger pic.....when you speed up a loop...it tells one a great deal where the LLC actually by making it very easy to see.
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784. TampaSpin
2:04 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
The LLC is located at 23N 87W
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
783. FLWeatherFreak91
2:03 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:
The LLC is actually just on the Western edge of the deep convection.
I see what you mean. And I also notices that the naked swirl just to the north of the yucatan seems to be dropping sw a little, indicating that it is rotating around a stronger low off to its east.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
782. Sfloridacat5
2:03 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
12z, NAM at 27 hours
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781. scott39
2:02 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting FookyMonster:


Just curious. that's cold!
Yea, I was suprised to see cold this early in the fall.
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779. FLWeatherFreak91
2:01 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

.UPDATE...
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. AN AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS EXPECTED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT THEY FIND.
EITHER WAY DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TODAY WITH
THE SHIELD OF RAIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN ZONES GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS LIGHT...
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE AT TIMES...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE RAIN IS
FALLING AND MAY ONLY MAKE IT TO NEAR 80 OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY THICKENING. WILL MAKE THESE TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST AND ALSO RAISE RAIN CHANCE
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
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778. TampaSpin
2:01 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
The LLC is actually just on the Western edge of the deep convection.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
777. scott39
2:01 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
The broad COC of 95L seem to be moving more NW to NNW on the visible Sat. The visible is always best for this rookie to use during the day.
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776. FLWeatherFreak91
2:00 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:
Maybe you don't know what you are looking at.........if you are looking at that one little bitty spinner on the Western side that is not the LLC........speed up the loop then you can see it!
Ok, I'll take another look.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
775. TampaSpin
2:00 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting Buhdog:
Agree Tampa Spin. How is the wind up there? It really crashed here in swfl...barely a breeeze! WTH is that about?
Maybe since it has traveled west?



That is the reason why its not be claimed a TD yet...its not very strong.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
774. FookyMonster
2:00 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting scott39:
My local Chief Met on channel 15. Why, have heard something different?


Just curious. that's cold!
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773. FLWeatherFreak91
1:59 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
I think the NHC is assuming any true center will form underneath the heaviest convection since the red circle they drew doesn't even encompass the area where Mah found the naked swirl.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
772. wayne0224
1:59 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
East north south west. the one thing that is gonna happen Is rain rain rain. its been raining here in southwest florida all morning. second this is not gonna be a bad storm our afternoon thunderstorms pack more of a punch. Reguardless of where the "swirl" is moveing there are many at this point and the only place for this whole mess to go is North East the front Is gonna pick this mess up and its gone Thursday.
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771. TampaSpin
1:58 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Maybe you don't know what you are looking at.........if you are looking at that one little bitty spinner on the Western side that is not the LLC........speed up the loop then you can see it!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
770. FLWeatherFreak91
1:57 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting Buhdog:
Agree Tampa Spin. How is the wind up there? It really crashed here in swfl...barely a breeeze! WTH is that about?
Maybe since it has traveled west?
5 mph wind in Tampa lol.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
769. Buhdog
1:56 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Agree Tampa Spin. How is the wind up there? It really crashed here in swfl...barely a breeeze! WTH is that about?
Maybe since it has traveled west?
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
768. TampaSpin
1:56 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
How do you figure? It looks to me that the center and convection are moving in nearly opposite directions lol.


LMAO back at you then......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
767. 10Speed
1:55 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Well, here in Sebring the rain stretched the width of Florida about 10 miles south of here a couple of hours ago but no rain here. Now that line is about 30 miles south of here and is showing signs of drifting even further southward.
Member Since: June 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
766. FLWeatherFreak91
1:55 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin:
The LOW LEVEL CENTER is trying to duck back under the deeper convection it seems.......HOPE this does not continue or things could get a little messy.
How do you figure? It looks to me that the center and convection are moving in nearly opposite directions lol.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
765. TampaSpin
1:53 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
It sad to see how slow the Dr.'s blog has become even when a system is in the GOM......gotta say that he and his crew has caused this......JUST SAYN
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764. Sfloridacat5
1:52 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
We still may get the center to reform under this convection. Many of the models were showing this split occurring and two separate lows riding the front into fl.





Yes, some of the models were showing that. We could see a new low form further north.
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763. TampaSpin
1:51 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
The LOW LEVEL CENTER is trying to duck back under the deeper convection it seems.......HOPE this does not continue or things could get a little messy.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
762. scott39
1:49 PM GMT on October 17, 2011
Quoting FookyMonster:


What's your source on that low temp in Mobile?
My local Chief Met on channel 15. Why, have heard something different?
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761. TampaSpin
1:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2011



The BAM MOdels are in pretty good agreement!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.